MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, July 8th, 2017

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Milwaukee (48-40) at New York Yankees (44-39)

Scheduled Rotation: Guerra (1-3) vs. Montgomery (6-4), Suter (1-1) vs. Severino (5-4), Nelson (7-4) vs. Tanaka (7-7)
Series Price: Yankees -250, Brewers +210

The Yankees are 25-15 at home, but they're playing extremely sluggish lately and have lost four of their last five. They're a large -250 favorite at Station Casinos to win the series, but these new-look Brewers are no joke. I think we've all been saying for the past two months that they're just warming up the first-place slot for the Cubs, but after a while you have to give the club credit for battling and winning games. They've won seven of their last eight, including a major statement win Thursday at Wrigley Field. They buried the Cubs 11-2 in a make-up game. I don't like their pitching, but they keep making it happen and their hot. Yankees are not. I'm betting Milwaukee to take two of three here and win the series.

Atlanta (41-43) at Washington (50-35)

Scheduled Rotation: Dickey (6-5) vs. Scherzer (10-5), Teheran (6-6) vs. Strasburg (9-2), Newcomb (1-3) vs. Ross (5-3)
Series Price: Nationals -310, Braves +255 (started Thursday)

Well, here you go Atlanta. It's a chance to make up some ground in the National League East where you sit 8.5 games back. But damn, this offense of the Nats leads the league in almost every category and feature not only the No. 1 hitter with Daniel Murphy (.341), but they also have No. 2 with Ryan Zimmerman (.330) and No. 4 with Bryce Harper (.324). There's no easy outs with this lineup and someone new, beyond those All-Stars, seem to step up nightly. The Braves have been beaten like a drum in this series losing 36 times in the last 51 meetings. But the quality play of the Braves lately has helped them be a good 'under' bet. They've gone 12-4-1 to the 'under' in their last 17. The Nats have gone 8-3 to the 'under' in their last 11. That might be the approach to this series over the weekend.

Detroit (38-46) at Cleveland (45-39)

Scheduled Rotation: Zimmermann (5-6) vs. Carrasco (9-3), Verlander (5-5) vs. Clevinger (4-3), Fulmer (8-6) vs. Kluber (7-3)
Series Price: Indians -300, Tigers +240

Cleveland is 19-23 at home this season and it's the starters that have been letting the club down. Those were the guys that made a World Series appearance happen last season. Fortunately, they still have the best bullpen in baseball and it's part of the reason why they are the best 'under' team in baseball. They don't allow garbage runs after the starters leave the game. On the other side, the Tigers are packing it in and reports of them shopping ace Jason Verlander proves that cause. They look like a team that doesn't care anymore. They've only won once in their last 10 games as an underdog. Carlos Carrasco starts Friday and the Indians have won eight of his last nine starts against Detroit. The Indians are the best 'under' team, but 27 of the last 33 meetings with the Tigers in Cleveland have gone 'over' the number.

White Sox (37-47) at Colorado (50-38)

Scheduled Rotation: Holland (5-8 ) vs. Marquez (5-4), Quintana (4-8 ) vs. Hoffman (5-1), Rodon (1-1) vs. Freeland (8-7)
Series Price: Rockies -250, White Sox +210

The White Sox are hot and Colorado is falling into the abyss. The Rockies have become a great 'under' team, especially lately as they've stayed 'under' in their last six games. Good pitching, light hitting, and the altitude hasn't seemed to matter much. The Sox, however, have been mashing the ball and have gone 'over' in their last six. The best bet of the weekend is probably betting the 'under' on Sunday with Denver native Kyle Freeland pitching. I've never seen a Rockies pitcher take to Coors Field elements like him and I think it's just because he's pitched in Denver his entire life. He's gone 14-2-1 to the 'under' in his 17 starts so far which makes him the best 'under' pitcher in baseball.

Kansas City (44-40) at LA Dodgers (58-29)

Scheduled Rotation: Hammel (4-7) vs. Maeda (6-4), Kennedy (3-6) vs. McCarthy (6-3), Duffy (5-4) vs. Kershaw (13-2)
Series Price: Dodgers -330, Royals +270

Who is hotter here? The Dodgers just come off recent sweeps of division foes in Colorado and Arizona and have won six of their last seven. Kansas City has been bashing the ball and find themselves only one game out of first-place in the American League Central after being 10 games behind last month. They've won four straight coming in and six of their seven as well. That revived Kansas City offense has helped them go 13-3 to the 'over' in their last 16 road games. Sunday's game can be almost automatically give to the Dodgers because Kershaw is starting -- they've won 16 of his 18 starts. But I think Saturday offers great value with Ian Kennedy who is throwing his best lately for the Royals. I think the series comes down to Friday's game and being able to get +260 on the Royals makes it a worthwhile proposition.

I have to do something early in the morning so will be a little late posting info.

MLB Knowledge

National League

Pirates @ Cubs
Nova is 1-2, 5.00 in his last three starts; his last five starts stayed under. Pirates are 3-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-6-1

Arrieta is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs won his last four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2

Pirates won three of their last four games; under is 6-0-1 in their last seven. Cubs are 5-7 in last 12 home games; three of last four Chicago games went over total.

Padres @ Phillies
Chacin is 3-2, 2.25 in his last five starts, last four of which stayed under. Padres are 3-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-10-2

Nola is 3-0, 1.27 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his home starts. Phillies are 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-4

San Diego won four of its last five games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Philly lost its last four games; under is 5-0-1 in their last six home games. Phillies have 22 losses by one run this season.

Mets @ Cardinals
Wheeler is 0-3, 8.71 in his last five starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Mets are 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1

Wainwright is 3-2, 9.42 in his last six starts (over 4-2); Cardinals are 6-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-5-3

Mets lost three of last four games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. St Louis lost three of last four games; over is 18-6-1 in their last 25 games.

Braves @ Nationals
Teheran is 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Atlanta is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2

Strasburg is 2-0, 3.70 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Washington is 7-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7-1

Braves are 9-4 in last 13 road games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Washington won five of last seven home games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

Reds @ Diamondbacks
Castillo is 0-1, 4.41 in his first three MLB starts (under 2-1). Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Walker is 3-0, 3.26 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four home starts. Arizona is 5-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2

Cincinnati is 6-5 in its last 11 games; under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. Arizona lost three of its last four games; under is 6-3-3 in their last 12.

Marlins @ Giants
O’Grady is making his MLB debut; he was 3-5, 3.29 in 12 AAA games (9 starts) this season.

Samardzija is 2-0, 3.26 in his last three starts; under is 11-5 in his last 16 starts. Giants are 3-5 in his home starts-; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-10-5

Marlins won three of last four games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games. Giants won seven of last ten games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games.

American League

Astros @ Blue Jays
Fiers is 4-2, 2.81 in his last eight starts; over is 4-3-1 in his road outings. Astros are 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Stroman is 1-3, 4.56 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Toronto is 5-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7-1

Houston is 10-2 in its last 11 road games; over is 12-2 in their last 13 games. Toronto won three of its last four games; over is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Tigers @ Indians
Verlander is 1-1, 6.00 in his last six starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Detroit lost his last five road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-3

Clevinger is 2-1, 3.60 in his last five starts; under is 7-3 in his lstarts. Cleveland is 0-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2

Detroit is 6-5 in its last 11 games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Cleveland is 5-6 in its last 11 home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Red Sox @ Rays
Porcello is 1-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight. Boston is 4-4 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-13-1

Cobb is 2-1, 3.44 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Rays are 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2

Boston won seven of its last nine games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Rays are 9-5 in last 14 home games; over is 12-1 in their last 13 home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Chavez is 0-3, 6.12 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Angels are 4-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2

Ross is 1-1, 6.41 in four starts this year (under 3-1). Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Angels lost four of last five games, under is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games. Texas lost six of last nine games; over is 16-3-2 in their last 21 home games.

Orioles @ Twins
Miley is 0-3, 11.57 in his last three starts (under 3-0). Orioles are 0-4 in his last four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-9-1

Mejia is 3-0, 1.53 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Minnesota is 3-4 in his home starts- 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-3

Baltimore lost seven of last eight games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Minnesota won five of last seven games; under is 8-5 in their last 13 home games.

A’s @ Mariners
Smith is making his first MLB start after 63 relief stints; he was 4-3, 3.16 in 12 AAA starts this year, is making his 2017 debut in the majors.

Moore is 1-1, 3.60 in his first two MLB starts (over 1-1). Seattle’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Oakland won three of its last four games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 road games. Seattle lost eight of its last 11 games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 home games.

Interleague

Milwaukee @ New York
Suter is 1-1, 3.38 in two starts this year (under 2-0). Brewers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Severino is 0-2, 6.29 in his last four starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. New York is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2

Milwaukee won seven of last eight games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 games. New York lost five of last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

White Sox @ Rockies
Quintana is 2-0, 2.59 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Chicago is 5-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1

Hoffman is 2-1, 6.86 in four home starts (3-0, 1.67 on road). Over is 5-3 in his starts. Colorado is 3-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2

White Sox lost six of last eight road games; over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. Colorado is 4-12 in its last 16 games; under is 8-1-1 in last ten Colorado games.

Royals @ Dodgers
Kennedy is 3-0, 2.96 in his last four starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Royals are 5-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-9-2

McCarthy is 1-0, 3.77 in his last three starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Dodgers are 7-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1

Kansas City won six of last eight games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 road games. Los Angeles is 16-1 in last 17 home games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Pitt-Chi: Nova 9-8; Arrieta 9-8
SD-Phil: Chacin 8-9; Nola 6-6
Atl-Wsh: Teheran 8-9; Strasburg 13-4
NY-StL: Wheeler 6-8; Wainwright 10-7
Cin-Az: Castillo 1-2; Walker 10-3
Mia-SF: O’Grady 0-0; Samardzija 7-10

American League
Hst-Tor: Fiers 6-4; Stroman 10-7
Det-Clev: Verlander 8-9; Clevinger 5-5
Bos-TB: Porcello 8-10; Cobb 8-9
LA-Tex: Chavez 8-9; Ross 2-2
Balt-Min: Miley 8-9; Mejia 6-6
A’s-Sea: Smith 0-0; Moore 1-1

Interleague
Mil-NY; Suter 1-1; Severino 7-9
Chi-Colo: Quintana 9-8; Hoffman 6-2
KC-LA: Kennedy 7-8; McCarthy 9-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Pitt-Chi: Nova 5-17; Arrieta 6-17
SD-Phil: Chacin 7-17; Nola 3-12
Atl-Wsh: Teheran 6-17; Strasburg 3-17
NY-StL: Wheeler 6-14; Wainwright 4-17
Cin-Az: Castillo 1-3; Walker 4-13
Mia-SF: O’Grady 0-0; Samardzija 2-10-5

American League
Hst-Tor: Fiers 5-3-2; Stroman 9-7-1
Det-Clev: Verlander 6-17; Clevinger 5-3-2
Bos-TB: Porcello 7-18; Cobb 3-17
LA-Tex: Chavez 6-9-2; Ross 2-1-1
Balt-Min: Miley 7-17; Mejia 6-3-3
A’s-Sea: Smith 0-0; Moore 1-1

Interleague
Mil-NY; Suter 1-1; Severino 9-5-2
Chi-Colo: Quintana 6-10-1; Hoffman 6-2
KC-LA: Kennedy 3-15; McCarthy 2-13

Umpires

National League
Pitt-Chi: Over is 8-4-1 in last 13 Morales games.
SD-Phil: Five of last six Winters games stayed under.
Atl-Wsh: Last six Baker games went over the total.
NY-StL: Under is 6-3 in last nine Diaz games.
Cin-Az: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Emmel games.
Mia-SF: Home team is 9-2 in last 11 Ripperger games.

American League
Hst-Tor: Under is 9-5 in Nauert games this season.
Det-Clev: Last three Hudson games stayed under total.
Bos-TB: Under is 10-4 in last 14 Kulpa games.
LA-Tex: Over is 9-4-1 in last 14 Porter games.
Balt-Min: Over is 2-0 in Barber games this season.
A’s-Sea: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Bucknor games.

Interleague
Mil-NY: Over is 9-2 in last eleven Estabrook games.
Chi-Colo: Underdogs are 6-5 in last 11 Holbrook games.
KC-LA: Favorites won five of last six Miller games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 44-32 AL, favorites -$1,193
AL @ NL– 46-43 NL, favorites -$352
Total: 88-77 AL, favorites -$1,545

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 44-35-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-36-2
Total: Over 92-71-4

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Brewers (5-0 past five games, 8-1 past nine overall)

The first-place Brewers have rattled off five wins in a row to build their lead in the National League Central to 4 1/2 games over the defending world champion Cubs. The Brewers might have had just one All-Star named to Tuesday's midsummer classic, but they have a solid plus-45 run differential and have been playing well as a team. While a three-game sweep of the struggling Orioles earlier this week wasn't something to jump up and down about, an 11-2 thumping of the Cubs at Wrigley Field in a make-up game Thursday and a 9-4 win at Yankee Stadium in the interleague series opener Friday is certain to turn some heads. Milwaukee heads into Saturday's matinee with a 4-1 record against right-handed starters over their past five outings, while gling 5-2 in their past seven interleague road affairs.

Coldest team: Orioles (0-5 past five games, 4-10 past 14 overall)

The Orioles are 0-for-5 on their current road trip, including the first two in their weekend set at Target Field in Minnesota. Baltimore has amassed just 13 runs while allowing 33 during the five-game slid. The O's have a dismal minus-88 run differential, worst in the American League and fourth-worst in the majors behind the Giants (minus-96), Phillies (minus-97) and Padres (minus-123). The O's turn to Wade Miley to stop the bleeding, but they're just 2-5 in his past seven outings against winning teams, 0-4 in his past four road outings and they have won just six times over the past 29 road games overall.

Hottest pitcher: Taijuan Walker, Diamondbacks (6-3, 3.30 ERA)

Walker toes the slab Saturday night against the struggling Reds. He has a solid 3.30 ERA overall this season, much better than his 4.03 career ERA, although his WHIP is slightly higher than his career 1.23. Walker's splits are interesting this season, as he has been much better on the road (2.65 ERA) than at home (3.92 ERA). He is also better in day starts (1.99 ERA), although his 1-2 record pales in comparison to his 5-1 record in evening outings. Walker has never faced the Reds, while his counterpart Luis Castillo has no history against the Diamondbacks. In fact, Castillo is making just his fourth major league start. Walker is 3-0 over his past five starts while yielding one or fewer earned runs in three of the outings.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (4-10, 5.01 ERA)

The defending American League Cy Young Award winner has looked anything like a pitcher worthy of accolades this season. He was the first player to double-digit losses, since joined by Ricky Nolasco (Angels) and Tyler Chatwood (Rockies). Porcello has been hit hard this season to the tune of a .303 opponent average while posting a 1.48 WHIP and 5.01 ERA across 111 1/3 innings over 18 starts. The Red Sox are an awful 0-7 across Porcello's past seven outings against divisional foes. The good news for Porcello is that the Rays are just 1-5 over Alex Cobb's past six home outings against the Red Sox, while Boston is an impressive 4-1 in Porcello's past five outings at 'The Trop'.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (18-6-2 past 26 overall)

The 'under' has hit frequently for the Bucs, especially when Ivan Nova is on the hill. The under is a perfect 5-0 over his past five outings and 4-0 in his past four against NL Central foes. The under is 18-6-2 in the past 26 games overall, too, as well as 10-4-1 in their past 15 against divisional opponents. The under is also 10-1 in Pittsburgh's past 11 when coming off a loss. The Cubbies might be able to help out the under, too. The under has connected in 15 of the past 20 overall for the champs, 11-5 in their past 16 at Wrigley Field against right-handed starters and 25-9 in their past 34 games overall vs. RHP. The under is also 12-1 in Chicago's past 13 overall against teams with a losing record. In this series, however, the over is 4-1 in Jake Arrieta's past five starts against the Bucs.

Biggest OVER run: Rays (18-8-1 past 27 overall)

The Rays have been a hard team to figure this season, but the over has been a frequent happening in St. Pete this season. The over is an impressive 12-1 over their past 13 games at Tropicana Field, while going 14-2 in their past 16 overall on an astroturf surface. The over is also 18-8-1 in their past 27 games overall, 17-7 in Alex Cobb's past 24 starts and 11-1 in his past 12 outings against teams with a winning overall mark. Porcello might cooperate, too, as the over is 4-0 in his past four tries against the Rays. The over is also 6-1 in Cobb's past seven assignments against the Red Sox, so plenty of fireworks might be in the offing.

Matchup to watch: Mariners vs. Athletics

The Mariners and Athletics do battle in the Pacific Northwest, and each team is limping to the All-Star break and in need of regrouping. The A's have won just three times over the past 10 games while going 11-26 in their past 37 on the road. They have also won just 21 of their past 70 against NL West foes. The M's snapped a four-game skid on Friday, but they're just 2-7 in their past nine vs. RHP while posting a 1-8 mark in their past nine at Safeco Field. Seattle is also 0-6 in their past six at home against RHP. While a winner might be difficult to pick, the 'over' could be the play with relative unknowns Chris Smith and Andrew Moore squaring off. The over is 5-1 in the past six in this series, and 4-1 in the past five at Safeco.

Betcha didn’t know: The Marlins purchased the contract of Chris O'Grady from Triple-A New Orleans to take the roster spot of the departed Jeff Locke. He can't be much worse than the veteran southpaw, who was designated for assignment on Tuesday. O'Grady's 3-5 record at NOLA isn't terribly impressive, but he was able to post a 3.29 ERA across nine starts and three relief appearances.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-210) vs. Brewers

Biggest public underdog: Red Sox (+110) at Rays

Biggest line move: Astros (+130 to +105) at Blue Jays

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks -155

The Diamondbacks and the Reds are playing at Chase Field tonight in a matchup between Taijuan Walker and Luis Castillo. The Walker and Segura trade has proven to be a pretty good one for both sides for teams with different priorities. The Mariners improved their infield defense, while the Diamondbacks have built a very strong rotation with Walker being a strong number two starter.

Luis Castillo is one of the many starters that the Red have tried out this season, but unlike most of them, Castillo is one who the Reds actually hope will be a part of their rotation for a long period of time. He’s only pitched 16 major league innings, so we really can’t tell much about his MLB performance yet, but we do have some information about him through projections and minor league stats. One thing that makes me nervous about Castillo right now is that he skipped AAA, and came straight to the majors after AA. But it seems like it could still make some sense, because he’s pretty reliant on a great fastball. His fastball has great velocity that can get into the high 90s, and may even top out at 100. The problem is that he doesn’t have much of a secondary pitch yet, which can hurt especially in a park like Chase field. His slider has a great deal of potential, but the changeup doesn’t seem to add much deception. I’m not a scout, so I’m not sure how good Castillo is going to end up, but I have some concerns with his performance right now, so in this game I like the Diamondbacks quite a bit.

MLB Underdog of the day: Los Angeles Angels +144

The Angels and Rangers are going to be playing in Arlington tonight with Tyson Ross and Jesse Chavez. Neither starting pitcher is especially good, but I think there is a great deal more uncertainty related to Tyson Ross than there is in Jesse Chavez. I don’t love the odds of either team to make the playoffs, but if they stand a chance, both teams probably need their rotations to improve drastically.

Tyson Ross has had a pretty good career regardless of what happens to him this season. He had three great seasons in his time with the Padres until he had injury problems that left him unsure if he was going to have a career. The Rangers took a one year flier on him this season, but it’s still unclear if it’s going to work out. Ross has only pitched 19 innings, so it’s tough to glean much from most of his stats. Where we can get some clear information is in velocity, which takes only about 6 innings to stabilize, which is incredibly fast compared to almost any other stat. Ross has lost a bit of velocity since his time in San Diego, with an average velocity of 91. In his peak with San Diego, he had an average fastball velocity of 93. In all fairness to Ross, he has begun to rely on his fastball much less, which shows that he is probably aware that it’s going to lose its effectiveness with reduced velocity, but it doesn’t seem like he’s replaced the fastball with anything better. I have some major concerns about Ross improving this season.

Jesse Chavez meanwhile is also not a particularly good pitcher. Chavez has an ERA of 4.97, and an xFIP of 4.87. His biggest problem this season has been that he has lost a lot of his strikeouts. Last season (not that he was great last season either) he had almost a strikeout per inning, this season, he’s striking out 6 batters per 9 innings. So to be clear, I don’t like the Angels in this game as much more than a value play against Tyson Ross. I have some big concerns about him improving this season, and the Angels are pretty heavy underdogs, so I would feel okay taking them.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Cleveland Indians/Detroit Tigers Under 9.5

One of the strange things that has occurred over the last few seasons in the league is how poorly Justin Verlander has been against the Indians. Since 2015, Verlander has had almost no success against Cleveland, including one point where he had a 10 game losing streak against them. But I don’t think that there is any reason to believe that the Indians have “figured out” Verlander. I don’t tend to believe that an entire team has the ability to figure out any pitcher. Can individual hitters have more success against a certain pitcher than others? Probably, but as a team it just seems so unlikely. Ultimately, I think that the line is probably inflated by his past performance against Cleveland which I know can get in people’s mind, so I’m mostly betting on Verlander pitching closer to his mean than he typically has against Cleveland, so I like the under here.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Oakland A’s at Seattle Mariners (-150, 9.5)

"I think you’ve got the wrong guy."

That’s A’s call-up starter Chris Smith after hearing he would get the start for the big club in Seattle Saturday. Doesn’t instill a great deal of confidence, does it?

Smith, who is a self-proclaimed 36-year-old stay-at-home dad, has been with the Triple-A Nashville affiliate and will be the oldest starting pitcher in franchise history when he toes the rubber tonight. The right hander pitched just under 25 innings of relief for the A’s in 2016 (2.92 ERA, 29 Ks) and should he get chased early into this start, he’d hand the ball over to Oakland’s awful bullpen, which ranks dead last the American League with a collective 5.08 ERA.

The Mariners lineup will be licking its chops at the plate. Seattle scored seven runs in Friday’s victory over the Athletics and is hitting .265 BA and averaging more than five runs per game inside Safeco Field – the third-best home field offense in the AL.

Seattle marches youngster Andrew Moore to the mound Saturday, who at 23 years old is just 10 years older than the combined age of Smith’s three daughters (talk about two different worlds). Moore has been solid in his first two starts of the season, allowing six earned runs through 15 total innings pitched.

There is just one warning light blinking with the righty: Moore leans on that four-seam fastball and isn’t looking to paint the corners or force hitters to chase his breaking stuff. He has yet to walk a batter but has already allowed three home runs in his limited efforts, which means he’s putting it over the plate.

Oakland doesn’t do much right on offense, but it can swing a big stick and ranks eighth in the majors in home runs (123). The A’s had scored 21 totals runs in the three games before Thursday’s loss, totaling seven dingers in that span. Anything Moore throws over the plate has a chance to leave the ballpark in a hurry against this lineup.

Pick: Over 9.5

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals (-133, 9.5)

The New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals will tangle in a late afternoon game at Busch Stadium, with the home team looking to even up the series at one game a piece.

Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright will get the ball for the Cardinals. He has struggled this season as it appears father time has caught up the 35-year-old his 5.48 ERA is almost a full run higher than last year, which was the highest of his career. The good news for Cardinals backers is that he can still get the job done at home 6-1 on the season.

The Metropolitans will run Zack Wheeler out to the hill today and that normally means a lot of runs. The Over has cashed in 10 of his 12 starts this season. Narrow the sample size to his last three starts and Wheeler's ERA is 18.41, three overs and if you look simply at Wheeler on the road the over has hit in four of five starts.

It isn’t that Wheeler doesn’t have potential but a rash of injuries over the last two years have crippled his development and the 6th pick in the 2009 draft is struggling to catch up.

In the last five meetings between the Mets and Cardinals, the two teams have hit the over in all five averaging a combined 11.2 runs per game.

Pick: Over 9.5

Yesterday's Picks: 1-0-1

Season To Date: 85-73-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers:

Streaking: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (6-5, 3.73 ERA, $95)

There isn’t a lot to be excited about for Phillies fans in 2017. They were never going to be good and no one is surprised to see them with the worst record in baseball a few days before the All-Star break.

One bright spot so far has been 24-year old Aaron Nola, who has shown not only that he belongs in the big leagues but can be an ace. Over his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA, .94 WHIP, and has gone at least seven innings in each of those starts.

Nola and the Phillies are -147 home chalk against the Padres this afternoon.

Slumping: Wade Miley, Baltimore Orioles (3-7, 5.20, $-137)

When in doubt for a slumping pitcher look no further than the Baltimore Orioles.

It might not be fair to say Wade Miley is in a slump at this point he is what he is, but his last six starts have been god awful. An ERA of 11.69, 2.55 WHIP, and he hasn’t made it past the sixth inning in any of these appearances.

Miley is on the mound today as the Orioles are +124 underdogs today in Minnesota.

Saturday's Top Trends:

Braves are 1-8 in Julio Teheran’s last 9 starts vs. Nationals. +193 @ Washington

Red Sox are 0-7 in Rick Porcello’s last 7 starts vs. American League East. -107 @ Tampa Bay

White Sox are 2-11 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record. +123 @ Colorado

Under is 12-1 in Cubs last 13 vs. a team with a losing record. Pirates/Cubs Total: 8

Weather To Keep An Eye On:

The forecast is calling for a dry day across Major League Baseball today and no games should be delayed or postponed.

There are a few games that will feature decent hitter’s winds. The Yankees will entertain the Brewers with a 14 mile per hour wind blowing out to straight center field and a betting total of 9.5, the Phillies will host the Padres at Citizens Bank Park with a 13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field and a total of 8, and the Giants will welcome the Marlins with a 15-17 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field and an Over/Under set at 8.5.

Ump Of The Day:

Paul Nauert gets the pads today at Rogers Centre where the Blue Jays are hosting the Houston Astros. Nauert has been one of baseball’s top homer umpires this season with the home team winning 11 of his 14 appearances (78.6 percent) behind the plate and when the home team is favoured by between -140 and -101 they are 5-0.

This is of course great news for Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays. The Jays are currently -115 chalk against the best offense in baseball.