National League
Brewers @ Marlins
Peralta is 2-3, 8.10 in six starts this year (over 5-1).
Fernandez is 3-0, 3.18 in his last three home starts (over 3-3).
Milwaukee is 5-3 in its last eight games; over is 8-1-3 in their last 12. Marlins won 11 of last 14 games but lost last two-- over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
Pirates @ Reds
Niese is 1-1, 8.80 in his last three starts (over 5-1).
Straily is 1-1, 3.68 in four starts (over 2-2).
Pittsburgh won six of last seven road games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Reds are 5-12 in last 17 games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 11 home games.
Padres @ Cubs
Vargas is 0-2, 1.10 in three starts this year (under 2-1).
Lester is 3-1, 3.58 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
San Diego lost seven of last nine road games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Cubswon seven games in a row; over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
De la Rosa is 2-1, 2.41 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under.
Chatwood is 3-1, 1.07 in his last four starts (under 6-0). .
Arizona won its last three games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Rockies lost its last five home games; six of their last eight home games stayed under.
Mets @ Dodgers
Matz is 4-0, 0.67 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under.
Kazmir is 1-2, 5.82 in his last four starts (over 3-1-1 last five starts).
New York won eight of last 11 road games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Dodgers lost six of last seven at home; under is 9-3-1 in their home games.
American League
Royals @ Bronx
Young is 1-4, 5.76 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
Nova is making his first '16 start; he is 47-34, 4.35 in 103 MLB starts; this year, he is 1-1, 5.14 in six relief stints (14 IP).
New York won won four of last six home games; eight of its last 10 games stayed under total. Royals lost nine of their last 11 road games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games.
A's @ Red Sox
Gray is 2-3, 6.04 in his last five starts, last four of which went over.
Buchholz is 0-2, 5.09 in three home starts; three of his last four starts stayed under.
Oakland lost 11 of its last 15 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Boston won 12 of its last 16 games; seven of their last ten games stayed under total
White Sox @ Rangers
Gonzalez allowed five runs in 5.1 IP (113 PT) in his first '16 start. .
Lewis is 2-0, 3.00 in his last five starts; his last three starts stayed under.
Texas won eight of last ten home games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 home games. Chicago won 14 of last 19 games; six of their last seven road games went over.
Indians @ Astros
Kluber is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts (over 3-3).
Fiers is 2-0, 4.76 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). .
Cleveland won five of its last six games; its last three road games stayed under total. Houston won four of its last six games; over is 9-5-1 in its last 15.
Orioles @ Twins
Wilson is 1-1, 4.60 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
Berrios is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts this year (over 1-0-1).
Baltimore is 7-4 in its last 11 games; five of its last six road games stayed under total. Minnesota lost nine of last ten games; five of its last seven home games went over.
Rays @ Mariners
Moore is 0-3, 7.00 in his last three starts (under 3-2-1).
Hernandez is 1-0, 0.00 (14.2 IP) in two home starts this year (under 5-1). .
Mariners won 13 of their last 18 games; five of their last seven home games stayed under total. Tampa Bay won its last four games; nine of its last 11 games went under the total.
Interleague
Tigers @ Nationals
Sanchez is 1-3, 8.10 in his last four starts (over 4-1-1).
Strasburg is 5-0, 2.36 in six starts (over 4-1-1).
Detroit lost its last six games; over is 11-4 in its last 15 games. Nationals got swept four in row at Wrigley this weekend; five of their last six games went over.
Blue Jays @ Giants
Sanchez is 2-0, 0.86 in three road starts (under 5-1)
Peavy is 1-3, 9.38 in his last five starts (over 6-0).
Toronto won four of last six games, but lost last two; their last 12 road games stayed under the total. Giants won seven of last ten home games; over is 13-4 in their last 17 games overall.
Teams won-lost records when this pitcher starts:
Mil-Mia-- Peralta 3-3; Fernandez 4-2
Pitt-Cin-- Niese 5-1; Straily 2-2
SD-Chi-- Vargas 1-2; Lester 5-1
Az-Colo-- De la Rosa 2-3; Chatwood 4-2
NY-LA-- Matz 4-1; Kazmir 2-4
KC-NY-- Young 2-4; Nova 0-0
A's-Bos--Gray 3-3; Buchholz 1-5
Chi-Tex-- Gonzalez 1-0; Lewis 3-3
Cle-Hst-- Kluber 2-4; Fiers 3-3
Balt-Min-- Wilson 2-3; Berrios 1-1
TB-Sea-- Moore 3-3; Hernandez 3-3
Det-Wsh-- Sanchez 3-3; Strasburg 6-0
Tor-SF-- Sanchez 3-3; Peavy 2-4
Starting pitchers allowing 1+ runs in first inning:
Mil-Mia-- Peralta 2-6; Fernandez 3-3
Pitt-Cin-- Niese 0-6; Straily 0-4
SD-Chi-- Vargas 0-3; Lester 1-6
Az-Colo-- De la Rosa 0-5; Chatwood 1-6
NY-LA-- Matz 0-5; Kazmir 4-6
KC-NY-- Young 3-6; Nova 0-0
A's-Bos--Gray 1-6; Buchholz 2-6
Chi-Tex-- Gonzalez 1-1; Lewis 4-6
Cle-Hst-- Kluber 1-6; Fiers 2-6
Balt-Min-- Wilson 1-5; Berrios 0-2
TB-Sea-- Moore 0-6; Hernandez 0-6
Det-Wsh-- Sanchez 2-6; Strasburg 1-6
Tor-SF-- Sanchez 2-6; Peavy 2-6
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Toronto at San Francisco
The first matchup of a three game interleague series between San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays at AT&T Park features two hurlers coming at this game from opposite ends of the spectrum. Jake Peavy, the starter for the Giants is off back-2-back losses giving up 4 yard-ball, 13 runs and carries a 1-3 record, 9.00 ERA to the mound. On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jays Aaron Sanchez 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA heading to the hill off back-2-back seven inning efforts surrendering just 3 runs.
Oddsmakers taking note of the pitching disparity have opened Blue Jays $1.20 road favorites. Taking a road favorite can be a perilous road in baseball betting. But, the view from here is Sanchez allowing three runs or less in 5 of 6 games and only 3 total runs in three road starts over 21 innings of work should keep Giant bats quiet. Additionally, Blue Jays' offense should show signs of life and put up good numbers vs struggling Peavy. Another positive, the Blue Jays are 7-3 last ten in game-one of a road series after completing a home stand, 6-1 last seven interleague games facing a right-handed starter.
Tigers travel to Washington
By Sportsbook.ag
DETROIT TIGERS (14-16) at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (19-12)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Detroit +180, Washington -200, Total: 7.5
The Nationals look to get back on track as they kick off a series against the Tigers in an interleague clash.
The Nationals (19-12) return home following a 10-game road trip and find themselves in second place in the National League East for the first time all season. They were swept by the Cubs in a four-game set this past weekend and are a half-game behind the Mets. They’re welcoming the Tigers (14-16) to Nationals Park for a three-game interleague series. Detroit was swept by the Rangers this past weekend and has lost six in a row.
On the mound for the Nationals will be RHP Stephen Strasburg (5-0, 2.36 ERA, 47 SO, 9 BB, 1 HR in 42 IP), who has allowed more than two earned runs just once in six starts. He’ll be opposed by Tigers RHP Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 5.87 ERA, 33 SO, 19 BB, 5 HR in 30 2/3 IP). The Nationals have gone 8-4 at home, while the Tigers have posted a 9-7 mark away from Detroit.
The Tigers’ best hitter this season has been 3B Nick Castellanos (.375, 5 HR, 24 RBI, .393 OBP), who leads the American League in average. DH Victor Martinez (.311, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .372 OBP) and 2B Ian Kinsler (.304, 6 HR, 17 RBI, .343 OBP) have also hit well for manager Brad Ausmus. 1B Miguel Cabrera’s (.291, 4 HR, 13 RBI, .362 OBP) stats might not jump out at you, but the two-time AL MVP remains the most talented and feared hitter on the club.
LF Justin Upton (.235, 2 HR, 9 RBI, .276 OBP) and RF J.D. Martinez (.230, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .305 OBP) have underachieved greatly through the first 30 games. The Tigers haven’t seen much of Strasburg, who has only faced them one time in his career. Upton played in the National League from 2007-15, so he has 31 at-bats against the former All-Star. Upton is 9-for-31 against the righty with two home runs and five RBIs. Sanchez has dominated the Nationals in 21 career starts, going 9-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.139 WHIP. He hasn’t faced them since 2013, however.
2B Daniel Murphy (.395, 4 HR, 17 RBI, .439 OBP) just continues to mash, but RF Bryce Harper (.265, 10 HR, 27 RBI, .432 OBP) remains the best hitter on the team—and arguably the best hitter in all of baseball. C Wilson Ramos (.358, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .373 OBP) has given manager Dusty Baker tremendous production out of the catcher’s spot.
1B Ryan Zimmerman (.236, 1 HR, 12 RBI, .293 OBP) and LF Jayson Werth (.202, 6 HR, 19 RBI, .267 OBP) are not the hitters they once were, and 3B Anthony Rendon (.216, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .290 OBP) has been a major disappointment. Zimmerman has faced Sanchez 48 times—Sanchez pitched in the NL East for the Marlins from 2006-12—and gone 11-for-48 with a home run, a double and three RBIs. Werth has also seen plenty of Sanchez, though he’s struggled against him, going just 6-for-33 with a home run and 20 strikeouts.
Harper and backup infielder Stephen Drew (.143, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .167 OBP) have homered off him, and Murphy (5-for-10 with 1 2B, 1 3B and 1 RBI) and Ramos (5-for-16 with 1 2B and 1 RBI) have hit the 32-year-old well. In Strasburg’s one career start against the Tigers, back in July 2013, he allowed five earned runs in seven innings.
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Ray of Hope?
Tampa Bay is a team that had a very good weekend as they swept the Angels, in LA no less. That’s got them above .500 for the first time this season, but I’m interested to see how this team performs in its next series as they stay out on the West Coast to take on a Seattle club more folks need to be talking about. The M’s own the American League’s second best run differential (+26) despite having had to settle for a split of four games with Houston over the weekend. Even though they’ve been winning recently, the Rays are still tied for the third fewest runs scored in all of baseball. They’ll have to face Seattle’s top two pitchers in this series, beginning with Felix Hernandez on Monday. These two teams played seven times last season and only once were more than five total runs scored!
Something’s Gotta Give
Two teams coming off awful weekends meet in D.C. as the Nationals host the Tigers starting Monday. Washington just got swept in Chicago, so I suppose there’s no real shame there. But Detroit is the one really reeling as they’ve lost six straight games after being swept by both Cleveland and Texas. Actually, four of the Tigers’ last five series have ended in sweeps with them coming out on the wrong end three of those times. Not having the DH for the next three games is a bad blow for a lineup that’s averaging less than three runs per game during its losing skid.
Don’t Forget About Those Bullpens
Bullpens either improving or regressing can have a large impact on a team’s overall won-loss record from year to year. So far, we’re seeing two examples of that in the American League. The White Sox, who seemingly don’t give up any runs late in games, are now 21-0 when leading entering the 7th inning. A big reason for this is that their bullpen ERA (1.86) is the best in baseball by more than half a run. Consider that last season, they were just 15th in that category. Then there’s Houston, who made a big jump last year in bullpen ERA (30th to 6th), but this season is heading back in the opposite direction (currently 23rd). This is a major reason why these two teams are in very different places in the standings. I don’t think 32 games is too small a sample size to make changes to my preseason playoff projections. Right now, I’d certainly bet on the White Sox being “in” and the Astros being “out.”
Hitting Notes
Here’s your obligatory Cubs’ mention in the column. A pitching staff that has posted a filthy 2.48 ERA (MLB’s best) has logically grabbed the headlines in the team’s record-setting 24-6 (+102 run differential!) start. But how about the fact the team also leads the league in runs scored? While it all starts with the leadoff man (Dexter Fowler), the Cubs now have another hitter with a better than 1.000 OPS and that’s Anthony Rizzo, who is 11 for 27 at the plate with 10 runs scored during the team’s seven game win streak. Things should be pretty easy on the Northside to start the week as San Diego pays a visit.
Robinson Cano of Seattle is on a tear right now as he’s 17 for his last 31 at the plate with three home runs in the last two games. His May slash line is .500/.500/.731.
Pitching Notes
Simply put, I have a sore spot for the Indians’ Corey Kluber. I feel he’s suffered from some bad luck both this season and last. In the case of 2016, he has an ERA of 3.35, but a WHIP of 0.953. His team start record is only 2-4, but the disparity in ERA/WHIP indicates to me that he’s due for some more positive results. Perhaps as soon as Monday when he’ll start against the struggling Astros.
Four pitchers currently have team start records of 6-0 or better. Three of the names should come as no surprise: Arrieta, Sale and Strasburg. But how about a second White Sox pitcher making the list, that being Mat Latos? Pitching for three different teams last season, Latos posted a 4.95 ERA. This year, he’s all the way down to 2.62 and that’s only after allowing four runs in back to back starts. The next time Latos toes the rubber will be Wednesday, at home, against the Rangers.
Totals Trend
The Under is 10-3 in Dodgers’ home games so far this season. Starting Monday, they’ll welcome in a Mets team that led the NL in runs scored on the road last season.