MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, August 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Giants @ Nationals
Stratton is 0-1, 6.17 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Giants’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Jackson is 2-2, 5.11 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Washington split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-1
Giants won four of last five games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road tilts. SF is 8-10 in road series openers. Washington won five of its last seven games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Nationals are 11-8 in home series openers.
Mets @ Phillies
Matz is 0-4, 11.03 in his last six starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-1
Nola is 2-1, 1.73 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Phillies are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-6
Mets won three of last four road games; over is 9-3 in last 12 road games. Phillies won three of their last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Rockies @ Marlins
Hoffman is 0-2, 7.65 in his last four starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Colorado is 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1
Nicolino is making his first start since June 24; he is 0-1, 6.75 in five starts this year (over 2-2-1). — their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4
Colorado lost three of last four games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Miami lost five of last eight games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Reds @ Brewers
Adleman is 0-5, 7.13 in his last seven starts (under 4-2-1). Reds are 1-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-3
Suter is 1-1, 3.63 in his last four starts (under 5-2-1). Milwaukee is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2-1
Reds won four of last five games; their last six games went over total. Milwaukee lost its last six games; under is 9-3-2 in their last 14 games.
Braves @ Cardinals
Sims is 0-2, 3.00 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0); Braves scored three runs in the two games, both of which were at home— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Martinez is 2-2, 4.86 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Cardinals are 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-2
Braves are 3-11 in last 14 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. St Louis won its last seven games, scoring 62 runs; their last five games went over total.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Lester is 3-0, 3.03 in his last five starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13 starts. Cubs won his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-4
Corbin is 0-2, 14.00 in his last two starts; his last five starts went over. Arizona is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-3
Cubs lost six of last nine games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Arizona lost five of last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Padres @ Dodgers
Chacin is 3-1, 3.33 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. San Diego is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-3
Ryu is 2-0, 2.08 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 4-0 in his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2
San Diego lost four of last six games; four of their last five games went over. Dodgers are 46-9 in their last 55 games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12.
American League
Boston @ New York
Pomeranz is 5-0, 2.66 in his last eight starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 4-4 in his road outings— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9
Severino is 4-0, 1.40 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. New York is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-3
Red Sox won eight of their last nine games; under is 5-1 in their last six. New York is 4-2 in its last six games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Twins @ Tigers
Berrios is 0-2, 5.63 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Minnesota is 0-5 in his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2
Zimmerman is 1-1, 2.86 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Detroit is 5-4 in his home starts, but lost last three— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11
Minnesota won its last six games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Detroit lost six of last seven games; over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
Indians @ Rays
Clevinger is 0-1, 8.10 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Cleveland is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
Archer is 1-0, 4.00 in his last three starts; under is 8-6-1 in his last 15 starts. Rays are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-4-5
Indians lost four of last six games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games, scoring total of eight runs; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 home games.
Astros @ Rangers
Fiers is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over. Houston is 7-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-3
Ross is 0-1, 18.00 in his last two starts (over 5-2). Texas is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1
Astros lost last six road games; over is 15-5 in their last 20 road games. Texas lost four of last six home games; under is 8-5-1 in their last 14 home games.
Royals @ White Sox
Kennedy is 0-2, 9.90 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-12-3
Shields is 0-3, 8.54 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Chicago is 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-2
Royals lost seven of last eight games; six of their last seven games went over. Chicago won their last four games after a 3-20 skid; under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Orioles @ A’s
Bundy is 3-0, 3.76 in his last four starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. Baltimore is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-2
Manaea is 0-1, 9.00 in his last four starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Oakland is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-5
Baltimore won nine of last 14 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11. Oakland lost nine of last 13 home games (under 9-2-1).
Angels @ Mariners
JCRamirez is 2-3, 4.01 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Angels are 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-5
ERamirez is 0-1, 8.64 in two starts for Seattle (over 2-0)— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Angels are 8-3 in last 11 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Mariners won eight of last 12 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven.
Interleague
Pirates @ Blue Jays
Williams is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Pirates are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2
Rowley is making his first MLB start; he was 3-4, 2.82 in 10 AAA games (six starts).
Pittsburgh won seven of last nine games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Blue Jays are 5-4 in last nine games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-1; Jackson 2-2
NY-Phil: Matz 3-8; Nola 9-9
Colo-Mia: Hoffman 8-6; Nicolino 3-2
Cin-Mil: Adleman 8-12; Suter 3-5
Atl-StL: Sims 0-2; Martinez 11-12
Chi-Az: Lester 14-10; Corbin 10-13
SD-LA; Chacin 13-10; Ryu 8-8
American League
Bos-NY; Pomeranz 14-8; Severino 13-9
Min-Det: Berrios 10-6; Zimmerman 8-14
Clev-TB: Clevinger 7-7; Archer 13-11
Hst-Tex: Fiers 13-9; Ross 4-3
KC-Chi: Kennedy 10-11; Shields 4-8
Balt-A’s: Bundy 14-8; Manaea 10-11
LA-Sea: JCRamirez 12-10; ERamirez 1-1 (6-2)
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Williams 8-9; Rowley 0-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-2; Jackson 2-4
NY-Phil: Matz 5-11; Nola 4-18
Colo-Mia: Hoffman 5-14; Nicolino 3-5
Cin-Mil: Adleman 6-20; Suter 0-8
Atl-StL: Sims 1-2; Martinez 9-23
Chi-Az: Lester 9-24; Corbin 12-23
SD-LA; Chacin 9-23; Ryu 7-16
American League
Bos-NY; Pomeranz 6-22; Severino 5-22
Min-Det: Berrios 4-16; Zimmerman 8-2
Clev-TB: Clevinger 1-14; Archer 5-24
Hst-Tex: Fiers 7-22; Ross 4-7
KC-Chi: Kennedy 4-21; Shields 4-12
Balt-A’s: Bundy 3-22; Manaea 7-21
LA-Sea: JCRamirez 10-22; ERamirez 6-10
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Williams 5-17; Rowley 0-0
Umpires
National League
NY-Phil: Under is 6-1 in last seven Blaser games.
Colo-Mia: Five of last six Fletcher games went over.
Cin-Mil: Under is 11-2-2 in last 15 Fairchild games.
Atl-StL: Over is 4-2 in Barber games this season.
Chi-Az: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Wegner games.
SD-LA; Home team in 8-3 in last 11 Demuth games.
American League
Bos-NY: Over is 13-3-2 in last 18 Gonzalez games.
Min-Det: Under is 9-4 in last thirteen O’Nora games.
Clev-TB: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cuzzi games.
Hst-Tex: Over is 5-0-2 in last seven Barksdale games.
KC-Chi: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Porter games.
Balt-A’s: Under is 6-2 in last eight Lentz games.
LA-Sea: Five of last six Hoye games stayed under.
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Baker games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 62-49 AL, favorites -$273
AL @ NL– 61-56 NL, favorites -$537
Total: 117-107 AL, favorites -$810
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 57-53-3
AL @ NL: Over 63-48-7
Total: Over 120-101-10
Armadillosports.com
Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Cardinals (7-0 past seven overall)
The Cardinals have ripped off seven consecutive games to rocket up the standings in the National League Central, sitting just one game back of the defending champion and archrival Cubs. St. Louis now owns the best home record in the NL Central at 34-26, and they also have the best run differential in the division at plus-57. The Cards continue their series against the Braves, a team which has dropped four in a row and six straight on the road. St. Louis has won four straight at home, they're 4-0 in their past four at home against right-handed starting pitchers and 6-0 in their past six overall vs. RHP. In addition, the Cardinals are 21-7 in their past 28 against NL East foes.
Coldest team: Royals (0-5 past five games, 2-10 past 12 overall)
The Royals ripped off nine straight victories from July 19-28, but it has been a slow burn back down the American League Central standings since. They're a dismal 3-11 over the past 14 games since that lengthy winning streak, slipping into third place behind the first-place Indians and second-place Twins. The Royals have come up empty in each of the past six road outings, they're 0-6 in their past six road games vs. RHP and they're 0-5 in their past five vs. RHP overall. They turn to Ian Kennedy to stem the tide of losing. TheRoyals have won eight of his past 11 starts and they're 6-2 over his past eight tries on the road. It won't be easy, though, as K.C. has dropped four in a row at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Hottest pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees (9-4, 2.91 ERA)
Severino has won four consecutive wins, going 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA, and he has rattled off five quality starts over his past six outings since his last setback on July 2 in Houston. He has been impressive at home, going 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA across 10 starts at home while the opponent is hitting just .209 against him over 63 innings at Yankee Stadium this season. The Yankees have won seven of their past 10 at home, and they're 6-1 over Severino's past seven at home. The Red Sox had won eight in a row, but they lost in Friday's series opener and they're just 1-7 over their past eight trips to the Bronx. New York is also an impressive 10-3 against the past 13 in this series. And if you like totals, the 'under' is 5-0 in Severino's past five assignments against the BoSox.
Coldest pitcher: Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers (7-9, 5.27 ERA)
It has been a trying season for Zimmermann in The D, as he has served up 24 homers while the opponent is hitting .295 against him over 126 1/3 innings across 22 starts. It's a tough assignment for Zimmermann on Saturday, as he tries to cool off the Twins. Minnesota has won six in a row, including four straight on the road, and they're 5-0 in their past five against a right-handed starter. The Tigers are just 3-8 over Zimmermann's past 11 starts, they're 3-8 in his past 11 against divisional foes and 1-7 in his past eight tries against teams with a winning overall record.
Biggest UNDER run: Indians (4-0 past four overall)
Total bettors have cashed in on the Indians, as the under is 4-0 in their past four outings and 4-1 across their past five on the road. In addition, the under is 4-1-1 in the past six against AL East foes. Mike Clevinger has seen the under cash frequently in his starts, too, going 4-1 over his past five on the road and 4-1 in his past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is also 15-5 in his past 20 overall, while the under is 13-3-1 across the past 17 against teams with a winning overall record. Tampa Bay has been an under team lately, too, especially at home. The under is 7-1 in Tampa's past eight at home, and 18-7-1 in their past 26 against winning teams.
Biggest OVER run: Tigers (4-0 past four overall)
The 'over' has cashed in four in a row for Detroit, and each of their past four against a right-handed starting pitcher. In addition, the over is an impressive 34-16-3 across the past 53 divisional games for the Tigers. The over has been even more prominent with Zimmermann on the hill, going 12-3-1 in his past 16 at home, 12-2 over his past 14 inside the division and 21-10-2 in his past 33 starts overall. The over is also an impressive 6-1-1 in the past eight meetings with the Twins overall.
Matchup to watch: Athletics vs. Orioles
The Orioles turn to Dylan Bundy to try and stay hot in Oakland. The O's are 6-1 over their past seven against left-handed starting pitching and 4-1 in their past five on the road against lefties. Bundy has been hot, too, going 4-0 in his past four starts against AL West foes and 6-1 in his past seven against teams with a losing overall record. The O's haven't had a lot of success in recent years in the Bay Area, however, as Baltimore is just 19-39 in their past 58 trips to Oakland. The A's haven't had much success with Sean Manaea on the hill, going 2-5 in his past seven starts and 1-5 over his past six against teams with a losing overall mark.
Betcha didn’t know: The Angels have gotten tremendous production from C.J. Cron lately, as he is 10-for-23 (.435) with a pair of home runs and seven RBI over his past six outings. He'll be looking to solve Erasmo Ramirez, who is not enjoying a revival in his second tour of duty in Seattle. Ramirez has been tagged for five home runs over 8 1/3 innings in a pair of outings since coming over from the Rays at the non-waiver trade deadline. However, he is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two outings against the Angels this season when he was a member of the Rays.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-240) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Twins (+110) at Tigers
Biggest line move: Padres (+300 to +240) at Dodgers
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Chicago Cubs (59-54) at Arizona (64-50)
Scheduled rotation: Lackey (9-9) vs. Walker (6-5), Lester (8-6) vs. Corbin (8-11), Arrieta (11-8 ) vs. Godley (5-4)
The Cubs have lost their past three series after it appeared they were on the right track to winning the NL Central. The Cubs had won 14 of their first 17 games since the break, but the Diamondbacks fought back at Wrigley Field to win the final two of a three game set. The the Nationals took two of three and then they lost two of three to start a road trip in San Francisco. Still, the Cubs have won 12 of their last 15 on the road. The Diamondbacks come off two losses to the Dodgers, which was kind of surprising since Arizona is 41-20 in their last 61 at Chase Field. The Cubs have won nine of the past 13 meetings.
San Diego (50-64) at L.A. Dodgers (81-33)
Scheduled rotation: Richard (5-12) vs. Hill (8-4), Chacin (11-8 ) vs. Ryu (4-6), Perdomo (6-6) vs. Maeda (10-4)
These Dodgers are amazing and they deserve to be a massive -700 favorite to win this series at Station Casinos sports books. They're 46-8 over their past 54 games. They have the best record in baseball, most money won (+31.3 units), best starting pitching and best relievers. The Dodgers +1.8 margin of victory is also the best in baseball. They've also won 51 of the past 74 meetings against the Padres who come in losing six of their last eight.. The Dodgers have won seven of nine against them this season.
San Francisco (46-70) at Washington (68-45)
Scheduled rotation: Stratton (0-2) vs. Jackson (2-2), Samardzija (7-11) vs. Scherzer (12-5), Moore (3-12) vs. Strasburg (10-3)
Both teams come in winning four of their last five and both teams come in having won two of three from the Cubs in the last week. The Nationals get some good news that Stephen Strasburg is back, but it will still be interesting to see how he fares on Sunday. They can't win it all without him. Washington swept the Giants at AT&T Park in May. They won all three by at least two runs and two of the games stayed Under the total which has been a common theme between these two. The Under is 16-4-1 in the past 21 meetings. Something to think about for Friday's Game 1 is that the Giants are 13-23 in the first game of a series this season and the Nationals are 23-14.
Colorado (65-49) at Miami (53-60)
Scheduled rotation: Gray (4-2) vs. Urena (10-5), Hoffman (6-3) vs. Nicolino (0-1), Marquez (9-4) vs. Worley (2-2)
The Rockies come out firing in the first game of a series this season by going 24-12. It's the main reason why the Rockies are +18.1 units on the season. Their pitching has been quite good with the bullpen actually shutting things down at Coors Field like never seen before. Greg Holland has made the biggest difference. They get high totals because of the altitude in Denver, but the number has been too big all season. Colorado is 60-48-6 to the Under this season, including their last three games. This will be the first meeting this season. Miami comes off losing three of four at Washington. The Rockies are currently on a 6-18 run in their last 24 road games.
Boston at N.Y. Yankees (60-53)
Scheduled rotation: Rodriguez (4-3) vs. Garcia (5-8 ), Pomeranz (11-4) vs. Severino (9-4), Sale (14-4) vs. TBA
Boston is smoking hot now riding an eight game win streak, but they've only won three in the past 12 meetings with the Yankees. Boston has a 4.5-game lead in the AL East over the Yankees. The Yankees had spent 62 days in first this season, but the last time was July 31. Since then it's been all Red Sox and Aaron Judge has dropped off his first-half pace considerably. The league is catching up with him. Once a triple-crown leader, he's now batting .294 and struck out 149 times in 476 at-bats. Starlin Castro and Matt Holliday are both on the 10-day disabled list. Eight of the past 11 meetings have stayed Under.
Minnesota (57-56) at Detroit (52-62)
Scheduled rotation: Gibson (6-9) vs. Sanchez (3-2), Berrios (10-5) vs. Zimmermann (7-9), Santana (12-7) vs. Boyd (5-6)
The Twins got themselves four games under .500 thanks to a lousy 3-9 run shortly after the All-Star break. They traded their closer and and signed Bartolo Colon for some reason. But just when we thought they were finally dead after thrilling us all summer as the underdog that could, there is still a heart beating. They've won five straight and Brian Dozier's bat has heated up just like it did in the second-half last season. They're now one game over .500 and face the Tigers who gave up long ago. The road is where most their success has been, going 30-23. However, history hasn't been kind to Minnesota in this battle. Detroit is 21-7 in the past 28 meetings.
Houston (71-43) at Texas (54-59)
Scheduled rotation: Morton (9-4) vs. Hamels (6-1), Fiers (7-6) vs. TBA, Keuchel (9-2) vs. Cashner (7-8 )
The Astros have been stumbling since the All-Star break going 11-14. Their latest series was the worst product Houston has displayed all season as they got swept on the south side by the White Sox. Is this the end of the Astros? Dallas Keuchel just lost to the White Sox. I expect them to rebound at some point, but you knew it would happen. They're bored right now witha 13 game lead in the AL West. Houston has taken seven of 10 from Texas this season improving their 35-75 record in the past 110 meetings. The Astros have been at their best on the road averaging seven runs a game. They've gone 38-17 in their last 55 road games and have gone 34-16-5 to the Over. That's a nice combo to play on this weekend. If one thing happens the other is more likely.
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Seattle Mariners -112
The Mariners and the Angels are going to be playing in Seattle with Erasmo Ramirez and JC Ramirez starting. The Mariners and the Angels are both still very alive for the AL Wild Card race, as the Mariners are currently tied with the Rays for the spot. The Angels have a chance, and since Mike Trout’s return, their offense has obviously gained a lot of firepower.
Erasmo Ramirez was one of the acquisitions that the Mariners made at the trade deadline, acquiring him from the Rays. Ramirez has been a relief pitcher for most of his career, but he has some experience starting, especially this season. He has an ERA of 5.10 and an xFIP of 4.10. His biggest change this season has been his ability to limit walks, as he has been walking less than 2 batters per nine innings. This is a great skill, but it hasn’t exactly led to great results, as is clear from the ERA. Ramirez is a pretty low ceiling starter, which is a lot of the reason that he made sense for the Mariners who have consistently targeted low risk players. I don’t think its likely Ramirez will be great with the Mariners, but he could provide quality starts consistently.
JC Ramirez is going to be starting for the Angels. Ramirez has been a really valuable pitcher for the Angels, largely because he’s been able to pitch a lot of innings for them. He has an ERA of 4.21, and an xFIP of 4.42. I don’t think JC Ramirez is an especially high ceiling pitcher, much like Erasmo Ramirez. Ultimately, I like the Mariners in this game largely because they are a slightly better team playing at home.
MLB Underdog of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks +120
The Diamondbacks and the Cubs are going to be playing in Arizona with Patrick Corbin and Jon Lester starting. It seems pretty likely that both teams are going to make the playoffs, barring any collapses. The Cubs will almost certainly win their division, even though the Brewers gave us a fun story for a while. The Diamondbacks also have a pretty safe shot at making the playoffs, but only with a Wild Card spot, with absolutely no chance of catching the Dodgers.
Jon Lester has had one of his worst seasons of his career, but he’s still been a pretty good pitcher regardless. In his 140 innings, he has an ERA of 3.97, and an xFIP of 3.60. It probably says the most about him that he’s capable of pitching so many quality innings for the Cubs despite his age. I think even the Cubs were prepared for Lester to start to show signs of a slow regression, and that looks like what is starting. His fastball velocity is the lowest in his career averaging 91, but even despite this he has been able to strikeout more than a batter per inning. Lester is still a really good pitcher who will provide value to the Cubs in the postseason.
Patrick Corbin is going to be starting for the Diamondbacks, Corbin has an ERA of 4.76, and an xFIP of 3.88. The biggest problem that Corbin has had this season is largely related to his BABIP, which is at .351, and while his batted ball profile isn’t great, there is almost no scenario where it makes sense to have such a high BABIP. His homerun to flyball ratio is also incredibly high, at almost 18%. Again, given the fact that his pitches at Chase Field so often, it makes some sense, but Corbin is certainly better than the ERA would indicate. Ultimately, I would take the Diamondbacks in this game, despite the slightly worse starter mostly just as a value play for a home dog.
MLB Over/Under of the day: Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 10.5
The White Sox and the Royals are going to be playing in Chicago with Ian Kennedy and James Shields starting. The Royals still have something of a chance to make the playoffs, but their tendency to go on endless hot and cold streaks makes me question if they actually have a chance to make the playoffs. The White Sox meanwhile are working pretty intensely on their rebuild, and have traded basically every single piece of present value that they had. I don’t have much to say in defense of either Kennedy or Shields, but both offenses are pretty bad. The White Sox home stadium isn’t that strong of a hitters park, so with the lack of offense in this game, I would take a flier on the under.