Saturday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler
Arizona-Philadelphia: Martin HAS settled down since his first game, but he's allowed a home run in all four of his starts so far. I wanted (and still might) back him, because Delgado simply isn't very good. He's a flyball pitcher (Martin has been too, so I lean over, weather depending) who's only two good outings came against San Diego and San Francisco, and the Phillies saw some of him when he was with the Braves. With that in mind, I think the wrong team is favored. Granted the D-backs have the better bats, but I can't get behind Randall.
Brewers-Reds: As we add the Brewers to the list of teams that are done, Gomez comes back but Aoki is dinged. Tough to even consider backing Peralta after the beating the Reds gave him in Milwaukee last outing. I suppose one could make the usual argument that he makes some adjustments, but not enough to bet on. Total comes out 8.5 shaded to the under, so IMO they're expecting about a 7-1 Reds win, and so am I.
Miami-Colorado: OK, who has a futures bet that the Fish would be a -200 favorite this season. I do not. The way they (Miami) play defense, there is simply no chance of even me taking the RL here, especially in a game w/a total of 7 runs projected. So, Manship has been beaten up, but this IS Miami and this IS the Rockies who CAN score. Most likely more fun to pass, but Fernandez has thrown a lot of pitches, so over is not out of the realm of possibility.
Atlanta-Cardinals: Finally, a game that actually matters to both teams. Teheran always scares me, but gets away with it in the big park known as Turner Field. And, he two-hit the Cardinals at home last month, so I'd be inclined to go the other way and take Miller. But, I don't like that he's thrown a lot of pitches lately. Still have to probably go Cardinals at home, which if it weren't "the Braves" would probably be more than -135. Slight lean to the under.
Cubs-Padres: Always looking to back Samrdzija on the road, where he's held batters to a .222 BAA as opposed to .273 at home. He's done well against the Padres, and it IS perhaps the Padres best pitcher in Stults. But, realistically, the best play here is probably the under.
Pirates-Giants: Without further adieu I tried to back Lincecum against Boston and tried to fade Liriano against the Padres and thought about it against the Cardinals. I won't do that again, so he'll pitch like he did against Colorado and lose. Won't matter, because one team needs to win and one doesn't, so Pirates or pass.
Oakland-Baltimore: If I fade the Orioles at home it's almost always against a LHP since it does take something away from Davis and Markakis, and turns Weiters around. However, Milone's been quite hittable on the road, away from one of the biggest parks in baseball. But, Tillman has thrown a ton of pitches, something like eight straight games of 100+ pitches, and he's given up 20 (correct) jacks in home games this season. That would make me inclined to take the over, and the team with the better bullpen after Friday.
Minnesota-Cleveland: Tough to even care. Cleveland at what's probably a big price or nothing. Which means nothing.
Yankees-Rays: A game that matters. Price is -170 against the Yankees for a reason, and the reason is Sabathia, IMO. There's nobody in the Yankees lineup with any real reason to go off here, based on matchup history, and the Rays seem to have their bullpen issues of a month ago worked out. Myers resting tonight, which he needs. Rays win 64% of their home games and are well above .500 against LHP's. There's no reason to think the Rays won't do to CC what they did a month ago. However, there's always Fridays' game to consider, which is yet to be played.
Toronto-Houston: I do think that "undecided" guy for the Jays is probably better than that Peacock guy for the Astros. However, it doesn't really matter. Always look at overs in this park.
Texas-Chicago: I can't see laying -200 on the road with anyone, really, and certainly not Darvish. Not that he doesn't suck, but when he's off he's really off, and when Santiago is on, he can be solid. White Sox pen pitching well and a small total, by process of elimination, I would consider the White Sox RL.
Angels-Mariners: There is no chance whatsoever of backing Vargas, even as a LHP against the Mariners. I've seen every pitch since he's come back, and he has nothing. There is very little likelihood that I could back Ramirez, either, but it would be the easier bet to make, as would the over if the roof was open.
Detroit-Mets: Ha. This game would certainly inspire Harvey, I would think. And then there's Max and his 0.90 season long WHIP. Because of Harvey, that's really a pretty cheap price on the Tigers, even on the road. And, since the Tiger don't get the DH, which either takes Victor out of the equation, or puts him behind the plate, meaning if the Mets DO get baserunners they can walk to second, so I might consider the Mets, actually.
Boston-Dodgers: Without overthinking the fact that Boston simply hammers lefties and Lester has been great, I'd have to lean Boston. Ryu isn't dominant, but what I really want to see is Adrian against Lester. Somehow, because both of these pitchers can have really bad days, I might look at the over, which might happen late once bullpens become involved, of not before.
Washington-Kansas City: Far too much love for Zimmerman here, and total disrespect for Davis. I will probably take the Royals unless something happens between now and then or bullpens get abused. Haven't checked weather, but Nationals if Desmond is healthy and are allowed to use a DH (they are) so perhaps the over, but eight is much better than 8.5.
Saturday's National League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (+100, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Randall Delgado has hit his roughest stretch of the season, allowing 18 runs over his last four starts.
Hot batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt is batting .400 with two homers and seven RBIs during a seven-game hitting streak.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: Philadelphia has won just once in its last 11 attempts in the second game of a series.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-190, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Brewers right-hander Wily Peralta was torched by the Reds on Monday, surrendering seven runs on eight hits while walking four over 4 1/3 innings of a 9-1 loss.
Cold batting stat: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips is just 2-for-13 lifetime against Peralta.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left-center field at 4 mph.
Key betting note: Cincinnati is 10-1 in starter Bronson Arroyo's last 11 home outings against teams with losing records.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (-190, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez is 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 77 home innings.
Hot batting stat: Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki doubled twice Friday night and has six multi-hit outings in his last nine games.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from right to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 4-0 in Fernandez's last four starts against teams with losing records.
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-133, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 36 innings since the All-Star break.
Hot batting stat: Cardinals C Yadier Molina has five multi-hit performances over his last six games.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The Braves have won eight straight times in the third game of a series.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-120, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardjiza is coming off his second complete game of the season, a one-run, six-hit performance in an 11-1 drubbing of the Washington Nationals.
Hot batting stat: Cubs 2B Darwin Barney has three doubles in seven career at-bats against Padres starter Eric Stults.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 road games against a left-handed starter.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (+115, 6.5)
Hot pitching stat: Since allowing 10 runs in just 2 1/3 innings Aug. 9 in Colorado, Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano has held opponents to one run on eight hits over a 16-inning stretch.
Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen is just 2-for-14 lifetime against San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Liriano's last eight starts on four days' rest.
Interleague
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester is 7-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 17 road starts, compared to 4-0 with a 3.64 ERA at Fenway Park.
Cold batting stat: Dodgers 2B Mark Ellis has just two hits in 12 career at-bats against Lester.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: Boston is 7-1 in Lester's last eight Saturday starts.
Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (+116, 6)
Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Max Scherzer has allowed two runs or fewer in six consecutive starts.
Cold batting stat: The five Mets who have faced Scherzer are a combined .188 with five strikeouts in 16 at-bats against him.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-1-1 in Scherzer's last six Saturday starts.
Saturday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (-142, 9)
Cold pitching stat: Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is winless in his last three starts and absorbed the loss last time out, charged with four run on five hits - including a pair of homers - against Tampa Bay.
Hot batting stat: Orioles slugger Chris Davis is 3-for-8 with a pair of solo homers in his career against Oakland starter Jarrod Parker.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right-center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Baltimore is 18-5 in Tillman's last 23 starts against teams with winning records.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (-180, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Zach McAllister has bounced back following a rough outing against Detroit, surrendering two runs over 12 1/3 innings in victories over Minnesota and the Los Angeles Angels.
Hot batting stat: Twins 1B Justin Morneau is 3-for-8 with a homer against McAllister.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 10-2 in McAllister's last 12 starts as a home favorite.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox (+174, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Rangers right-hander Yu Darvish has allowed three runs or fewer in six consecutive starts while racking up 57 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings in that span.
Cold batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are hitting .263 with zero home runs and 12 strikeouts in 38 combined at-bats against Darvish.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 10-2-1 in Darvish's last 13 starts.
Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Cold pitching stat: Astros right-hander Brad Peacock is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in three home starts this season.
Cold batting stat: Blue Jays C J.P. Arencibia has homered in consecutive games for the first time since June 14-16 against Texas.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with a 30 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Wind will blow from right to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 4-1 in Peacock's last five starts.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-165, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia is 2-2 with a 7.86 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break.
Cold batting stat: New York DH Mark Reynolds has just four hits in 24 at-bats against Tampa Bay starter David Price, but three of them are homers.
Weather: Dome.
Key betting note: Tampa Bay has won just once in its last eight meetings with a left-handed starter.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-130, 8)
Cold pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Erasmo Ramirez has given up seven home runs in 36 1/3 innings so far this season - one more than he surrendered in 59 innings in 2012.
Hot batting stat: Seattle DH Kendrys Morales has homered twice in 19 career at-bats against Seattle starter Jason Vargas.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 7-1 in Seattle's last eight home games against a left-handed starter.
Interleague
Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals (+104, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Jordan Zimmermann is coming off his worst start of the season, tagged for eight runs on seven hits - including three home runs - in an 11-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs.
Cold batting stat: Through Thursday's action, Washington OF Bryce Harper has just four home runs since July 2.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: Kansas City is 2-7 in starter Wade Davis' last nine starts.
MLB: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
Boston Red Sox at L.A. Dodgers
A superb pitching duel is on tap Saturday in L.A. when Dodgers' left-hander Ryu matches pitches with Red Sox lefty Lester. Suffering his first loss in ten starts last time out Ryu brings a 12-4 overall record, 2.95 ERA to the mound including a near perfect 6-1 mark, sparkling 1.68 ERA in 11 home dates (9-2 TSR). On the other side, Lester on a roll going 3-1 with a 2.52 ERA since the break carries an 11-6, 3.94 ERA into the contest. The Red Sox are 7-10 when Lester gets the call on the road. Team wise, Dodgers are 16-7 at home vs a left-handed starter with a 13-10 O/U record. Boston is 9-10 away vs a lefty with a 6-12-1 O/U mark. Digging deeper, some very telling baseball betting stats leap out in favor of 'Under'. The Dodgers are on a 16-5-1 O/U stretch against a winning team, BoSox have a smart 8-1-1 O/U last 10 road games vs. a southpaw starter. What's even more eye-opening, Lester ridding a 1-5-1 O/U stretch is known for keeping the score low in dog days of summer posting a 3-11-1 O/U in August starts. Those numbers in hand and knowing these Inter-league day games with a lefty vs lefty matchup are 1-4 O/U this year, 3-9 O/U L2Y's were recommending an 'Under' play.
Saturday's FOX Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Oakland (71-56) at Baltimore (69-58)
Friday – Baltimore 9 Oakland 7
Skinny
Including yesterday’s win, Baltimore has won four of five matchups against Oakland this season.
The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the five meetings.
Current Form
Oakland has dropped three straight and six of its last 10 games.
Baltimore has won two straight and four of its last six.
Pitching Notes
The A’s have won four of their last five games with Jarrod Parker (9-6, 3.71 ERA) on the mound. The right hander is 3-0 in his last four starts, giving up seven earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. On the road, Parker is 4-3 with a 3.42 ERA but he hasn’t earned a decision outside of Oakland since mid-June. Parker faced Baltimore at home on Apr. 25 and was tagged for eight hits and six earned runs in the A’s 10-2 loss.
Chris Tillman (14-4, 3.79 ERA) has been Baltimore’s best pitcher this season but the team has lost in his last two appearances. At home, Tillman has gone 7-3 and the O’s have gone 9-5 in his 14 starts from Camden Yards. He’s only pitched in six day games and total players have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1-1. Tillman is 3-0 in three starts against AL West opponents this season.
Detroit (75-53) at N.Y. Mets (58-68)
Friday – Detroit 6 New York 1
Skinny
Detroit has gone 34-30 on the road.
New York is 26-34 at home.
The Tigers and Mets have both produced 10-5 records in Interleague play this season. Yesterday’s win for Detroit, was its first road win this season against a National League opponent.
Current Form
Detroit is 4-2 in its last six games.
New York is 2-4 in its last six.
Pitching Notes
Max Scherzer (18-1, 2.82 ERA) has been the best pitcher in the majors this season, due to his consistency on the road and at home. As visitors, the Tigers have gone 9-3 with Scherzer on the mound. In the daytime, he’s gone 4-0 (3.55 ERA) in five starts for Detroit. Sherzer is 1-0 against the National League this season.
Mets rookie pitcher Matt Harvey (9-4, 2.25 ERA) has struggled in the second-half of the season, but he hasn’t received much support from his offense. New York is 2-4 in his six starts since the All-Star break and it’s only managed to produce 16 runs during this span. Harvey has had great numbers (5-2, 2.61 ERA) in the afternoon but the Mets have only managed to go 5-7 in his 12 day starts. New York has gone 3-0 with Harvey on the mound against AL opponents this season.
Boston (75-55) at L.A. Dodgers (76-52)
Friday – Los Angeles 2 Boston 0
Skinny
Boston is 35-32 on the road.
Los Angeles is 38-25 at home.
Boston has gone 11-5 in Interleague action, which includes a 3-3 road record.
Los Angeles is 12-6 against the AL. At home, the Dodgers are 7-1 in Interleague play.
The Dodgers and Red Sox both have identical records against lefthanders this season – 23-19.
Current Form
The Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10. The club hasn’t won back-to-back games since Aug. 7.
The Dodgers have won four straight and eight of their last 10, seven of those victories coming by two runs or more.
Pitching Notes
Jon Lester (11-6, 3.94 ERA) snapped a losing skid in his last outing on Monday against San Francisco. Including that win, the Red Sox are 3-3 in Lester’s last six starts, which includes a 1-2 record on the road. Boston is just 7-10 on the road with Lester starting. In Interleague play, Lester has helped Boston go 2-1 in his three appearances. The Red Sox are 1-4 in Lester’s last five starts when he’s listed as an underdog.
Prior to Monday’s loss in Miami, the Dodgers had won nine straight games with Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-4, 2.95 ERA) on the mound. He went 7 1/3 against the Marlins, giving up six hits and three earned runs. At home, Ryu has helped Los Angeles win his last four appearances and he’s only given up a combined four earned runs in those outings. In day games, total players have watched the ‘over’ go 5-2 in Ryu’s seven afternoon starts.
MLB Odds and Picks - Liriano battles Lincecum by the Bay
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Francisco Liriano could be tabbed as the modern day film version of "The Fish that saved Pittsburgh" because of his role carrying the Pirates during rough times this season. When the Bucs seem to be slumping and giving the city the feeling that their first playoff appearance since 1992 is slipping from their grasp, Liriano has come to save to day with a victory.
Liriano (14-5, 2.53 ERA) has already matched his career high in wins set in 2010 with Minnesota and is one shy from his combined total over the past two seasons with the Twins and White Sox.
The Pirates have been hanging onto first place in the NL central by a fingernail, maintaining a slim one-game lead, but they have come up big on their current seven-game road trip by going 4-1. If Liriano's last two outings are indication, he'll be primed to get the victory tonight in San Francisco. On Aug. 14, he beat the Cardinals, 5-1, and then he came back five days later to win at San Diego, 3-1, where he struck out a season-high 13 batters.
The Giants will oppose Liriano with Tim Lincecum (6-13, 4.53 ERA), who is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA over his past six starts since throwing a no-hitter on July 13. In four of those starts, the Giants' bats have produced either one run or none. In Lincecum's past 11 innings, he's allowed 11 runs. In his past 17 starts, San Francisco has gone 3-14. We'll side with the Pirates laying only -125 tonight.
Struggling Sox
In a possible World Series preview, the Dodgers will look to win their fifth game in a row and eighth straight at home when they play Boston in the second meeting of their three-game series. With Boston's 2-0 loss last night, they fell into a first-place tie with Tampa Bay in the AL East. It was the Dodgers major league-leading 18th shutout of the season and pushed their record since June 22 to 46-10.
Boston leads the majors in runs scored (649) and is second in batting average (.273) and on-base percentage (.345), but the Sox are currently going through a major funk, losing nine of their past 14 games. Key players such as David Ortiz (zero hits in past 11 at-bats) and Dustin Pedroia (two RBIs in his past 15 games) have struggled.
Things won't get any easier for the Sox today when they face lefthander Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-4, 2.95 ERA), who has gone 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA at home in 11 starts this season. In his past five starts overall, he's 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA. The Dodgers had won nine straight starts behind him until he ran into baseball's hottest pitcher, Jose Fernandez, on Monday at Miami. It was the Marlins only win of the four-game series and also the Dodgers last loss.
Boston will turn to their own lefthander, Jon Lester, who has been brilliant lately on the road with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts with no home runs allowed. On Monday, he went 8 1/3 innings allowing only six hits and no runs in a 7-0 win against the struggling Giants.
This has the makings of another 2-0 game, so we'll side with the UNDER as well as the Dodgers laying a relatively short price.
No more good prices on Fernandez
Remember the days when we could get Jose Fernandez at plus-money or laying a short price? Well those days are gone, as they should be, because he has been unbeatable, especially at home. Tonight against Colorado, Fernandez is so good that the worst team in the NL is a -190 favorite. He's going for his fifth-straight win. In 12 starts at home this season, he's gone 6-0 with a 1.40 ERA.
Saturday's selections:
Pirates (Liriano) -125 at Giants
Dodgers (Ryu) -117 vs. Red Sox
Dodgers/Red Sox UNDER 7 (EV)
Nationals (Zimmerman) -112 at Royals
Second-half record: 62-56 (+984)