MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 22nd, 2017

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Pittsburgh (48-48) at Colorado (56-41)

Scheduled Rotation: Williams (3-4) vs. Hoffman (6-1), Kuhl (3-6) vs. Marquez (7-4), Nova (10-6) vs. Freeland (9-7)
Series Price: Rockies -190, Pirates +150

For the first time since April 16 when Pittsburgh was 6-6, it has scratched its way back to .500 on the basis of an incredible 11-2 run. They just swept four from the first-place Brewers and are now only three games from leading the National League Central. They stayed 'under' in 10 of those 11 wins making it a great parlay correlation to consider this weekend. You could see Pittsburgh inching closer to improvements just because all their games seem to stay 'under' with good pitching and fielding. In their last 29 games, the 'under' has gone 23-5-1. However, Colorado's bats are smoking hot right now and they've gone 'over' in six straight while winning their last four coming into this series. But Pittsburgh seems to have the Rockies figured out. They took two of three at PNC Park in June and they've won eight of its last nine in this series at Coors Field. Overall, they're on an 11-3 run against the Rockies. However, the Bucs to win the series offers great value at +165.

Washington (57-37) at Arizona (55-40)

Scheduled Rotation: Scherzer (11-5) vs. Godley (3-4), Roark (7-6) vs. Bailey (2-3), Strasburg (10-3) vs. Ray (9-4)
Series Price: Nationals -130, Diamondbacks +110

It was good to see the Arizona bats finally come alive at Cincinnati where they won two of three, because it was a bad look getting swept at Atlanta coming off the All-Star break. They had lost eight of nine before Cincinnati and in a blink of an eye the Dodgers had a double-digit lead in the Nationa League West. They've got some major issues this weekend beginning Friday night against Max Scherzer which makes laying -130 in the series appear to be the right way to go here. Scherzer, a former Diamondback, has a 1.36 ERA in 11 road starts going 8-2 and his teams have never lost to Arizona in his six career starts. Arizona has lost Zack Godley's last three starts. Washington has won six of its last seven while averaging seven runs a game over that stretch. They average an NL-best 5.6 runs a game. The 'over' has gone 13-4 in the past 17 meetings and the Nationals are 25-10 in the past 35 meetings.

St. Louis (46-49) at Chicago Cubs (49-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (6-8 ) vs Arrieta (9-7), Wainwright (11-5) vs. Lester (6-6), Wacha (7-3) vs. Quintana (5-8 )
Series Price: Cubs -230, Cardinals +180

Maybe the Cubs really can just flip on the switch and say "it's go time." When the bell sounded that the second-half of the season was starting, the Cubs responded by winning all six games and doing so on the road. The Cards have lost four of seven since the All-Star break with an inconsistent lineup averaging just 3.6 runs a game. The thing that stands out the most for the Cards is them staying 'under' in eight of their last nine because of weak bats and good pitching. Look for that trend to continue this weekend. The Cubs swept Cards at Wrigley Field in June with two of the three staying 'under' the number.

Milwaukee (52-46) at Philadelphia (32-61)

Scheduled Rotation: Garza (4-4) vs Nola (6-6), Suter (1-1) vs. Hellickson (6-5), Guerra (1-3) vs. Eickhoff (1-7)
Series Price: Phillies -115, Brewers +105

Hard to believe Station Casinos has the lowly Phillies at a pick 'em to win this series over first-place Milwaukee, but the Brew Crew have looked very sloppy in their last five -- all losses -- which includes a four-game sweep by the Bucs and a Phillies win behind Jeremy Hellickson on Sunday. The Brewers bats have cooled considerably helping eight of their last nine games stay 'under', including their last six. The Phillies have hit .292 since the All-Star break while winning three of six. They've stayed 'under' in 25 of 41 home games this season. The matchup to watch for is Saturday with Hellickson. The Phils had won eight of his first nine starts then they went on to lose eight of his next nine before his 5-2 win at Milwaukee. He's been pitching well enough to win, but lacks support, and has stayed 'under' in six of his past seven starts.

Atlanta (46-48) at LA Dodgers (66-30)

Scheduled Rotation: Garcia (3-7) vs. Wood (11-0), Teheran (7-7) vs. Hill (6-4), Newcomb (1-5) vs. Kershaw (15-2)
Series Price: started Thursday (Dodgers -390, Braves +315)

The Dodgers had won 11 straight and an incredible 31 of 35 before being cooled off Thursday, 6-3, in the opener of this four-game set. The Braves have won six of their last eight road games, but they get the kitchen sink thrown at them over the weekend by having to face an undefeated Alex Wood on Friday and then Clayton Kershaw on Sunday who the Dodgers have won 14 straight behind and 18 of 20 overall which is why his +13.2 units of profit make him the best money pitcher in baseball. Let's see Cy Young voters factor that stat in when choosing between Kershaw and Scherzer. It's quite possible that Sunday's game with a rapidly increased team rating, home rating and starting pitching rating of Kershaw that we could see -400 on the board. The Dodgers also lead baseball with a +1.9 margin of victory. They are the 7-to-2 betting favorite (Bet $100 to win $350) to win the World Series for a good reason; they're the best in baseball.

Houston (63-32) at Baltimore (46-49)

Scheduled Rotation: Fiers (6-4) vs. Jimenez (4-5), McHugh (0-0) vs. Tillman (1-5), McCullers (7-2) vs Bundy (9-8 )
Series Price: Astros -155, Orioles +135

The Orioles got swept three games at Houston in late May, but that is to be expected because the Orioles are an awful 17-30 on the road. However, at home they play some good baseball at 29-19. They've won 13 of their last 19 meetings with the Astros at Camden Yards. But this Astros squad has lost only 11 of 44 road games this season. That's it! Absolutely amazing, but when you average 7.1 runs a game and bat .299 on the road, that's what happens. Houston has gone 28-12-4 to the 'over' on the road. With these shaky Baltimore starters, 'over' is the angle to look in all three games.

Texas (45-50) at Tampa Bay (51-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Darvish (6-8 ) vs. Cobb (8-6), Cashner (4-8 ) vs. Archer (7-5), Ross (2-2) vs. Odorizzi (6-4)
Series Price: Rays -165, Rangers +135

Texas had gotten to .500 on the season and then they go and lose five straight before this series. The Texas starter I feel the sorriest for is Yu Darvish who is pitching great but can't get any support. The Rangers have lost nine of his last 10 starts, including his last six. Nine of those 10 starts stayed 'under.' In fact, he's on a run of staying 'under' in 13 of his last 14 starts. Why stop betting it now as he's being showcased for a trade. The Rays have won six of their last eight and sit only 2.5 games behind the Red Sox in the American League East. Who would've thought they'd be this good?

Boston (54-43) at Los Angeles Angels (47-50)

Scheduled Rotation: Sale (11-4) vs Nolasco (4-10), Price (5-2) vs. Ramirez (8-8 ), Porcello (4-12) vs. Bridwell (3-1)
Series Price: Red Sox -170, Angels +140

Boston has lost 26 of the past 38 meetings with the Angels, including six of its last eight at Anaheim, but they throw their best on the mound this weekend, although the Angels are fortunate they don't face Drew Pomeranz. However, the Sox have lost Chris Sale's last two starts. His last four starts have stayed 'under' and has Ricky Nolasco's. The 'under' has been the theme for the Angels lately as they show some fight. They've gone 15-4-2 to the 'under' in their last 19 and it's something to consider in all three games. Something to also consider is picking on Rick Porcello Sunday. The Angels have gone 17-11 in Game 3 of their series this season.

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Cubs
Wainwright is 4-0, 4.56 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. St Louis is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-3

Lester is 1-2, 12.08 in his last three starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Cubs are 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

St Louis is 8-6 in its last 14 road games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Chicago is 6-1 since All-Star break; under is 3-2 in their last five games.

Brewers @ Phillies
Suter is 1-1, 3.32 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Home side won all four games. Brewers’ first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Hellickson is 1-0, 3.26 in his last five starts; over is 3-0-3 in his last six home starts. Phillies are 5-4 in home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-2

Brewers lost their last six games; their last seven games stayed under. Philly won four of last five games; under is 8-0-1 in their last nine home games.

Marlins @ Reds
O’Grady is 1-1, 5.23 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Miami’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Stephenson is making his first ’17 start; he is 0-2, 8.03 in 13 relief stints (24.4 IP) this year. He was 2-3, 6.08 in 8 starts for the Reds LY, and is 1-2, 3.79 in 7 AAA starts this year.

Miami is 2-5 since All-Star break; over is 6-4 in their last ten road tilts. Cincinnati lost eight of its last nine home games; over is 3-2 in their last five games.

Pirates @ Rockies
Kuhl is 1-0, 2.95 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Pirates are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7-3

Marquez is 2-0, 4.19 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Colorado won his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-4-3

Pirates are 11-2 in last 13 games; under is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games. Colorado won four of its last five games; Rockies’ last seven games went over total.

Nationals @ Diamondbacks
Roark is 1-4, 7.57 in his last six starts (over 11-6-1). Washington is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-1

Koch is making his first ’17 start; he started two games LY, and is 1-1, 8.47 in four AAA starts this year. He allowed four runs in 18 IP in the majors LY.

Washington won six of last eight games; three of Nationals’ last four games stayed under. Arizona lost six of last nine games; under is 7-3-2 in their last 12 home games.

Braves @ Dodgers
Teheran is 1-1, 1.86 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Braves won his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-2

Hill is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Dodgers are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1

Atlanta is 5-3 in its last eight games; over is 5-0 in their last five road games. Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games, but lost last two; over is 3-0 in their last three games.

Padres @ Giants
Perdomo is 3-1, 6.27 in his last four starts (over 8-8 ). San Diego is 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-3

Moore is 0-3, 6.64 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under. Giants lost his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-14-3

San Diego lost four of its last five road games; over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Giants are 3-8 in last 11 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

American League

Astros @ Orioles
McHugh is making his first ’17 start; he is 0-0, 5.06 in five minor league rehab starts his year. He is 43-34, 4.13 in 99 big league starts.

Tillman is 0-0, 6.05 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Orioles are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-12

Astros are 10-5 in last 15 games; over is 7-1 in their last eight road games. Baltimore won four of last five games- over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Rangers @ Rays
Cashner is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Texas is 2-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-3

Archer is 1-0, 3.86 in his last three starts; under is 6-4-1 in his last 11 starts. Tampa Bay is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-4-5

Rangers lost five of their their last six games; three of last four Texas games went over total. Tampa Bay won six of last nine games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.

Blue Jays @ Indians
Stroman is 2-1, 2.05 in his last four starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Toronto is 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-1

Salazar is 1-3, 7.33 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Cleveland is 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1

Toronto lost five of last seven games; under is 3-2 in their last five games. Cleveland lost six of last eight games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 home games.

Tigers @ Twins
Zimmerman is 1-3, 5.29 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 2-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9

Gibson is 1-3, 7.25 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Minnesota is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1

Detroit won five of last seven games; three of their last five games went over. Minnesota is 3-6 in its last nine games; Twins’ last six games stayed under total.

White Sox @ Royals
Pelfrey is 0-2, 7.13 in his last four starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Chicago is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-2

Vargas is 0-1, 14.09 in his last two starts, after he won seven in row before that; over is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Royals are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

White Sox are 0-6 since All-Star break; under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Royals are 4-7 in last 11 games; four of their last five games went over.

Red Sox @ Angels
Price is 3-0, 1.67 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Boston is 3-3 in his road starts; their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4

Ramirez is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts (under 11-7). Angels are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-4

Boston won three of last four games; six of their last eight games stayed under. Angels are 3-6 in last nine games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

New York @ Seattle
Tanaka is 2-2, 3.96 in his last four starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. New York is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2

Miranda is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts (over 4-0). Seattle is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-1

New York won three of last four games; under is 9-0-1 in their last ten games. Mariners won six of their last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine.

Interleague

A’s @ Mets
Manaea is 2-1, 2.67 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Oakland is 4-1 in his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-5

Wheeler is 0-4, 11.29 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-1

Oakland is 8-5 in its last 13 games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. New York is 8-4 in last 12 home games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Chi: Wainwright 12-7; Lester 11-9
Mil-Phil: Suter 1-3; Hellickson 10-9
Mia-Cin: O’Grady 1-1; Stephenson 0-0
Pitt-Colo: Kuhl 7-12; Marquez 9-6
Wash-Az: Roark 10-8; Koch 0-0
Atl-LA: Teheran 9-10; Hill 8-5
SD-SF: Perdomo 7-9; Moore 5-14

American League
Hst-Balt: McHugh 0-0; Tillman 5-7
Tex-TB: Cashner Archer 11-9
Tor-Clev: Stroman Salazar 4-6
Det-Minn: Zimmerman 7-11; Gibson 8-9
Chi-KC: Pelfrey 6-9; Vargas 13-5
Bos-LAA: Price 6-4; Ramirez 10-8
NY-Sea: Tanaka 9-10; Miranda 11-8

Interleague
A’s-NY: Manaea 9-8; Wheeler 6-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Chi: Wainwright 4-19; Lester 9-20
Mil-Phil: Suter 0-4; Hellickson 6-19
Mia-Cin: O’Grady 1-2; Stephenson 0-0
Pitt-Colo: Kuhl 4-19; Marquez 4-15
Wash-Az: Roark 7-18; Koch 0-0
Atl-LA: Teheran 6-19; Hill 3-13
SD-SF: Perdomo 7-16; Moore 7-19

American League
Hst-Balt: McHugh 0-0; Tillman 5-12
Tex-TB: Cashner Archer 5-20
Tor-Clev: Stroman Salazar 5-10
Det-Minn: Zimmerman 7-18; Gibson 4-17
Chi-KC: Pelfrey 4-15; Vargas 5-18
Bos-LAA: Price 4-10; Ramirez 9-18
NY-Sea: Tanaka 9-19; Miranda 8-19

Interleague
A’s-NY: Manaea 4-17; Wheeler 6-16

Umpires

National League
StL-Chi: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Hamari games.
Mil-Phil: Over is 4-0-1 in last five Cooper games.
Mia-Cin: Three of last four Everitt games stayed under.
Pitt-Colo: Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Fairchild games.
Wash-Az: Four of last six LBarrett games stayed under.
Atl-LA: Under is 11-5 in last sixteen Kulpa games.
SD-SF: Last four Nelson games stayed under total.

American League
Hst-Balt: Three of last four Muchlinski games stayed under.
Tex-TB: Five of last six Whitson games went over; hosts are 14-2.
Tor-Clev: Four of last five Barry games stayed under.
Det-Minn: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Hoye games.
Chi-KC: Under is 6-4-2 in last dozen Carlson games.
Bos-LAA: Over is 4-2 in last six Cuzzi games.
NY-Sea: Last six Hoberg games went over the total.

Interleague
A’s-NY: Over is 8-2 in last ten Gorman games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 46-38 AL, favorites -$820
AL @ NL– 50-45 NL, favorites -$528
Total: 91-88 AL, favorites -$1,348

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-40-2
AL @ NL: Over 50-39-3
Total: Over 97-79-5

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Pirates (6-0 past six games, 12-2 past 14 overall)

The Bucs have rattled off six victories in a row, including a key four-game sweep of the first-place Brewers, to move into third place in the suddenly competitive National League Central. The Pirates are just two games back of the Brewers for the perch, and one game back of the defending World Champion Cubs. A big reason for Pittsburgh's success has been their pitching, as they have allowed just 2.79 runs per game over the past 14 outings. The Bucs are also a perfect 7-0 over their past seven games against teams with a winning record, and 5-0 in their past five against a right-handed starter. The win streak will be put to the test with Chad Kuhl on the hill in Coors Field against the Rockies. Pittsburgh is 3-7 over Kuhl's past 10 road outings and 0-4 in his past four vs. the NL West.

Coldest team: White Sox (0-7 past seven games, 1-10 past 11 overall)

It's really no surprise the White Sox are struggling, as they have traded away key pieces of their offense and bullpen to build for the future. The Chicago offense is scoring just 2.57 runs per game during their seven-game losing streak while allowing 6.0 runs per outing. That's obviously not a recipe for success, and should theybe in a close game they have a new closer who was very shaky for the Yankees before being acquired. Chicago has won just 10 of their past 35 on the road, two of their past 10 inside the division and just seven of their past 27 against teams with a winning overall record.

Hottest pitcher: Julio Teheran, Braves (6-0, 2.53 ERA over nine road starts)

Teheran enters with a .500 record overall, thanks mainly to a dismal 1-7 record with a 7.05 ERA over 52 1/3 innings across 10 starts at his new home of SunTrust Park. However, Teheran is pitching at All-Star caliber on the road, going 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA over 57 innings across nine starts with a .225 opponent batting average. The opposition is hitting .288 against him at home. While those road numbers are wonderful, this is the same guy who is 0-5 with a 5.50 ERA in six outings against the Dodgers since the start of the 2014 season.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-10, 5.81 ERA)

It seems like Moore has shown up on this list quite frequently this season. It's probably because the opposition is hitting a robust .301 against him this season and he has turned in a 1.64 WHIP across 105 1/3 innings over 19 starts. He hasn't won since June 20 in Atlanta, a span of five starts, and he has just that one victory since May 13. The Giants are just 2-8 over Moore's past 10 starts, 0-5 over his past five home starts and 0-5 in his previous five outings against National West foes.

Biggest UNDER run: Yankees (10-1 past 11 games overall)

Yankee games have been low scoring lately, with the 'under' hitting in 10 of their past 11 outings and eight straight outings on the road. The 'under' is also 5-1 over their past six against left-handed starting pitching, while going 3-1-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record. Masahiro Tanaka has been pitching better lately, too, and the 'under' has followed. The under is 5-1-1 over his past seven outings, 18-4 in his past 22 against American League West opponents and 5-0 in his past five encounters against the Mariners. The under is 20-8-1 in the past 29 meetings at Safeco Field and 34-16-4 over the past 54 meetings in this series.

Biggest OVER run: Orioles (4-0 past four games, 9-3 past 12 overall)

The Orioles rolled up plenty of offense on the Rangers in their four-game early-week sweep, and the offense spilled over into Friday's loss against the Astros. While they suffered a loss Friday, they made a late run in the 8-7 loss to pull out the 'over' in the bottom of the ninth inning. Baltimore's offense is averaging 9.5 runs per game over the past four outings, and their pitching staff has allowed seven or more runs in five of the past eight contests. The under has been a frequent happening with Chris Tillman on the hill, however, going 7-2-1 over his past 10 at Camden Yards. The over is 4-1-1 in his past six against teams with a winning overall record, however.

Matchup to watch: Angels vs. Red Sox

The Red Sox roll into Saturday's outing with a 5-2 mark over David Price's past seven starts, and 6-2 across his past eight against teams with a losing overall mark. However, Boston has managed a dismal 1-4 record in Price's past five outings when working on five full days of rest. Boston treated the Angels rather rudely in the series opener, adding to Anaheim's woes. They're just 4-9 over the past 13, and 2-5 in their past seven at home. They're also just 1-4 across JC Ramirez's past five home outings while going 1-6 in their past seven against southpaws. Total bettors might enjoy the 'under', as it has hit in four of the past five meetings in Anaheim while going 6-2 over the past eight overall in the series.

Betcha didn’t know: While Tanaka has been better lately, he has lost each of his past two starts whilg going 3-5 with a 5.88 ERA and a .302 opponent batting average across 10 starts on the road this season. For whatever reason he has risen to the occasion when facing Seattle in his career, going 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and one complete game across five starts against the M's. Seattle has won just twice over their past 13 games at Safeco while going 1-8 in their past nine at home vs. RHP. Ariel Miranda has stepped up, however, with the M's 10-4 over his past 14 against teams with a winning overall mark. Still, Seattle is just 7-21 over their past 28 home tries against the Bronx Bombers.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-240) vs. Braves

Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+115) at Twins

Biggest line move: Dodgers (-210 to -240) vs. Braves

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Milwaukee (-115) at Philadelphia; Total: 9

The struggling Milwaukee offense was shut down by Aaron Nola on Friday and the Brewers’ lead got even more precarious in the NL Central. Fortunately, the Cubs lost, so the Brewers stay in first for another day, but the Pirates won again and they’re now just three back. No game in July is a must-win, but today’s tilt would be a real good one for Milwaukee to get. They’re in a flipped favorite situation against the Phillies in a matchup that features Brent Suter against Jeremy Hellickson.

Hellickson and the Phillies opened a very slight -115 favorite and that line has flipped over to Milwaukee as high as -120 in the betting market. Perhaps Hellickson is the elixir that the Brewers lineup needs. He has a 4.44 ERA with a 5.55 FIP and a 5.45 xFIP on the season. He only has 59 strikeouts in 107.1 innings of work. The Brewers have a real problem with swinging and missing, but that shouldn’t be a problem today. After the Regression Monster paid Hellickson a visit for a few weeks, he’s only allowed 11 runs over his last five starts, so he has been pitching a little bit better of late. He also has 25 strikeouts in 30.1 innings over those last five outings. The Brewers may be catching him at a bad time given their offensive woes.

Brent Suter couldn’t break a grape in a fruit fight, as LL Cool J would say, but he’s still been very effective this season in four starts and seven relief outings. Suter has a 3.09 ERA with a 2.90 FIP and a 4.11 xFIP. His fastball tops out in the mid-80s, but he’s got good command and average secondaries. This will be the fourth straight start for Suter, who made a spot start on June 13. He’s allowed five runs, four earned, in 17 innings on 16 hits. He’s had a few tough assignments with the Orioles, Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and then the surging Pirates. He only went 4.2 last time out, but kept his team in the game as best he could.

The move does make sense here given how bad Hellickson has been this season. I’m not sure I want to invest in the Brewers with how things are going, but they would be the side to lean towards.

Miami vs. Cincinnati (-110); Total: 11

O’Grady vs. Stephenson sounds more like a fight on tonight’s UFC on Fox 25 card, but it’s actually the pitching matchup between the Marlins and Reds. That would be left-hander Chris O’Grady against Robert Stephenson. The 27-year-old O’Grady has made two career starts at the MLB level. He’s missing some bats, but he’s also missing some spots. O’Grady has 10 strikeouts in 10.1 innings of work, but he has allowed six runs on 10 hits, as the sequencing gods haven’t been on his side. He has a 5.23 ERA with a 3.64 FIP and a 5.47 xFIP. He’s also induced a ton of fly balls, with a GB% of just 19.4 percent on the year. His starts have been at AT&T Park and Marlins Park, where being a fly ball pitcher is okay. It’s a little bit tougher at Great American Ball Park. O’Grady’s minor league numbers don’t really jump off the page in any way and he actually spent most of his MiLB career as a reliever.

Robert Stephenson was a starter in the minor leagues, but has been used exclusively as a reliever at the MLB level this season. He hasn’t provided much relief with an 8.03 ERA, a 6.60 FIP, and a 5.29 xFIP. He was sent to Triple-A to get his act together and to get stretched out as a starter. While there, he posted a 3.79 ERA with a 4.69 FIP and a 3.31 xFIP in seven starts and one relief outing. He did strike out 45 in 40.1 innings, but also allowed eight home runs. Stephenson just doesn’t have Major League-caliber command. He’s allowed 16 HR in 61.2 MLB innings and 25 HR in 177 innings at Triple-A over the last two seasons.

This is one of those games that I generally don’t like, where I have to decide which starter will suck less. I think it will be O’Grady, in all honesty. I’d lean with the Marlins here today. It’s not a strong lean, but they are the better overall team and the pitching matchup may favor them slightly.

Oakland at New York (-105); Total: 9

It’s almost like people have taken notice of how solid Sean Manaea is. The Mets opened a -125 favorite at Bookmaker and the market has dropped this number down to a virtual money line pick ‘em. Manaea’s dance partner will be Zack Wheeler.

Just think of the numbers Manaea could put up with a competent defensive ballclub behind him. The 25-year-old southpaw has a 3.68 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning in his 100.1 innings of work. His LOB% has gradually been rising, so his ERA has gradually been falling. Since May 26, Manaea has a 2.86 ERA with a 3.20 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. His 81.3 percent LOB% makes up for some low marks early in the season that gave him an ERA that wasn’t indicative of how he had actually pitched. He’s only allowed five home runs over his last 10 starts. Guys that don’t allow home runs are like gold nowadays.

Zack Wheeler had some flashes, but we’re still waiting to see his command come back. Wheeler has a 4.98 ERA with a 4.82 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP in his 81.1 innings of work this season. His walk rate is up a little bit and he’s allowed 13 home runs, but also a .329 BABIP against, so his command profile isn’t very strong. The A’s have a lot going on right now with trade whispers and rumors, so they have been scuffling a little bit since sweeping the Indians to open the second half, but this looks to be a favorable spot for them.

Manaea is still underrated to me. The opening line showed it and I think there’s a reasonable case to be made for the A’s to actually be road chalk here with that edge in the pitching matchup and the unfamiliar lefty angle. I’ll take Oakland this evening.

Toronto at Cleveland (-135); Total: 8.5

The market is right with today’s movement in the Blue Jays vs. Indians game. Cleveland’s offense awoke from its week-long slumber to hammer out 13 runs against the Jays last night, but today is a new day. Marcus Stroman is not Marco Estrada. He’s the one getting the start tonight. The Indians will counter with Danny Salazar, who returns from a lengthy DL stint and an up-and-down rehab stint in the minor leagues. It felt like the Indians had some reservations about activating Salazar, but Corey Kluber’s scheduled start was pushed back due a stiff neck, so Salazar gets the call.

Stroman is having a tremendous season with a 3.10 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, and a 3.53 xFIP. All of his peripherals look solid, especially his 79.5 percent LOB%. I’ve talked a little bit about Stroman lately and I do have some concerns about him. He’s carrying a 79.5 percent LOB%, but he has experienced a massive drop in strikeouts with runners on base. His K% with the bases empty is 22.7 percent, but it falls to 16.4 percent with men on base. His BABIP is 99 points lower with men on base than it is with the bases empty. That seems like something that would regress a little bit to me. He’s had some issues with control of late, with a 10.7 percent BB% in July.

Salazar was having command issues when he left the Indians with an injury. He had a 5.40 ERA with a 4.59 FIP and a 3.57 xFIP. His 22.4 percent HR/FB% was a big outlier and so was his .366 BABIP against. He had 77 strikeouts in 55 innings, but had also walked 28. One thing that really concerns me about Salazar in this start is that he’s coming back to the big leagues for his first start since May 27 and he has had some serious issues settling into games.

Opponents are batting .338/.433/.693 the first time through the order against Salazar this year in his 10 starts. He has an 8.83 ERA in that split with a 26/12 K/BB ratio and seven home runs allowed in 90 plate appearances. This is one of those games where you can play a lot of things to your advantage.

My card for this game would look like this:

Toronto +125

First inning run “Yes”

Over 8.5

Live bet Cleveland

I think you can start with a position on Toronto and then freeroll the Indians live when Salazar puts them in a little bit of an early hole. You can attack this game in a lot of ways and I think these plays all make sense.

Pittsburgh at Colorado (-130); Total: 12

The Pirates kept right on rolling with last night’s blowout win at Coors Field. They’ll look to add another tick mark to the win column tonight as a small underdog with Chad Kuhl up against German Marquez. Kuhl has a 4.85 ERA with a 4.15 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP on the season. He has an average strikeout rate, with a slightly below average walk rate, and some unfortunate sequencing luck. Kuhl has kept the ball in the park, which is an excellent asset, but he has a 68.3 percent LOB%, so that’s why he has a 0.7-run difference between his ERA and his FIP. He does throw really hard, but he can’t seem to generate a lot of swings and misses and never really has.

The Pirates offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Gregory Polanco, who has been one of the hotter hitters, might miss today’s game with a hamstring injury, so factor that into your handicapping of the Pittsburgh lineup against German Marquez. Marquez has a 4.34 ERA with a 3.92 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP on the season. He’s actually put together a pretty solid season, all things considered. Pitching at Coors Field isn’t easy. Pitching on the road after pitching at Coors Field isn’t easy. He’s racked up some strikeouts and he’s kept the ball in the park. Those are two really important things for all pitchers, but especially those in Colorado.

This is a tough game for me to pick. I actually like Marquez more than Kuhl, but the Pirates have been playing at such a torrid clip that it’s tough to go against them right now. I’ll probably pass and focus on other opportunities.

New York (-130) at Seattle; Total: 8.5

Has Aaron Judge’s home run landed yet?

There will probably be a delay in tonight’s game so that Judge’s home run can reenter the earth’s atmosphere and come crashing down somewhere. Seattle has had a ton of baserunners in this series, but baseball is a game about sequencing and they haven’t sequenced well. The Mariners had seven hits and three walks last night and scored one run. In the first game, they had 10 hits and two walks and scored one run. It’s tough to win ballgames when you can’t get the big hits.

Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill today, looking to improve upon his 5.33 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP. Tanaka’s problem has been the long ball this season. He’s allowed 24 of them in 109.2 innings. He allowed 22 in 199.2 innings last season. We have seen some improvements from Tanaka over his last five starts. He’s allowed 11 runs, five in one start, but he’s only allowed three home runs and has 36 strikeouts across those 33 innings of work. He’s also cut back his walk rate. Tanaka seems to have fixed whatever mechanical issue was ailing him. That’s huge for the Yankees, who desperately need him to get on the right track with Michael Pineda done for the year.

Ariel Miranda has fallen on some tough times lately. He has a 4.35 ERA with a 5.32 FIP and a 5.37 xFIP on the year. He’s also had home run issues of his own with 22 allowed in 109.2 innings of work. He’s allowed 11 runs over his last two starts and has a 5.75/6.79/6.03 pitcher slash in his last six outings. He’s allowed 11 HR in that span. It’s tough to put your team behind the eight-ball like that, even with a Seattle offense that is a pretty decent group.

Again, the Yankees have to be evaluated differently now with their bullpen dynamic. This price at -130 may not be high enough given the starting pitching edge and the potential dominance of the bullpen. I’ll lay it and play it again with New York.

MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (+105, 11)

If there has been one thing holding back fans and pundits alike, from saying the Astros will win the American League, it’s the health of their starting rotation. But the staff gets a boost Saturday as Collin McHugh makes his season debut for the Astros in Game 2 of their three-game weekend set in Baltimore versus the Orioles.

McHugh has missed all of the 2017 campaign, with what the team called an “elbow impingement” in his throwing arm. McHugh is 43-26 with a 3.71 and a 1.249 WHIP since becoming a full-time starter for the Astros back in 2014.

He will be a welcome addition to a rotation that has used nine starters this season and has been missing ace Dallas Keuchel since early June.

The Orioles meanwhile counter with Chris Tillman. The right-hander is coming off a strong start, but his season overall has been a disappointment. Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.20 ERA and a WHIP of 2.018.

Tillman will have his hands full with arguably the deepest lineup in the Bigs, which ranks first in almost every major offensive category, including runs per game (5.9), team average (.290), OPS (.856) and home runs (158).

The Astros also have the best road record in the MLB at 34-11 and are far and away the most profitable road team at $2160 (based on $100 wagers). What makes those numbers more impressive is that they are 34-11 against the runline on the road.

Expect the Astros bats to jump all over Tillman and while they are a great runline bet, the moneyline present too much value today.

Pick: Astros -127

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners (+130, 8.5)

Aaron Judge’s mammoth home run aside, the Yankees offense has been inconsistent for the month of July but has done enough to take the first two games of their series against the Mariners in Seattle.

Game 3 of the four-game set goes Saturday night at Safeco Field with Masahiro Tanaka toeing the rubber for the Yankees, while the Mariners counter with Ariel Miranda.

The Yankees have been scoring just 3.6 runs per game in the month of July, that’s down almost two full runs from their season average of 5.3 per game. The inconsistent offense has resulted in the Under cashing in the Yankees last eight road games and in 10 of their last 11 games overall.

Miranda is the man who has to deal with that lineup Saturday night. The 28-year-old Cuban southpaw has come into his own in his first full season in the big leagues, especially at home. Miranda is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP, while allowing opponents to hit just .190 in nine starts at Safeco Field.

Tanaka, on the other hand, has been the model of inconsistency this season. He is 7-9 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.350 WHIP. The Japanese right-hander has been better of late however, throwing four quality starts in his last five outings, pitching to a 3.00 ERA and a 1.030 WHIP.

Tanaka has also loved pitching against the Mariners over the course of his career, going 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.811 WHIP, while racking up 38 punch outs to just four walks.

The Under is also 4-0 in the Mariners last four games and 8-2 in their last 10 games overall.

Pick: Under 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1

Season To Date: 94-82-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: David Price, Boston Red Sox (5-2, 3.39 ERA, $+65)

David Price got off to a rough start in his Red Sox tenure, 2016 was disappointing for the lefty and injuries hindered his start this season, but he has turned things around.

Price has been dominating in his last three starts, owning a very impressive .90 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. The sexiest stat is 22 strikeouts and only four walks. This is what Boston wanted when they handed Price a seven-year, $217 million contract.

Price and the Red Sox are +122 road chalk against the Los Angeles Angels.

Slumping: Mike Pelfrey, Chicago White Sox (3-7, 4.64 ERA, $-97)

Mike Pelfrey has been predictively mediocre this season and maybe that is being kind, but we here at Covers are nice guys. The cringe-worthy stat with the White Sox right-hander is that he only has two quality starts in his seventeen trips to the rubber in 2017.

In his last five appearances, he has thrown a total of 18 innings, allowed 16 runs, six home runs, walked 12, and struck out a measly 13 batters.

Pelfrey and the White Sox are +171 road dogs against Jason Vargas and the Kansas City Royals.

Saturday's Top Trends

* Cubs are 22-5 in John Lester's last 27 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -152 vs. Cardinals.

* Pirates are 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. +120 @ Colorado.

* Mariners are 2-11 in their last 13 home games. +125 vs. Yankees.

* Under is 7-1 in White Sox last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Total: 11.

* Tigers are 2-9 in Zimmermann's last 11 road starts. -118 @ Minnesota.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Rains and thunderstorms will likely be an issue today at Citizens Bank Park where the Phillies will welcome the Milwaukee Brewers. There is a 70 percent chance of rain at first pitch and the remainder of the night is a mix of 40-60 percent.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing in Cincinnati for tonight's game between the Red and Marlins. It’s looking fine early but as the night goes on the threat of rain grows as high as 70 percent. Same thing in Queens, where the Mets are hosting Athletics, but it might not affect the game as things aren’t forecasted to get messy until late in the evening.

There isn't much in the way of wind across Major League Baseball on today, so we'll just take our daily look at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Where a hitter's wind is blowing out to straight center 10-15 miles per hour. The total is currently at 8.5

Ump Of The Day

Not great news for the visiting Texas Rangers, Chad Whitson is behind the plate tonight in Tampa and he seems to love seeing the home team fans go happy. In his 16 appearances calling balls and strikes this season the home team has won 14 games. That has resulted in a league leading $1168 home team money total.

Also worth noting that the Over has cashed in 11 of his 16 (68.8 percent) appearances behind the dish and in six of his last seven.

The Rays are -183 home chalk today and the total is currently sitting at 8.5.