MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 1st, 2017

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

NY Yankees (42-35) at Houston (54-26)

Scheduled rotation: Pineda (7-4) vs. McCullers (7-1), Montgomery (6-4) vs. Martes (2-0), Severino (5-3) vs. Fiers (5-3)
Series price: Astros -150, Yankees +135

This should have been a nice match-up between first-place squads, but the Yankees (-3.1 units) blew it by going 4-12 over their last 16 games. Still, it's a match-up of the top scoring teams in the American League with both averaging 5.6 runs a game. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees own a .226 batting average and their stellar bullpen is imploding with a 6.75 ERA. The Astros (+18.8 units) are batting .303 over the same span, winning eight of 10. Houston just keeps rolling along with baseball's best record and highest batting average (.284). They've gone 39-17 in their last 56 games. They took three out of four in May at Yankee Stadium, and of course they took the first game of that series. That's what Houston does. They get on opponents quickly out of the gate going 17-8 in the first games of series this season. The Yankees have shown they are a much different team on the road (18-22) and Houston hasn't shown any signs of slowing the machine down. Laying -150 looks cheap here.

Boston (44-35) at Toronto (37-41)

Scheduled rotation: Fister (0-1) vs. Estrada (4-6), Sale (10-3) vs. Liriano (4-3), Pomeranz (7-4) vs. Biagini (2-7)
Series price: Red Sox -110, Blue Jays +100

The Red Sox (-1.6) are right where they were expected to be when the season started: first-place in the A.L. East. The Blue Jays (-12.8 ) have been a major disappointment and sit in last place, 6.5 games behind Boston. The Jays average only 4.2 runs a game, which is the second-least in the A.L. behind the Royals (4.0). Surprisingly, this is only the second series between the division rivals this season. Boston took two of three at Toronto in April. The Jays have lost six of their last nine and because of their hitting woes, five of their last six stayed Under the total. Boston is also also on a run of staying Under five of its last six. Saturday's game features Chris Sale, who is now listed at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as a prohibitive 1-to-5 favorite to win the A.L. Cy Young Award. Something to think about is Sale's lack of stamina in the second half last season. After starting 14-2, the White Sox proceeded to lose 10 of his final 14 starts with most of the losses being his fault.

Chicago Cubs (40-39) at Cincinnati (33-45)

Scheduled rotation: Montgomery (1-4) vs. Feldman (6-5), Butler (4-2) vs. TBA, Arrieta (7-6) vs. Adleman (5-4)
Series price: Cubs -145, Reds +130

The Cubs have been the third-worst bet of the season at -15.2 units and its team rating at the Las Vegas sports books has been sliding weekly. It dropped even lower since Kris Bryant (8 cents) hurt his ankle and has been out the last two nights. Only the Padres have a lower batting average (.228) than the Cubs (.238). The Cubs starting rotation hasn't picked up the slack, either, coming with a chunky 4.48 ERA. But the get well tonic might be the Reds (-7.3), who they've beaten 38 of the past 51 meetings, including five of six this season. Cincinnati has the worst starting rotation (6.29 ERA) in baseball and have lost 15 of its last 19 games. The Cubs have lost 15 of their last 22 road games, but come off a split at Washington where they won the last game in dramatic fashion.

Washington (47-32) at St. Louis (37-41)

Scheduled rotation: Roark (6-5) vs. Leake (4-3), Gonzalez (7-2) vs. Wacha (4-3), Scherzer (9-5) vs. Martinez (6-6)
Series price: Nationals -110, Cardinals +100

The Cardinals (-10.6) have to come into this series feeling good about their current play winning four of their last five, which included winning a series at Arizona. The Diamondbacks hadn't lost a series at home since April. St. Louis comes fully loaded with their best arms and while they lost two of three at Washington in April, they did manage to beat Max Scherzer. Washington has won eight of the past 11 meetings, but the Cardinals have won 21 of the last 28 meetings at Busch Stadium. The key to this series will be Friday's game with Tanner Roark going for the Nats. They've lost his past four starts. The Nats have gone 17-9 in the first game of a series this season. Washington leads the National League in hitting (.278) and lead baseball in runs scored (446), but they're such big favorites nightly that their net profits are in the negative at -0.1.

Colorado (47-34) at Arizona (50-30)

Scheduled rotation: Gray (0-0) vs. Ray (8-3), Chatwood (6-8 ) vs. Greinke (9-4), Marquez (5-4) vs. Walker (6-3)
Series price: Diamondbacks -170, Rockies +150

The Rockies (+14.8 ) had been the most profitable team in baseball, but now that label goes to Arizona (+19.5) just because the Rockies have lost eight straight games. The awful run actually was started by Arizona winning the final two of a three games series at Coors Field, which allowed the Dodgers to take over first-place in the N.L. West from Colorado. The Rockies had a shot to take the lead back in their next series, but then lost three straight at Dodger Stadium. Then things got worse when they lost three at AT&T Park to the last-place Giants. Now here they are -- staggering -- playing against one of the best home teams in baseball (30-12) who have the second-best record in the league. The good news for the Rockies is that they get Jon Gray back into the rotation on Friday. He's been out since mid-April. The Rockies had won all three of his starts up to that point. The Rockies lead the season series, 5-4, but Arizona is on a run of winning 16 of its last 21 games.

LA Dodgers (53-28) at San Diego (33-46)

Scheduled rotation: Wood (8-0) vs. Richard (5-7), Hill (4-4) vs. TBA, Maeda (6-3) vs. Chacin (6-7)
Series price: Dodgers -250, Padres +220

The Dodgers (+12.9) have been on a an incredible roll winning 38 of their last 52 with an insane combination of great hitting and shutdown pitching. They lead baseball with a +1.7 run differential and their starters have the best ERA (3.43). The Padres (-5.9) aren't in last-place because the Giants are so bad, but they're last in almost every offense category beginning with runs scored (3.4 per game) and batting average (.228). The Dodgers have won five of six from the Padres this season, including both games at Petco Park. The best news here for the Padres is that they've won seven of their last nine home games and they don't have to face Clayton Kershaw.

Minnesota (40-37) at Kansas City (38-39)

Scheduled rotation: Santana (10-4) vs. Vargas (11-3), Berrios (7-2) vs. Hammel (4-6), Jorge (0-0) vs, Skoglund (1-1), Santiago (4-7) vs. Strahm (2-5)
Series price: Royals -115, Twins -105

This will be a four-game series with a day/night double-header on Saturday. The Twins (+7.0) follow-up to their sweep at Cleveland didn't go so well losing three of four at Boston. But their 24-12 road record is still quite impressive and they sit 1.5 games behind Cleveland in the A.L. Central. Kansas City (+3.6) is 3.5 games behind and showing signs offensively of being real contenders in a mediocre division. However, Minnesota has won eight of the past nine meetings. Friday's winner will tilt the scales in this series with an All-Star match-up of Ervin Santana vs. Jason Vargas. Quietly, Vargas is having his best season ever leading the A.L. in wins (11) and ERA (2.29). If thinking Cy Young, the Westgate has him at 12-to-1 odds to win as the third choice behind Sale (1/5) and Dallas Keuchel (3/1).

MLB Knowledge

National League

Giants @ Pirates
Moore is 1-2, 8.85 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Giants are 2-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-12-2

Kuhl is t1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. Pirates are 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-2

Giants won their last four games, are 3-10 in last 13 road games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. Pirates are 3-5 in last eight home games; five of their last six home games stayed under the total.

Phillies @ Mets
Hellickson is 0-4, 6.18 in his last seven starts (under 9-4-3); Phillies are 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-1

Wheeler allowed 15 runs in 3.2 IP in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Mets are 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Phillies are 3-11 in last 14 road games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Mets won six of last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Cubs @ Reds
Butler is 2-1, 3.20 in his last five starts (under 5-3-1). Cubs are 3-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3

Stephens is making his MLB debut; he is 4-4, 4.97 in 14 AAA starts this year.

Chicago lost five of last seven games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Reds lost 15 of last 20 games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Marlins @ Brewers
Koehler is making his first start since May 16; he is 0-1, 9.35 in his last four starts. Miami is 2-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-4

Davies is 3-1, 4.82 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Milwaukee is 4-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Miami lost five of last six road games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Milwaukee won its last three home games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Nationals @ Cardinals
Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.82 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his road starts. Washington is 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 11-3-2

Wacha is 2-0, 5.40 in his last four starts; over is 10-1 in his last 11. St Louis is 4-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-2

Washington lost four of last five road games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. St Louis won five of last six games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Chatwood is 2-1, 2.73 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Colorado is 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8-1

Greinke is 3-1, 4.50 in his last five starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. Arizona is 8-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2

Colorado lost eight of its last nine games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. Arizona lost its last three home games; over is 9-5-1 in their last 15 home games.

Dodgers @ Padres
Hill is 1-2, 6.19 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 2-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Overton allowed two runs in 3.1 IP (79 PT) in his only ’17 start, for Seattle; he is 1-3, 9.28 in 16 MLB games (6 starts). He is 1-2, 8.16 in seven AAA starts this season.

Dodgers are 14-2 in last 16 games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. San Diego won five of last eight games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

American League

Rays @ Orioles
Odorizzi is 1-1, 8.06 in his last five starts (over 5-0). Tampa Bay is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-4

Bundy is 2-3, 6.26 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. Orioles are 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2

Tampa Bay lost four of last six games; their last four games stayed under. Orioles won four of their last six games; their last four games stayed under.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Sale is 4-1, 2.78 in his last five starts (over 5-2 in his last seven). Boston is 5-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-2-6

Liriano is 1-1, 5.56 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Toronto is 5-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5-3

Red Sox won four of last five games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Toronto lost six of last eight games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Indians @ Tigers
Tomlin is 1-3, 7.11 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four road starts. Cleveland is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-2. Carrasco is 3-0, 4.71 in his last four starts (under 3-1)- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-4-1. Cleveland is 7-1 in his road starts.

Zimmerman is 0-1, 4.38 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Tigers are 5-2 in his home starts. Detroit’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1. Boyd is making his first start since May 31- he is 0-4, 7.67 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 1-4 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-7-2

Cleveland won three of its last four games, is 6-7 in road series openers. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Detroit won three of last four games; six of their last eight games went over. Tigers are 8-4 in home series openers.

New York @ Houston
Montgomery is 4-0, 2.59 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. New York is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Martes is 2-0, 4.26 in three starts this year (over 3-0). Astros’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-0

New York is 0-5 in game following its last five wins; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Astros won eight of last 11 games- over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Rangers @ White Sox
Hamels is 2-0, 4.86 in six starts this year (over 5-1). Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-0-1

Holland is 1-4, 9.76 in his last six starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. Chicago is 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1

Texas lost four of last five games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games. Chicago lost 8 of last 12 games; under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Twins @ Royals
Berrios is 4-1, 3.21 in his last five starts (under 8-0-1). Minnesota is 4-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3. Jorge is making his first MLB start; he was 8-1, 3.26 in 14 starts at AA Chattanooga this year.

Farrell is making his first MLB start; he is 7-3, 3.83 in 14 AAA starts this year. Hammel is 3-0, 2.51 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Royals are 2-7 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-3

Minnesota lost four of last five games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Kansas City lost three of last five games; over is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games.

Mariners @ Angels
Gaviglio is 4-1, 4.45 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Seattle is 2-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1

Nolasco is 1-7, 5.60 in his last eight starts, but he won his last start. Under is 9-4 in his last 13. Angels are 2-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-3

Seattle lost four of its last five games; over is 10-3-3 in their last 16 games. Angels lost four of last five games; five of last seven Angel games stayed under the total.

Interleague

Braves @ A’s
Dickey is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Atlanta is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2

Blackburn is making his MLB debut; he was 5-6, 3.05 in 14 AAA starts this season.

Atlanta lost three of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Oakland lost its last five home games; over is 17-10-1 in their last 28 home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
SF-Pitt: Moore 4-12; Kuhl 4-11
Phil-NY: Hellickson 9-7 (1-6 last 7); Wheeler 5-8
Chi-Cin: Butler 5-4; Stephens 0-0
Mia-Mil: Koehler 3-5; Davies 10-6
Wsh-StL: Gonzalez 9-7; Wacha 6-8
Col-Az: Chatwood 7-9; Greinke 11-5
LA-SD: Hill 5-5; Overton 0-0 (1-0)

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 5-9; Bundy 10-6
Bos-Tor: Sale 12-4; Liriano 8-4
Clev-Det: Tomlin 5-10 Carrasco 12-3; Zimmerman 6-9 Boyd 4-7
NY-Hst: Montgomery 7-7; Martes 3-0
Tex-Chi: Hamels 2-4; Holland 6-9
Minn-KC: Berrios 7-2 Jorge 0-0; Farrell 0-0 Hammel 4-11
Sea-LA: Gaviglio 6-2; Nolasco 4-12

Interleague
Atl-A’s: Dickey 9-6; Blackburn 0-0

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
SF-Pitt: Moore 6-16; Kuhl 4-15
Phil-NY: Hellickson 6-16; Wheeler 6-13
Chi-Cin: Butler 3-9; Stephens 0-0
Mia-Mil: Koehler 6-8; Davies 5-16
Wsh-StL: Gonzalez 6-16; Wacha 2-14
Col-Az: Chatwood 2-16; Greinke 1-16
LA-SD: Hill 3-10; Overton 1-1

American League
TB-Balt: Odorizzi 5-14; Bundy 1-16
Bos-Tor: Sale 1-16; Liriano 5-12
Clev-Det: Tomlin 6-15 Carrasco 3-15; Zimmerman 7-15 Boyd 3-11
NY-Hst: Montgomery 4-14; Martes 1-3
Tex-Chi: Hamels 3-6; Holland 5-15
Minn-KC: Berrios 3-9 Jorge 0-0; Farrell 0-0 Hammel 1-15
Sea-LA: Gaviglio 2-8; Nolasco 4-16

Interleague
Atl-A’s: Dickey 6-15; Blackburn 0-0

Umpires

National League
SF-Pitt: Last seven Bellino games stayed under.
Phil-NY: Over is 8-4 in Barry games this season.
Chi-Cin: Over is 7-2 in last nine Hernandez games.
Mia-Mil: Under is 6-3 in last nine West games.
Wsh-StL: Over is 11-0-1 in lat 12 Gonzalez games.
Col-Az: Road team won four of last five Estabrook games.
LA-SD: Underdogs won four of last six Wolf games.

American League
TB-Balt: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Vanover games.
Bos-Tor: Under is 7-3-2 in last dozen Davis games.
NY-Hst: Under is 7-2 in last nine Foster games.
Tex-Chi: Four of last five Johnson games went over.
Minn-KC: Last four Baker games went over. Under is 6-2 in last eight Dreckman games.
Sea-LA: Under is 6-3 in last nine LBarrett games.

Interleague
Atl-A’s: Over is 10-1-1 in last dozen Eddings games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 41-26 AL, favorites -$306
AL @ NL– 40-40, favorites -$1,010
Total: 81-66 AL, favorites -$1,316

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 42-28-2
AL @ NL: Over 43-32-2
Total: Over 85-60-4

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Giants (4-0 past four games)

The Giants are still 20 games below .500, but seriously, they are the hottest team in the majors. Their four-game winning streak is longest active in baseball, and only two teams have a streak of three wins at the moment. The Giants humped up on the Pirates in the series opener Friday in the Steel City, winning by a decisive 13-5 score. Denard Span, Joe Panik and Hunter Pence combined for 10 hits in 14 at-bats at the top of the order, collecting seven RBI while also adding three walks. That's the recipe for success for any team. Now, they will face Chad Kuhl, and the Pirates are just 1-4 over Kuhl's past five home starts and 1-5 over his past six outings overall. Of course, the Giants are just 2-8 in Matt Moore's past 10 road outings and 1-6 in his past seven assignments overall.

Coldest team: Rockies (1-8 past nine games)

The Rockies have fallen six games off the pace in the National League West Divsion after experiencing an eight-game losing skid, all inside the division, from June 21-28. They came alive in Friday's series opener in Arizona, doubling up Robbie Ray and the Snakes by a 6-3 score. But one game does not snap a team out of a cold streak, as they're still 1-8 over the past nine. Colorado's offense is averaging just 3.2 runs per game over the past nine outings, and they'll need to rectify that situation on a regular basis before they can be trusted at the betting window again.

Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, Red Sox (10-3, 2.77 ERA)

The league's top strikeout pitcher takes his show on the road trying to spoil Canada Day for the Blue Jays and their fans. The enigmatic southpaw is a little more hittable on the road, going 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA over eight starts with a .212 opponent batting average as opposed to a .187 home average and 2.34 ERA. However, his finest road outing of the season came April 20 when he allowed just four hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts over eight scoreless frames at Rogers Centre. Since the start of the 2014 season Sale is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.80 ERA over five starts with 38 strikeouts over 40 innings.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-8, 6.04 ERA)

While the Giants have been red hot lately, their four-game winning streak will be put to the test with the southpaw Moore on the hill. He has allowed 60 earned runs, most in the majors, over 16 starts this season. Opponents are hitting a robust .299 against him this season while he has an awful 1.61 WHIP over 89 1/3 innings. The Giants are 1-6 over Moore's past seven assignments, 2-8 over his past 10 road outings and 1-6 in his past seven starts on the road against teams with a winning home mark. And, for what it's worth, the Giants are 0-4 in Moore's past four starts on Saturdays.

Biggest UNDER run: Phillies (3-1-1 past five overall, 3-1-1 past five road games)

The 'under' has been a frequent happening for the Phillies lately, going 3-1-1 in their past five games overall and 3-1-1 in their past five road games. The under is also 4-0-1 in their past five assignments vs. RHP. Having Jeremy Hellickson on the hill is also a good sign for the under, as it is 3-0-1 in his past four outings. The under is also 7-1 in Hellboy's past eight starts against National League East foes, 5-1-2 over his past eight against teams with a losing overall record and 3-0-2 in Philadelphia's past five road games vs. RHP.

Biggest OVER run: Reds (10-3 past 13 games overall)

The 'under' connected in Friday's series opener against the Cubbies, as Cincinnati dominated in a 5-0 win against the toothless lineup of the defending champs. No Kris Bryant (ankle) for Chicago certainly helps. The over has cashed in 10 of the past 13 games overall for Cincinnati while going 9-2 in their past 11 games overall against a right-handed starting pitcher. The over is 41-20-2 in their past 63 games overall, 33-16-2 over the past 51 within their division and 19-7 in their past 26 games played on Saturday. The over is also an impressive 16-5 in Cincinnati's past 21 games after posting five or more runs in their previous outing. And the over is an impressive 35-14-3 in Cincinnati's past 52 meetings with the Cubs, and 39-16-3 in the previous 58 meetings at GABP.

Matchup to watch: Astros vs. Yankees

The Yankees worked over the Astros in the series opener at Minute Maid, 13-4. The odds makers are expecting the Astros to bounce back on Saturday against Jordan Montgomery and company, as the 'Stros are moderate favorites. Despite their big win on Friday, New York is still just 5-12 over their past 17 games overall, including 3-8 over the past 11 outings on the road. They're also just 1-6 in their past seven road games against a right-handed starter and 0-5 in their past five outings following a win. However, the Yankees have won five of their past seven trips to Houston with the 'under' cashing in 11 of the past 14 battles in H-Town.

Betcha didn’t know: Independence Day comes early in Canada, at least if you're an American used to celebrating July 4th. On July 1, Canada celebrates its independence with baseball, fireworks and...well, probably poutine or something uniquely Canadian. And that's cool. Last season the Blue Jays had Canada Day spoiled in a 2-1 loss in 19 innings in front of 45,825 fans in a game which spanned six hours and 13 minutes. The previous season the Jays won 11-2 at home against the Red Sox. In fact, until last season's July 1 setback the Jays had a three-game winning streak on Canada Day dating back to July 1, 2012, when they fell at home 10-6 to the Angels.

Biggest public favorite: Mets (-165) vs. Phillies

Biggest public underdog: Nationals (+115) at Cardinals

Biggest line move: White Sox (+125 to -105) vs. Rangers

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays can take comfort in knowing they have won three of the past four at home during Canada Day celebrations. Having lefty Liriano do their bidding on this day of celebration does bode well for Blue Jay supporter's. Jays have won 7 of his last 8 starts, own a 5-0 streak in front of the home audience with the southpaw, 5-0 streak vs the division with the portsider and have a sparkling 11-1 streak with the hurler following a team loss the previous effort. Sports Interaction currently has Jays +$1.55 home underdogs.

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
By Bangthebook.com

Cleveland (-115) at Detroit; Total: 10.5

These two teams don’t like each other and it goes all the way to the managers. Brad Ausmus’s embarrassing antics and whining have rubbed Terry Francona the wrong way, so much so to the point that Francona let his pettiness out and challenged a call at first in the eighth inning of a lopsided game the last time these teams met.

Comerica Park isn’t playing as small as it did earlier in the season, which I’m guessing is why people don’t like Josh Tomlin. Tomlin is doing what he has always done. He’s showing elite control with a home run problem. The difference this season is that he’s also carrying a .353 BABIP against and a 63.6 percent strand rate. He has a 6.09 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP. Tomlin has gotten pretty unlucky on balls in play. He’s going to give up home runs, but you rarely see a home run pitcher with a 63.6 percent LOB%. You also rarely see one with a .353 BABIP. Tomlin hasn’t shown much command this season, but I see some positive regression, despite all the hard contact. He had a 4.40 ERA last season with a 4.88 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP with a similar profile. He actually had more ground balls last season which would support a higher BABIP.

The inconsistent Indians offense is a worry against Anibal Sanchez, who has a 6.75 ERA, a 6.57 FIP, and a 5.08 xFIP in his 32 innings this season. Sanchez went to the minors to get some work in and made four rehab starts. Since coming back as a starter, he’s allowed three earned on seven hits over 11 innings with an 11/3 K/BB ratio. Forgive me for not believing that he is suddenly fixed. He did well against a quality Mariners lineup, but faced a bad Padres lineup in San Diego.

I’ve talked in the past about my unwillingness to play the “which pitcher will suck less?” game, but I’m playing it here and I’m playing it with the Indians. If the Tribe gets blown out, it happens, but if you’re giving me two bad starters, one in line for some positive regression, and one team has a huge bullpen advantage, I know exactly where I’m going. The Indians are the play tonight.

This game has taken on a little bit of a different look now that it is the beginning of a doubleheader. We’ll have to see the lineups before we get involved. Also, the market pushed the Indians back into a favorite at -115 before the game was rained out. I’m less excited about this game than I was last night, as I don’t know what the lineup will look like. What I do know is that managers generally want to win that first one, so the Indians should have the same bullpen advantage.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-130); Total: 9.5

Look at the Giants trying out this winning thing all of the sudden. Kudos to them for that. They’ll have another shot to win today when Matt Moore goes up against Chad Kuhl. The Pirates are a clear home favorite in this spot, as Moore has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Moore has a 6.04 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 5.15 xFIP. I’ve talked in the past about his ugly Statcast numbers as well. He’s been one of the most barreled pitchers this season and has been among the league leaders in allowing hard contact. That’s why he has a .337 BABIP against.

One thing that really concerns me about the Pirates in this game is that they haven’t done much damage against lefties this year. They have a .299 wOBA with an 84 wRC+. They have a spectacular walk rate at 10.5 percent, but a .368 SLG, which ranks among the five lowest in the league. I mentioned yesterday about Pittsburgh’s home batting stats and the game flew over the total, but this is a park that does suppress power. It is an afternoon start, so maybe the ball flies a bit better, but dare I say that I kind of like this matchup for Matt Moore?

Moore is bad, but most pitchers aren’t bad enough to carry a .337 BABIP and a 64.4 percent LOB%, especially with Moore’s ground ball rate. He’s not going to suddenly be great or anything, but I do believe there comes a time when he strings some quality starts together. You want to buy low and sell high, right? It doesn’t get much lower than Moore right now.

Chad Kuhl hasn’t been very effective himself. He has a 5.58 ERA with a 4.28 FIP and a 4.76 xFIP. Like Moore, Kuhl has allowed a lot of hard contact leading to a .344 BABIP against and a 66.5 percent LOB%. The Giants are the worst offense in baseball per wOBA against RHP at .293.

Is it possible to actually stomach an under between these two punching bags? The numbers kind of point that way in my estimation. I think a dice roll on the Giants is safer and less stressful, but don’t be surprised if this game is lower scoring than people would expect.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore (-120); Total: 11

The market seems unsure of where to put this number. Sharper books are seeing a little bit of a Tampa Bay slant, with -119 at CRIS and Pinnacle. Public shops are on the Orioles. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times had an interesting note on today’s starter Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has been working on a mechanical flaw in his side sessions and bullpens that has hurt the trajectory of his pitches to the plate. It makes sense for Odorizzi to fix something, as he has allowed a home run in 11 straight starts.

Dylan Bundy has allowed a dinger in 10 straight starts. These two pitchers are effectively carbon copies of each other. Bundy has a 3.73 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP. Remember that extreme fly ball pitchers are going to have a big ERA/xFIP discrepancy, especially if they don’t have a good K/BB ratio. That’s Bundy. Odorizzi is the same, though he has more strikeouts. His pitcher slash is 4.00/5.48/4.76.

This doesn’t appear to be a great matchup for either pitcher. Both offenses are built on the long ball and both pitchers have obliged in the long ball category. Odorizzi has allowed 17 in 74.1 innings. Bundy has allowed 15 in 99 innings. Since Bundy has been a bit better at limiting the long ball, I guess there’s a slight lean in that direction. It’s very slight. Anything can happen in a game like this.

Chicago (-110) at Cincinnati; Total: 11

Eddie Butler goes for the Cubs against Jackson Stephens for the Reds, who will be making his Major League debut. We’ve seen this line come down anywhere from 20 to 25 cents in the marketplace, as it appears that the market is buying the Reds. Either that or the market is selling the Cubs. Whatever the case, it stuns me to see a kid with a 4.97 ERA, a 4.68 FIP, and a 4.45 xFIP in 76 innings at Triple-A taking on steam against the Cubs.

The market is selling Eddie Butler. That much we know for sure. He has a 3.71 ERA with a 5.27 xFIP in his nine starts, so there aren’t many believers in that profile and I can’t blame them. That being said, evaluating Butler is hard because he had spent his entire MLB career in the Rockies organization before joining the Cubs and things have to be done differently there. I don’t think Butler can keep this up, but he’s not allowing home runs. It seems like the guys that don’t allow home runs can do some crazy things this season.

Jackson Stephens is an interesting pitcher. He started his pro career in 2012 and stepped up a level basically each season. His low minors numbers were pretty bad, but he was decent at High-A in 2015 and Double-A in 2016. His numbers in Triple-A this season aren’t all that inspiring and he’s allowed a BABIP over .300 at each stop. My guess is that there isn’t a ton in the command profile for the kid.

Suffice it to say that I don’t get this move and will have a Cubs ticket today. I like the Reds offense, but Butler generally stays off the barrel and there’s a lot of value in that given today’s hitting environment, even if the K/BB ratios aren’t great.

Miami at Milwaukee (-125); Total: 10

The daily steam on the Miami Marlins turned the road team into a favorite at Miller Park yesterday. We’re seeing some Marlins steam again today as they take the field against the Brewers. This time, Tom Koehler is the pitcher for the preferred side and Zach Davies will go for Milwaukee. There are a lot of Brewers skeptics out there and we’ve seen Marlins steam throughout the last two months, so if you like Miami, get it quick and if you like Milwaukee, wait it out.

Koehler is not a guy that I am interested in backing. Not only did he post a 7.04 ERA with a 6.63 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP in eight starts before his disabled list stint, but he’s been a guy with bad road splits over the majority of his career. Koehler hasn’t started an MLB game since May 16, when he allowed eight runs on seven hits to Houston. His MiLB rehab starts were a mixed bag, as he got tagged in High-A, but pitched well in two Triple-A rehab starts and a relief appearance. I’ve never thought much of Koehler, though I did believe in 2014 and 2015 that he was a good value buy at home. I wouldn’t touch him on the road and I have no interest in doing that here. He walks a lot of guys and doesn’t miss a ton of bats, so he’s a terrible matchup against the Brewers.

The question is whether or not Zach Davies can be competent enough to refrain from giving back his team’s offensive gains. Davies threw seven scoreless in his last start, but didn’t strike anybody out. There’s some inherent regression coming from a start like that. He did give up seven runs on 10 hits the previous start. Davies is a guy that has no margin for error, which is why he has a 4.96 ERA with a 5.14 FIP and a 4.77 xFIP. One thing I will give Davies credit for is that he’s kept the opposition to four runs or less in 13 of his 16 starts, which gives this offense a chance more often than not. Something similar today should give the Brewers a shot against Koehler.

I’ll be looking to buy the Brewers when this line falls into the -115 range. It’s trending in that direction. I wouldn’t lay anything more than that with Miami’s quality offense and good bullpen, but I have no faith in Koehler on the road. If you’d rather play the Brewers team total over, I fully understand.

Washington at St. Louis (-115); Total: 9

The Nationals and Cardinals will get together tonight with a matchup of Gio Gonzalez and Michael Wacha. CRIS opened the Nationals a small favorite at -111, but the market has gone the other way with some ERA/xFIP regression signs in the profile of Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a 2.87 ERA with a 4.48 xFIP. He’s carrying a BABIP that is 34 points below his career average. His walk rate has spiked dramatically, but he’s got an 85.7 percent LOB%, so he’s been able to avoid those major blow-ups. It’s fair to wonder how long that will go on.

The Cardinals are awful against left-handed pitching once again this season, though, so maybe this isn’t the start to look for that. St. Louis ranks 25th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ against southpaws on the year. A .275 BABIP is partially to blame, since the Cardinals have one of the league’s top walk rates against lefties. They should get some traffic in this start against Gonzalez. The question is whether or not they can bring it in. This could be one of those starts where Gonzalez gives up six or only gives up two with seven hits and five walks allowed because the sequencing gods aren’t in attendance.

Michael Wacha had something to build on in his last start. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 4.09 xFIP. Wacha induced a lot of weak contact early in the season and it was working for him, but then things did a 180 and he became a punching bag. Wacha has a .343 BABIP against with a 68.8 percent strand rate. That’s two straight seasons in which Wacha has struggled to leave runners on base. He worked six innings of one-run ball last time out against Cincinnati, so maybe things are about to reverse a little bit for him. This is a very stiff test against the Nationals, however.

In fact, I’m looking at the over here. The Cardinals are going to get traffic against Gonzalez, so hopefully they can drive it in. I don’t trust Wacha against a good lineup. Good lineups have knocked him around this season, with two bad starts against the Dodgers, a bad outing against the Cubs, subpar outings against Milwaukee on two occasions, and a lucky, bare bones quality start against the Yankees.

New York at Houston (-130); Total: 9.5

Give the Yankees all the credit in the world for stepping up on Friday night. They were in a terrible situational spot and had every reason to sulk after the hands that they have been dealt lately, but they hung a number on Lance McCullers and came through with a win. Jordan Montgomery is now taking on steam for Saturday’s game against Francis Martes and the Astros.

I’ve talked about this a lot, but I really like Montgomery. He’s got plus command in an era when just a handful of guys seem to have that. This is a tough test, though. The Astros are tops in wOBA against RHP and fourth in wOBA against LHP, so it pretty much doesn’t matter for them this season. Montgomery has a 3.53 ERA with a 3.82 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP from that left-handed arm slot, with great K/BB rates and pretty strong peripherals across the board.

I do wonder if the Yankees position players can hold up their end of the bargain tonight. This is a tricky spot coming off of a very early morning arrival in Houston on Friday. The fatigue factor generally hits when the adrenaline wears off. The Yankees stepped up last night, but can they do the same tonight?

Fortunately, Francis Martes is tonight’s opponent. Martes has a 5.51 ERA with a 5.34 FIP and a 5.50 xFIP in 16.1 MLB innings this season. Martes will either head to the bullpen or back to Triple-A after this start because Charlie Morton is about ready to rejoin the rotation. That can be a tough spot for a young pitcher. On one hand, he has nothing to lose and can go out there and try to make an impression. There is no chance that Martes stays in the rotation, so he can pitch without worry. On the other hand, he wants to make that final impression because this has not been a good year for him.

Between Triple-A and the bigs, Martes has allowed 34 runs, 29 earned, on 55 hits in 48.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 54 but he has also walked 39. The timing of his call-up was a little bit surprising, but the Astros have not shied away from bringing young players up in short order. Martes has been in pro ball since 2013, but his Triple-A performance didn’t appear to be MLB-worthy.

Truthfully, I’m not sure how to play this one. The Yankees have a clear pitching edge. Blowing out the Astros yesterday meant another day for the key arms in the bullpen to just sit and observe. Those are two really important things and that’s why this line has moved. I want to like the Yankees, but I am a little bit worried that yesterday’s balloon will burst today.

MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (+136, 9.5)

It’s a battle of American League Central rivals which are headed in opposite directions when the Indians visit the Tigers in Game 2 of a doubleheader. The Indians have climbed to the top of the division, while the Tigers seem to be racing towards their inevitable fire sale later this month.

Cleveland has won 11 of their last 16 ball games thanks in large part to a pitching staff that is starting to round into form after a slow start. The Indians have allowed 3.2 runs per game over that 16 game stretch.

Cleveland sends Carlos Carrasco to the mound for Game 2 of the doubleheader and while he is coming off of his worst start of the year, he has been the Tribe’s most consistent starter this season, especially on the road.

Carrasco is 6-1 is with a 2.54 ERA and a 0.987 WHIP in eight starts away from home this season. The veteran right-hander has also performed well against the Tigers over the past two seasons. In his last six starts against Detroit Carrasco is 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA and a 0.923 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will counter with Jordan Zimmermann, who has been consistently inconsistent this season. Zimmermann is 5-5 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.494 WHIP this season.

He has just two quality start in his first nine outings, and then strung together five quality starts together in a row. But in his last outing, he got shelled by the Padres and the MLB’s worst offense.

Carrasco and the Indians are too good and provide too much value in this spot.

Pick: Indians -146

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 8.5)

The Rockies finally ended their eight-game skid by taking the opening game of their three-game set in Arizona 6-3 against the Diamondbacks, but it will be to string together consecutive wins as the go up against D-backs ace Zack Greinke in Game 2 Saturday night.

The Rockies are one of the better road teams in baseball, going 26-19 away from Coors Field this season, but Greinke and the Diamondbacks have been even better playing at home.

Even with the loss last night, Arizona is a very impressive 30-13 at home this season, thanks in large part to an offense that just loves to mash the ball at Chase Field.
Arizona leads the majors in runs scored at home this season by a wide margin, platting 261 runs in 43 games at Chase Field. That equates to 6.1 runs per game. The next closest team is the Los Angeles Dodgers at 5.6 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are also first in hits at home, and third in average and OPS.

As mentioned above, it gets even tougher on the Rockies tonight because they have to go up against Greinke, who has also loved playing at Chase Field. Greinke is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA and a .947 WHIP, while racking up 74 strikeouts in nine starts at home this season.

Greinke faces a Rockies lineup that has stalled a bit recently. Even with the six runs last night, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game in their last nine games and expect Greinke to keep the Rockies struggles going.

Pick: Diamondbacks -155

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 77-69-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (10-3, 2.77 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox gave up a kings ransom to acquire Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox and so far Sale has been worth every penny. 10-3 (12-4 TW-TL), 2.77 ERA, .91 WHIP and as the calendar turns to July 1st, he’s only getting better.

Boston have won six of his last seven outings and he’s thrown eight quality starts in his last nine outings. Over his last three starts he sporting a 1.99 ERA, .71 WHIP, .193 opponents batting average, and has 29 strikeouts to four walks. Sale and the Red Sox are -159 road chalk against the Blue Jays on Canada Day.

Slumping: Zack Wheeler, New York Mets (3-5, 5.29 ERA)

It was destined to happen, maybe it was just his turn but we have another slumping New York Mets pitcher. Welcome Zach Wheeler your the next struggling Mets pitcher and you are absolutely worthy.

In his last two starts, both loses, Wheeler has an ERA of 36.82, a WHIP of 4.6364, only five strikeouts to go along with 3 walks, and he has allowed five home runs. All of this magic in 3.2 innings of work. Wheeler and the Mets are -170 home chalk against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Saturday's Top Trends

* Rangers are 0-6 in the last six meetings in Chicago. Rangers -120 @ White Sox.
* Royals are 7-0 in their last seven opening games of a double-header. Royals -140 vs. Twins.
* Over is 8-1-1 in Matt Moore's last 10 road starts. Giants @ Pirates, O/U: 9.5.
* Angels are 1-10 in Ricky Nolasco's last 11 starts. Angels -115 vs. Mariners.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Wet weather will have an impact on a couple of games across Major League Baseball. There are thunderstorms forecasted and 85 percent chance of rain at first pitch at Camden Yards where the Orioles host the Rays and a possibility of thunderstorms moving into the area of Citi Field where the Phillies are in town to play the Mets.

There are three games on todays slate with double digit hitter’s winds in the forecast:

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (Total: 10.5) - 12-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (Total: 9.5) - 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing to left field
Atlanta Braves at Oakland Athletics (Total: 9) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field.

Ump Of The Day

Marty Foster: Foster is working behind the plate tonight in Houston as the Astros host the New York Yankees and that generally means home cooking will be rewarded. The home team has gotten the win in eight of the 12 games (66.7 percent)Foster has called balls and strikes in 2017 and more recently in six of the last seven games.

If that isn’t enough to make Yankees fans/backers cringe, the Pinstripes have lost 10 of their last 11 games with Foster behind the dish. The Astros are -132 home favorites today.