MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, April 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Pirates @ Cubs
Glasnow allowed five runs in 1.2 IP in his first ’17 star, a 7-1 loss to the Reds.
Arrieta is 2-0, 2.77 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Pirates lost four of their last five games, scoring 12 runs (under 4-1). Chicago won four of its last six games, last four of which stayed under the total.
Mets @ Marlins
deGrom is 0-0, 1.50 in his first two ’17 starts (under 2-0).
Conley was losing pitcher in 16th inning Thursday; he allowed one run in five IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, an 8-1 win over the Mets Sunday.
Mets won five of their last six games, scoring 30 runs in last four; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Miami lost three of last five games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Phillies @ Nationals
Hellickson is 1-0, 0.90 in his first two ’17 starts (under 2-0).
Roark is 2-0, 5.73 in his first two ’17 starts (over 2-0). .
Phillies lost their last four games; under is 3-1 in their road games. Washington won five of seven home games; under is 4-3 in their home games.
Padres @ Braves
Richard is 1-1, 3.21 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Dickey allowed six runs in 5.2 IP in his first ’17 start, a 6-4 loss in Pittsburgh.
Atlanta is off to a 3-6 start; six of their last seven games went over the total. Padres are 3-5 in first eight road games, with six of last seven staying under.
Brewers @ Reds
Davies is 0-2, 10.61 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Finnegan is 1-0, 1.00 in two starts this month (under 1-0-1).
Brewers won their last four games, allowing total of eight runs. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Cincinnati won seven of its last ten games; three of their last five stayed under.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Corbin is 1-1, 2.70 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Maeda is 1-1, 6.30 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Arizona won six of its last nine games; four of their last five stayed under the total. Dodgers are 4-1 at home; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Rockies @ Giants
Chatwood is 0-2, 6.17 in his first two ’17 starts (under 2-0).
Moore is 1-1, 4.73 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Colorado won four of its six road games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Giants won four of their last six games; four of their last five games stayed under.
American League
Tigers @ Indians
Verlander is 1-0, 2.03 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Kluber is 0-1, 6.00 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Detroit won six of its last eight games; over is 3-0 in its road games. Cleveland lost six of its last seven games; over is 7-4 in its games this month.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Asher is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-7, 5.88 in 12 MLB starts, made with Philly the last two years. He threw 4.1 scoreless innings in his only AAA start this month.
Estrada 0-1, 5.73 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Orioles won seven of its first nine games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Toronto is off to an awful 1-9 start (under 7-3).
Rays @ Red Sox
Odorizzi is 1-1, 4.50 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Sale is 0-1, 1.23 in his first two Boston stars (under 2-0).
Tampa Bay lost three of its last four games; four of their last five games went over. Boston is 3-5 in its last eight games; under is 6-4 in all their games this season.
White Sox @ Twins
Quintana 0-2, 6.17 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Santana is 2-0, 0.69 in his first two ’17 starts (under 1-0-1).
Chicago won its last three games; six of its last seven games stayed under. Minnesota lost three of its last four games; six of its las seven games stayed under.
Angels @ Royals
Shoemaker is 0-0, 8.68 in his first two ’17 starts, both Angel wins (over 2-0).
Karns allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his first ’17 start, a 5-4 loss in Houston.
Angels lost their last three games; five of their last six games went over total. Kansas City lost three of its last five games; under is 3-1 in their home games.
Astros @ A’s
McCullers 1-0, 2.77 in his first two ’17 stars (over 1-1).
Manaea is 0-1, 7.94 in his first two ’17 starts, (over 1-1).
Astros won four of last five games; five of their last six games went over. Oakland is 2-3 in its first five home games (under is 7-4 in all their games).
Rangers @ Mariners
Cashner is making his first ’17 start; over last four years, he is 26-43 in 103 big league starts.
Paxton hasn’t allowed a run in 13 IP in two starts this month (1-0, 0.00, under 2-0).
Texas won three of its last five games; three of their last four games went over. Seattle lost eight of its first 11 games; four of its last six games went over the total.
Interleague
Martinez 0-1, 4.26 in his first two ’17 starts.
Sabathia is 1-0, 2.45 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Cardinals lost four of last five games; over is 3-2-1 in their last six. Bronx won its last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Pitt-Chi: Glasnow 0-1; Arrieta 2-0
NY-Mia: deGrom 1-1; Conley 1-0
Phil-Wash: Hellickson 2-0; Roark 2-0
SD-Atl: Richard 1-1; Dickey 0-1
Mil-Cin: Davies 0-2; Finneran 2-0
Az-LA: Corbin 1-1; Maeda 1-1
Colo-SF: Chatwood 0-2; Moore 1-1
American League
Det-Clev: Verlander 2-0; Kluber 1-1
Balt-Tor: Asher 0-0; Estrada 0-2
TB-Bos: Oddorizi 1-1; Sale 1-1
Chi-Minn: Quintana 0-2; Santana 2-0
LAA-KC: Shoemaker 2-0; Karns 0-1
Hst-A’s: McCullers 1-1; Manaea 0-2
Tex-Sea: Cashner 0-0; Paxton 1-1
Interleague
StL-NYY: Martinez 1-1; Sabathia 2-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Pitt-Chi: Glasnow 1-1; Arrieta 0-2
NY-Mia: deGrom 1-2; Conley 0-1
Phil-Wash: Hellickson 0-2; Roark 1-2
SD-Atl: Richard 0-2; Dickey 0-0
Mil-Cin: Davies 1-2; Finneran 0-2
Az-LA: Corbin 0-2; Maeda 1-2
Colo-SF: Chatwood 0-2; Moore 0-2
American League
Det-Clev: Verlander 1-2; Kluber 0-2
Balt-Tor: Asher 0-0; Estrada 0-2
TB-Bos: Oddorizi 1-2; Sale 0-2
Chi-Minn: Quintana 0-2; Santana 0-2
LAA-KC: Shoemaker 2-2; Karns 1-1
Hst-A’s: McCullers 1-2; Manaea 0-2
Tex-Sea: Cashner 0-0; Paxton 0-2
Interleague
StL-NYY: Martinez 0-2; Sabathia 0-2
Umpires
National League
Pitt-Chi: Last five Porter games stayed under the total.
NY-Mia: Over is 10-2-1 in las 12 Dimuro games.
Phil-Wash: Favorites won nine of last 11 Estabrook games.
SD-Atl: Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Iassogna games.
Mil-Cin: Six of last seven Cooper games stayed under.
Az-LA: Six of last eight Blaser games stayed under total.
Colo-SF: Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen BWelke games.
American League
Det-Clev: Underdogs won last five Guccione games.
Balt-Tor: Over is 7-3-2 in last dozen Reynolds games.
TB-Bos: Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Tumpane games.
Chi-Minn: Five of last seven Miller games stayed under.
LAA-KC: Five of last six Hickox games stayed under.
Hst-A’s: Underdogs won nine of last 12 Barry games (0-2 this year).
Tex-Sea: Last five Culbreth games stayed under the total.
Interleague
StL-NYY: Favorites won nine of last eleven Little games.
Armadillosports.com
Saturday's Picks and Analysis
By Andrew Caley
Covers.com
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-125, 8 )
Both the White Sox and Twins have gotten off to somewhat surprising starts as both have winning records through the first two weeks of the season thanks to pitching.
The Twins are 6-4 thanks to the likes of Phil Hughes, who has come out of the gates strong with two wins in two starts after a tough 2016 campaign and Ervin Santana, who is one of the league leaders in ERA at 0.69 through two starts.
Santana gets the start Saturday in a rematch from last Sunday against Chicago’s Jose Quintana. Santana threw six innings of two hit ball in a 4-1 Twins win. Quintana was not too shabby as well, allowing two runs on five hits in 6.1 innings. The White Sox staff in general ranks second in the majors in ERA at 2.53.
Additionally, the ChiSox and Twins are just average hitting teams, ranking 18th and 23nd in batting average respectively. Expect more of the same from these teams.
Pick: Under 8
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (+130, 8 )
The Astros offense is starting to heat up. Houston, which has one of the deepest lineups one-through-nine in the bigs, is averaging eight runs per game over their last three games.
Houston ranks fourth in the MLB in batting average early on, lead of course by Jose Altuve, who is of course is hitting .326 and leading the team with 14 hits, while George Springer has notched five dingers in the teams’ first 10 games.
To make matters worse for opponents, the Astros’ 1-2 punch of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers have been dealing to start the season. The Houston staff in general ranks 5th in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. McCullers takes the mound Saturday and looks to add to his 17 strikeouts in just 13 inning of work.
While the A’s are a better itching team than most would have though, they still have a sub-par offense and oh yeah they’ve lost eight straight games against the ‘Stros.
Pick: Astros -140
Record to date: 0-2
Streaking and Slumping Pitchers
Streaking: James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (1-0, 0.00 ERA, $0)
James Paxton has been all but unhittable in his first two starts of the season, allowing no runs on just six hits through 13 innings of work. However, he faces a new opponent on Sunday in the Rangers, as his first two starts both came against the Astros.
The Astros managed to hit just .184 off Paxton in his first two starts, resulting in a sparkling 0.69 WHIP. He has also racked up 13 strikeouts to just three walks this season.
Slumping: Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies (0-2, 6.35 ERA, $-302)
Tyler Chatwood hasn’t been terrible in his first two starts for the Rockies this season, but he certainly hasn’t been good either, as it is clear he is catching too much of the plate early on.
While he does have a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, opponents are batting a hefty .383 against him early on, which includes four home runs. Chatwood and the Rockies visit the Giants Sunday.
Saturday’s Top Trends
* The New York Yankees are 5-0 in their last five games overall. Yankees -110 vs. Cardinals
* The Milwaukee Brewers are 4-0 on the road this season. Brewers -107 @ Reds
* The Houston Astros are 8-0 in the last eight meetings against the Oakland A's. Astros -140
* The Cleveland Indians are 6-0 in Corey Kluber's last six starts vs. American League Central opponents. Indians -150 vs. Tigers
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Balls could be flying over the Green Monster in Boston on Saturday as there is a strong hitters wind in the forecast. Winds will be blowing out over the famous left field fence at 20 miles per hour. Temperatures for the game will be in the low 60's with partly cloudy skies. The Red Sox host the Rays Saturday, where the total is currently on the board at 8.5.
UMP Of The Day
Corey Blaser: The Arizona Diamondbacks are happy to see Blaser behind the plate for their Saturday night road game at the Los Angeles Dodgers. The D-backs are 7-0 in their last seven games when Blaser is calling balls and strikes. Blaser also has been the opposite of a “homer”, with the road team going 6-0 in the last six games he has officiated, including 2-0 in 2017. Blaser also has a strike rate of 63.1 percent and is 0-2 O/U this season. Arizona is a +152 road dog tonight with a total of 7.5 on the board.