MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, June 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cubs @ Pirates
Arrieta is 1-0, 3.86 in his last three starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. Cubs lost his last five road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-5-2
Nova is 3-1, 3.38 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Pirates are 4-2 in his home starts; their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
Cubs are 2-10 in last 12 road games; five of their last six games went over. Pirates won four of last six games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games.
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
Godley is 1-0, 2.41 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Arizona’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1
Eickhoff is 0-4, 6.68 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Philly is 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1
Arizona won eight of last nine games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. Phillies lost nine of last ten games; under is 6-4-1 in their last 11 games.
Dodgers @ Reds
Ryu is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts (under 6-3-1). He is 0-4, 7.18 in five road starts. LA’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-8
Wojciechowski is 0-0, 6.00 in three starts this year (over 2-1); Cincinnati’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-3
Dodgers won seven of their last eight games; six of LA’s last seven games went over. Reds lost their last seven games; their last three games stayed under.
Nationals @ Mets
Strasburg is 4-1, 3.49 in his last six starts; under is 5-2 in his road starts. Washington is 6-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6 (7-1 in last 8 )
Lugo allowed one run in seven IP (90 PT) in his first ’17 start, in Atlanta. Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Washington won three of its last four games; their last five games went over. Mets lost three of their last four games; their last four games went over.
Marlins @ Braves
Locke is 0-2, 4.60 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Marlins’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Garcia is 1-2, 1.91 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under. Atlanta is 1-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5-3
Marlins won six of last eight games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Atlanta lost its last four home games; four of their last six games went over.
Padres @ Brewers
Lamet is 0-2, 18.00 in his last two starts (over 2-1-1). Padres’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Anderson is 3-1, 0.33 in his last four starts (under 3-1); Brewers won his last three home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2
San Diego won three of its last four games; over is 10-3 in their last 13 games. Milwaukee won its last four games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Giants @ Rockies
Cain is 0-4, 7.33 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Giants ae 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-1
Freeland is 2-2, 4.13 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Colorado is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
Giants are 4-13 in their last 17 games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. Colorado won its last four home games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven home tilts.
American League
White Sox @ Blue Jays
Pelfrey is 2-1, 2.88 in his last five starts (over 5-5); Chicago is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-4-2
Stroman is 4-0, 2.97 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Toronto won his last four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-1
White Sox won four of last five games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Toronto is 3-4 in its last seven home games; over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 home games.
Rays @ Tigers
Archer is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Rays are 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-2-4
Fulmer is 1-3, 4.78 in his last four starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Detroit is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5
Rays lost their last three games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Detroit is 6-4 in its last 10 home games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 games.
Mariners @ Rangers
Gallardo is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Seattle split his six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2
Perez is 0-1, 7.20 in his last four starts (under 8-5). Texas is 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2
Seattle lost five of last seven games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Texas won six of its last seven games; over is 10-1 in their last 11 home games.
Red Sox @ Astros
Porcello is 0-3, 5.76 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under. Boston split his six road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-11
Paulino is 1-0, 5.93 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Astros’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1
Boston won six of last eight games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Astros lost four of last five games; under is 11-6-1 in their last 18 home games.
Indians @ Twins
Clevinger is 0-2, 6.89 in his last three starts (under 4-2). Indians’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1. Merritt is making his first ’17 start; he allowed two runs in 11 big league IP LY. Merritt is 7-5, 3.84 in 12 AAA starts this season.
Mejia is 0-1, 6.86 in his last four starts (under 4-3-1). Twins’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-2-3. Wilk started one game for the Mets this year, allowing six runs in 3.2 IP (80 PT).
Indians lost four of last six games; under is 18-5 in their last 23 road games. Twins lost seven of last nine home games; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine home games.
New York @ A’s
Tanaka is 0-5, 9.20 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. New York is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1
Hahn is 1-2, 6.27 in his last four starts; over is 3-1 in his home starts. Oakland is 3-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-5-3
New York lost its last four games, all by the bullpen; seven of their last eight games went over. Oakland lost six of its last nine games but won last two; over is 10-1-2 in their last 13 games.
Royals @ Angels
Junis is 1-0, 7.04 in three starts this year (over 3-0). Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1
Meyer is 0-2, 3.48 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Angels are 1-3 in his home starts- their 5-inning record with him:
Royals won eight of last ten games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Angels are 3-6 in last nine home games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Interleague
Cardinals @ Orioles
Wainwright is 5-1, 3.09 in his last six starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. St Louis won his last four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2
Miley 1-3, 6.75 in his last five starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Orioles are 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1
Cardinals lost three of last four games; four of their last five games went over. Orioles lost eight of last nine games; over is 6-2 in their last seven games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Chi-Pitt: Arrieta 7-6; Nova 7-6
Az-Phil: Godley 5-2; Eickhoff 2-11
LA-Cin: Ryu 3-7; Wojciechowski 1-2
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 9-4; Lugo 1-0
Mia-Atl: Locke 0-3; Garcia 5-7
SD-Mil: Lamet 2-2; Anderson 7-6
SF-Col: Cain 6-7; Freeland 9-4
American League
Chi-Tor: Pelfrey 4-6; Stroman 9-4
TB-Det: Archer 8-6; Fulmer 7-5
Sea-Tex: Gallardo 5-8; Perez 4-9
Bos-Hst: Porcello 6-8; Paulino 2-1
Clev-Min: Clevinger 2-4 Merritt 0-0; Mejia 3-5 Wilk 0-1/0-0
NY-A’s: Tanaka 6-7; Hahn 3-7
KC-LA: Junis 3-0; Meyer 2-6
Interleague
StL-Balt: Wainwright 8-5; Miley 7-6
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Chi-Pitt: Arrieta 4-13; Nova 3-13
Az-Phil: Godley 0-7; Eickhoff 4-13
LA-Cin: Ryu 5-10; Wojciechowski 1-3
Wsh-NY: Strasburg 2-13; Lugo 0-1
Mia-Atl: Locke 1-3; Garcia 3-12
SD-Mil: Lamet 2-4; Anderson 3-13
SF-Col: Cain 5-13; Freeland 3-13
American League
Chi-Tor: Pelfrey 2-10; Stroman 2-13
TB-Det: Archer 4-14; Fulmer 4-12
Sea-Tex: Gallardo 6-13; Perez 6-13
Bos-Hst: Porcello 4-14; Paulino 1-3
Clev-Min: Clevinger 0-6 Merritt 0-0; Mejia 3-8 Wilk 1-1
NY-A’s: Tanaka 7-13; Hahn 4-10
KC-LA: Junis 0-3; Meyer 4-4
Interleague
StL-Balt: Wainwright 3-13; Miley 4-12
Umpires
National League
Chi-Pitt: Five of last six Fagan games went over.
Az-Phil: Under is 7-4 in Nauert games this season.
LA-Cin: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Scheurwater games.
Wsh-NY: Over is 4-2 in last six Lentz games.
Mia-Atl: Underdogs are 9-2 in last 11 Eddings games.
SD-Mil: Four of last five O’Nora games stayed under.
SF-Col: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Morales games.
American League
Chi-Tor: Four of last five Winters games stayed under.
TB-Det: Favorites won eight of last ten Meals games.
Sea-Tex: Underdogs are 9-4 in last 13 West games.
Bos-Hst: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Holbrook games.
Clev-Min: Four of last five Hudson games went over. Favorites won five of last seven Layne games.
NY-A’s: Underdogs are 8-3 in last 11 Barksdale games; under is 9-2-1 in his games this year.
KC-LA: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Carlson games.
Interleague
StL-Balt: Home side won five of seven Randazzo games this season.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 36-21 AL, favorites +$64
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 73-56 AL, favorites -$565
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 35-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 76-52-3
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Sometimes a team just has another teams number. That certainly applies to the White Sox when it comes to the Blue Jays. After last night's 11-4 victory the Pale Hose enter Saturday's contest with 10 wins, 4 losses the past two plus seasons. Such numbers have not been limited to recent times. Since the 2013 campaign Pale Hose have won 15 of 21 encounters including 8-3 north of the border.
Marcus Stroman carrying a 7-0 team start record to the mound on Saturday the betting market has Jays a whopping -$2.75 favorite at Sports Interaction, $2.40 at Bodog.eu, Buyer beware, Jays 0-4 in Stroman's 4 career starts vs Pale Hose.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland (32-31) at Minnesota (34-29)
Scheduled rotation: Carrasco (6-3) vs. Turley (0-0), Merritt (0-0) vs. Mejia (1-2), Clevinger (2-3) vs. Wilk (0-1), Bauer (5-5) vs. Gibson (4-4)
While I've been absolutely captivated by what's going on with three 41-win teams battling for the National West lead, the next division that has my attention is the American League Central where the Minnesota Twins continue to amaze by leading last year's division winner, the Cleveland Indians, by two games. We all expected this when the Twins started 4-0, right?
Station Casinos sports books have posted the Indians as minus-160 road favorites to win the four-game series which features a day/night double-header on Saturday. The Indians have won four of the six meetings so far this season, inlcuding a sweep at Target Field in April. Last season, it was the last-place Twins who played the Indians the toughest within the division going 9-10.
Everyone often refers back to last season when discussing the Indians because it's been such a sharp decline in 2017 with basically the same players. To make matters sound worse, they should be better by adding bopper Edwin Encarnacion, who started slow but has gotten hot lately.
Last season it was the month of June where the Indians put major separartion between them and the rest of the division by going 22-6, which included a 14-game winning streak. Nothing like that is happening this season with their longest win streak being five games sprinkled around four separate three-game losing streaks. They've held the division lead a few times this season, but haven't been in first place since June 1.
So the question is whether Minnesota really is this good or is Cleveland just not playing up to its high expectations? Perhaps its a little of both, but you have to be amazed with Minnesota sitting in first-place.
"We’d all be lying if we haven’t been scoreboard watching since we got off to a 4-0 start," said Minnesota catcher Chris Gimenez. He was on the Indians last season and has brought some of that cocky confidence required to win with him to Minnesota.
"I think, last year especially, Cleveland was kind of the bully on the block," Gimenez said. "We want to let people know that we’re ready to kind of take the bully on and punch him in the mouth. This is a good opportunity to do that."
The problem with the Twins is their 14-20 record at home. They've done all their damage on the road at 20-9. What looks crazier in the standings, other than Minnesota on top, is seeing a division leader in June with a minus-24 run (304-328) differential. To put into perspective, the Yankees are +113 and the Astros are +102.
What the Twins have done is just play within themselves. They never get too high. Their longest win streak has been four games and they've done it four times. Their longest losing skid has been four games and its happened only twice. They bring their lunch pails to work and play hard. Who doesn't like that kind of story?
One of the biggest issues with Cleveland this season has been its starting rotation, which ranks 24th with a 4.84 ERA. The good news for the Indians is knowing if they can get to the sixth inning with a lead, the best bullpen in baseball can close it out. They've converted 19 of 22 saves and have a 2.83 ERA.
Something to watch this weekend is how super-reliever Andrew Miller responds after the Dodgers treated him so rudely by handing him his only two losses on consecutive nights. The Dodgers also cracked the only two homers off him this season. Miller had allowed only one earned run in 27 appearances (Indians were 22-5 in his games), but he gave up five between his two outings which took his ERA from 0.29 up to 1.60. He hasn't pitched since then.
The Indians have been a terrible wager for bettors this season just because their starting rotation was way overrated when the season started making all their prices too high. The overall team rating was a few cents too high as was the home field edge. They've gone 15-17 at home. Overall, the Indians are -15.3 units. However, something they are the best at in wagering is staying 'under' the total 59 percent of the time at 36-25-2, which includes going 18-6-2 to the 'under' in their last 26 road games.
The Twins have a respectable +5.8 units of profit and their totals have gone 29-29-5. Last season Minnesota was by far the best 'over' team in baseball.
Boston (37-29) at Houston (45-22)
Scheduled rotation: Pomeranz (6-4) vs. Fiers (4-2), Porcello (3-8 ) vs. Paulino (0-0), Price (1-1) vs. Musgrove (4-5)
Before Houston's win on Wednesday over Texas to avoid a sweep, the Astros had lost six of eight games. However, they still managed to have the best record in baseball with a few games to spare. The big key to their success has been getting great starting pitching -- No. 2 with a 3.56 ERA -- and also getting on top of opponents early. In the first game of all series this season the Astros are 16-5. And then they close it out strong going 13-6 in the third game. Boston comes in having won five of its last seven, but I'd be surprised if they win this series. The price looks cheap on Houston.
Arizona (41-26) at Philadelphia (22-43)
Scheduled rotation: Corbin (5-6) vs. Nola (3-4), Godley (2-1) vs. Eickhoff (0-7), Ray (7-3) vs. Lively (1-1)
Arizona keeps hanging in there with the Dodgers and Rockies and it has elevated its game even more as the pressure mounts. They've won seven of their last eight, including their last four. They've won 20 of their past 28. The main reason has been the starters, who statistically are the best collective unit in baseball. Yes, they have a lower unit ERA than the Dodgers who usually lead that category. They also have an amazing lineup that mashes which has helped seven of their last nine go 'over' the total. Arizona swept a four-game series at Philly last June and I look for the same to happen here. The Diamondbacks have gone 15-6 in the first game of a series this season. Laying -150 to win the series is about 30 cents cheap, even without Zack Greinke.
Chicago Cubs (32-33) at Pittsburgh (30-36)
Scheduled rotation: Butler (3-2) vs. Williams (3-3), Arrieta (6-4) vs. Nova (6-4), Lackey (4-7) vs. Taillon (3-1)
The World Champs may have the largest fan base across the nation, and each time they visit a city with a jam packed ballpark they haven't been showing a good product.How does 3-13 in their last 16 road games sound? How does -16.5 units sound? That's where the Cubs are while being just one-game under .500. The sports books in Las Vegas have done quite well on the Cubs failures so far and have kept the prices inflated because despite the losing, people are still betting them. "This is going to be the game they start a large win streak," is what some bettors keep telling themselves. The last time the Cubs visited PNC Park, they took two of three in late April. A few weeks before that, the Bucs swept three games at Wrigley Field. The Pirates are on a run of winning four of their last five overall.
L.A. Dodgers (41-36) at Cincinnati (29-36)
Scheduled rotation: Wood (6-0) vs Adleman (4-2), Ryu (2-6) vs. Wojciechowski (1-0), Maeda (4-3) vs. Arroyo (3-5)
The Dodgers will be favored in all three games and they've gone 25-9 in their last 34 games as the favorite. They also won 53 of the previous 78 meetings with the Reds, including a three-game sweep at Dodger Stadium earlier this month where all three games went 'over' the total. Look for that trend again this weekend. The Reds are officially the worst starting rotation in baseball with its starters posting a 5.97 ERA which is way behind No. 29 Baltimore's at 5.43. The Dodgers are No. 3 with a 3.63 ERA
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Sometimes a team just has another teams number. That certainly applies to the White Sox when it comes to the Blue Jays. After last night's 11-4 victory the Pale Hose enter Saturday's contest with 10 wins, 4 losses the past two plus seasons. Such numbers have not been limited to recent times. Since the 2013 campaign Pale Hose have won 15 of 21 encounters including 8-3 north of the border.
Marcus Stroman carrying a 7-0 team start record to the mound on Saturday the betting market has Jays a whopping -$2.75 favorite at Sports Interaction, $2.40 at Bodog.eu, Buyer beware, Jays 0-4 in Stroman's 4 career starts vs Pale Hose.
Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Royals (6-0 past six games)
The Royals picked up their sixth consecutive victory in Friday's series opener against the Halos, as Ian Kennedy was perfect into the sixth inning en route to his first win of the season. He was the last American League starter with at least 10 starts to pick up his first win. The Royals have posted six straight road wins, five in a row against a right-handed starter and they're 6-0 in their past six games on grass while going 4-1 in their past five against American League West foes. The Angels, on the other hand, are just 3-8 in their past 11 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 over Alex Meyer's past four outings.
Coldest team Reds (0-7 past seven games)
The Reds have suffered seven setbacks in a row, and they'll look to avoid their eighth consecutive loss against Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers on Saturday at Great American Ball Park. They're facing a golden opportunity to end the skid with Ryu on the hill, as the Dodgers are 0-7 over his past seven road outings and 3-10 over his past 13 overall. Unfortunately for the Reds, they're just 2-6 in their past eight home games against a left-handed starters, 19-46 in their past 65 overall vs. LHP and a dismal 1-12 over their past 13 games against National League West Division opponents.
Hottest pitcher: Chase Anderson, Brewers (5-2, 2.83 ERA)
Anderson will square off against rookie Dinelson Lamet and the Padres in Saturday's home game. He has the best ERA among all probable pitchers on the schedule. The Padres have a rather toothless offense, ranking third in the majors with 631 strikeouts while ranking 29th in the league with a .681 OPS. They also rank dead-last with just 248 runs scored, 10 fewer than any other team in the league. Milwaukee is an impressive 5-2 over Anderson's past seven starts at home against a team with a losing record, while the Padres have dropped six of their past eight against a right-handed starter. They're also 0-4 in their past four road games agaisnt a team with a winning overall mark.
Coldest pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, Mariners (3-6, 6.11 ERA)
The Mariners have had plenty of surprising pitching performances from unlikely sources lately. Gallardo isn't one of them. He enters 1-3 with a 9.00 ERA over his past five outings across 25.0 innings. The M's have won just two of their past seven games overall, while the Rangers have won six of their past seven outings. It's a difficult matchup for Gallardo, as the Rangers rank 13th in the majors with 318 runs scored while swatting 88 homers. The Rangers are also 4-1 in their past five home outings against the M's with left-handed Martin Perez on the bump, while Seattle has dropped seven in a row in Arlington.
Biggest UNDER run: Rangers (6-2 past eight games)
The 'over' has hit in the past two for Texas after a six-game run, but the under is still the play for Texas. Or is it? The over has cashed in four straight meetings in Arlington, 5-0 in Perez's past five home starts against the Mariners and 10-2 in Perez's past 12 starts vs. the M's. The over has also cashed in 20 of the past 28 meetings in this series. However, the 'under' is 6-2-1 in Perez's past nine home starts and 6-2 in his past eight starts inside the division. The under is also 7-2 in Seattle's past nine road games.
Biggest OVER run: Royals (8-2 past 10 games overall)
The Royals have rolled to six consecutive victories, and a good reason is because their offense has come alive. Kansas City is averaging 7.5 runs per game over the six-game run while holding the opposition to 1.8 runs per game over the past five outings. With a matchup of Jake Junis and Alex Meyer, the 'over' looks like a pretty solid play. The over is 12-2 in Kansas City's past 14 against teams with a losing record, 6-1 in their past seven vs. RHP on the road and 38-18-2 in their past 58 road games against a team with a losing overall record. The over is also 5-1 in Meyer's past six against a team with a losing overall mark.
Matchup to watch: Pirates vs. Cubs
The defending champion Cubs have won just two of their past 12 games on the road while going 2-8 over their past 10 road outings against a right-handed starting pitcher. However, if anyone is going to break their skid it is Jake Arrieta. The Cubbies are 19-7 over Arrieta's past 26 starts against a team with a losing record and 11-4 over his past 15 starts against the Bucs, including 6-2 over his past eight assignments at PNC Park. The 'over' has also cashed in four consecutive games by Arrieta against the Pirates, while going 20-7-1 in the past 28 meetings overall in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have really struggled, going 4-10 over their past 14 divisional games, and 2-5 in their past seven at home against a right-handed starter. They're also 0-4 in Ivan Nova's past four outings against NL Central foes.
Betcha didn’t know: The Indians closed the lead of the Twins to just one game with an 8-1 win at Target Field in the series opener on Friday. Cleveland has picked up seven wins over their past 10 road games against a team with a losing home record, and they're 4-1 in their past five vs. divisional foes. The Twins are just 2-7 in their past nine home games and 1-4 in their past five vs. RHP. Cleveland has won five consecutive games at Target Field, while going 11-3 in the past 14 meetings overall. Jose Ramirez has picked up eight hits over his past 13 at-bats with three RBI over the past three games, while Edwin Encarnacion has four homers over the past seven outings. Eddie Rosario has four homers over the past four games, and he has a .309 career average vs. the Indians.
Biggest public favorite: Blue Jays (-240) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Royals (+135) at Angels
Biggest line move: Reds (+160 to +130) vs. Dodgers