MLB Betting News and Notes Monday, September 4th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Phillies @ Mets
Leiter is 1-3, 4.88 in his last four starts (under 4-1-1). Phillies are 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Montero is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten starts. Mets are 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-2

Phillies won three of last four games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. Philly is 9-14 in road series openers. Mets are 5-16 in their last 21 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. New York is 2-5 in last seven home series openers.

Brewers @ Reds
Anderson is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Brewers are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

Bailey is 1-2, 7.83 in his last five starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven starts. He is 1-1, 9.00 against the Brewers this season. Reds are 0-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1

Milwaukee won six of last eight games; under is 11-1-2 in their last 14 road games. Brewers are 10-12 in road series openers. Reds are 5-8 in last 13 games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five home games. Cincinnati is 11-6 in last 17 home series openers.

Giants @ Rockies
Moore is 1-3, 4.71 in his last six starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11 starts. He is 0-2, 13.50 in three starts vs Colorado this season. Giants are 3-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-18-5

Bettis is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts (under 4-0). Colorado is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1

Giants lost 8 of last 10 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. SF is 3-8 in last 11 road series openers. Colorado lost six of last seven games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Rockies are 16-6 in home series openers.

Cubs @ Pirates
Arrieta is 4-0, 1.78 in his last five starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six starts. He is 0-2, 4.09 in four starts vs Pittsburgh this season. Cubs are 9-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-7-5

Kuhl is 2-0, 4.50 in his last five starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five home starts. He is 1-1, 3.75 against the Cubs this season. Pirates are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-5

Cubs won six of last seven games (under 5-2). Chicago is 9-3 in its last 12 road series openers. Pittsburgh lost four of last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games. Pirates are 9-13 in home series openers.

Cardinals @ Padres
Martinez is 3-1, 4.28 in his last five starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. St Louis is 5-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-12-2

Perdomo is 1-2, 5.25 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine starts. San Diego is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-4

Cardinals won three of last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. St Louis is 8-5 in last 13 road series openers. San Diego won five of last six games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Padres are 13-10 in home series openers.

Nationals @ Marlins
Fedde is 0-1, 9.39 in three starts this year (over 3-0). Washington won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3

Conley is 2-1, 4.07 in his last four starts; he is 0-2, 5.73 vs Washington this year. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-3

Nationals lost three of last four games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games. Washington is 15-7 in road series openers. Miami lost six of last seven games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games. Marlins are 10-5 in last 15 home series openers.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Ray is 2-0, 1.35 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. He is 2-0, 3.38 in four starts vs LA this season. Arizona is 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-7

Hill is 0-2, 4.97 in his last two starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11 starts. Dodgers are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-4

Arizona won its last 10 games; under is 4-1 in their last five road games. D’backs are 13-9 in road series openers. Dodgers lost eight of last nine games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. LA is 16-6 in home series openers.

American League

Royals @ Tigers
Junis is 3-0, 1.80 in his last four starts (over 5-3-2). Royals are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4

Lewicki is making his first MLB start; he was 5-0, 2.03 in five AAA starts this year, 9-4, 3.76 in 20 AA starts.

Royals lost 8 of last 10 games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. KC is 10-12 in road series openers. Detroit lost five of last six games; under is 8-2 in his last 10 games. Tigers are 1-7 in last eight home series openers.

New York @ Baltimore
Montgomery is 0-2, 5.32 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 1-1, 4.41 in three starts vs Baltimore this year. New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 4-8

Bundy is 5-0, 3.23 in his last seven starts; over is 10-3 in his last 13 starts. He is 1-1, 3.46 vs New York this season. Orioles are 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8-2

New York won three of last four games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. NY is 11-11 in road series openers. Baltimore won nine of last 11 games; their last three games stayed under. Orioles are 15-8 in home series openers.

Indians @ White Sox
Bauer is 7-0, 2.45 in his last eight starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Indians are 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8-3

Shields is 0-2, 5.08 in his last five starts (under 4-1). White Sox are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-10-3

Indians won its last 11 games; over is 5-3 in his last eight road games. Cleveland is 9-4 in last 13 road series openers. White Sox won three of last four home games; under is 8-1 in their last nine home games. Chicago is 9-6 in last 15 home series openers.

Angels @ A’s
Bridwell is 0-1, 7.80 in his last three starts; under is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. Angels are 6-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-3

Smith is 0-3, 9.31 in his last four starts (under 5-2-1). A’s are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1

Angels are 5-3 in their last eight games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Halos are 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Oakland is off a hideous 0-6 road trip; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games. A’s are 9-13 in home series openers.

Astros @ Mariners
Keuchel is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Houston is 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Ramirez is 1-2, 3.90 in six starts for Seattle; under is 3-1 in his last four starts. Mariners lost his only home start — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-2

Astros won their last four games; over is 3-1 in their last four road games. Houston is 15-6 in road series openers. Seattle won its last five home games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Mariners are 2-7 in last nine home series openers.

Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Happ is 0-2, 5.82 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. He is 0-0, 2.45 in two starts vs Boston this season. Toronto is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-1

Porcello is 5-1, 5.80 in his last six starts (over 4-2). He is 1-1, 2.45 vs Toronto this season. Red Sox are 7-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-16-3

Blue Jays lost six of last eight games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Toronto is 5-11 in last 16 road series openers. Boston lost three of last four games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Red Sox are 15-8 in home series openers.

Twins @ Rays
Berrios is 2-1, 2.33 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Minnesota lost his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-2

Cobb is 0-3, 5.59 in his last four starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Tampa Bay is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-3

Twins won five of last seven games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Minnesota is 13-8 in road series openers. Tampa Bay is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven games. Rays are 8-13 in home series openers.

Interleague

Rangers @ Braves
Cashner is 3-1, 2.72 in his last six starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Texas is 5-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-6-3

Dickey is 3-1, 3.55 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six starts. Atlanta is 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-4

Rangers won four of last six games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Texas is 10-12 in road series openers. Atlanta lost six of last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Braves are 10-11 in home series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

Phil-NY: Leiter 3-3; Montero 5-8
Mil-Cin: Anderson 10-9; Bailey 4-9
SF-Colo: Moore 8-19; Bettis 1-3
Chi-Pitt: Arrieta 15-12; Kuhl 10-17
StL-SD: Martinez 13-14; Perdomo 11-13
Wash-Mia: Fedde 1-2; Conley 8-7
Az-LA: Ray 14-8; Hill 12-8

American League
KC-Det: Junis 7-3; Lewicki 0-0
NY-Balt: Montgomery 9-15; Bundy 17-8
Clev-Chi: Bauer 15-11; Shields 6-10
LA-A’s: Bridwell 12-2; Smith 3-5
Hst-Sea: Keuchel 13-5; Ramirez 3-3
Tor-Bos: Happ 7-13; Porcello 13-15
Minn-TB: Berrios 12-8; Cobb 12-13

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Cashner 11-11; Dickey 14-12

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Phil-NY: Leiter 3-6; Montero 4-13
Mil-Cin: Anderson 6-19; Bailey 8-13
SF-Colo: Moore 9-27; Bettis 1-4
Chi-Pitt: Arrieta 7-27; Kuhl 5-27
StL-SD: Martinez 11-27; Perdomo 9-24
Wash-Mia: Fedde 2-3; Conley 6-15
Az-LA: Ray 8-22; Hill 6-20

American League
KC-Det: Junis 3-10; Lewicki 0-0
NY-Balt: Montgomery 6-24; Bundy 4-25
Clev-Chi: Bauer 4-26; Shields 6-14
LA-A’s: Bridwell 1-14; Smith 4-8
Hst-Sea: Keuchel 4-18; Ramirez 2-6
Tor-Bos: Happ 4-20; Porcello 8-28
Minn-TB: Berrios 5-20; Cobb 4-25

Interleague
Tex-Atl: Cashner 6-22; Dickey 6-26

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 144-126 AL, favorites +$567

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 138-125-10

Armadillosports.com

Monday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (11-0 last 11) at White Sox

Last season, Cleveland put together an incredible 14-game winning streak that propelled them to the top of the AL Central. The Indians started slowly this season after falling in Game 7 of the World Series, but the Tribe is back on the winning track following a four-game sweep of the depleted Tigers. Cleveland has extended its advantage in the AL Central to nine games over Minnesota, while posting an incredible 32-11 record in the past 43 contests.

The Indians are expected to keep the money train rolling into the South Side of Chicago to face the last-place White Sox. Trevor Bauer takes the mound in the series opener as the right-hander has won each of his past four starts, while Cleveland has compiled a 7-1 mark in his previous eight starts.

Coldest team: Athletics (0-6 last six) vs. Angels

Oakland isn’t heading to the playoffs, as the A’s look like they are playing out the string. Following a three-game home sweep of the Rangers last weekend, the A’s were swept by the Angels and Mariners on the road. Oakland squandered a five-run lead in a 10-8 defeat at Los Angeles and blew a four-run advantage in Saturday’s 7-6 walk-off setback at Seattle. After this disastrous road swing, Oakland has dropped 10 of its past 12 games away from the Coliseum.

The A’s return home in a quick revenge spot against the Angels, who took three from Oakland last week. Chris Smith looks for his first victory of the season for Oakland as the right-hander allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts, including seven in 3.2 innings of an 8-2 loss to the Angels on August 29.

Hottest pitcher: Jake Arrieta, Cubs (14-8, 3.36 ERA)

Chicago owns a 3 ½-game edge over Milwaukee in the NL Central as the Cubs will try to extend that advantage in Pittsburgh over the next few days. Arrieta is returning to his Cy Young form of 2015 by going 4-0 in his past five starts, including a dominating performance against the Pirates. Last Tuesday, Arrieta scattered two hits in six scoreless innings of a 4-1 home triumph over Pittsburgh to pick up his first win against the Bucs in four starts this season.

Coldest pitcher: A.J. Cole, Nationals (1-4, 4.50 ERA)

Although Washington is cruising atop the NL East, it wasn’t smooth sailing last month for Cole. The right-hander lost all four of his August starts, including three defeats at Nationals Park. The last time Cole squared off with the Marlins in Miami, he put together his worst start of the season by allowing five earned runs in five innings of a 7-0 loss on August 2. The only good news for Cole is the Nationals have won six of the previous seven matchups with the Marlins, although each game occurred in D.C.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (5-1-2 last eight)

Texas is still hanging around in the AL Wild Card race after taking two of three from Los Angeles at home. All three games saw plenty of runs, including the Rangers winning a pair of one-run contests. Sunday’s 7-6 victory by Texas eclipsed the OVER for the second time over the weekend as all three totals closed at 10 ½ or higher. Texas travels to Atlanta for an interleague series as Andrew Cashner heads to the mound for the Rangers. In Cashner’s last 10 starts, the UNDER has hit eight times, while going 5-2-1 to the UNDER in his past eight road outings.

Biggest UNDER run: Red Sox (7-2 last nine)

The AL East race is tightening up after the Yankees captured three of four games from Boston to cut the Red Sox deficit to 3 ½ games atop the division. Boston returns home to battle Toronto as five of the past seven meetings between these division rivals have finished UNDER the total, including three of the previous four contests at Fenway Park. Rick Porcello has drilled the UNDER in both starts against Toronto this season, while limiting the Blue Jays to four runs (one earned) in 13.2 innings of work.

Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Los Angeles is trending in the wrong direction of late by losing eight of nine, including dropping three of four at San Diego this past weekend. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have caught fire by running off 10 consecutive victories, including a huge three-game sweep at Colorado to extend its Wild Card advantage to 6 ½ games over the Rockies.

During this 10-game hot streak, the D-backs pulled off a three-game sweep of the Dodgers at Chase Field last week, while plating 21 runs. In the middle game of that set, Robbie Ray shut down the powerful Los Angeles lineup by striking out 10 batters and yielding four hits and one earned run in 6.2 innings of a 6-4 victory. Arizona owns a 3-1 record in Ray’s four starts against Los Angeles this season, while the southpaw has struck out 10 or more three times.

The Dodgers counter with another left-hander in Rich Hill. Two starts ago, Hill took a no-hitter in the tenth inning at Pittsburgh before allowing a walk-off home run and ultimately losing, 1-0. Hill struggled in his most recent outing at Arizona by giving up five runs in the first inning of a 7-6 defeat. Since coming over to the Dodgers last season, Los Angeles has lost three of Hill’s four starts against Arizona.

Betcha didn’t know: Whenever Padres’ right-hander Luis Perdomo takes the mound, you can count on him tossing six innings. Perdomo has gone six innings in six consecutive starts, including in a 4-3 victory as a +205 underdog at St. Louis on August 24. Perdomo faces the Cardinals once again at Petco Park as the Padres have six of his past eight home starts.

Biggest public favorite: Indians (-230) at White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Twins (+110) at Rays

Biggest line move: Reds (+115 to +105) vs. Brewers

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Milwaukee (-120) at Cincinnati; Total: 9.5

Chase Anderson is a pitcher in line for regression per the metrics, so the Reds are the preferred sharp side on the overnights. Anderson, who recently came back from an oblique injury, has a 2.96 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and a 4.55 xFIP. Even though the Reds are trotting out Homer Bailey, the market is willing to bet against Anderson.

Anderson returned August 20 and has made three starts. He has allowed six runs on just 10 hits across his 16 innings of work with 16 strikeouts and seven walks. He’s also allowed three home runs, which is concerning since he only allowed eight homers in his first 16 starts. The Brewers are right there in the thick of things in the NL Wild Card race, so every game is important for them. They aren’t all that far out in the division either.

Homer Bailey has a 7.51 ERA with a 5.38 FIP and a 5.20 xFIP on the year. His 61.8 percent LOB% and .361 BABIP against are big reasons why the market is willing to take a shot here. Bailey has only lasted 62.1 innings across his 13 starts and has shown very little in the way of control and command this year. He’s coming off of a couple major injuries and has only made eight Major League starts since 2014.

I know what the numbers say and I’m predominantly a numbers guy, but sometimes I have to draw a line. This is one of those spots. I’m not interested in backing Bailey now or in any start. Of Bailey’s 13 starts, he has allowed six or more runs six times and two runs or fewer seven times. That means I have no idea what to expect. In those “good” starts, he’s either had a bad K/BB ratio or has gotten lucky to pitch around a lot of hits. That’s not a profile I’m interested in. Give me the Brewers today.

New York at Baltimore (-125); Total: 9.5

The Yankees are in a pretty tough spot on Monday with a day game after a Sunday Night Baseball game. There’s also travel associated with this game, as the Yankees boarded a plane for Baltimore late last night. At least it was a happy flight after scoring nine runs off of Chris Sale and the Red Sox bullpen.

Today, Jordan Montgomery squares off with Dylan Bundy. Montgomery has a 4.15 ERA with a 4.06 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP. Montgomery has been a very intriguing guy to me this season because he’s thrown a vast array of breaking balls. Montgomery is throwing his changeup and curveball over 20 percent of the time and only throwing fastballs about 42 percent of the time. It is a very intriguing arsenal to watch. To me, it is an arsenal that should play up against Baltimore, an aggressive, free-swinging lineup. Some breaking balls are hangers and get banged a long way, but it is tough to center on breakers. The Orioles rank 11th in pitch type value against curveballs, but 22nd against changeups. They rank 13th in pitch type value against sliders, but that is an area in which the majority of the league struggles. The Indians, Astros, Tigers, and Cardinals are the only teams above average in that metric. But, as you would expect, the Orioles are on the plus side against fastballs. I think Montgomery’s arsenal plays up here.

Dylan Bundy has found it again. The right-hander has had a roller coaster ride of a season this year, but he now has a 3.94 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.72 xFIP. Bundy has worked 155.1 innings this season with decent peripherals. His switch to a fly ball pitcher has been interesting to watch over the last two seasons, but he has cut back on the homers and the walks this season. All of the sudden, Bundy looks like a different guy. He pitched a complete game one-hitter with 12 strikeouts last time out. He’s struck out 40 batters over his last four starts after striking out just 97 in his first 21 starts. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote an excellent piece on Bundy and how he’s been pitching of late. Bundy has started throwing his slider more and the results have been quite obvious.

Given the late night for the Yankees and how I feel Montgomery matches up here, I’d be looking to play the under. Bundy has found an arsenal that works for him and the results have been very impressive. The Yankees have had a lot of swing and miss lately and the offense has been come-and-go in recent weeks. I’ll look for a low-scoring affair.

Los Angeles (-135) at Oakland; Total: 9.5

It’s not a surprise to see a little bit of money hitting the market on the A’s in this spot. Parker Bridwell takes the mound for the Angels against Chris Smith. For as bad as Chris Smith is, the signs of regression in Bridwell’s profile are always going to draw line movement. Bridwell has a 3.52 ERA with a 4.81 FIP and a 4.98 xFIP. He’s got an 80.5 percent strand rate with a low strikeout rate. Those are not stats that influential bettors like to back. Sometimes regression is gradual. Other times, it is very fast. Bridwell allowed seven runs on six hits in his last start against these same A’s to raise that ERA by quite a bit. Prior to that, Bridwell had only allowed more than three earned runs twice in 13 starts.

The profile for Chris Smith is not exciting. He has a 6.27 ERA with a 6.75 FIP and a 5.86 xFIP. We’ve seen a lot of line moves predicated on LOB% of late, since the FIP and xFIP scales are skewed by this season’s enormous power spike. Smith’s LOB% is 62.8 percent, so he hasn’t had much luck getting out of dicey situations. But, that’s what happens when you only have 26 strikeouts out of 208 batters and have 17 walks in that span as well. The A’s right-hander has allowed 13 HR.

I understand what the thought process is for those backing the Angels, but I’m not really on board with it. I will say that I will look to fade non-division road teams in Oakland this month, but I think the division will be able to beat up on Oakland this month. Oakland almost got no-hit by Andrew Albers yesterday. That’s a pretty good indication of where the A’s are right now.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-120); Total: 8.5

The wrong team isn’t favored in Tampa Bay, but the Rays are favored by too much as far as I’m concerned. The Twins will send staff ace Jose Berrios to the bump. The Rays will counter with Alex Cobb. The Twins are playing some exceptional baseball over the last month and have gained ground in the Wild Card chase, but haven’t been able to gain any in the AL Central standings. A big reason why has been Berrios.

Berrios has a 3.80/3.81/4.33 pitcher slash on the year in his 20 starts. He’s actually in line for a bit of positive regression with a 68.9 percent LOB%, which is part of the reason why we have seen a little bit of Twins money roll into the market. He has 115 strikeouts in 118.1 innings of work and has finally been able to harness all of that potential that he has. Berrios is also in a really nice strikeout groove with 27 over his last three starts. To be fair, he faced the White Sox twice, but the Rays aren’t exactly a great offense and do swing and miss a lot themselves. Because Berrios has only allowed 13 home runs, with just four allowed since the All-Star Break, he’s a guy I’m interested in backing in this spot.

Alex Cobb is having a solid season as well with a 3.72 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, and a 4.38 xFIP. Cobb has kept balls off the barrel and has pretty strong peripherals. His 75.2 percent LOB% may be a little high for a guy with a low strikeout rate, but he induces a lot of weak contact and doesn’t compound his problems by issuing walks. It took Cobb some time to get settled in after missing a lot of action over the last couple of years. Since June 9, Cobb has a 3.01 ERA, but I’m looking at a 78.7 percent LOB% and I wonder how sustainable that actually is the rest of the way.

I’m willing to roll the dice on the visitors today. Berrios is a very solid pitcher and Cobb is pretty BABIP-depedent. In that 13-start sample since June 9, he has a .240 BABIP against. I’m not sure he can keep that pace over these final five starts, especially working 160 innings for the first time since 2014.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A's (+130, 9.5)

The Angels and Athletics open a three-game American League West division series that certainly means more to the visiting team than the home team.

The Angels sit only 1.5 games back of the Twins for the second wildcard spot in the A.L. and will be looking to sweep the rival A's this week. Meanwhile, the A's are daydreaming about their upcoming off-season vacation in Cabo.

The A's are coming off a terrible road trip where they went 0-6 and will send Chris Smith to the mound today in an attempt to stop the bleeding - we don't think he's exactly the coagulant they need on this day.

Smith is 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA in 8 starts this season. Those numbers aren't great, but he's been even worse over his last five starting assignments at 0-3 with an ERA of 8.14 and a WHIP of 1.521.

Right-hander Parker Bridwell gets the ball for the Angels today and he has been nothing short of tremendous in his rookie season. The Angels are 12-2 in his 14 career starts and they have never lost a Bridwell start on the road with a team win/loss record of 6-0. Bridwell owns a road ERA of 2.00, a WHIP of 1.03, and an opponent's on base percentage of only .266.

Pick: Angels -140

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-150, 8.5)

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers meet again for three games this week. The D-Backs completed a three-game sweep of the Dodgers last week at Chase Field and the two teams will reconvene this week at Dodger Stadium.

The Diamondbacks come to town as winners of 10 games in a row, and 12 of their last 13, and will send lefty Robbie Ray to the hill tonight.

In Robbie Ray's (he has one of those names where you have to use both first and last) two starts since returning from the disabled list (concussion) he seems back to his normal self at 2-0 with an ERA of 1.54 and a WHIP of 0.857. In his two starts at Dodger Stadium this season, Robbie Ray owns an ERA of 1.50 with a WHIP of 1.333.

His mound opponent this evening will be left-hander Rich Hill. The D-Backs banged Hill around last week to the tune of six earned runs in only 3.2 innings of work, but that is the lone blemish on Hill's resume over the last two months. In fact, take away that start last week and Hill's ERA over his previous 11 outings is only 2.38.

Hill has been tremendous at home with an ERA of 3.17, a WHIP of 1.17, and an opponent's on base percentage of only .297. In 10 starts at Dodger Stadium this season, the average total runs per game in Rich Hill starts is only 6.50.

This one definitely feels like a pitchers duel, and the total feels too high.

Pick: Under 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 133-123-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (14-8, 3.36 ERA, $-287)

Jake Arrieta was just awarded the National League's "Pitcher of the Month" award for August, and for good reason. In six starts last month, Arrieta was 4-1 with an ERA of 1.21 and a WHIP of 1.045.

Arrieta and the Cubbies are -180 road favorites today in Pittsburgh against Chad Kuhl and the Pirates.

Slumping: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds (4-7, 7.51 ERA, $-449)

It has certainly been a rough return to Major League Baseball for Reds' right-hander Homer Bailey.

In 13 starts since returning to the rotation after surgery to remove bone spurs in his pitching elbow, Bailey owns a team win/loss record of 4-9 with an ERA of 7.51. Over his last five starts the Reds are just 1-4 and Bailey owns an ERA of 7.83 to go along with a WHIP of 1.8696.

Homer and the Reds are +115 underdogs at home today against Chase Anderson and the Brewers.

Monday's Top Trends

* Under is 17-4 in Rafael Montero's last 21 starts overall. Phillies/Mets Total: 9.
* The Cleveland Indians are 15-2 in their last 17 road games. -240 today at White Sox.
* The Colorado Rockies are 14-2 in Chad Bettis' last 16 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. -165 today vs. Giants.
* Over is 9-0 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay between the Rays and Twins. MIN/TB Total: 8.5

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Wind, wind - the order of the day is wind. Let's get right into it...

Royals at Tigers (Total: 9) - 16-20 mile per hour wind blowing from right to left.
Phillies at Mets (Total: 9) - 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to right center field.
Brewers at Reds (Total: 10) - 15-17 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
Yankees at Orioles (Total: 9.5) - 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right center field.
Indians at White Sox (Total: 10) - 17-19 mile per hour wind blowing out to left center field.
Cubs at Pirates (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
Angels at A's (Total: 9.5) - 11-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field.
Blue Jays at Red Sox (Total: 9.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field.