MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Washington and San Diego continue their three-game set at Nationals Park in what has all the markings of a one sided affair. Digging into our trusted baseball betting database gives a strong hint in that direction. Washington handing the ball to Jordan Zimmermann certainly favours Nationals as the club has won each of his last six starts. Zimmermann's success at home adds fuel, the hurler is 9-0 in front of the home crowd with Nationals a perfect 10-0 over his ten starts. Taking a line from the famous infomercials, 'But Wait There's More' - Zimmermann off a sub-par performance (4 runs) sets up nicely as Nats usually come out swinging in the hurlers next start posting a 6-1 record last 7 occurrences outscoring opponents by 2.6 runs/game. Besides, Friars not exactly instilling confidence during this road swing losing 7-of 8 by an average 2.5 runs/game have been terrible bets as road underdogs at 15-25 and enter 3-7 as a road dog after losing game-one of a series. With Padre starter Marquis hitting a rough spot losing his last two starts giving up 10 runs over 10 2/3 innings it's easy to side with Washington. Price rather high at -$2.15 to -$2.40 making the run line -1.5, -$1.10 the smart MLB PLAY.
Mets at Brewers: Preview & Pick
Sportspic.com
When looking at game two of tonight’s Milwaukee Brewers-New York Mets weekend series from a baseball handicapping perspective, a bettor can see flashing signs that indicate plenty of runs ahead.
According to the betting odds at Bovada, the Over is listed at 8, with Milwaukee a -130 favorite, but both hurlers have shown a knack for keeping the scoreboard operator on his or her toes.
Milwaukee will start righthander Yovani Gallardo, who has a 6-8 record with a 4.78 ERA. He’s looking for an improved effort after allowing eight runs in just three innings against Washington last Monday. His last two home starts haven’t been great either with an 0-2 mark and ERA of 7.20.
Gallardo and taking the Over when he starts at home has been a lucrative trend since the start of the 2012 season, with 21 of 27 games cashing. In addition, when the focus is narrowed to just home night games, the Over has virtually been automatic with a 11-1-1 record.
New York will offer a righthander of its own in former Brewer Shaun Marcum, who has had a year to forget with a 1-9 record and ERA of 5.03. His status in this game was in question after he underwent an MRI on his upper back because of tingling in his fingers, a malady that forced him to miss almost a month at the start of the season.
Marcum’s two seasons in Brewtown saw him, for the most part, make Over bettors happy in his 27 home starts. In those contests, the Over won 16 times, lost nine times and pushed on two other occasions.
When these two teams meet in Milwaukee, an Over is a pretty reliable end result. Since 2004, the two teams have faced each other 27 times at Miller Park. The Over has been a baseball handicapping winner 20 times, and when the game has taken place at night, the Over has a 15-4 mark.
In general, Brewers’ fans tend to see more than their share of runners crossing the plate for home games, since in 2013, the Over has been the right MLB pick in 22 of the 33 games.
More recently, the team has gone above the number in four of Gallardo’s last five starts after it had lost in his previous outing.
With the evidence mounting in favor of the Over, the only correct MLB pick to make is
Play Milwaukee and New York Mets Over 8
Saturday's MLB Betting Notes and Tips
Covers.com
National
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-188, 8)
Hot pitcher: Marlins starter Nathan Eovaldi has gotten progressively better in each start since returning from the 60-day disabled list. The 23-year-old scattered four hits over six scoreless frames in a no-decision versus San Diego on June 29.
Cold pitcher: Cards closer Edward Mujica blew his first save of the season versus the Los Angeles Angels Thursday. He gave up two runs on four hits in 2/3 of an inning.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 6-1-1 in Marlins' last eight vs. National League Central foes.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (-199, 8)
Hot pitcher: Nats starter Jordan Zimmerman leads the National League in wins and is sixth in ERA. He has won his last three starts.
Cold pitcher: Padres starter Jason Marquis has absorbed the loss in each of his last two starts and has not helped himself by issuing 12 walks in 10 2/3 innings over that span.
Weather: Temperatures in the high-90s and partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out to center field at 12 mph.
Key betting stat: Padres have dropped seven straight games.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (+115, OFF)
Hot pitcher: Cubs starter Edwin Jackson tossed seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball in his last start versus Pittsburgh on June 9.
Cold pitcher: Pirates hurler Charlie Morton has made six career starts against the Cubs, logging a 2-3 record with a 5.76 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 9 mph.
Key betting stat: Cubs are 1-6 in Jackson's last seven home starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-160, 7)
Hot pitcher: Giants starter Madison Bumgarner has a 1.20 ERA in two starts versus the Dodgers this season.
Cold pitchers: With a 4.39 ERA heading into action Saturday, the Dodgers bullpen sports the third-worst ERA in the bigs.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 12 mph.
Key betting stat: Dodgers are 0-7 in their last seven road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (OFF)
Hot pitcher: Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick has won seven of eight decisions against Atlanta in his career.
Cold pitcher: Braves starter Tim Hudson, who hasn't won since May 5, yielded four runs on five hits in 5 2/3 innings to take a no-decision versus Arizona in his last trip to the mound.
Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low-90s. Wind will blow out to center field at eight mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 8-1-1 in Kendrick's last 10 home starts.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-137, 8)
Hot pitcher: Mets starter Shaun Marcum has posted back-to-back quality starts after going 11 straight appearances without a win.
Cold pitcher: Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) on 17 hits in seven innings over his last two starts, both losses.
Weather: Game should be played outdoors. Temperatures in the low-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow in from right field at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Mets are 1-9 in their last 10 Saturday games.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-159, 9)
Hot pitcher: Diamondbacks starter Wade Miley is 4-0 in seven games (six starts) with a 2.79 ERA against the Rockies
Cold pitcher: Rockies starter Drew Pomeranz yielded four runs and seven hits - including two home runs - in 4 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss versus the Giants in his previous outing.
Weather: Could be played indoors due to excessive heat.
Key betting stat: Over is 5-1 in Miley's last six starts overall.
American
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-111, 9)
Hot pitcher: Orioles starter Chris Tillman has allowed more than three runs just once in his last eight outings and has already surpassed last year's career-best win total of nine.
Cold pitcher: Yanks starter Andy Pettitte has surrendered at least four runs in as many consecutive starts and five of six since spending a 2 1/2-week stint on the disabled list with an upper-back injury.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center field at 11 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 7-0-1 in Orioles' last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-190, 9)
Hot pitcher: Jays knuckler R.A. Dickey is rounding into form after a dreadful start to the season, and looks to build off back-to-back sensational outings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers.
Cold pitcher: Twins starter Mike Pelfrey is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA in six road outings this season.
Weather: Dome should be open. Temperatures in the mid-80s and cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.
Key betting stat: Blue Jays are 7-0 in their last seven games as a home favorite.
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (-113, 8)
Hot pitcher: A's starter Jarrod Parker has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 consecutive outings to shave more than three runs off his ERA.
Cold pitcher: Royals reliever J.C. Gutierrez allowed three runs versus Oakland last night and has surrendered five runs (three earned) in his last 1 2/3 innings of work.
Weather: Temperatures in the high-80s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 16 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (+131, 9)
Hot pitcher: Tigers reliever Joaquin Benoit has given up just two earned runs in his previous 13 1/3 innings of work, dating back to May 28.
Cold pitcher: Indians starter Carlos Carrasco has surrendered at least six runs in three of his first five outings, including a 5 2/3-inning effort against the Chicago White Sox on June 28 in which he escaped with a no-decision despite yielding six runs and 10 hits.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to center field at 9 mph.
Key betting stat: Tigers are 0-5 in Sanchez's last five road starts.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-305, 8.5)
Hot pitcher: Rangers starter Yu Darvish is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA over his three career outings against the Astros.
Cold pitcher: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start when he gave up five runs and eight hits in 4 2/3 innings.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-90s and sunny skies. Winds will blow in from left field at 11 mph.
Key betting stat: Rangers are 1-4 in Darvish's last five starts.
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 7)
Hot pitcher: White Sox starter Chris Sale has 114 strikeouts and 24 walks over 106 1/3 innings, and opponents are only batting .202 against him.
Cold pitcher: Sox closer Addison Reed had an awful June in which he gave up 11 earned runs in 13 innings en route to three blown saves.
Weather: Dome.
Key betting stat: White Sox are 0-6 in their last six road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (OFF)
Hot pitcher: Sox starter Ryan Dempster has surrendered three or fewer runs in his last seven starts.
Cold pitcher: Halos starter Jerome Williams recorded only five outs and threw 55 pitches in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday, leaving him fresh enough to start again on two days’ rest.
Weather: Temperatures in the low-70s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 6-0 in Red Sox's last six overall.
Interleague
Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds (-218, 8.5)
Hot pitcher: Reds starter Mat Latos has fanned 31 in 19 1/3 innings during his last three outings.
Cold pitcher: Mariners starter Jeremy Bonderman struggled against the Chicago Cubs in his last outing and gave up six runs (four earned) and six hits in 3 1/3 innings.
Weather: There is a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low-80s and wind will blow from right to left at 12 mph.
Key betting stat: The Reds are 17-5 in Latos' last 22 starts as a home favorite.
MLB Odds and Picks -- Yu knows 'Stros
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
Thanks to the Rangers' current six-game win streak against the Astros and Yu Darvish's dominance in two starts against them, Texas is a gigantic -300 favorite today. Add to the equation that Houston has regained sole possession of the worst record in baseball at 31-56 and has struck out a Major League leading 808 times. Meanwhile, Darvish leads baseball with 151 Ks.
When calculating the ratings for today's game that helped set the odds, it was like the perfect storm, and the number kept getting higher and higher until finally reaching tilt in the -310 range that is rarely seen. This number is equivalent to when a team in a September pennant race throws their ace on the mound at home and is matched up against a September call-up who isn't even one of the organization's prized prospects and making his MLB debut.
The thought process for many bettors when seeing a number this high is trying to find any sound reasoning to take the underdog money and sell themselves into actually making a wager through the bet window at a sports book. Here's some questions that they ask themselves:
How has Darvish been pitching lately?
Before pitching 6.2 scoreless innings against Cincinnati on Sunday in a 3-2 win, Darvish had been 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA in his seven starts prior. The Rangers have gone 2-6 in his last eight starts. Is fatigue becoming a factor as the weather has been heating up?
How has Darvish pitched against the Astros this season?
On April 2, Darvish came within one out of a no-hitter where he struck out 14 in a 7-0 win. His next start against them was May 11, where he lasted seven innings and allowed two runs in an 8-7 win.
How have the Astros hit Darvish this season?
Obviously, when you almost get no-hit, the average is going to be super low, and it doesn't get much lower than .078. But in his last start against Houston, Matt Dominguez became the only player ever to hit two home runs off Darvish in a game. After seeing him twice, there might be reason to believe the Astros can make some adjustments, particularly not biting on what appear to be attractive pitches that end up out of the strike zone.
Can Dallas Keuchel give the Rangers' bats some trouble?
In two career starts against Texas, Keuchel is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA. He hasn't made it to the fifth inning in his last two starts, and the Astros have lost four of his last five turns, but outside of getting shelled during Monday's start against the Rays for five runs, he had been on a pretty good run. He went six straight starts allowing three runs or fewer, and in five of those allowed two runs or fewer. Nelson Cruz is the only Texas hitter to homer off him, and Keuchel has pitched much better on the road with 3.03 ERA compared to 5.62 ERA at home.
Final analysis:
After winning the first game of the series to kick off the baseball season, the Astros have been steamrolled by Texas, losing six straight with only one of those games -- Darvish's last outing against them -- being less than a two-run margin. The Astros are playing to learn the game under Bo Porter, who is doing his best job at learning to manage at the Major League level with what he's got.
The Rangers, on the other hand, are in the middle of a division race with Oakland, and when they lost three of four prior to winning their last two, they opened the door for the red-hot A's to take over first-place by a half-game. They've matched wins and losses over their last three games ,and Texas will know the result of the Oakland-Kansas City game when taking the field tonight. This is a game they can't afford to lose.
While Darvish has limited opponents to an AL-best .190 average this season, there does seem to be something there that shows he's not the same pitcher he was in April when the Rangers and Astros met the first time this season. A bettor couldn't be faulted for taking a stab at +270 on the Astros to win just one game.
Saturday selections:
Astros (Keuchel) +270 at Rangers
Pirates (Morton) -125 at Cubs
Royals (Santana) -110 vs. A's
Season to date record: 158-157-2 (+407)