MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 26th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Mets @ Nationals
Gsellman is 0-2, 8.25 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Mets are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

Gonzalez is 4-0, 0.65 inches last four starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Washington is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-5-5

Mets are 3-9 in their last 12 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight. Washington is 7-4 in last 11 home games; under is 12-1-1 in their last 14 games.

Cubs @ Phillies
Hendricks is 0-0, 2.16 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Cubs are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3

Lively is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts (under 6-1-1). Phillies are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-7-1

Cubs won five of last seven games; over is 7-4 in their last 11. Phillies are 4-9 in last 13 games; over is 8-4 in their last 12.

Pirates @ Reds
Cole is 1-1, 5.13 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Pirates are 7-1 in his last eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-4

Castillo is 0-2, 3.63 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Reds are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8

Pirates are 3-10 in last 13 games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Cincinnati lost three of last five games; over is 8-1 in their last nine home games.

Padres @ Marlins
Lamet is 4-1, 2.75 in his last six starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. San Diego is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7

Despaigne allowed eight runs in 4.2 IP (100 PT) in his only ’17 start, an 11-3 loss to the Mets on May 6. Miami’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Padres are 4-8 in last 12 road games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games overall. Miami is 11-3 in its last 14 games; over is 5-1 in their last six.

Rockies @ Braves
Freeland is 1-1, 5.29 in his last four starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Colorado is 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-1

Newcomb is 1-1, 3.18 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Atlanta is 2-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9

Rockies lost five of last six games; under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games. Atlanta is 6-11 in its last 17 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Bumgarner is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Giants are 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2

Walker is 0-4, 4.91 in his last six starts (over 4-2). Arizona is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-4

Giants are 3-11 in last 14 road games; their last five games overall stayed under. Arizona won four of last five games; over is 6-4-2 in their last 12 home games.

Brewers @ Dodgers
Davies is 3-3, 2.93 in his last six starts; under is 6-0-1 in his last seven. Brewers are 9-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-5

This is a bullpen game for LA. Striping is making his first ’17 start- he is 3-4, 3.41 in 35 relief stints this year (58 IP). He was 5-9, 3.96 in 22 games (14 starts) for the Dodgers last year.

Milwaukee is 7-4 in its last 11 games, last six of which stayed under. Dodgers are 10-2 in last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

American League

Mariners @ New York
Gallardo is 0-2, 7.78 in his last four starts; over is 10-4 in his last 14. Seattle is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-3

Gray is 1-3, 4.30 in four starts for New York (under 3-1). Home team won all four of his NY starts. New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-3

Mariners won seven of last nine games; under is 5-3 in their last eight road tilts. New York is 7-4 in its last 11 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight.

Twins @ Blue Jays
Gee allowed one run in six IP (69 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 10-2 win in Chicago. Twins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Estrada is 1-1, 4.67 in his last three starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Toronto 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-15-3

Minnesota won seven of its last ten games; their last four games stayed under. Blue Jays lost six of last seven games; under is 8-1 in their last nine home games.

Orioles @ Red Sox
Gausman is 1-2, 6.06 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Orioles are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-14

Rodriguez is 0-0, 4.39 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Boston is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8

Orioles are 4-5 in last nine games; four of their last six games stayed under. Boston is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Royals @ Indians
Hammel is 1-1, 4.63 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Royals are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-5

Clevinger is 1-1, 5.65 in his last three starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2

Royals are 7-5 in last 12 games; over is 13-8 in their last 21 games. Cleveland is 11-4 in its last 15 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.

Tigers @ White Sox
Farmer is making his first start since June 18; he is 2-1, 6.62 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Detroit won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Rodon is 1-0, 2.25 in his last five starts (over 4-4-2). Chicago won his last three home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1

Tigers lost nine of last 11 games; over is 6-3 in their last nine. Chicago is 6-3 in its last nine games, last four of which stayed under.

Rangers @ A’s
Hamels is 4-0, 2.17 in his last four starts (over 10-5-1). Texas is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-0-2

Manaea is 0-3, 14.92 in his last four starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight starts. Oakland is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-10-4

Rangers are 11-5 in last 16 games; over is 6-5 in their last 11. A’s lost five of last eight games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Astros @ Angels
Peacock is 1-1, 6.04 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Houston is 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-3

Skaggs is 0-3, 4.35 in his last four starts (under 6-2-1). Angels are 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-2

Houston lost three of last five games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. Angels lost four of last five games; under is 9-3 in their last 12.

Interleague

Rays @ Cardinals
Snell is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Tampa Bay is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Leake is 0-4, 9.64 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Cardinals are 1-7 in his last eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-3

Rays won four of last five games; under is 10-5 in their last 15. St Louis lost five of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
NY-Wsh: Gsellman 7-9; Gonzalez 15-10
Chi-Phil: Hendricks 8-9; Lively 2-6
Pitt-Cin: Cole 16-11; Castillo 5-7
SD-Mia: Lamet 9-6; Despaigne 0-1
Col-Atl: Freeland 14-9; Newcomb 4-9
SF-Az: Bumgarner 3-9; Walker 11-10
Mil-LA: Davies 16-10; Stripling 0-0

American League
Sea-NY: Gallardo 7-13; Gray 1-3 (8-8 )
Minn-Tor: Gee 1-0; Estrada 11-15
Balt-Bos: Gausman 13-14; Rodriguez 10-7
KC-Clev: Hammel 8-17; Clevinger 9-7
Det-Chi: Farmer 2-2; Rodon 4-6
Tex-A’s: Hamels 10-6; Manaea 10-13
Hst-LA: Peacock 11-4; Skaggs 4-5

Interleague
TB-StL: Snell 7-9; Leake 10-15

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
NY-Wsh: Gsellman 8-16; Gonzalez 8-25
Chi-Phil: Hendricks 6-17; Lively 3-8
Pitt-Cin: Cole 9-27; Castillo 2-12
SD-Mia: Lamet 5-15; Despaigne 1-1
Col-Atl: Freeland 6-22; Newcomb 3-13
SF-Az: Bumgarner 2-12; Walker 6-21
Mil-LA: Davies 8-26; Stripling 0-0

American League
Sea-NY: Gallardo 11-20; Gray 3-20
Minn-Tor: Gee 0-1; Estrada 9-26
Balt-Bos: Gausman 9-27; Rodriguez 4-17
KC-Clev: Hammel 4-25; Clevinger 2-16
Det-Chi: Farmer 2-4; Rodon 4-10
Tex-A’s: Hamels 6-16; Manaea 8-23
Hst-LA: Peacock 2-15; Skaggs 5-9

Interleague
TB-StL: Snell 4-16; Leake 8-25 (4 of last 4)

Umpires

National League
NY-Wsh: Over is 3-0-1 in last four Welke games.
Chi-Phil: Under is 7-4-1 in last dozen Layne games.
Pitt-Cin: Six of last eight Timmons games stayed under.
SD-Mia: Favorites are 20-3 in Nauert games this year.
Col-Atl: Home team won last six Barber games.
SF-Az: Over is 6-2 in last eight Meals games.
Mil-LA: Four of last five Cederstrom games.

American League
Sea-NY: Over is 7-4 in last 11 Dreckman games.
Minn-Tor: Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Miller games.
Balt-Bos: Last three Wolcott games went over total.
KC-Clev: Four of last five Reyburn games stayed under.
Det-Chi: Home teams won Mahrley’s first two games behind plate.
Tex-A’s: Favorites are 16-2 in last 18 Iassogna games.
Hst-LA: Under is 6-0-2 in last eight Eddings games.

Interleague
TB-StL: Favorites won nine of last 11 Carlson games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 69-62 NL, favorites +$144
Total: 139-123 AL, favorites +$247

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 70-55-7
Total: Over 135-120-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Texas (-110) at Oakland; Total: 9

Games start early with a couple of 1 p.m.matchups, but there isn’t a whole lot of value on those. Instead, we start during the 4 p.m. hour with an AL West tilt between the Rangers and the A’s. Manaea will get the nod going on some extra rest in this one, as he has really struggled of late. Hamels has some clear signs of regression, so I would expect to see the market pile in on the A’s as we get closer to gametime. Early this morning, there are other considerations than baseball for the influential handicappers that are out there.

Hamels has a 3.42 ERA with a 4.45 FIP and a 4.78 xFIP. He’s got a terrible strikeout rate in his 105.1 innings of work, but he’s limited hard contact really well. With a 51 percent GB%, Hamels has a .230 BABIP against, which seems extremely unsustainable, especially since he has a career .284 mark with a 44.9 percent GB%. I’ll be looking for regression from him in certain starts this year, but I’m not sure that this will be one of them. The A’s aren’t very good, for one thing, and they also like to live on launch angle. The A’s are also 27th in wOBA against LHP. It has been a contact quality issue because they have a solid walk rate at 9.1 percent, but rank near the bottom in SLG.

The Rangers also don’t fare very well with lefties, but Sean Manaea is going in the wrong direction. The Oakland southpaw has a 4.58 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP in his 125.2 innings of work. Since July 22, Manaea has allowed 28 runs, 23 earned, on 44 hits in just 25.1 innings of work. That’s an 8.17 ERA with a 6.92 FIP and a 6.15 xFIP. He’s not missing bats anymore either. He has just 13 strikeouts in that span after averaging over a strikeout per inning prior to that. It seems like Manaea, who has a pretty extensive injury history, has simply hit a wall.

Wait this one out and see if Oakland money does come in because of the Hamels ERA/xFIP discrepancy. If it does, play back on Texas.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-130); Total: 8.5

Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo dial it up in the Queen City with a 6:40 p.m. ET start time. The Pirates are no longer a consideration for the playoffs, as they sit eight games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Between injuries, bad bullpen management, and regression from some starters, things have taken a turn for the worse.

Cole is one of those guys that has fallen off of the pace. He has a 4.16 ERA with a 4.30 FIP and a 3.92 xFIP. He’s worked 160 innings this season, 36 more than last year when he battled some injuries, so I do wonder if workload will be a factor from here on out. He did throw 208 innings in 2015, so he is accustomed to the grind, but it will be something to monitor. Cole had a string in which he allowed two or fewer runs over five straight starts. Fortunes have reversed, as he has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts. The strikeout-to-walk ratio looks pretty decent, so we can maybe just chalk it up to sequencing and batted ball luck, but Cole has allowed at least one homer in five straight starts. His command has been a bit iffy throughout the season and that is generally his best weapon.

Luis Castillo is definitely a guy to watch. Expect the Reds to start slowing him down as he works over 150 innings in a season for the first time in his career. The hard-throwing right-hander has a 3.45 ERA with a 4.09 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP in his 70.1 innings at the big league level. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start thus far, so he’s pretty good at keeping his team in the game. The stuff still seems to have life with 15 strikeouts in his last 10 innings of work.

Still, I won’t be laying 30 cents with the Reds here. Cole is still a solid pitcher, despite some concerns, and my concerns about Castillo were mentioned already. I have no play here.

Detroit at Chicago (-140); Total: 9

Why would anybody want to lay 40 cents with the White Sox? I made a bit of a situational call on the White Sox yesterday and it worked out in our favor as they won a close game. Today, Buck Farmer gets recalled from Triple-A Toledo to take on Carlos Rodon. I think this game illustrates how difficult the Tigers are to line right now. This is a team that has had a lot of success against left-handed pitching on the season, but isn’t getting any respect in the markets.

It’s tough to find a better matchup for Buck Farmer to come back to than this one. Farmer has a 6.62 ERA with a 5.17 FIP and a 3.42 xFIP in his 17.2 innings of work. Overall, as a big leaguer, Farmer has an ugly 6.80 ERA with a 5.87 FIP and a 4.95 xFIP in 96.2 innings of work. He’s not getting a whole lot of love in this one and it’s pretty easy to see why.

It’s a shame that Carlos Rodon missed such a big chunk of the season. His potential is on display again with a 3.88/4.42/3.78 pitcher slash. He has 68 strikeouts in 60.1 innings of work. It’s hard to believe, but Rodon is only 24, so this may be the tip of the iceberg as far as his upside goes. He’s still issuing quite a few walks and his HR/FB% is too high, but the swing-and-miss element in his arsenal is really big.

I think the under is a consideration today. The total is half a run too high because of Farmer’s MLB track record. He’s thrown the ball pretty well this season between Triple-A and the bigs and the Chicago offense isn’t very exciting. The Tigers are just a bad team.

Colorado at Atlanta (-115); Total: 9

Kyle Freeland and Sean Newcomb duel in a battle of left-handers down in Atlanta. Freeland has been viewed as a regression candidate for a large chunk of the season and deservedly so because we don’t see that contact-oriented profile have a lot of success more often than not. Freeland has a 3.71 ERA with a 4.78 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP. He’s got a 78.5 percent LOB%, which is where the main area of regression lies. I’m a bit surprised that we haven’t seen it come down, but Freeland has mixed in some more strikeouts as the season has gone along.

He missed 10 days with an injury and has had some control problems since returning. He has limited the opposition to six runs on eight hits in 11.2 innings of work, but he has a 12/7 K/BB ratio. The Braves are getting their second look at him in two weeks, which may help with their ability to create some offensive chances. Still, the profile of Freeland is a tough one to handicap. With a 55 percent GB% and subpar peripherals, the advanced metrics don’t like him, but he carries some pretty good practical value.

Sean Newcomb has a 4.13 ERA with a 4.79 FIP and xFIP in his first 69.2 innings of work at the MLB level. He has 71 strikeouts, which is good, and 42 walks, which is very bad. Newcomb actually had a start earlier this month in which he walked seven and struck out seven, so it is a very interesting profile to say the least. It’s also a profile that has worked at the minor league level, but it has been a challenge at the MLB level.

Both teams have had success against lefties this season. The Rockies have a Coors-inflated .344 wOBA and the Braves have a .331 wOBA, which is quite solid given their park factor. Perhaps we see runs here. Certainly I would be expecting more offense from the Rockies, with Newcomb’s wildness, so a slight lean to them.

San Francisco at Arizona (-120); Total: 9

Madison Bumgarner and Taijuan Walker meet in the desert for this NL West battle between a bottom feeder and a Wild Card leader. I fully understand that the Giants are a bad team, but Madison Bumgarner looks like the same pitcher that we have come to expect. He has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.34 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP in his 78.1 innings of work. He’s struck out 74 and walked 14. He hasn’t walked more than two batters in any start this season and he’s providing a lot of innings for the Giants now that he is back in regular form.

Taijuan Walker has a 3.66 ERA with a 4.11 FIP and a 4.43 xFIP on the year. He’s pitched really well for his first taste of the NL and his first taste of Chase Field. That being said, let’s dig a bit deeper. He’s actually pitched slightly worse at Chase Field than on the road. He’s got a lower batting average against, but a higher OBP against and a higher SLG against. He’s pitched well when adjusted for Chase Field, so that’s a solid element in his profile. All in all, you have to like what you’ve seen from Walker and it’s a big reason why the Diamondbacks are in the position that they are in.

Still, I have a hard time stepping in front of Bumgarner. With the line movement we’ve seen thus far, my lean would be to the Giants, but the under may certainly be a better way to go here. The Giants offense is terrible. Bumgarner has allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts and allowed two in one and four in the other, so he’s been in a pretty good groove. I would look under here.