MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 5th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Nationals @ Cubs
Jackson is 2-1, 4.74 in three starts for Washington (under 3-0). Nationals won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

Lackey is 3-0, 2.81 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Cubs are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9

Nationals are 3-4 in last seven games; under is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Cubs are 6-4 in last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Cardinals @ Reds
Lynn is 3-0, 1.15 in his last five starts; his last six starts stayed under. St Louis is 6-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11

Castillo is 1-3, 3.86 in his last four starts (over 3-1); Reds are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5

Cardinals lost four of last six road games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Cincinnati won four of last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Padres @ Pirates
Lamet is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Padres are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4

Cole is 3-0, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Pirates are 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8

Padres won five of last eight games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Pittsburgh lost six of last nine games; under is 18-4 in their last 22 home games.

Dodgers @ Mets
Hill is 4-0, 1.45 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Dodgers are 4-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5

Lugo is 1-1, 5.09 in his last three starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Mets are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3

Dodgers won 11 of last 12 games; under is 5-1 in their last six. Mets lost seven of last nine games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Marlins @ Braves
Straily is 0-3, 7.65 in his last four starts (over 4-0). Miami is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11

Foltynewicz is 5-1, 3.73 in his last seven starts; over is 4-0 in his last four. Atlanta is 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8

Marlins won six of last nine games; over is 7-4 in their last 11. Atlanta lost seven of last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Phillies @ Rockies
Pivetta is 2-2, 7.25 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Phillies are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10

Gray 1-2, 7.65 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Colorado is 0-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-3

Phillies lost their last four games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Colorado won 9 of last 11 home games; over is 6-4 in their last ten.

Diamondbacks @ Giants
Walker is 0-3, 4.76 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Arizona is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7

Stratton allowed five runs in 6.2 IP in his only ’17 start, a 6-2 loss at Detroit July 6. Giants’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Arizona is 6-3 in its last nine games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight. Giants lost six of last eight games; over is 4-2 in their last six.

American League

Tigers @ Orioles
VerHagen is making his first ’17 start; he started one game for Detroit in 2014. He is 7-7, 4.90 in 19 AAA starts this year, and allowed three runs in four IP in two big league relief stints this year.

Miley is 1-2, 7.79 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). Orioles are 9-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-1

Tigers are 6-1 in last seven games; over is 10-6-1 in their last 17 road games. Baltimore is 11-7 in last 18 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

New York @ Cleveland
Montgomery is 1-2, 5.90 in his last six starts; his last three starts stayed under. New York is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-1

Salazar is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Cleveland is 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1

New York lost its last four games- seven of their last eight games stayed under. Cleveland won 11 of its last 14 games; under is 4-1 in their last five.

White Sox @ Red Sox
Shields is 0-2, 9.30 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts went over. Chicago is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-2

Pomeranz is 4-0, 2.83 in his last seven starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11. Boston is 9-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9

White Sox are 3-17 since All-Star break; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Boston won four of last six games; under is 15-5-1 in last 21 games at Fenway Park.

Mariners @ Royals
Hernandez is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1

Duffy is 2-0, 2.95 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Royals are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-4

Mariners won nine of last 12 road games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Royals lost five of last seven games; five of their last six games stayed under.

Blue Jays @ Astros
Estrada is 0-5, 7.71 in his last 11 starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Toronto is 5-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-3

Morton is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts; over is 8-3-1 in his last 12. Astros are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-4-2

Toronto won three of last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six. Houston lost six of last nine games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.

Rangers @ Twins
Hamels is 1-1, 7.79 in his last three starts (over 8-3-1). Rangers are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-0-2

Gibson is 1-2, 7.27 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Minnesota is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-1

Rangers lost five of last seven games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Minnesota lost eight of last 11 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

A’s @ Angels
Blackburn is 2-1, 3.35 in six starts this season (over 3-2-1). A’s are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-2

Skaggs is making his first start since April 28; he is 1-1, 3.99 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1). Angels are 2-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-2

A’s lost four of last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Angels won their last six home games; four of their last six games overall went over.

Interleague

Brewers @ Rays
Davies is 5-1, 3.13 in his last seven starts; under is 3-0 in his last three. Milwaukee is 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8

Cobb is 3-1, 3.51 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Rays are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-3

Brewers are 6-12 in last 18 games, 4-3 in last seven; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Rays won four of last six games; under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Wsh-Chi: Jackson 2-1; Lackey 11-9
StL-Cin: Lynn 11-11; Castillo 3-5
SD-Pitt: Lamet 7-4; Cole 15-8
LA-NY: Hill 10-5; Lugo 6-3
Mia-Atl: Straily 11-11; Foltynewicz 12-8
Phil-Colo: Pivetta 5-10; Gray 6-3
Az-SF: Walker 10-7; Stratton 0-1

American League
Det-Balt: VerHagen 0-0; Miley 11-11
Chi-Bos: Shields 4-7; Pomeranz 13-8
NY-Clev: Montgomery 8-12; Salazar 6-6
Tor-Hst: Estrada 9-13; Morton 10-5
Tex-Minn: Hamels 6-6; Gibson 9-9
Sea-KC: Hernandez 7-6; Duffy 8-9
A’s-LA: Blackburn 3-3; Skaggs 3-2

Interleague
Mil-TB: Davies 14-8; Cobb 11-11

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Wsh-Chi: Jackson 1-3; Lackey 10-20
StL-Cin: Lynn 6-22; Castillo 2-8
SD-Pitt: Lamet 5-11; Cole 8-23
LA-NY: Hill 3-15; Lugo 3-9
Mia-Atl: Straily 6-22; Foltynewicz 3-20
Phil-Colo: Pivetta 5-15; Gray 2-9
Az-SF: Walker 6-17; Stratton 0-1

American League
Det-Balt: VerHagen 0-0; Miley 7-22
Chi-Bos: Shields 4-11; Pomeranz 5-21
NY-Clev: Montgomery 5-20; Salazar 5-12
Tor-Hst: Estrada 8-22; Morton 2-15
Tex-Minn: Hamels 5-12; Gibson 4-18
Sea-KC: Hernandez 7-13; Duffy 3-17
A’s-LA: Blackburn 1-6; Skaggs 3-5

Interleague
Mil-TB: Davies 8-22; Cobb 4-22

Umpires

National League
Wsh-Chi: Over is 6-3 in last nine Whitson games.
StL-Cin: Under is 7-2 in last nine LBarrett games.
SD-Pitt: Road team won six of last eight Scheurwater games.
LA-NY: Over is 5-2 in last seven Kellogg games.
Mia-Atl: Under is 7-4 in last eleven Hamari games.
Phil-Colo: Four of last five Guccione games stayed under.
Az-SF: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Wolcott games.

American League
Det-Balt: Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Nelson games.
Chi-Bos: Five of last six Estabrook games stayed under.
NY-Clev: Last five Hernandez games stayed under.
Tor-Hst: Five of last six Davis games stayed under.
Tex-Minn: Over is 8-2 in last ten Wegner games.
Sea-KC: Over is 8-2 in last ten Rackley games.
A’s-LA: Last five Meals games went over the total.

Interleague

Mil-TB: Four of last five Morales games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 57-43 AL, favorites -$618
AL @ NL– 58-51 NL, favorites -$401
Total: 108-101 AL, favorites -$1,019

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 52-48-2
AL @ NL: Over 61-45-4
Total: Over 113-93-6

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (11-1 last 12, 42-7 last 49)

Yu Darvish threw seven shutout innings against the Mets in his team debut last night because of course he did. He was wearing a Dodgers uniform, which just about guarantees you walk off the field a winner these days. L.A. won 6-0 in Queens and hasn't lost to anyone but Atlanta since before July 4, currently 22-3 in that stretch. Lefty Rich Hill, who was named NL pitcher of the month for July after going 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA, will make his first August appearance. He beat the Mets on June 21, part of a 5-0 run the Dodgers are on against New York this season. L.A. has outscored the Mets 42-11, but will be facing young righty Seth Lugo for the first time. The Dodgers are looking to score a 14th series victory in 16 chances with a win, having split four-game sets against the Angels and Braves as the lone outliers. Washington was the last team to beat L.A. in a series -- two months ago (June 5-7).

Coldest team: White Sox (0-4 last four, 4-21 last 25)

Chicago dealt staff ace Jose Quintana, closer David Robertson, top set-up men Tommy Kahnle and Dan Jennings in addition to OF Melky Cabrera, so this latest swoon isn't exactly a surprise. Only the Giants and Phillies have worse records than the Sox, who lead the AL in losses and aren't likely to escape the basement. They're the only team in the American with a losing home record and have been better than only the A's on the road, which is why the surging Red Sox (-300) are Saturday's heaviest favorite despite needing 11 innings to survive 3-2 on Friday on the strength of Mitch Moreland's two-out game-winning blast. The White Sox are 4-12 on the road dating back to June 18 and run up against Boston lefty Drew Pomeranz, who has won four straight decisions. James Shields will take the mound for Chicago but has pitched in just two wins over eight starts since returning from the DL on June 18. His July ERA was 9.00.

Hottest pitcher: Zach Davies, Brewers (12-5, 4.42 ERA)

Although he lost his last start against the Cubs despite working seven innings, this category still applies most applies to the Brewers ace over even L.A.'s Hill. Davies has won 12 of his last 14 decisions and had a run of over 20 scoreless innings snapped by Chicago last time out. Davies comes off a July where where he had a season-best 3.23 ERA and remains perfect on the road in 2017, coming in 6-0 with a 2.80 ERA to improve to 13-3 in opposing stadiums in his career. This will be the first time he's pitching against Tampa Bay.

Coldest pitcher: Wade Miley, Orioles (5-9, 5.60 ERA)

The lefty from Louisiana snapped a personal 1-5 run thanks to a 10-6 win at Texas on Sunday, but he's still given up four or more earned runs in eight of 11 starts and had an 8.68 ERA, allowing hitters to bat .342 against him. His ERA since joining the Birds last season tops 6.00, and he was 1-3 with a 7.32 ERA last August. Miley pitched in a 13-11 win over the Tigers on May 16, surrendering eight hits, two of them homers. He'll be opposed by righty reliever Drew VerHagen, who will be making his second career start.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (6-0-1 last seven, 15-3-1 last 19)

After blanking Tampa Bay last night behind rookie Brandon Woodruff and a superb bullpen effort, Milwaukee has now held the opposition to two or fewer runs in five of its last seven games. The Brew Crew's own lack of offense has largely been the culprit throughout this lengthy run of low-scoring affairs, so last night's 2-0 win fell right in line as they've managed more than three runs only four times in 19 games. The number for this one opened at 8.5 with the sizzling Davies on the mound opposed by Rays righty Alex Cobb, who has allowed more than three runs in a game only four times in his last 18 outings. He's coming off his worst outing of 2017, lasting a season-low three innings after surrendering eight runs at Houston in a 14-7 loss on July 31.

Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (5-1 last six)

Toronto was involved in Friday's highest-scoring game, getting lit up for a 9-run inning in a 16-7 loss at Houston. There have been at least nine runs scored in seven of the last eight involving the Jays, a run that began in style when Steve Pearce belted his first of two walk-off grand slams last week. The OVER is 5-1 in Marco Estrada's last six starts and has prevailed in 10 of 14 games involving the Astros, MLB's highest-scoring team. It's 4-0-1 in matchups involving these clubs this season. Houston is 3-2 against the Blue Jays, owning a 47-10 advantage in the victories.

Matchup to watch: Yankees at Indians

New York has seen its two new starters, Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia, greeted rudely in Cleveland. Neither even tasted a lead as the Yankees have been outscored 12-3, bumbling ineptly. They committed as many errors (3) as they had hits in Thursday's series opener and left 10 men on base in being blown out last night.

Since putting together a six-game winning streak to take over the AL East lead, the Yanks have dropped five of six since July 30, scoring three or fewer runs in each of the losses. As a result, they've fallen a full three games back of Boston and own just a one-game edge over Kansas City for the top wild card.

Their task gets no easier with Danny Salazar on the mound for the Indians. The Dominican righty has been dominant since returning from the DL on July 22, showing off a live fastball and filthy complementary pitches in giving up two runs over 13 innings, striking out 16 while walking two. His arm should be fresh since he's pitching on eight days rest due to his start being pushed back.

The Tribe has survived the Royals' big push and lead the AL Central by 3.5 games as they look for their 60th win. Salazar is 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees, who counter with rookie lefty Jordan Montgomery. New York is 1-5 in his last six outings.

Betcha didn’t know: San Francisco's Chris Stratton will get to start a game with more than a few hours notice for the first time when he takes the mound against Arizona, so it will be interesting to see how the former first-round pick fares. He threw 106 pitches on July 6 in a 6-2 loss at Detroit after being pressed into duty when Johnny Cueto was scratched, walking five and allowing five earned runs over 6.2 innings. He's taking struggling Matt Cain's turn in the rotation and is expected to be in the mix going forward to give the Giants a better idea of how they want to use him going forward. He'll be opposed by another former first-round pick, Taijuan Walker, who hasn't produced a D'Backs win in any of his last four starts.

Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-155) vs. Nationals

Biggest public underdog: Cardinals (+112) at Reds

Biggest line move: Astros (-150 to -175) vs. Blue Jays

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Washington (63-43) at Chicago Cubs (57-50)

Scheduled Rotation: Roark (8-7) vs. Hendricks (4-3), TBA vs. Lackey (8-9), Jackson (2-1) vs. Lester (8-6)
Series Price: Cubs -200, Nationals +170

Be sure to check the wind speed and direction before betting each of these games in regards to the total. It's going to be swirling around fast in "The Windy City" through Monday. If its blowing out, bet 'over' the number. If it's blowing in, then bet the 'under.' Washington's NL-best offense averaging a 5.5 to 4.5 score this season might seem like a tough team to bet 'under' with, but they're just 51-50-5 to the 'over.' The Cubs have won 14 of their past 19 games while the Nationals have won nine of their last 13 road games.

They split four games at D.C. in late June. The last time these two teams met at Wrigley Field was May of 2016 with the Cubs taking a four-game sweep. The Cubs have won nine of the past 13 meetings. A fun game to play within the game is guessing how many walks Bryce Harper will get. In that four-game series at Wrigley last season Harper was walked 13 times, including six in the series finale.

San Diego (48-59) at Pittsburgh (52-56)

Scheduled Rotation: Wood (2-3) vs. Nova (10-8 ), Lamet (5-4) vs. Cole (9-7), Richard (5-12) vs. Taillon (6-5)
Series Price: Pirates -280, Padres +230

The Pirates have lost six of their last eight and have stayed 'under' in six of their last seven. They're inching up on Cleveland as baseball's best 'under' team (60-41-5) cashing at 59.4 percent. Pittsburgh is 59-42-7 to the 'under' cashing at 58.4 percent. They met last weekend for three at Petco Park with the Padres getting wins on Saturday and Sunday. All three games stayed 'under' making it 5-0 to the low side in their last five meetings. Pittsburgh is 20-5-1 to the 'under' in its last 26 games at PNC Park. The Padres have won five of their last seven and their last five have stayed 'under' the closing total. Seems like a theme here this weekend with the total.

LA Dodgers (76-32) at NY Mets (49-57)

Scheduled Rotation: Darvish (6-9) vs. deGrom (12-4), Hill (8-4) vs. Lugo (5-3), Ryu (3-6) vs. Matz (2-4)
Series Price: Dodgers -150, Mets +130

The Dodgers have been masters of the one-run games going 19-10. For you run-line bettors, consider that in 29 of the Dodgers 108 games, you have no chance of winning. Run-line bettors are still up +15.30 units, but betting just to win every game you'd be up +27.5 units (MLB-best). These guys have won 15 of 18 since the All-Star break. They're currently on a 43-10 run, which includes a four-game sweep against the Mets on June 19 at Dodger Stadium. All four of those games went 'over' which isn't surprising since the Mets are the best 'over' team on the majors by far. The Mets have gone 62-34-10 to the 'over' cashing at 64.6 percent. The next best 'over' team is the Astros (58-43-7) at 64.6 percent. The Dodgers have gone 13-6 in their last 19 games at Citi Field. The Mets are -14 units this season.

Miami (51-55) at Atlanta (49-58)

Scheduled Rotation: Conley (4-3) vs. Dickey (6-7), Straily (7-7) vs. Foltynewicz (9-6), Urena (9-5) vs. Sims (0-1)
Series Price: Braves -110, Marlins -110

The Braves have spent the most days in second-place of the National League Central, but the Marlins have just zipped past them to take that spot and the Braves have fallen to fourth just a half-game behind the Mets. Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight games while Miami has won six of its last eight. Miami has also won seven of its last nine road games. The Braves have won five of eight meetings, but it appears the table has turned since they last met in June. The Marlins are playing good ball and should win this series.

Arizona (62-46) at San Francisco (42-68)

Scheduled Rotation: Banda (0-1) vs. Bumgarner (1-4), Walker (6-5) vs. Stratton (0-2), Corbin (8-10) vs. Samardzija (6-11)
Series Price: Giants -135, Diamondbacks +115

These teams haven't met since April at a time we didn't know how good the Diamondbacks would be or how bad the Giants would become. Arizona took three of four at Chase Field to open the season. A week later the Giants took two of three at AT&T. The Giants have been in the National League West cellar since mid-June. Arizona has the third-best record in the NL and are currently on a 6-3 run which culminated Thursday with a second straight win at Wrigley Field. The Giants have won 16 of the past 22 meetings. Arizona is almost unbeatable at home (36-18) but are just 26-28 on the road. However, this series price with SF -135 is about 25 cents too high.

Toronto (51-57) at Houston (69-39)

Scheduled Rotation: Valdez (1-0) vs. Peacock (9-1), Estrada (4-7) vs. Morton (9-4), Stroman (10-5) vs. Fiers (7-6)
Series Price: Astros -180, Blue Jays +160

These two met last month in Toronto and split a four-game series with Houston winning by a combined score of 31-3 in their two wins and Toronto winning 14-6 in its two wins. All four of those games went 'over' the total. The Astros +22.7 units is the second-best profit in baseball, but most of that has come on the road where they are 38-15. At home, Houston 31-24 which equates to a minus-4.8 units; they're usually big favorites at home, so a loss stands out more than a win. They average 7.1 runs on the road and bat .303. At home, they average 'just' 4.8 runs and bat .280. It's equated to more 'under' tickets.

Houston just got slapped around at home by Tampa Bay, who took three of the final four games. The Astros have now lost five of their past six and have lost two straight series. The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 and have won 10 of their last 14 against the Astros.

Milwaukee (57-53) at Tampa Bay (57-53)

Scheduled Rotation: Woodruff (0-0) vs. Faria (5-1), Davies (12-5) vs. Cobb (9-7), Nelson (9-5) vs. Archer (8-6)
Series Price: Rays -160, Brewers +140

The Brewers (+12.4 units) just took two of three at home against the Cardinals, but they've still lost five of their last eight. The Rays (+3.4) just took took the final three of four at mighty Houston; it was quite impressive. Tampa Bay is now just 3.5 games behind in the American League East behind the Red Sox and Yankees and they're only a half-game behind the Royals in the AL Wild Card chase. Who would've thought the Rays at the beginning of the season? Milwaukee is batting only .204 in its last 10 games. These teams last met in 2014 (TB 2-1) and Tampa Bay has won six of its last eight Interleague home games. Look for the Rays to keep their roll going and win the series.