MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, June 10th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Rockies @ Cubs
Hoffman is 3-0, 2.33 in three starts this year (over 2-1).
Butler is 3-1, 1.88 in five starts (24 IP) this year (under 3-1-1).
Colorado won its last six games; under is 3-0 in their last three games. Cubs lost their last three games; under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games.
Marlins @ Pirates
Straily is 3-2, 3.34 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Miami is 2-3 in his road starts.
Williams is 2-1, 2.88 in his last five starts (over 3-2-1).
Marlins won 10 of last 13 games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 road games. Pirates are 2-7 in last nine games. Six of their last eight games went over.
Mets @ Braves
Gsellman is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts (over 8-2). Mets are 2-1 in his road starts. Matz is making his ’17 debut; he is 13-8, 3.16 in 28 career MLB starts. He is 0-1, 6.06 in four AAA rehab starts this year.
Newcomb is making his MLB debut; he is 3-3, 2.97 in 11 AAA starts this year. Wisler is making his first ’17 start; he is 15-21, 4.95 in 45 MLB starts, 1-4, 5.01 in seven AAA starts this season.
Mets lost six of last eight games; over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 road games. Atlanta won five of last seven games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Phillies @ Cardinals
Pivetta is 1-3, 5.18 in his first five MLB starts (over 3-1-1).
Martinez is 4-2, 2.66 in his last seven starts; his last four starts stayed under. Cardinals are 5-2 in his home starts.
Phillies are 3-12 in last 15 road games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. St Louis lost seven of its last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five home games.
Brewers @ Diamondbacks
Guerra is 1-0, 2.29 in four starts this season (over 3-1).
Godley is 1-1, 2.39 in six starts this season (over 3-3).
Brewers won seven of last ten road games; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Arizona won nine of its last ten home games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Reds @ Dodgers
Wojciechowski is 0-0, 5.40 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Wood is 5-0, 1.57 in his last five starts; he has a 25-inning scoreless streak, but was also just on DL. LA is 4-0 in his home starts. Over is 4-2-1 in his last seven starts.
Reds won four of their last five games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 games. Dodgers lost three of last five games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
American League
White Sox @ Indians
Holmberg is 0-0, 4.70 in two starts this year (over 1-0-1).
Tomlin is 1-4, 4.36 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Indians are 2-4 in his home starts.
White Sox lost eight of last nine games; over is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Cleveland lost four of last six games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 home games.
Tigers @ Red Sox
Verlander is 1-2, 5.20 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 2-5 in his road outings.
Sale is 6-0, 4.66 in his last seven starts; Boston scored 59 runs in those games- his last three starts went over. Red Sox are 5-1 in his home starts.
Tigers won five of last eight games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Boston won six of last seven home games; last five games at Fenway Park stayed under the total.
A’s @ Rays
Gray is 0-1, 7.71 in his last two starts (over 6-1). Manaea 4-0, 2.16 in his last four starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. A’s are 2-3 in his road starts.
Andriese 3-0, 4.12 in his last four starts, but was just on DL. Over is 4-1 in his last five starts. Rays are 5-2 in his home starts. Ramirez 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts (over 3-2).
A’s lost six of last seven road games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Tampa Bay won five of last six home games; under is 7-2 in Rays’ last nine home games.
Baltimore @ New York
Tillman is 0-3, 8.10 in his last three starts (under 4-2).
Severino is 2-0, 1.37 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. New York is 3-2 in his home starts.
Orioles lost their last seven road games; over is 7-3 in their last ten games. New York won five of last six home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
Angels @ Astros
Nolasco is 0-4, 7.45 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Angels are 1-5 in his road starts.
Fiers is 2-0, 3.27 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Houston is 2-2 in his home starts.
Angels are 4-5 in last nine road games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Houston is 12-3 in its last 15 games; over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games.
Blue Jays @ Mariners
Stroman is 3-0, 3.09 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Toronto is 4-1 in his road starts.
Miranda is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle is 3-2 in his home starts.
Toronto is 11-6 in its last 17 games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Seattle won six of its last seven games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Interleague
Rangers @ Nationals
Perez is 0-1, 8.40 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Rangers are 0-4 in his road starts.
Gonzalez is 2-0, 3.57 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his home starts.
Texas is 4-11 in its last 15 games; over is 11-3 in last 14 Ranger home games. Washington won eight of last 11 games; Nationals’ last seven home games stayed under.
Royals @ Padres
Kennedy is 0-4, 10.71 in his last five starts; his last six starts went over. Royals are 1-3 in his road starts.
Diaz is making his first MLB start; he’s allowed 21 runs in 24 IP in 21 relief stints this season. He never pitched above A ball in the minor leagues. Looks like a bullpen game.
Royals lost four of last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. San Diego lost five of its last six games; six of their last seven games went over.
Twins @ Giants
Berrios is 4-1, 2.81 in his five starts this season (under 4-0-1).
Samardzija is 2-2, 2.97 in his last five starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. Giants are 2-3 in his home starts.
Twins are 17-5 in their last 22 road games; over is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games. Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 games; under is 15-6-2 in their last 23 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Col-Chi: Hoffman 3-0; Butler 3-2
Mia-Pitt: Straily 6-6; Williams 4-2
NY-Atl: Gsellman 6-4; Matz 0-0; Newcomb 0-0 Wisler 0-0
Phil-StL: Pivetta 1-4; Martinez 6-6
Mil-Az: Guerra 1-3; Godley 4-2
Cin-LA: Wojciechowski 1-1; Wood 5-3
American League
Chi-Clev: Holmberg 1-1; Tomlin 4-7
Det-Bos: Verlander 6-6; Sale 9-3
A’s-TB: Gray 3-4 Manaea 5-5; Ramirez 4-1 Andriese 6-5
Balt-NY: Tillman 2-4; Severino 6-5
LA-Hst: Nolasco 3-9; Fiers 7-4
Tor-Sea: Stroman 8-4; Miranda 8-4
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Perez 3-9; Gonzalez 7-5
KC-SD: Kennedy 2-8; Diaz 0-0
Minn-SF: Berrios 4-1; Samardzija 5-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Col-Chi: Hoffman 0-3; Butler 2-5
Mia-Pitt: Straily 2-12; Williams 2-6
NY-Atl: Gsellman 5-10; Matz 0-0; Newcomb 0-0 Wisler 0-0
Phil-StL: Pivetta 2-5; Martinez 2-12
Mil-Az: Guerra 0-4; Godley 0-6
Cin-LA: Wojciechowski 0-2; Wood 1-8
American League
Chi-Clev: Holmberg 1-2; Tomlin 4-11
Det-Bos: Verlander 5-12; Sale 1-12
A’s-TB: Gray 1-7 Manaea 2-10; Ramirez 5-5 Andriese 6-11
Balt-NY: Tillman 3-6; Severino 2-11
LA-Hst: Nolasco 4-12; Fiers 6-11
Tor-Sea: Stroman 2-12; Miranda 4-12
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Perez 6-12; Gonzalez 5-12
KC-SD: Kennedy 2-10; Diaz 0-0
Minn-SF: Berrios 0-5; Samardzija 6-12
Umpires
National League
Col-Chi: Home team won last four Estabrook games.
Mia-Pitt: Five of last six Gibson games stayed under.
NY-Atl: Over is 10-1-1 in last dozen Hallion games. Under is 7-3 in last ten Cuzzi games.
Phil-StL: Six of last nine Conroy games stayed under.
Mil-Az: Favorites won last five HGibson games.
Cin-LA: Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Davis games.
American League
Chi-Clev: Four of last five Dreckman games stayed under.
Det-Bos: Underdogs won five of last seven Rackley games.
A’s-TB: Over is 6-3 in last nine Diaz games. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 Eddings games.
Balt-NY: Under is 7-2-1 in Fletcher games this season.
LA-Hst: Over is 8-2 in Wolcott games this season.
Tor-Sea: Underdogs won five of last seven Kellogg games.
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Three of last four Danley games went over.
KC-SD: Home side won eight of last nine Guccione games.
Minn-SF: Four of last five TBarrett games stayed under.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 33-16 AL, favorites -$49
AL @ NL– 31-29 AL, favorites +$104
Total: 64-45 AL, favorites +$55
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 29-24-1
AL @ NL: Over 33-23-1
Total: Over 62-47-2
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Toronto (29-31) at Seattle (30-31)
Scheduled rotation:: Biagini (1-4) vs. Gaviglio (2-1), Stroman (6-2) vs. Miranda (6-2), Happ (0-4) vs. Paxton (5-0)
Series Price: Mariners -150, Blue Jays +120
Look out Houston, there's a new player in the AL West. Okay, so the Mariners are still 13 games out and one game under .500 but they're finally playing to their abilities and expectations many had before the season started. Seattle was 25-to-1 to win the World Series at the Westgate SuperBook in March and now they're 80-to-1. Maybe now is the time to jump on board futures with some value. Teams that pop up with great play in the summer sometimes get forgotten by the Las Vegas sports books, many of whom adjust weekly as a routine -- as in each Monday -- rather than daily.
The Mariners have won nine of their last 11 games while batting .313 and their bullpen has been in lock down mode over that span with a 1.47 ERA. This weekend, Seattle has some major payback on their mind since being swept in a four game series at Toronto four weeks ago. The M's scored only six runs combined with the Jays starters looking playoff ready. However, they didn't face James Paxton who the Jays will get a look at Sunday.
Toronto has won only three times in its last 10 meetings at Safeco Field and the Over has happened in eight of the last 11 meetings in Seattle. I'm looking for Seattle to win Friday and especially Sunday, which means I like them to win the series laying the -150 at Station Casinos books..
Baltimore (31-27) at NY Yankees (34-23)
Scheduled rotation:: Bundy (6-4) vs. Montgomery (3-4), Tillman (1-3) vs. Severino (4-2), Gausman (3-4) vs. Tanaka (5-6)
Series Price: Yankees -175, Orioles +145
The first-place Yankees have a 3.5 game lead over the Orioles in the super-competitive AL East where the worst record in the division is Toronto at 29-31. Baltimore would be in first if they could manage to win some games on the road. Their 10-17 road record is second-worst in the American League behind Kansas City (9-17). The O's are currently on a miserable 1-10 road run. What's crazy is that the O's score 4.7 runs on the road, more than what they average at home. However, their pitchers on the road allow batters to .286 and score 5.3 runs a game.
This will be the 10th meeting between these clubs with the O's holding a 5-4 edge. However, only three game were played Yankee Stadium and the Yankees won that series 2-1 in late April. Eight of the nine games went Over the total.
Something interesting to note for the greedy baseball bettors who bet the run-line daily is that the Yankees at up +21.15 units if betting them on the run-line every game. I don't recommend that wager, but the bats of the Yankees get them runs quickly and that bet is cashing often. Only Houston (+1.8 ) has a larger margin of victory than the Yankees +1.5.
Milwaukee (32-29) at Arizona (37-25)
Scheduled rotation:: Davies (6-3) vs. Delgado (1-1), Guerra (1-0) vs. Godley (1-1), Anderson (5-1) vs. Ray (6-3)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -185, Brewers +155
The first-place Brewers head to Arizona to face the toughest home team in baseball. The Diamondbacks have gone 24-8 at Chase Field and just come off a three-game sweep of the Padres to kick off a short six-game home stand. They're up +15.7 units at home this season while averaging 6.5 runs a game and batting .296. Those type of figures have helped 21 of their 32 home games get Over the total. Chase Anderson vs. Robbie Ray on Sunday is going to be some kind of match-up and should be the only Under of the series.
Cincinnati (29-30) at LA Dodgers (36-25)
Scheduled rotation:: Garrett (3-4) vs. Hill (2-2), Wojciechowski (1-0) vs. Wood (6-0), Adleman (4-2) vs. Ryu (2-6)
Series Price: Dodgers -300, Reds +250
This is a chunky series price when the Dodgers don't have Clayton Kershaw pitching. However, the Dodgers are 37-15 in their last 52 home games and have won 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Reds. The one area where you could argue for the Reds to steal two games and win the series is that the Dodgers are batting .189 in their last 10 games.
Minnesota (30-26) at San Francisco (25-37)
Scheduled rotation:: Santana (7-3) vs. Moore (2-6), Berrios (4-1) vs. Samardzija (2-7), TBD vs. Cain (3-5)
Series Price: Giants -150, Twins +130
Hey Minnesota, it's the second week in June...what the heck are guys still doing atop the AL Central? Experts had you guys pegged for last-place in a division that was supposed to come down to the Indians and Tigers. But here you are in first-place heading to San Francisco to face the anemic offense of the Giants. Sports Books in Las Vegas certainly are starting to believe as odds to win the World Series have dropped over the past few weeks from 100-to-1 down to 60-to-1.
I'm looking at the Giants being -150 to win the series and trying to figure out why. They score only 3.2 runs a game at home while the Twins have gone 18-8 on the road. Take the Twins to take two of three here and win the series.
Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Rockies (6-0 past six games, 17-8 past 25 overall)
The Rockies topped the defending champion Cubs again on Friday at Wrigley Field, 5-3. So far Colorado is 2-for-2 in Chitown, outscoring the Cubs 9-4 while already hanging an 'L' on Jon Lester. Now, Colorado will face former Rockies pitcher Eddie Butler with the wind gusting out to straightaway center field at 18-22 mph. The Rockies have won four in a row on the road, while going 19-7 in their past 26 games against a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, the Cubbies have dropped right straight against National League West teams while going 1-7 in their past eight against teams with a winning percentage over .600. Colorado has won five of the past six in this series, and four of their past five outings at the Friendly Confines.
Coldest team Pirates (0-4 past four games, 5-15 past 20 overall)
The Pirates haven't had a lot of luck in the first two games in their series with the Marlins, as Miami has come to the Steel City and outscored the Bucs 19-8 so far. That includes a 7-1 win in the series opener against ace Gerrit Coles. Trevor Williams has been a solid option for the Pirates lately, as the Bucs are 4-1 over their past five starts.He'll need to keep pitching well with the Marlins going 8-2 over their past 10 meetings with the Pirates, including 4-0 in their past four trips to Pittsburgh. The Marlins are just 3-9 over their past 12 road games vs. RHP.
Hottest pitcher: Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (5-1, 3.03 ERA)
Gonzalez will host the Rangers in Saturday's matinee game in D.C. He hasn't lost since May 8 in Baltimore, and he is unbeaten at home over six starts. Gonzalez has won just once at Nationals Park, but he has a sparkling 1.69 ERA with a .220 opponent batting average and 36 strikeouts over 37 1/3 innings. He has been at his best during day baseball, too, going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA over six day starts, striking out 33 over 38 1/3 innings while limiting the opposition to a .212 batting average. While the Nationals are just 1-4 over Gonzalez's past five interleague starts, they're 9-4 over his past 13 at home.
Coldest pitcher: Josh Tomlin, Indians (3-7, 5.54 ERA)
Tomlin lost just nine games in 2016, but he has dropped seven of his 10 decisions already this season and his 5.54 ERA would be the second worst of his career outside of 2012 when he had a 6.36 ERA. He has started to show some signs of improvement, posting back-to-back quality starts, but we've seen that movie before. He had back-to-back impressive quality starts from May 6-12 before getting bombed by the Rays for six runs, seven hits and two walks in just 2 1/3 innings back on May 17. He hasn't been able to piece together three quality starts at any point this season. The Indians are just 2-5 in Tomlin's past seven home starts, and 1-4 over his past five assignments overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Dodgers (7-2 past nine games overall)
The 'under' has been a frequent occurence lately, as the Los Angeles offense has experienced a power outage. L.A. is good for two or fewer runs in four of their past five, and seven of their past nine outings. It was a rare 'over' in Friday's series opener against Cincinnati, albeirt just barely. With a total of 8 1/2 the Dodgers were able to cobble together seven runs, but it was the Reds posting one run in the top of the ninth inning to serve 'under' bettors a bad beat. The Dodgers send LHP Alex Wood to the hill on Saturday. Cincinnati has seen the 'under' go 8-2-1 in their past 11 road games against a left-handed starter, while the 'under is 6-1 in Alex Wood's past seven against NL Central foes.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (5-0 past five games overall)
The Diamondbacks offense has picked up the pace over the past few games, averaging 9.5 runs over the past four outings. They have allowed 4.8 runs per game over the past five outings, so it's no surprise the 'over' has been on a roll. The 'over' is also 5-1 in Arizona's past six against a right-handed starter while going 49-21-3 over their past 73 games at Chase Field. The over is in good shape with Zack Godley on the hill, too. The total has gone over in six of his past seven starts at home while going 9-3 in his past 12 outings overall. The Brewers have been playing along, too, with the over going 4-1 in their past five road games against a team with a winning overall mark, and 6-2-1 in their past nine road outings against a team with a home winning percentage over .600.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
The Brewers send Junior Guerra to the hill trying to stay hot. Milwaukee won the series opener on Friday by an 8-6 count, and they have won three of the past four overall. However, the Brewers haven't won three or more in a row since a four-game run from May 16-19. While Milwaukee is 0-4 over Guerra's past four starts against NL West foes, they have won each of his past four outings while going 4-1 over his past five road assignments against a team with a winning overall mark. The Brewers snapped a four-game losing streak in the desert with their win Friday. Godley has posted a 1-0 record with a 0.73 ERA in two starts and a relief appearance in his career against the Brew Crew.
Betcha didn’t know: The Blue Jays have loved Marcus Stroman's performance on the road so far this season. He is 4-0 with a 3.34 ERA in five road outings this season. He also struck out nine batters over six innings in a no-decision in his first meeting with Seattle back on May 13, allowing two runs with eight hits. It will be a tough assignment, though, as southpaw Angel Miranda has been tough. He has won three straight victories, pairing with James Paxton to give the Mariners some much needed solid pitching. He also met Stroman in his first start against the Jays on May 13, allowing one run and three hits with eight punchouts over five frames.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-240) vs. Reds
Biggest public underdog: Twins (+155) at Giants
Biggest line move: Giants (-120 to -155) vs. Twins
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double Play-Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-150, 10)
Two of the MLB’s most surprising teams continue a three-game set in Arizona tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Diamondbacks Saturday night at Chase Field.
The Brewers still lead the NL Central at 33-29 thanks to a powerful offense, while the Diamondbacks are the current holders of the second wildcard spot at 37-26. Milwaukee not surprisingly slugged their way to an 8-6 victory in the series opener. For Game 2 the Brewers send Junior Guerra to take on the D-backs’ Zack Godley.
Guerra has found success since returning to the Brewers rotation from a calf injury, going 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA, but he does have a 1.381 WHIP, so he’s been a little lucky and he has the tough task with a Diamondbacks lineup that is dominant at home.
Arizona is 24-9 at Chase Field this season thanks to an offense that scoring an MLB best 6.5 runs per game at home. They also lead the league in batting average and OPS at home.
Meanwhile, Goldey is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.964 WHIP in three starts at home this season. The D-backs right-hander also had his way with the Brewers lineup just two weeks ago, scattering five hits in six scoreless innings pitched.
Arizona doesn’t lose two in a row at home very often.
Pick: Diamondbacks -150
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (-123, 12.5)
The puzzling Cubs season continues Saturday afternoon against the red-hot Rockies, who took the first game of a three-game weekend series at Wrigley field.
The Cubs are back in a mini slump dropping their last three in a row to drop to 30-30. Luckily it’s still good enough for second place in the NL Central. Chicago turns to Eddie Butler to stop their slide against the NL West leading Rockies. Butler is 3-1 with a 3.75 ERA since joining the Cubs rotation, but also has a 1.375 WHIP.
The Cubs offense has been truly inconsistent in 2017. They score 4.62 runs per game, good for 15th in the majors, but rank 29th in batting average and 19th in OPS.
They will face young Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has really found his groove since joing the Rockies rotation. He’s 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.742 WHIP in three starts and has allowed just two earned runs on just six hits, while racking up 16 strikeouts and zero walks in his last two starts.
The Rockies are also the most profitable team in the MLB this year at $2052, with most of that money cashing on the road ($1643) thanks to an MLB best road record 23-10 away from Coos Field.
Love that value today.
Pick: Rockies +120
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 57-48-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (6-0, 1.69 ERA, $154)
The Dodgers young southpaw is absolutely dealing right now as he has pitched 25.1 consecutive scoreless innings.
Wood has gone 4-0 in his last four starts overall and obviously has an ERA of zero, with a 0.900 WHIP, while racking up 33 strikeouts with six walks. Wood and the Dodgers are a very chalky -250 favorite at home tonight against the Reds.
Slumping: Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Angels (2-6, 5.05 ERA, $-602)
It’s been a rough few starts for the Angels’ veteran right-hander and while Nolasco had a solid start to the season, Los Angeles has lost his last seven starts overall.
Nolascos’ last three starts in particular have been tough, pitching to a 8.79 ERA and a 1.705 WHIP. Nolasco toes the rubber this afternoon in Houston as big +160 underdogs against the MLB best Astros.
Saturday's Top Trends
* The Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games when the Tigers are in Boston. O/U: 9
* The Orioles are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. +196 at Yankees.
* The White Sox are 1-8 in their last nine overall. +195 at Indians.
* The Blue Jays are 6-0 in Marcus Stroman's last six starts. -115 at Mariners.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
It should be a beautiful day for baseball at ball parks all around the country, but there are a few fields that will be experiencing some definite hitter’s winds.
The strongest hitters winds will be found in Chicago at Wrigley Field where the Cubs host the Rockies (O/U: 8.5) with a wind blowing out to left center field at about 20 miles per hour and in San Francisco at AT&T Park where the Giants will host the Twins (O/U: 7.5), with a 20 mile per hour wind gusting out to center.
There will also be hitters winds gusting between 10-14 miles per hour in St. Louis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Cleveland, Boston and New York.
Ump Of The Day
Gerry Davis: Davis will be calling balls and strikes in Los Angeles for tonight’s Dodgers-Reds game, something which will peak the interest of both teams. The Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games with Davis behind home plate, while the Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 games with him officiating. The Dodgers are currently big -250 favorites.