MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 29th, 2017

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Colorado (58-45) at Washington (61-39)

Scheduled rotation: Marquez (8-4) vs. Roark (8-6), Freeland (10-7) vs. Fedde (0-0), Gray (3-1) vs. Jackson (1-1)

Series price: Nationals -155, Rockies +135

Look for lots of runs scored in this series just like when they met in April at Coors Field where the Nationals took three of four with all four games flying Over the total. The Nats scored a total of 46 runs between the four games. Not a lot has changed offensively for the Nats since then as they remain the NL leader in almost every hitting category including runs scored (5.6), batting average (.279) and slugging (.858). The Rockies come in hitting well also and have gone Over the total in 10 of their last 12 games. Colorado's offense will be aided this weekend because they'll miss Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg who just went on the DL. Taking Strasburg's place will be the Nats 2014 first round pick from UNLV, Erick Fedde, who makes him MLB debut Saturday. I'm rooting for him to do well because I went to UNLV also, but I'll be on the Over.

Chicago Cubs (54-47) at Milwaukee (54-50)

Scheduled rotation: Quintana 96-8 ) vs. Suter (1-1), Hendricks (4-3) vs. Guerra (1-4), Lackey (7-9) vs. Davies (12-4)

Series price: Cubs -180, Brewers +160

The Cubs are finally rolling and come in on an 11-2 run while the Brewers have lost nine of their last 11. The Cubs have taken control of the wide open NL Central and have a 1.5-game lead over the Brewers. Something to watch for here is the totals going Over. The Over has gone 13-3-1 in their last 17 meetings.

San Francisco (40-63) at LA Dodgers (71-31)

Scheduled rotation: Moore (3-10) vs. Wood (11-1), Blach (6-6) vs. Hill (7-4), Cain (3-9) vs. Ryu (3-6)

Series price: Dodgers -400, Giants +340

You can throw out the records and standings in this one and expect the Giants to be at their best against their most hated rivals. This is the playoffs for the Giants and they're on a run of winning nine of the last 13 against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won five straight coming in. They haven't lost since Clayton Kershaw went down Sunday with a back injury (out 4-6 weeks). But the Giants have won two straight. Taking the Giants to win the series offers some decent value. Some of these match-ups we've seen already this season. Ty Blach beat Rich Hill, 2-1, in May and they'll hook up Saturday. Matt Cain beat Hyun-Jin Ryu, 2-1, in April and they'll face each other on Sunday. It's tough betting against a team on a 44-11 run, but San Francisco should be game. One note to also keep in mind is that the Giants have gone 10-3-2 to the Over in their last 15 games.

Pittsburgh (50-52) at San Diego (45-57)

Scheduled rotation: Kuhl (3-7) vs. Wood (1-3), Nova (10-7) vs. Lamet (4-4), Cole (8-7) vs. Richard (5-11)

Series price: Pirates -140, Padres +120

The most interesting thing about this series is what will happen with the totals because both teams are streaking in opposite directions. Petco Park is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball, but the Padres are currently ona run of going 12-3-1 to the Over in their last 16 games. The Pirates have been getting solid pitching, good fielding and can't hit so the Under has been cashing regularly. The Under has gone 19-6-1 in their last 26 games. Because the Pirates have their best two starters going on Saturday and Sunday, laying the -140 with them to win the series is a good play.

Kansas City (53-47) at Boston (56-47)

Scheduled rotation: Vargas (12-4) vs. Porcello (4-13), Cahill (4-3) vs. TBA, Hammel (4-8 ) vs. Rodriguez (4-3)

Series price: Red Sox -175, Royals +155

Kansas City is red hot with an eight-game winning streak, but they can't make up any ground in the AL Central because all of a sudden the Indians have decided play their best ball and ride a seven-game win streak. The Royals still sit two games out of first-place. This is a very live spot for the Royals to keep rolling and win the series and things were made a bit easier as David Price was scratched and put on the DL Friday. The Red Sox return home after a poor road trip (2-4) and have lost five of their last seven allowing the Yankees to get back into the picture in the division after they faded. Boston only has a half-game lead over the Yankees. The Royals took two of three from Boston at Kansas City in June and have won eight of the past 11 meetings overall. Keep note of Boston currently staying Under in nine of its last 13 games. The Royals are batting .305 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are hitting only .215 over the same span. Big Papi, where are you?

Cleveland (55-45) at Chicago White Sox (39-60)

Scheduled rotation: Salazar (3-5) vs. Holland (5-9), Kluber (8-3) vs. Gonzalez (5-9), Tomlin (7-9) vs. Rondon (1-4)

Series price: Indians -330, White Sox +270

This is a big series price for an Indians squad that has only won five of the nine meetings with the White Sox. However, the Indians are playing their best ball of the season and ride a seven-game win streak. At the same time, no team is playing worse than the White Sox who have lost 15 of their last 17. The best Indians theme all season has to bet them Under the total, especially on the road where they're on a 34-16-7 Under run.

Houston (67-34) at Detroit (45-55)

Scheduled rotation: Keuchel (9-0) vs. Zimmermann (6-8 ), McHugh (0-0) vs. Boyd (4-5), McCullers (7-2) vs. Verlander (5-7)

Series price: Astros -175, Tigers +155

Houston has lost 13 of their last 17 meetings in Detroit, but throw all that out the window. Both these squads are in drastically different places. When they last met in May, at Houston, the Astros took three of four. They kick off the series by welcoming back Dallas Keuchel who they've won 10 of 11 behind. Houston on the road is the most dangerous team in baseball going 37-13 for a profit of +22.2 units. They've only stayed Under the total in 13 of those games because they average 7.1 runs a game while batting .303 on the road. That is incredible! Detroit comes in having lost three straight and kick things off Friday with Jordan Zimmermann who has a 7.42 ERA between his last three starts, all of which went Over. Playing these totals Over daily in this series looks like the move.

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Newcomb is 0-3, 9.16 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Braves are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6

Eickhoff is 2-0, 3.71 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Phillies are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-1

Braves lost five of last six games; over is 8-1 in their last nine games. Philly is 6-3 in its last nine games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Rockies @ Nationals
Marquez is 3-0, 2.48 in his last three starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Colorado is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-4-3

Roark is 2-0, 3.46 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2

Colorado lost seven of last eight road games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 games overall. Rockies are 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Washington won four of last five games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games. Nationals are 10-7 in home series openers.

Reds @ Marlins
Adleman is 0-3, 6.64 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Reds are 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8-2

Conley is 1-0, 1.39 in his last two starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Miami is 1-3 in his home starts— their 5-inning record with him: 3-3-2

Cincinnati is 2-13 in its last 15 games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. Miami won six of last eight games; four of last five Miami games went over.

Cubs @ Brewers
Hendricks is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Cubs are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

Guerra is 0-3, 9.86 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Brewers are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6-2

Cubs are 11-3 since All-Star Game; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Milwaukee is 3-8 in its last 11 games; over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Greinke is 4-0, 2.12 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Arizona is 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-3

Leake is 1-2, 8.66 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. St Louis is 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-3

Arizona is 3-8 in its last 11 road games; under is 3-1 in their last four road games. St Louis won four of its last five games; under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games.

Giants @ Dodgers
Blach is 2-1, 4.10 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Giants are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-7

Hill is 3-0, 1.42 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6-2

Giants lost four of last five road games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Dodgers won their last six games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Pirates @ Padres
Nova is 2-2, 6.08 in his last four starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. Pirates are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-1

Lamet is 2-1, 4.70 in four home starts (SD 3-1). Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. San Diego’s first 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Pirates lost five of last six games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. San Diego won five of last seven home games; over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.

American League

Rays @ New York
Snell is 0-4, 6.25 in his last six starts; four of his last five stayed under. Rays are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-1

Smith allowed four runs in 3.2 IP (59 PT) in his only ’17 start, a 6-4 win in Seattle (over 1-0). NY’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Rays lost seven of last nine games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. New York won seven of last eight games; four of their last six games went over.

Angels @ Blue Jays
Petit is making his first ’17 start; he is 2-0, 2.70 in 36 relief stints (56.2 IP) this season. Petit has started 58 major league games, but only two from 2015-17. This is a bullpen game for Halos.

Lirirano is 1-1, 10.38 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Toronto is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Angels lost four of their last four games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Toronto won four of its last five games (under 4-1).

Royals @ Red Sox
Cahill was 1-1, 6.46 in his last three starts for San Diego; this is his KC debut. Under is 3-1-2 in his last six starts. Padres were 3-4 in his road starts.

Rodriguez is 0-2, 7.56 in his last three starts (under 9-3), Boston is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6

Royals won their last nine games; under is 5-1 in their last six. Boston lost five of last six games; under is 12-2-1 in last 15 games at Fenway Park.

Astros @ Tigers
McHugh allowed four runs in 4.2 IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Baltimore. Astros’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Boyd is 2-0, 4.50 in his last two starts; his last four starts went over. Detroit is 1-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6-3

Astros won five of last seven games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Detroit lost seven of last nine games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games.

Orioles @ Rangers
Gausman is 2-0, 0.75 in his last two starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12

Dirks is 2-0, 4.30 in five starts this year, last of which was June 30 (over 3-2). Texas’ first 5-inning record with him: 3-0-2

Orioles lost five of last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Texas is 5-7 in its last 12 games; over is 6-4 in their last ten.

Indians @ White Sox
Kluber is 2-1, 1.75 in his last five starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six. indians are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-7-2

Gonzalez is 1-1, 1.35 in his last two starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Chicago is 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-2

Cleveland won its last eight games; over is 6-3 in their last nine. White Sox are 1-12 since All-Star Game; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven.

Twins @ A’s
Mejia is 3-1, 2.38 in his last six starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Twins are 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-4

Smith is 0-1, 3.79 in three starts (under 3-0). A’s lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1

Twins lost four of their last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Oakland lost nine of last 11 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six.

Interleague

Mets @ Mariners
deGrom is 8-0, 1.90 in his last eight starts, last four of which went over. New York is 7-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-5-1

Gallardo is 1-4, 8.74 in his last seven starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine. Seattle is 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Mets are 4-6 in last ten road games; over is 7-1 in their last eight games. Seattle is 5-14 in its last 19 home games; under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Col-Wsh: Marquez 10-6; Roark 11-8
Atl-Phil: Newcomb 2-6; Eickhoff 4-13
Cin-Mia: Adleman 7-10; Conley 4-4
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 6-6; Guerra 4-8
Az-StL: Greinke 14-6; Leake 9-11
SF-LA: Blach 7-9; Hill 9-5
Pitt-SD: Nova 11-9; Lamet 6-4

American League
TB-NY: Snell 3-8; Smith 1-0
LA-Tor: Petit 0-0; Liriano 11-6
KC-Bos: Cahill 0-0 (7-4); Rodriguez 7-5
Hst-Det: McHugh 1-0; Boyd 6-7
Balt-Tex: Gausman 11-11; Dirks 2-3
Clev-Chi: Kluber 9-7; Gonzalez 6-9
Minn-A’s: Mejia 7-8; Smith 1-2

Interleague
NY-Sea: deGrom 14-6; Gallardo 5-10

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Col-Wsh: Marquez 5-16; Roark 8-19
Atl-Phil: Newcomb 2-8; Eickhoff 5-17
Cin-Mia: Adleman 5-17; Conley 3-8
Chi-Mil: Hendricks 4-12; Guerra 2-12
Az-StL: Greinke 2-20; Leake 4-20
SF-LA: Blach 5-16; Hill 3-14
Pitt-SD: Nova 6-20; Lamet 5-10

American League
TB-NY: Snell 2-11; Smith 0-1
LA-Tor: Petit 0-0; Liriano 8-17
KC-Bos: Cahill 3-11; Rodriguez 4-12
Hst-Det: McHugh 0-1; Boyd 4-13
Balt-Tex: Gausman 5-22; Dirks 2-5
Clev-Chi: Kluber 3-16; Gonzalez 5-15
Minn-A’s: Mejia 3-15; Smith 1-3

Interleague
NY-Sea: deGrom 7-20; Gallardo 8-15

Umpires

National League
Atl-Phil: Favorites won seven of last eight Carlson games.
Cin-Mia: Over is 4-0-4 in last eight Wendelstedt games.
Chi-Mil: Underdogs won five of last seven Timmons games.
Az-StL: Under is 7-3 in last ten Wolf games.
SF-LA: Over is 12-3-2 in last 17 Marquez games.
Pitt-SD: Over is 6-1-1 in last seven Torres games.

American League
TB-NY: Favorites won 12 of last 13 Iassogna games.
LA-Tor: Under is 9-6-1 in Tumpane games this season.
KC-Bos: Under is 11-6-1 in Tichenor games this season.
Hst-Det: Over is 13-2-1 in last sixteen Gonzalez games.
Balt-Tex: Five of last seven Dreckman games went over.
Clev-Chi: Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Reynolds games.
Minn-A’s: Last four Hallion games went over the total.

Interleague
NY-Sea: Home teams won all four Livensparger games (over 2-2).

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 51-42 AL, favorites -$716
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 100-98 AL, favorites -$1,082

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 48-45-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 108-87-6

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Royals (9-0 past seven overall)

The red-hot Royals continue their series in Beantown against the Red Sox, looking to hit double digits with their win streak. They send the newly acquired Trevor Cahill to the mound at Fenway Park opposite left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Kansas City has won nine in a row, four stragiht on the road and they're 4-1 over their past five on the road vs. LHP. The Royals have won just six of their past 23 on the road against teams with a home winning percentage over .600, however, and they're just 1-4 in their past five overall vs. LHP. The Red Sox have struggled with E-Rod on the hill, however, going 4-9 over Rodriguez's past 13 starts at Fenway and 0-6 in his past six tries against AL Central foes.

Coldest team: Reds (2-13 past 15 overall)

The Reds have dropped the first two of their four-game set in Miami, outscored 11-5 so far. Cincinnati has droped five in a row, and eight of their past nine overall. The Reds are also a dismal 2-12 over their past 14 tries against NL East foes, while going 1-9 in their past 10 against teams with losing records. Tim Adleman hasn't been terribly helpful for the Reds, as they're just 0-5 over his past five starts on the road and 1-4 over his past five outings overall. The Marlins have been hot, winning four of their past five, while going 9-2 in their past 11 at home against teams with a road winning percentage under .400. They're been hot with Adam Conley on the bump, too, going 4-1 over his past five starts on a Saturday. They're also 15-6 in their past 21 at home vs. RHP.

Hottest pitcher: Corey Kluber, Indians (8-3, 2.74 ERA)

The All-Star Kluber has ascended to fourth in the majors in ERA, sitting at 2.74. He has been even better at Progressive Field in Cleveland, going 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Unfortunately, his start will come on the road where he is just 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA across six outings, although each of his two complete games this season have come away from home. He has been untouchable lately, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA over six starts in June, and 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA across his past four outings in July. He has been hard on the Pale Hose in his previous two outings this season, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and one of his two complete games, striking out 17, walking four and allowing zero homers.

Coldest pitcher: Tim Adleman, Reds (5-8, 5.11 ERA)

Adleman has struggled with a 5-8 record across 18 starts and one relief appearance so far this season, posting a subpar 5.11 ERA. In addition, he is tied for ninth in the majors with 23 homers allowed over just 100 1/3 innings while opponents are hitting .259 against him. He does have a very respectable 92 strikeouts while walking just 39, so many of his splits aren't horrible. He is 1-5 with a 5.23 ERA over eight road outings while serving up eight homers over 41 1/3 innings while opponents are hitting .269 against him. This will be his first-career meetings against the Marlins.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (10-3 past 13 overall)

Total bettors have been cashing frequently with the 'under' and the Brewers. The under has connected in 10 of their past 13 games overall, while going 18-7-1 across their past 26 against right-handed starting pitchers. In addition, the under is 5-0 in Milwaukee's past five inside their division while going 9-3 across Junior Guerra's past 12 against NL Central opponents. The under is also 11-4 across Guerra's past 15 against a team with a winning overall mark. While the over is 8-1 in the past nine meetings in this series, the under is 14-5-2 inthe past 21 battles in this series at Miller Park while going 9-3 over the past 12 starts by Kyle Hendricks against the boys from Cream City.

Biggest OVER run: Braves (5-0 past five overall)

The 'over' continues to hit frequently for the Bravos, going 5-0 over their past five outings while going 4-0 in their past four inside the division. The over is also 4-0 in their past four against a right-handed starting pitcher while hitting in 10 of the past 11 road outings. The over is also 41-20-2 in their past 63 road games against a right-handed starter. While the over has hit plenty for Atlanta lately, the under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in the City of Brotherly Love. The under is also 10-4-1 in Philadelphia's past 15 at home, 4-1 in Jerad Eickhoff's past five home outings and 3-1-1 in his past five assignments overall.

Matchup to watch: Rangers vs. Orioles

The Orioles and Rangers have both been very disappointing this season, and each finds themselves under .500 and most likely to be sellers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Kevin Gausman has been a huge bummer for the O's this season, although he has picked up the pace lately. He is 7-7 with a 5.79 ERA across 112 innings over 22 starts, but he is a solid 3-0 with a 4.85 ERA across five July outings while opponents are hitting .262 against him. That isn't great, but opponents are hitting .312 overall against him, so he has been trending in the right direction. Gausman continues to struggle on the road, going 3-4 with a 6.90 ERA over 10 outings while the opponent is hitting .339 against him. The Orioles have won four of the past five in this series, although they're a dismal 1-8 in their past nine trips to Arlington.

Betcha didn’t know: Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre continues to inch closer to 3,000 hits. He needs just two more knocks to join the vaunted club. He is 4-for-14 (.286) iwth a double, a walk amd two strikeouts in his career against Gausman. Perhaps no one has been hotter than Nomar Mazara for the Rangers, however, as he is 7-for-12 with four runs scored and six RBI over his past three outings. That's the complete opposite of O's DH MarkTrumbo, who enters hitless across his past 13 at-bats with five strikeouts over the past three contests.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-270) vs. Giants

Biggest public underdog: Twins (+110) at Athletics

Biggest line move: Yankees (-130 to -150) vs. Rays

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

New York (-135) at Seattle; Total: 9

We’ll go ahead and skip down to the night games, since the Rays and Yankees have seen a 20-cent line move on the home team and the Jays game has Francisco Liriano slated to start. The Mets are playing day baseball in Seattle, which could be a little bit of a shock to the system. We’ve seen the market come in on the Mariners in this one, which is a bit surprising given that it is Jacob deGrom vs. Yovani Gallardo. deGrom is the one trustworthy starter in the Mets rotation and Gallardo is, well, Gallardo.

I think the biggest thing is laying a -155 or -150 price on the road with the Mets. Even laying -135 seems kind of high for the way this team is and has been playing. deGrom has been brilliant this season with a 3.30 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, and a 3.45 xFIP. He’s having a career-best season in the strikeout department. His HR/FB% is a bit high at 15.8 percent, but he gave up four of his 19 home runs in his July 7 start against the Cardinals. Since June 18, when he fixed a mechanical flaw, deGrom has allowed six HR in 52.2 innings of work with a 1.71 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, and a 3.47 xFIP. Four of those six HR came in that one start.

The Mariners offense is a quality group, hence the reservations about laying the big road price. Gallardo, though, is not a quality pitcher. The right-hander has a 5.58 ERA with a 4.94 FIP and a 4.81 xFIP on the season. He has poor K/BB peripherals and a 14.7 percent HR/FB%. Gallardo had a 5.42 ERA with a 5.04 FIP and a 5.22 xFIP in 118 innings last season, so we’re talking about a guy that really hasn’t been effective since 2015. That’s not a guy that I’m all that interested in backing. Gallardo’s last time out was actually his return to the rotation for the first time since June 17. He allowed three solo home runs.

Laying a price with the Mets is a scary proposition right now. Now that this line has fallen, they’re inching towards playable range, but this is still a game I don’t have much interest in. If Gallardo gives up three, the Mariners have a chance. If he gives up five, that chance goes down considerably. He’ll probably do one or the other.

Houston (-120) at Detroit; Total: 10.5

The Astros scratched out a gritty win over the Tigers yesterday and are hoping to make things a little bit easier today. It’ll be Collin McHugh for the AL-leading Astros against Matt Boyd for the freefalling Tigers. This is just the second start back for McHugh, who was sidelined with an elbow injury early in the year. He made five rehab starts covering 16 innings, but only went 4.2 innings in his first start. He allowed four runs on four hits, with two home runs in the mix. He struck out four, walked two, and hit a guy. It’s easy to see why the market would be skeptical of a guy coming back from injury, especially one that had a 4.34 ERA in 2016. I think McHugh will wind up being a decent buy-low guy once he gets back into rhythm. His peripherals were better than his ERA last season. I’m just not sure that time is right now.

Matt Boyd has struggled this year with a 5.48 ERA, a 4.56 FIP, and a 5.09 xFIP. Boyd’s K/BB rates are not good and he’s allowed a .347 BABIP against. His HR/FB% is solid at 10.3 percent, but he’s given up a lot of hard-hit balls that have stayed in the yard in his 67.1 innings of work. Boyd returned to the Tigers rotation coming out of the All-Star Break and has made consecutive quality starts with three runs allowed across six innings.

I don’t love either one of these pitchers, but this total looks a little bit high to me. Comerica Park has a very spacious outfield and it is hardly known as a great hitter’s park. I’d expect 10.5s at Chase Field or Yankee Stadium, but I can’t say I’d expect one at Comerica. Even with a lackluster pitching matchup, I’d be surprised to see 11 runs like we saw last night.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-110); Total: 9

Sean Newcomb and Jerad Eickhoff is a pitching matchup that most people would bypass, but it’s one of my favorite ones on the board today. Newcomb is a very interesting pitcher. He’s struck out 44 in his first 43 MLB innings, but he has a 4.81 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.40 xFIP. Here’s the thing. Newcomb’s BABIP is high at .319, but not that high. His 12.8 percent HR/FB% is around average. His 71.7 percent LOB% is just a tad below average. By a lot of metrics, he should have an ERA better than 4.81, hence the lower FIP and xFIP. His walk rate is concerning, with 22 BB in 43 innings. Control has never been his strong suit, though, but he has been effective throughout the minors because he’s hard to square up.

Newcomb looked really good in his first four starts and then had trouble adjusting in his next four, though one came right out of the All-Star Break. He’s faced the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, and Astros in his last four outings. The Phillies are not on the level of any of those offenses. Not even close. There may be a bit of value in Newcomb today, especially as an unfamiliar lefty facing a lineup for the first time. Those other lineups all hit lefties well. The Phillies don’t.

Jerad Eickhoff was a swing and miss for me this season. It’s frustrating because Eickhoff’s numbers are nowhere near as bad as his 4.71 ERA. He has a 10.9 percent HR/FB%, so he’s kept the ball in the park better than most. He has a .320 BABIP, which is on the high side, especially when paired with his high walk rate. His strikeout rate is up this season, though. His 70.9 percent LOB% is a tad low. Eickhoff’s times through the order penalty has been much worse than most MLBers, though. First time through, opposing hitters are batting .209/.283/.350 with a .277 wOBA. Second time through, the numbers go up to .277/.355/.430. Third time through, they go to .330/.385/.557. His strikeout rate progressively goes down from 24.8 to 20.9 to 15.6 percent. His BABIP skyrockets.

I’m not entirely sure what the issue is here. Breaking ball command would be my guess. Eickhoff had a good slider and an above average curveball last season. This season, the slider pitch value has dropped by nearly six runs. The curveball is still good, but, with average fastball command, Eickhoff has made his margin for error pretty small. Eickhoff has increased the usage of his curveball and slightly decreased the usage of his slider to try and counterbalance the two pitches. He’s also abandoned his changeup, which has basically left him as a 2.5-pitch pitcher.

Because of this, I’ll have to look at the Braves today. Eickhoff needs to overhaul some things in the offseason. I think Newcomb can be effectively wild enough to throw together a solid start. The Braves also have a better bullpen than the Phillies, mostly because Philadelphia’s is bordering on 2016 Cincinnati Reds territory. That means value on the visitors as far as I’m concerned.

Kansas City at Boston (-140); Total: 9

I’m not going to scream East Coast Bias, but I don’t think many people realize how outstanding Trevor Cahill has been this season. Cahill will make his first start as a member of the Kansas City Royals today. He’ll be opposed by a tough customer in Eduardo Rodriguez.

Cahill posted a 3.69 ERA with a 3.40 FIP and a 3.35 xFIP in 61 innings with the Padres. Keep in mind that Petco Park isn’t the pitcher’s haven that it once was. Cahill has 72 strikeouts in 61 innings of work and also has an exceptional 56.8 percent ground ball rate. He goes from a bad defensive team in San Diego to a good defensive team in Kansas City. It’s a really good fit for him and the Royals seem to have shot some life into the clubhouse by buying for one last hurrah with the current core. I truly believe there are a lot of people out there that don’t realize what Cahill has to offer. He throws low-to-mid-90s with a hammer curve and a very good changeup. It’s a good arsenal.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 3.89 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.22 xFIP on the year in 71.2 innings of work. He’s struck out well over a batter per inning, but has given up a few home runs with his fly ball style. The Royals have embraced the launch angle craze, as former worm-burner Eric Hosmer is now hitting the ball in the air. Mike Moustakas has been. It would seem that the Royals’ new offensive philosophy plays well against a guy like Rodriguez.

As you know, Rodriguez is a guy that I really like. The concern for me here is that he probably won’t get a whole lot of run support. Per Joe Sheehan on Twitter, the Red Sox have a .344 SLG this month and they haven’t had a July with a SLG under .350 since 1925. So, this is an offense that is not producing. I talked about it earlier this year that the Red Sox were one of the league’s biggest laggards in the HR/FB% explosion. It seems to be having a tangible impact at this point.

Until the Royals lose, I can’t bet against them. They’re running way too hot right now. I think this is a low-scoring affair and they’ve pulled out a lot of those recently. I think the under and the Royals is the way to approach this one, with a chance to live bet back on Boston and lock in plus money.

Arizona (-125) at St. Louis; Total: 8

I forgot what a low total looks like. The Diamondbacks and Cardinals will play with one as Zack Greinke and Mike Leake square off. Greinke is having an outstanding season. Greinke has a 2.92 ERA with a 3.30 FIP and a 3.25 xFIP. He’s already surpassed last season’s fWAR by a full win in 29 fewer innings. His resurgence is a big reason why the Diamondbacks are in the position that they are in. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and is back to having an elite walk rate.

Mike Leake goes on regular rest here today, which is something that doesn’t sound troubling, but it is. Leake acknowledged that he’s had a difficult time maintaining his strength and bouncing back between starts. You wouldn’t know it from his 3.20 ERA with a 3.87 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP, but you have to wonder how he fares as the workload of the season continues to mount. Leake has done an excellent job of inducing weak contact this season to carry that 3.20 ERA because his peripherals aren’t very exciting. His strikeout rate is low and his walk rate is up from last season. He has a 56.1 percent GB%, though, and a 73.3 percent LOB%. If you don’t think sequencing matters, consider the fact that Leake had a lower FIP and xFIP last season with a 4.69 ERA than he does this season with a 3.20 ERA.

In those respects, I have some worries about Leake. If I had to play this game, I’d go Arizona, even with their recent struggles with RISP. I don’t have to, so maybe I won’t, but I’ll watch to see where this line goes.

Pittsburgh (-125) at San Diego; Total: 8

Doesn’t it feel like Pittsburgh had its push and now they’re just going to limp to a .500 record at the end of the season? Yesterday’s loss to the Padres was not a good one. Today, they’ll send Ivan Nova out against Dinelson Lamet, who has a ton of swing and miss, but a complete lack of command. He’s actually a really tough pitcher to handicap for a lot of different reasons, but those are the primary two.

You probably haven’t been paying too much attention, but Ivan Nova suddenly has a 3.62 ERA with a 4.24 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP. He’s had a lot less BABIP luck and his LOB% has been dropping over the last little while. One thing that you have to do with each Pirates starter is apply the proper context to their numbers. PNC Park is an excellent pitcher’s park. Nova has allowed a .257/.288/.370 slash at home and a .272/.305/.481 slash on the road. Fourteen of the 18 home runs he has allowed have come on the road. He’s given up 13 HR in his last 54.2 innings of work. Aside from a dominant April, Nova hasn’t been good. Since May 4, Nova has a 4.42 ERA with a 4.78 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP. His prices haven’t been adjusted all that much either.

Dinelson Lamet has a 5.92 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. When he makes a mistake, it goes a long way. Lamet has a 17.5 percent HR/FB%, despite being a fly ball pitcher. He also has 68 strikeouts in 51.2 innings of work. Lamet has allowed 13 of his 20 walks in three of his 13 starts, so maybe the control issues are a little bit overblown. Still, I’m buying his upside against a Pirates offense that has now gone in the tank.

Give me the Padres tonight. Nova is not the pitcher he was in April and his road splits are not good. It’s a small sample size alert, obviously, but still an important element of handicapping this game. Lamet allowed eight of his 11 HR over his first five starts. He’s allowed just three over his last five starts, so he may be getting a better feel for pitching in the big leagues.