MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 8th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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National League
Cardinals @ Marlins
Martinez is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts (over 2-2-2); he is 0-2, 6.97 on road.
Conley is 1-1, 18.00 in his last two starts (over 5-0).
St Louis won its last six road games; they’re 4-6 in series openers, 1-3 on road. Over is 12-2-1 in their last 15 games. Miami lost nine of last 12 games; four of last five at home- they’re 3-8 in series openers, 1-3 at home. Under is 3-1 in their last four home games.
Giants @ Mets
Moore is 0-3, 9.45 in his last four starts; he is 0-3, 14.92 on the road. Over is 3-3 in his starts this year.
deGrom is 2-1, 5.60 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.
Giants lost last three games, are 2-8 in last 10 road games; they’re 5-5 in series openers, 2-4 on road. Mets won three of last four games, are 6-4 in series openers, 2-4 at home. Over is 11-1 in their last dozen games.
Cubs @ Rockies
Arrieta is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts, all of which went over.
Senzatela is 4-1, 3.08 in six starts this year; his last three starts went over.
Cubs played an extra inning game at home last nite; they’re 3-7 in series openers, 2-3 on road. Colorado won four of its last five games; they’re 7-3 in series openers. Last four Rockies games stayed under.
Pirates @ Dodgers
Williams is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-2, 6.66 in 13 MLB games (one start). He allowed 8 runs in 11.2 IP in six MLB games this season.
McCarthy is 3-0, 3.10 in his five starts this year (under 3-2).
Pittsburgh lost four of last five road games; they’re 5-6 in series openers. Last four Pirate games stayed under. Dodgers won seven of last nine games; they’re 4-6 in series openers, 3-2 at home. Four of their last five games went over.
American League
Indians @ Blue Jays
Bauer is 2-3, 7.67 in five starts this year (over 3-1-1).
Stroman is 1-2, 4.64 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in his last four).
Indians won three of last four games, are 4-6 in series openers, 3-3 on road. Under is 9-0 in Indians’ last nine road games. Toronto is 4-7 in its last 11 games, 0-4 in home series openers (5-1 in home openers). Under is 8-4 in their home games.
Royals @ Rays
Karns is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts (under 4-1).
Snell is 0-1, 4.78 in five starts this year (over 4-1).
Royals lost three of last four games, scoring seven runs; they’re 4-6 in series openers, 3-3 at home. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Tampa Bay is 3-5 in its last eight home games, 5-6 in series openers, 2-4 at home. Under is 7-2 in Rays’ last nine games.
Angels @ A’s
Nolasco is 2-0, 3.94 in his last three starts (over 3-3).
Graveman is 0-3, 5.65 in his last three starts (under 3-2).
Angels lost four of last five games, are 5-5 in series openers, 2-3 on road- their last three road games went over. Trout (leg) sat out three of last four games. Oakland lost nine of last 13 games, but had walk-off wins the last two days; over is 8-1 in their last nine games.
Interleague
Nationals @ Orioles
Gonzalez is 3-0, 2.11 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
Gausman is 0-3, 11.40 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Nationals won four of last five games, are 4-1 in road series openers. Under is 4-1 in their last five games. Harper (leg) sat out the last three games. Baltimore won its last four games, is 5-0 in home series openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Bronx @ Cincinnati
Tanaka is 4-0, 2.51 in his last four starts (over 4-2).
Davis is 1-1, 7.98 in four starts this year (over 3-0-1).
New York played in Chicago late last nite; they’re 6-4 in series openers, 2-3 on road. Over is 9-1 in last 10 New York games. Cincinnati won its last five games; they’re 5-5 in series openers, 3-3 at home. Over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
Rangers @ Padres
Martinez is 0-1, 5.40 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Cahill is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts (over 4-1).
Rangers lost seven of last nine road games, are 4-6 in series openers, 2-3 on road. Four of their last six games went over. San Diego lost its last four games, is 4-6 in series openers, 3-2 at home. Over is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Mia: Martinez 3-3; Conley 3-2
SF-NY: Moore 1-5; deGrom 3-3
Chi-Colo: Arrieta 4-2; Senzatela 5-1
Pitt-LA: Williams 0-0; McCarthy 4-1
American League
Clev-Tor: Bauer 2-3; Stroman 2-4
KC-TB: Karns 2-3; Snell 2-3
LAA-A’s: Nolasco 3-3; Graveman
Interleague
Wsh-Balt: Gonzalez 5-1; Gausman 3-4
NY-Cin: Tanaka 4-2; Davis 3-1
Tex-SD: Martinez 1-2; Cahill 3-
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Mia: Martinez 2-6; Conley 3-5
SF-NY: Moore 2-4; deGrom 1-6
Chi-Colo: Arrieta 3-6 (3 of last 3); Senzatela 3-6
Pitt-LA: Williams 0-0; McCarthy 4-1
American League
Clev-Tor: Bauer 1-5; Stroman 1-6
KC-TB: Karns 3-5; Snell 0-5
LAA-A’s: Nolasco 3-6; Graveman
Interleague
Wsh-Balt: Gonzalez 4-6; Gausman 2-7
NY-Cin: Tanaka 2-6; Davis 1-4
Tex-SD: Martinez 1-3; Cahill 3-2
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Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals play two games at Camden Yards starting Monday then complete the home-home series with two at Nationals Park starting Wednesday.
Since 2013, Orioles have dominated the Beltway series winning thirteen of eighteen encounters. In Baltimore the O's have won 6 of 9 low scoring games (2-7 O/U) and in the Nation's Capital Birds have won 7 of 9 high scoring affairs (6-2-1 O/U).
Red-hot Orioles host Nationals
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Orioles will be going for their fifth straight win when they host the Nationals on Monday.
Both Washington and Baltimore are playing well heading into this series, as the Nationals are 6-4 in their past 10 contests and the Orioles have won four straight. Washington most recently faced Philadelphia in a three-game set, and the Nats won two games for a second consecutive three-game series. The Orioles, meanwhile, hosted the White Sox last series, and Baltimore swept Chicago in a four-game set. The starters in this Monday matchup are going to be LHP Gio Gonzalez (3-0, 1.64 ERA, 34 K) for Washington and RHP Kevin Gausman (1-3, 7.55 ERA, 20 K) for Baltimore. Gausman should be well rested for this appearance, as he was ejected after only one inning of work against the Red Sox on May 3. He certainly needed that extra rest as well. It has been a rough season for the righty, and he’ll hope that he can turn things around here. One trend that stands out when looking at this one is that Washington is an impressive 11-1 against the money line in road games against teams allowing 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game this season. OF Bryce Harper (Groin) is, however, questionable for the Nats, and that would be a huge loss for the team.
The Nationals have dealt with quite a few injuries recently, but they are still on a two-series winning streak. They’ll now look to get this one started off the right way, and Gio Gonzalez will be out there trying to earn the win. The lefty veteran has been outstanding this season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in all six of his starts on the year. If he can avoid giving up multiple homers against a powerful Orioles lineup then the Nationals will have a shot on Monday. Offensively, it’d be big if OF Bryce Harper (.376 BA, 9 HR, 27 RBI) is back out there. He was close to returning on Sunday, so it’s likely he’ll give it a go. Harper is on pace for a career year for Washington, so his return would be exciting for the rest of this lineup. Another guy that should help him provide some runs is 2B Daniel Murphy (.341 BA, 5 HR, 28 RBI). Murphy has continued to be an elite hitter, as evidenced by his absurdly high batting average. He also happens to be hot coming into this one, and it’s likely that will continue against a struggling Gausman.
Kevin Gausman was wrongfully ejected from his most recent start against the Red Sox, but that might have served him well moving forward. Gausman had a little bit of time to recharge the batteries and focus on this start, which is a big one for the righty. The Nationals are one of the best teams in baseball, so Gausman is going to need to be on his game here. It’s big that he limits his walks here, as he has walked two or more batters in all of his starts but the shortened last one. That’s not a good thing considering the fact that he has allowed two or more homers in two of his past three as well. Offensively, two guys that might help Gausman in this one are OF Adam Jones (.268 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI) and 3B Manny Machado (.237 BA, 8 HR, 21 RBI). While Jones is just 6-for-25 against Gonzalez in his career, he does have a homer off of the lefty. Machado, meanwhile, is an impressive 4-for-10 against the pitcher. He also happens to be hitting a bit better coming into this one. He had struggled earlier in the year.
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Double-Play Picks
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 8.5)
The Indians head north of the border to Toronto for a rematch of last October's American League Championship series against the Blue Jays on Monday night.
The Tribe handled the Jays four-games-to-one in last year's playoffs, but many things are different about these two teams early in the 2017 season. Neither offense has been good during the opening month of the season with both clubs ranking in the bottom half of Major League Baseball in total offense and both teams currently sit with only 33 home runs hit this season - a full 20 home runs behind the Milwaukee Brewers.
This game will mark the return to Toronto of former Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion who has struggled early this season and, hopefully, he keeps his revenge ideas in his back pocket for, at least, one night. #NoParrotMonday
The last time Indians' starter Trevor Bauer started at Rogers Centre he was fresh off an unfriendly meeting with a drone and lasted only 21 pitches before having to be removed from the game, leaving only a trail of blood in his wake. Bauer has something to prove Monday night.
The Under has cashed in 11 of Cleveland's last 13 road games (11-1-1) and the last six meetings between these two teams have finished Under the total.
Pick: Under 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (+110, 8 )
With the Cubs struggling early in the 2017 season, and the Cincinnati Reds not fooling anyone into believing they are for real in the National League Central, the Cardinals have their sights set on another division crown. It's only early May - too early to be talking about division titles - but the Cards have been on a nice roll after getting off to a horrible start (13-5 over their last 18 games).
The Redbirds roll into Miami with their ace on the mound and the Marlins will counter with...well...not their ace.
Carlos Martinez has put together back-to-back solid outings including a 7.1 inning, four-hit performance against the Brewers in his last start. Marlins' Adam Conley, on the other hand, has allowed 14 runs over his last two starts including a less-than-electric 1.2 inning, nine earned run performance in his last start at home.
The Cardinals have won their last six road games and the Marlins have lost their last five games against right-handed starters, their last seven series openers, and four of their last five home games.
Pick: Cardinals -125
Yesterday: 1-0-1
Season: 26-20-2
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (3-0, 1.64 ERA, $338)
The 2017 rebirth of Nationals' Gio Gonzalez continues. He owns a win/loss record of 3-0 to go along with a very tidy 1.64 earned run average in six starts this season. He also has a team win/loss record of 5-1 (should be 6-0 if the Nats' bullpen wasn't so combustible).
Gio draws an interleague start against the rival Orioles in Baltimore on Monday night and the Nats are currently listed as slight dogs at -105.
Slumping: Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants (1-4, 6.75 ERA, $-442)
Remember back in 2013 when Matt Moore was good? It seems like forever, and many arm issues, since going 17-4 as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Moore is off to a horrible start to the 2017 season with a team win/loss record of only 1-5 and a chubby WHIP of 1.56.
If those numbers weren't bad enough, over his last three starts he has a team win/loss record of 0-3, a 10.05 ERA, and a 1.81 WHIP. Not good Matty-boy.
Moore and his Giants are currently listed as +135 underdogs today in Queens against the dysfunctional Mets.
Monday's Top Trends
* Over is 17-4 in the Chicago Cubs' last 21 overall. Total of 11 tonight @ Rockies.
* The Kansas City Royals are 0-8 in their last 8 road games. +135 today @ Rays.
* Under is 9-0 in the Baltimore Orioles' last 9 interleague home games. Total of 9 vs Nationals.
* Over is 12-3 in the Cincinnati Reds' last 15 overall. Total of 8.5 vs. Yankees.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
There will be thunderstorms in the Denver area for most of the day Monday. It's tough to predict when and where these will develop, but there is nothing the Chicago Cubs need more than a rain-out after playing 18 innings last night, burning their entire bullpen, and then having to travel to Denver to play the Rockies today.
Not much in the way of wind to talk about today. There will be a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to center field in Oakland for the Angels and A's tonight, however the wind doesn't usually have a big impact on ball flight at the Oakland Coliseum.