MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, October 9th, 2017

MLB Playoffs

Houston @ Boston
Astros are 6-4 vs Boston this season; home team won first three series games.

Morton is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under. Houston is 5-4 n his road starts this season. He allowed two runs in 5.1 IP in a 3-2 win over Boston 10 days ago.

Porcello is 2-2, 6.26 in his last five starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11 starts. Boston is 8-11 in his home starts this year. He lost 7-1 to the Astros June 17, giving up seven runs in six IP, and pitched a scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 Friday.

Red Sox are in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years; they got swept 3-0 by Cleveland in this round last year. Houston is in playoffs for second time in three years; they’ve never won the World Series, losing 4-0 to the White Sox in 2005.

Cleveland @ New York
New York is 3-7 vs Cleveland this season; home teams won all three games in this series.

Bauer is 2-0, 0.92 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Indians are 8-7 in his road starts. Bauer is pitching on 3 days’ rest; he is 3-0, 0.92 vs New York this season.

Severino got KO’s in first inning of Wild Card game Tuesday; he is 1-0, 6.75 in his last three starts. Over is 3-1 in his last four starts. New York is 12-5 in his home starts; they won his last six starts overall. Severino is 1-1, 3.38 vs Cleveland this season.

New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012- they beat Twins 7-4 in Wild Card game Tuesday, with bullpen getting 26 of the 27 outs. Indians lost Game 7 of the World Series last year; they haven’t won a World Series since 1948. They’re in playoffs for 3rd time in last five years.

Arizona @ Los Angeles
Dodgers won first two games of this season, both of which went over the total. Arizona is 11-10 vs LA this season, 7-3 in Phoenix. Over is 12-9 in Arizona-LA games this season.

Darvish is 2-0, 0.93 in his last three starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Dodgers are 8-7 in his road starts this season; he allowed two runs in five IP in an 8-6 win at Arizona 8-6, his only start against the Diamondbacks this season.

Greinke is 0-1, 10.80 in his last three starts; over is 4-3 in his last seven outings. Arizona is 15-3 in his home starts this season. Greinke is 1-2, 3.65 in four starts against the Dodgers this year.

Dodgers haven’t been to the World Series since 1988; this is their 5th year in a row in playoffs. Arizona won the Wild Card game 11-8 Wednesday, lost 9-4 last night; this is the first time they’re in the playoffs since 2011.

Washington @ Chicago
Washington is 5-4 against the Cubs this season (over 6-3): Nationals rallied for five runs in bottom of 8th inning Saturday to even this series 1-1.

Scherzer is 2-0, 1.65 in his last three starts (under 3-0), but left his last start with hamstring cramps. Nationals are 11-5 in his road starts. Scherzer beat the Cubs 6-1 on June 27, allowing one run in six IP.

Cubs won Quintana’s last six starts (3-0, 2.82); under is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Cubs are 3-3 in his road starts. He hasn’t pitched against Washington this season.

Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.

Armadillosports.com

Monday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview
Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (+107, 10.5)

Hanley Ramirez struggled through the final two months of the regular season and was left out of the Boston Red Sox's starting lineup in Game 1 of their American League Division Series. The veteran slugger seems to be back in form after an injury gave him another shot and looks to stay hot as the Red Sox attempt to even the best-of-five series at two wins apiece when they host the Houston Astros on Monday afternoon.

Ramirez, who batted .213 with 45 strikeouts in his final 43 games of 2017, needed an injury to Eduardo Nunez to regain the role of designated hitter and has gone 6-for-10 with three RBIs in the first three games of the series. Houston will try to contain Ramirez while getting its offense going again after being shut out by Boston's bullpen over the last eight innings of a 10-3 loss in Game 3 on Sunday. AL batting champion Jose Altuve continued his torrid hitting by recording three hits for the Astros and is 8-for-11 in the series while Carlos Correa went deep for the second time in two games and has knocked in six runs in three contests. Charlie Morton won a career-high 14 games and will get the start for Houston in Game 4 against Rick Porcello, who went 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA this season after posting a 22-4 record en route to the AL Cy Young Award in 2016.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (Playoffs: 0-0, 0.00)

Morton won his final three starts of the regular season, including one at Fenway Park, as he allowed just four runs and 13 hits over 18 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old limited Boston to two runs in 5 1/3 frames on Sept. 29 as he improved to 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox. Morton, who has handled Ramirez (1-for-15) and Mookie Betts (0-for-4), went 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA in nine turns on the road in 2017 and 4-1 with a 2.54 mark in September.

Porcello won his last two decisions and went 7-3 in the final two months of the regular season to get the start despite pitching one scoreless inning of relief in Game 1 on Thursday. The 28-year-old New Jersey native was 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA at home this year after going 13-1 with a 2.97 mark at Fenway Park in 2016. Carlos Beltran is 10-for-27 with a homer and Josh Reddick 3-for-10 with a blast versus Porcello, who gave up seven runs over six innings in a loss to Houston on June 17.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 6-1 in Mortons last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.
* Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 playoff games.
* Over is 8-2 in Red Sox last 10 overall.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Boston.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road favorite Astros with 60 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 55 percent of the totals wagers.

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs (+104, 7.5)

The Washington Nationals were unsure what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer going into the playoffs, but they’ll need their ace to be close to his best when he gets the ball Monday for Game 3 of the NL Division Series against the Chicago Cubs. The series shifts back to Wrigley Field after the teams split the first two games in Washington.

The Cubs’ pitching staff was dominant for the first 16 innings of the series, shutting out the Nationals in the opener and taking a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning of Game 2 before Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman went deep in a five-run frame that lifted Washington to a 6-3 win. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." Chicago hopes left-hander Jose Quintana can put the Nationals back on their heels as he makes his postseason debut. Scherzer left his last start of the regular season on Sept. 30 with a hamstring injury that left his status for the division series up in the air, but he will aim for his first postseason win since the 2013 AL Division Series.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals RH Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15)

Scherzer is 0-3 in his last five postseason starts, but he posted a 3.75 ERA in two outings in last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers. The 33-year-old was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, including a win this season in which he allowed one run and two hits over six frames.

Quintana has gone 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts since the Cubs acquired him from the cross-town White Sox. The Cubs have won the 28-year-old’s last six starts, and he has posted a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals.

TRENDS:

* Nationals are 5-1 in Scherzers last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cubs are 6-0 in Quintanas last 6 home starts.
* Under is 11-1 in Nationals last 12 games following an off day.
* Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 playoff home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games following a loss.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road chalk Nationals with 62 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 60 percent of the totals wagers.

Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees (-164, 7.5)

Luis Severino seeks a measure of redemption as he tries to keep the New York Yankees' season alive when he leads them into Game 4 of their American League Division Series against the visiting Cleveland Indians on Monday. The Yankees avoided being swept in the best-of-five matchup by posting a 1-0 victory on Sunday, riding a seven-inning gem from Masahiro Tanaka and a solo homer by Greg Bird to the season-saving win.

Tanaka allowed three hits and recorded seven strikeouts in the best outing - by far - by a New York starter this postseason, a lackluster stretch for the rotation that began with Severino retiring only one batter in the wild-card game against Minnesota on Tuesday. The Indians, who registered four singles and a triple in Sunday's defeat, will counter in Game 4 with Trevor Bauer on three days' rest. Bauer flummoxed the Yankees through 6 2/3 innings of a 4-0 win in the series opener and has won 11 of his last 12 decisions overall, including three victories over New York. Cleveland played Sunday without cleanup hitter Edwin Encarnacion, who remains day-to-day after spraining his ankle in Game 2.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Trevor Bauer (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Luis Severino (0-0, 81.00)

Bauer has allowed two runs and 11 hits over 19 2/3 innings in a three-start span dating to the regular season. The 26-year-old posted a 4.54 ERA on the road this year but owns a 2.87 mark in three career turns at Yankee Stadium. Bauer struck out New York slugger Aaron Judge each of the three times he faced him in Game 1.

Severino made a pair of starts against Cleveland in August, allowing a total of four earned runs and six hits in 13 1/3 innings while recording 18 strikeouts. The 23-year-old was reached for 15 of the 21 home runs he served up this year at home, including three - two by Jose Ramirez - in a loss to the Indians at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 28. Severino, who has worked just 9 1/3 frames in a span of 23 days, owns a 2.49 ERA in four career starts versus Cleveland.

TRENDS:

* Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff games.
* Indians are 10-1 in Bauers last 11 starts vs. American League East.
* Yankees are 14-2 in Severinos last 16 starts.
* Under is 7-1-2 in Bauers last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Yankees last 11 Divisional Playoff home games.
* Indians are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (102, 9)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have rolled to back-to-back victories over the Arizona Diamondbacks and look to wrap up the best-of-5 National League Division Series when the scene switches to Phoenix on Monday. Los Angeles racked up 17 runs and 24 hits in two easy wins as it resembled the squad that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories.

The Diamondbacks attempt to remain in the series behind ace Zack Greinke, the right-hander who won 51 games in three seasons with the Dodgers before signing with Arizona after the 2015 campaign. "If you've got to pick one guy to stop this situation we're in, I think we've found the right guy in Zack Greinke," Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said in a press conference. Los Angeles right fielder Yasiel Puig has been one of the hitting stars by going 5-for-9 with four RBIs as the Dodgers appear to have put aside their regular-season struggles (8-11) against Arizona. "We're going to treat it like another game. We've been in Chase Field before," Los Angeles infielder Logan Forsythe told reporters. "I know it's probably going to be a little louder. But we're going up against Greinke, who is their guy, and we're going to do our homework, and go out there and prepare for the game the way we've been playing."

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers RH Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (playoffs: 0-0, 9.82)

Darvish finished the season strong by going 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch. The 31-year-old from Japan has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts but the Dodgers acquired him from the Texas Rangers to boost up their playoff-caliber pitching. "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu," Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference. "Outside of the first three or four (outings) once he came over, he's been very good and continuing to get better."

Greinke has been ineffective over his last three turns - giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings - and lasted just 3 2/3 frames in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies. The 33-year-old is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready."

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 Divisional Playoff games.
* Over is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 vs. National League West.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home favorite Diamondbacks with 70 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 62 percent of the totals wagers.

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Houston (-120) at Boston; Total: 10.5

The Boston Red Sox seemed to prolong the inevitable for one more day. That’s not to say that the Red Sox can’t find a way to advance to Game 5 and get Chris Sale one more start against the Astros, but Rick Porcello is not the guy that you want on the bump when you need to stay alive. Then again, Doug Fister wouldn’t have been the preferred choice either, so the Tournament of Variance has stayed true to the name that I have given it so far this season.

The preferred side, albeit slightly, has been Houston in this one. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the ‘Stros. Morton, much like Game 3 starter Brad Peacock, had a breakout type of season this year. In 25 starts, Morton hung a 3.62 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP. Morton worked 146.2 innings and struck out 163 batters. He did walk 50, hit 13, and had a little bit of a problem with injuries. One of the interesting things about Morton’s season is that he showcased some enormous reverse platoon splits. Lefties only hit .172/.263/.298 against him, while righties batted .272/.343/.461. The Red Sox do have quite a few right-handed hitters, but I’m still not a believer in this lineup, despite the offensive barrage in Game 3.

Give the Red Sox credit for digging out of an early 3-0 hole to stay alive. Rafael Devers hit a big dong off of Francisco Liriano and that set things in motion. The Red Sox also got to Chris Devenski, which was again proof of just how f’d up these playoffs have been. Some truly elite arms have not pitched well. The Red Sox were 7-for-12 with RISP and the Astros were 2-for-10. Houston had 13 hits, only struck out six times, but only managed three runs. David Price will be unavailable as a bridge to the bullpen when Porcello gets into trouble and that is the deciding factor in taking the Astros as far as I’m concerned.

Those that have followed along all season know that we nailed it with Rick Porcello. Coming off of a career-high in innings pitched, Porcello went from a 3.15 ERA with a 3.40 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP to a 4.65 ERA with a 4.60 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP. His LOB% only dropped by 4.7 percent, so this wasn’t some unlucky year with the luck metrics. Porcello’s command completely fell apart and he picked the wrong season to start allowing more fly balls. Porcello posted a 14.7 percent HR/FB, a 5.4 percent increase from last season, despite allowing almost four percent more fly balls. That is a command issue. For most of the year, Porcello was among the league’s worst in batted balls with a 95+ mph exit velocity.

I’ll roll with Houston today. I am a little bit worried about their bullpen as well, but not the extent that I am with Boston’s. Price has emerged as the most important non-Craig Kimbrel arm in that pen and he won’t be usable after throwing 57 pitches in Game 3.

Washington (-120) at Chicago

Per usual, we’ll wait until the middle of the morning for a total at Wrigley Field. The Nationals and Cubs are tied at one in this series, as the Kyle Hendricks decision worked well in Game 1, but the Nationals got a huge swing in the eighth inning from Bryce Harper and then another one from Ryan Zimmerman to take away Game 2. Jon Lester pitched fairly well, though he only struck out two over six innings. Strikeouts mean so much in the playoffs for obvious reasons and the Nationals have put a lot of balls in play thus far.

To get a split was huge for the Nationals with Max Scherzer going today. Heading into the series, the fact that Scherzer was only slated for one start was the deciding factor for me in terms of looking at Chicago on the series price. Scherzer put the finishing touches on another wonderful season with a 2.51 ERA, a 2.90 FIP, a 3.28 xFIP, and a 34.4 percent K%, which was a career-best. The concern here is that we don’t know how Scherzer will fare. He’s thrown some bullpens and sides since leaving his September 30 start after 3.1 innings with the hamstring injury. Will he be sharp? Scherzer is a guy that has fallen victim to occasional command hiccups.

It was a little bit surprising that Jose Quintana was named the Game 3 starts. Quintana, since joining the Cubs, has been brilliant. Across 14 starts, Quintana owns a 3.74 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP. He struck out 98 in 84.1 innings of wowkr and only walked 21. The Quintana addition was a strong one for the Cubs and he has been worth his weight in gold thus far. With the off day, both bullpens are in pretty decent shape. This could very well come down to the bullpens, where it is hard to find a discernible edge.

Offensively, neither team has really hit a stride. The Nationals got a couple big blows in the eighth in Game 2, but managed only two hits in Game 1. The Cubs haven’t been able to maximize their opportunities.

This is the toughest game on the board for me. Because I have concerns about Scherzer and how sharp he’ll be, I’d have the thinnest of leans to the Cubs.

Los Angeles (-115) at Arizona; Total: 9

I have not been impressed with the way that the Diamondbacks have handled their starting staff in this series. Zack Godley was wasted in relief in Game 1 when the Diamondbacks had spotted Clayton Kershaw a four-run head start. Godley should have pitched as the Game 1 starter. Robbie Ray was used in the Wild Card Game and then ran out of gas in the middle innings of Game 2. This is Arizona’s best chance to win a game. Zack Greinke will go up against Yu Darvish.

Darvish posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP in his nine starts with the Dodgers. The nice thing is that Darvish wrapped up the year with three really solid starts because he had been pretty pedestrian for a while before then. The rub is that he faced the Giants, Phillies, and Padres in those three starts. The Diamondbacks are significantly better than those three offenses. I’m unsure what to expect from Darvish in this start, to be completely honest. He struck out 10 over five in his lone Chase Field start this season, which was really good, obviously, but this is a tough pitching environment. Gripping the baseball is tough to do in the dry air and Darvish had some control issues earlier on in the year. I think he’s a little bit more high-variance of a starter in this spot than the line would suggest and what his body of work would suggest.

Greinke is coming back off of a pretty bad Wild Card Game start. He allowed four runs on six hits and only struck out one across 3.2 innings of work. The nice thing is that he only threw 58 pitches, so he should be in pretty good shape from an arm standpoint in this one. Greinke had an excellent year with a 3.20 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and a 3.34 xFIP, but we’ve seen in the playoffs that it really doesn’t matter all that much. Aces have not pitched well and middle of the rotation guys have. I do think that there’s a bit of upside to Greinke, though it concerns me that he struggled so much on the big stage in the Wild Card Game. This is another elimination game with similar stakes.

To me, the play in this game is the over. Both bullpens have had some bumps along the way and I think both starters will have some issues in this one. From a side standpoint, this looks like a game to live bet, as most playoff games are.