MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, April 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Pirates @ Marlins
Nova is 2-2, 2.67 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Straily is 1-0, 2.60 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
Pirates won four of last six games; they’re 4-6 on road (under 8-2). Miami is 3-6 in its last nine games; they’re 4-3 at home. Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Mets @ Nationals
Wheeler is 1-2, 5.57 in four starts this month (over 3-0-1).
Strasburg is 2-0, 2.89 in four starts this month (under 4-0).
Mets lost 10 of last 12 games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Washington won 10 of last 12 games; they’re 6-4 at home. Last five Nationals’ games went over.
Braves @ Brewers
Garcia is 0-0, 2.92 in his last two starts (over 3-1).
Nelson is 0-1, 9.28 in his last two starts (over 2-2).
Braves won last three games but are 5-9 on road; over is 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Milwaukee won three of last four games; over is 9-1 in its last ten home games.
Reds @ St Louis
Arroyo is 2-2, 6.86 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Leake is 3-0, 1.40 in his last three starts (under 3-1).
Reds lost four in row, eight of last nine games; their last seven games went over. St Louis is 9-2 in its last 11 games, 6-1 in last seven at home. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Anderson is 0-3, 7.65 in his las four starts (over 4-1).
Greinke is 2-2, 2.81 in his last four starts (over 4-1).
Rockies lost three of their last four games; under is 8-1 in their last nine road tilts. Arizona is 11-4 at home (over 11-4).
Phillies @ Dodgers
Eflin is 0-0, 2.25 in two starts this month (under 1-0-1).
McCarthy is 3-0, 2.25 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Phillies won six of their last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six. Dodgers won three of last four games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five home games.
Padres @ Giants
Chacin is 1-2, 5.21 in his last three starts (under 3-1 in last four).
Cain is 2-0, 1.00 in his last three starts (under 2-1-1).
Padres lost six of their last seven games; five of their last seven road games went over. San Francisco lost six of its last nine games; under is 9-1-2 in their home games.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays
Andriese is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Liriano is 1-2, 2.08 in his last three starts (over 2-2). Over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Toronto is 4-8 in its last 12 games, 2-8 at home- their last four games went over.
Orioles @ Bronx
Jimenez is 1-0, 5.95 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Pineda is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
Orioles won six of last nine games; they’re 6-4 on road, but blew an 11-4 lead in 7h inning last nite. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Bronx won 13 of last 16 games, is 9-1 at home- three of their last four games stayed under.
Mariners @ Indians
Gallardo is 1-2, 4.84 in four starts his month (over 2-2).
Salazar is 1-2, 4.76 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Mariners won four of last five games; under is 9-5-1 in their road games. Cleveland won seven of last ten games; six of their last seven games stayed under.
White Sox @ Tigers
Holland is 2-2, 4.37 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Fulmer is 2-1, 2.88 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
White Sox won their last five games, scoring 40 runs. Under is 13-6 in their last 19 games. Detroit is 6-5 at home; over is 6-1-2 in their last nine games overall.
Angels @ Rangers
Chavez is 2-2, 3.52 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Darvish is 2-2, 2.39 in his last four starts- three of those four stayed under.
Angels won six of their last seven games; their last ten road games stayed under. Texas won six of its last nine home games; under is 8-1-1 in their last en.
A’s @ Astros
Triggs is 3-1, 3.63 in four starts (over 2-2).
Musgrove is 1-1, 5.91 in four starts this month (over 2-2). .
A’s lost their last five games, scoring 12 runs. Under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Houston won five of last six home tilts; under is 9-3 in their home games.
Twins @ Royals
Hughes is 3-1, 5.57 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Hammel is 0-3, 5.30 in four starts this month (under 3-1); Royals scored nine runs in the four games.
Twins lost seven of last 11 games; they’re 6-4 on road. Over is 5-1-3 in their last nine games. Kansas City lost its last eight games; they’re 5-4 at home. Under is 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.
Interleague
Cubs @ Red Sox
Lackey is 0-3, 6.00 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
Wright is 1-2, 9.68 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Cubs won six of their last nine games; they’re 8-5 on road. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games. Boston lost four of its last six games; seven of their last eight games stayed under.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Pitt-Mia: Nova 2-2; Straily 3-1
NY-Wsh: Wheeler 1-3; Strasburg 3-1
Atl-Mil: Garcia 2-2; Nelson 2-2
Cin-StL: Arroyo 2-2; Leake 3-1
Colo-Az: Anderson 2-3; Greinke 3-2
Phil-LA: Eflin 2-0; McCarthy 3-1
SD-SF: Chacin 2-3; Cain 3-1
American League
TB-Tor: Andriese 2-2; Liriano 1-3
Balt-NY: Jimenez 4-0; Pineda 3-1
Sea-Clev: Gallardo 1-3; Salazar 2-2
Chi-Det: Holland 2-2; Fulmer 3-1
LA-Tex: Chavez 2-2; Darvish 2-3
A’s-Hst: Triggs 3-1; Musgrove 2-2
Min-KC: Hughes 3-1; Hammel 0-4
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Lackey 1-3; Wright 1-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Pitt-Mia: Nova 0-4; Straily 0-4
NY-Wsh: Wheeler 2-4; Strasburg 0-4
Atl-Mil: Garcia 1-4; Nelson 1-4
Cin-StL: Arroyo 1-4; Leake 1-4
Colo-Az: Anderson 1-5; Greinke 0-5
Phil-LA: Eflin 1-2; McCarthy 1-4
SD-SF: Chacin 2-5; Cain 2-4
American League
TB-Tor: Andriese 3-4; Liriano 1-4
Balt-NY: Jimenez 2-4; Pineda 2-4
Sea-Clev: Gallardo 2-4; Salazar 2-4
Chi-Det: Holland 0-4; Fulmer 2-4
LA-Tex: Chavez 0-4; Darvish 0-5
A’s-Hst: Triggs 1-4; Musgrove 1-4
Min-KC: Hughes 3-4; Hammel 0-4
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Lackey 4-4; Wright 3-4
Umpires
National League
Pitt-Mia: Four of five Timmons games went over.
NY-Wsh: Three of four Tumpane games stayed under.
Atl-Mil: Favorites won five of last six Wolcott games.
Cin-StL: Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Marquez games.
Colo-Az: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Estabrook games.
Phil-LA: Favorites won five of six Cederstrom games.
SD-SF: Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Muchlinski games.
American League
TB-Tor: Three of four Holbrook games went over.
Balt-NY: Last six LBarrett games stayed under.
Sea-Clev: Under is 8-3 in last 11 Meals games.
Chi-Det: Three of last four Eddings games went over.
LA-Tex: Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Hamari games.
A’s-Hst: Underdogs won three of las four West games.
Min-KC: Over is 14-2 in last sixteen Gonzalez games.
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Three of four BWelke games went over the total.
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Before the season started the Colorado Rockies were 60/1 (Bet $100 to win $6,000) to win the World Series and the Arizona Diamondbacks were 100/1 (Bet $100 to win $10,000). After just one month of play those odds have been slashed in half as both have controlled the National League West division. They hook up in Phoenix for a three-game set in what is the most intriguing series of the weekend.
Most of us came into spring training with the mindset that the Giants and Dodgers would be battling once again for the NL West crown. The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and the Giants have Bruce Bochy. That's just how the order of things work in the NL West, or at least that's the way things have been. So far in 2017, the Dodgers and Giants both have losing records.
Arizona (15-9) took over first-place by a half-game last night with a 6-2 win over the Padres following Colorado's 16-5 afternoon loss to the Nationals. The Rockies (14-9) pitching staff showed its first sign of being over-matched by any team allowing the Nats 46 runs over the four-game series in which Washington won the last three.
The Diamondbacks recipe for success has been playing at Chase Field where they've gone 11-3 averaging 7.2 runs a game while batting .320. In 10 road games they've gone 4-6. They gotten steady starting pitching with a bullpen that has been surprisingly good. New closer Fernando Rodney had started the season going 6-for-6 in save opportunities until giving up five runs in the ninth against San Diego on Wednesday.
All the Arizona bats seem to be clicking at the same time with seven of its regulars hitting .291 or higher. Buried within all the impressive hitting numbers is the fact that their 27 steals lead baseball. The combination of speed and power have helped Arizona be the most profitable team at +8.4 units. Colorado is fourth-best at +6.0 units.
The Diamondbacks have gone 12-7 at home against the Rockies in the past three seasons and the Over has gone 12-5-2. In all meetings the past three seasons, including Coors Field, 25 of the 36 games have gone Over. This season, Arizona has gone 10-3-1 to the Over at Chase Field. Look for the Over trend to continue this weekend.
Scheduled rotation: Robbie Ray (2-0) vs Kyle Freeland (2-1), Zack Greinke (2-2) vs. Tyler Anderson (1-3), Patrick Corbin (2-3) vs. German Marquez (0-1)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -175, Rockies +155
Here's a look some of the series I'm excited to watch this weekend:
Baltimore (14-6) at New York Yankees (13-7)
Scheduled rotation: Gausman (1-2) vs. Sabathia (2-1), Jimenez (1-0) vs. Pineda (2-1), Miley (1-1) vs. Montgomery (1-1)
Series Price: Yankees -160, Orioles +135
The Yankees come off a five game road trip, winning three of them -- the last two at Fenway Park. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball having won 12 of their last 15, including going 8-1 on their only home stand. Baltimore comes in as the third most profitable team (+7.4 units) and have won six of its last eight road games. They are the AL East leader. This is what Baltimore does every year under Buck Showalter. They also like facing C.C. Sabathia, going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
New York Mets (8-13) at Washington (16-6)
Scheduled rotation: DeGrom (0-1) vs. Scherzer (3-1), Wheeler (1-2) vs. Strasburg (2-0), Syndergaard (1-1) vs. Ross (1-0)
Series Price: Nationals -200, Mets +170
The Mets are on a 1-10 run have their highest rated daily player, Yoenis Cespedes, doubtful with a strained hamstring. They look every bit like a last-place team. They've belted 30 homers, but bat an NL-low .209. They've been hard to watch nightly. The first-place Nationals are the complete opposite. They're fun to watch leading baseball with 6.3 runs a game, a .284 batting average and .842 OPS. Washington comes off a sweep at Coors Field and have won 10 of its last 11, which includes a sweep last weekend against the Mets at Citi Field. Another sweep here?
Chicago Cubs (12-9) at Boston (11-10)
Scheduled rotation: Arrieta (3-0) vs Pomeranz (1-1), Lackey (1-3) vs. Wright (1-2), Hendricks (2-1) vs. Rodriguez (1-1)
Series Price: Cubs -120, Red Sox +100
Theo Epstein built teams that ended Boston's 86 year drought and he also ended Chicago's 108 year wait. He's a baseball hero on a level never seen before. He's a Hall-of-Famer now and a Cubs-Red Sox world series is certainly a possibility. They're both favorites to win the pennant -- Cubs are 2-to-1 while the Red Sox are 3-to-1 co-favorites with two others. The two teams last met for three in 2014 at Fenway Park with the Cubs sweeping.
The Sox haven't found their groove yet this season losing four of their last five. The Cubs have won six of their last eight and taken over the NL Central lead. Boston has gone 7-0-1 to the Under in its last eight games. The best news for Cubs is they have to face Chris Sale, who pitched Thursday in a 3-0 loss to the Yankees. The Cubs look collectively better than the Red Sox right now; the series price looks cheap.
Cincinnati (10-12) at St. Louis (11-11)
Scheduled rotation: Adelman (0-0) vs. Lynn (2-1), Arroyo (2-2) vs. Leake (3-1), Garrett (2-2) vs. Wacha (2-1)
Series Price: Cardinals -215, Reds +175
Cincinnati took two of three at St. Louis three weeks ago, but both these teams are playing drastically different right now. Everything I hated about the Reds that I was wrong about in the first three weeks is starting to come true again as they've lost seven of their last eight. The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 and believe that's the real version of the squad, showed what they hope is their real team, not the team that started 3-9.
With Cincinnati's pitching staff coming back to earth allowing 48 runs in its last five, the total Over in this series might offer value. St. Louis has gone Over in in last four games and Cincinnati is on a six game Over streak.