MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, June 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Reds @ Nationals
Bailey is making his first ’17 start; he is 60-54, 4.24 in 174 career starts. He was 3-0, 1.08 in three minor league rehab starts this year.
Ross is 1-3, 7.52 in his last five starts (over 6-3). Washington is 4-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3
Reds lost 12 of their last 13 games; Reds’ last six games went over the total. Washington lost three of last five games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
Cubs @ Marlins
Lester is 1-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-2
Nicolino is 0-1, 6.75 in four starts this year (over 2-1-1); Miami’s1st 5-inning record with him: 1-3
Cubs won five of last eight games, are 4-12 in last 16 road tilts; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Miami won eight of its last ten home games; over is 7-4-1 in their last 12 home games.
Brewers @ Braves
Garza is 1-3, 7.11 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Brewers are 2-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-2
Dickey is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three home starts; over is 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts overall. Braves are 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2
Milwaukee is 7-4 in its last 11 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Atlanta won seven of last nine games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Cole is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; under is 10-2-1 in his last 13. Pirates are 3-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-10-3
Lynn is 1-2, 5.04 in his last five starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. St Louis is 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-1
Pirates are 4-3 in their last seven games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games. St Louis lost seven of last ten games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Lively is 1-1, 3.33 in four starts (under 3-0-1). Phillies’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1
Ray is 5-0, 1.07 in his last six starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Arizona is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-3-5
Phillies lost 12 of last 15 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Arizona won 12 of its last 15 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Chatwood is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-2 in his last nine. Colorado is 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1
Kershaw is 3-0, 3.29 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his home starts. Dodgers are 6-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-3-3
Colorado lost its last three games, allowing 31 runs; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Dodgers won 13 of last 14 games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games.
Mets @ Giants
deGrom is 2-0, 1.06 in his last two starts; his last six road starts went over the total. Mets are 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1
Cueto is 0-3, 4.94 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-2 in his home starts. Giants are 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-3
Mets lost six of last eight games; over is 9-1 in their last ten games. San Francisco lost 10 of last 11 games; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games.
American League
Rangers @ New York
Dirkx is 1-0, 4.86 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Rangers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-0-2
Cessa allowed four runs in four IP (73 PT) in his first ’17 start, at Oakland. New York’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Texas won six of last eight road games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. New York lost eight of its last ten games; over is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 home games.
Orioles @ Rays
Bundy is 1-3, 7.08 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Orioles are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1
Faria is 3-0, 1.37 in his first three MLB starts (over 1-1-1). Rays’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-0
Baltimore is 4-12 in its last 16 games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Tampa Bay won five of last six games; Rays’ last nine home games went over.
Angels @ Red Sox
Ramirez is 1-2, 8.53 in his last four starts (over 3-1); Angels won his last four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5-4
Price is 2-1, 5.14 in five starts this year (over 2-2-1). Boston’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-2
Angels are 6-4 in last ten road games; over is 7-1 in their last eight road games. Boston is 10–2 in last 12 home games; four of their last five games went over.
Twins @ Indians
Gibson 3-1, 4.56 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Minnesota won his last four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Kluber is 3-0, 1.61 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Indians are 4-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5
Minnesota lost five of last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Cleveland won eight of last ten games; over is 3-1 in their last four home games.
A’s @ White Sox
Gossett is 0-2, 8.10 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Oakland’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2
Shields is 1-0, 2.42 in four starts this year (over 2-2). White Sox’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1
Oakland lost four of its last five games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games. White Sox lost four of last five games; under is 6-4-1 in their last 11 home games.
Blue Jays @ Royals
Estrada is 0-3, 12.67 in his last four starts; under is 3-1 in his last four road starts. Toronto is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-8
Vargas is 5-0, 2.20 in his last five starts, last three of which went over. Royals are 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-4-1
Toronto lost three of last four games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Royals won 10 of last 12 games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games.
Astros @ Mariners
McCullers is making his first start since June 8; he is 4-0, 2.10 in his last six starts. Houston is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-4-3
Gaviglio is 4-0, 4.78 in his last five starts (under 3-1-3). Seattle’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-2-1
Houston won four of its last five games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 home games; their last three games went over.
Interleague
Tigers @ Padres
Sanchez allowed two runs in five IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start; Tigers’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1
Lamet is 2-2, 8.25 in five starts this year; his last three went over. San Diego’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3
Detroit lost its last seven games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven road games. San Diego won its last four home games; Padres’ last five games stayed under the total.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Cin-Wsh: Bailey 0-0; Ross 6-3
Chi-Mia: Lester 8-7; Nicolino 3-1
Mil-Atl: Garza 5-5; Dickey 8-6
Pitt-StL: Cole 8-7; Lynn 6-8
Phil-Az: Lively 1-3; Ray 10-4
Col-LA: Chatwood 7-8; Kershaw 13-2
NY-SF: deGrom 8-6; Cueto 8-7
American League
Tex-NY: Dirkx 1-2; Cessa 0-1
Balt-TB: Bundy 8-7; Faria 3-0
LA-Bos: Ramirez 8-5; Price 3-2
Min-Clev: Gibson 6-6; Kluber 7-3
A’s-Chi: Gossett 0-2; Shields 2-2
Tor-KC: Estrada 7-8; Vargas 10-4
Hst-Sea: McCullers 11-2; Gaviglio 6-1
Interleague
Det-SD: Sanchez 0-1; Lamet 3-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Wsh: Bailey 0-0; Ross 4-9
Chi-Mia: Lester 6-15; Nicolino 2-4
Mil-Atl: Garza 2-10; Dickey 5-14
Pitt-StL: Cole 3-15; Lynn 5-14
Phil-Az: Lively 3-4; Ray 5-14
Col-LA: Chatwood 2-15; Kershaw 4-15
NY-SF: deGrom 6-14; Cueto 5-15
American League
Tex-NY: Dirkx 1-3; Cessa 0-1
Balt-TB: Bundy 1-15; Faria 2-3
LA-Bos: Ramirez 9-13; Price 1-5
Min-Clev: Gibson 3-12; Kluber 1-10
A’s-Chi: Gossett 0-2; Shields 1-4
Tor-KC: Estrada 7-15; Vargas 3-14
Hst-Sea: McCullers 3-13; Gaviglio 2-7
Interleague
Det-SD: Sanchez 0-1; Lamet 3-2
Umpires
National League
Cin-Wsh: Over is 6-0-2 in last eight Emmel games.
Chi-Mia: Home side won seven of last nine Cuzzi games.
Mil-Atl: Favorites won six of seven May games.
Pitt-StL: Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Nelson games.
Phil-Az: Eight of last nine Cederstrom games went over.
Col-LA: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Bucknor games.
NY-SF: Six of last seven Hudson games went over.
American League
Tex-NY: Home side won seven of last nine Danley games.
Balt-TB: Over is 3-0-1 in last four Torres games.
LA-Bos: Under is 6-1-1 in Blakney games this season.
Min-Clev: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Vanover games.
A’s-Chi: Road team won eight of last nine Reyburn games.
Tor-KC: Underdogs are 10-5 in last fifteen West games.
Hst-Sea: Home side won eight of last nine Ripperger games.
Interleague
Det-SD: Last three Baker games went over the total.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 40-22 AL, favorites +$18
AL @ NL– 37-36 AL, favorites -$759
Total: 77-58 AL, favorites -$741
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 40-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-27-2
Total: Over 81-53-3
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Cincinnati (30-41) at Washington (43-29)
Scheduled rotation: Castillo (0-0) vs. Strasburg (8-2), Bailey (0-0) vs. Ross (3-3), Feldman (5-5) vs. Roark (6-4)
Series price: Nationals -320, Reds +260
The Reds have lost 11 of their last 12, but they get some good news as pitcher Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season on Saturday. This is the first meeting between these clubs this season. Last season the Nationals won the series 4-3 with six of the games going 'over' the total. The total might be the angle to attack here rather than laying inflated lines with Washington or sweating a bet on the Reds to win. The Reds have gone 7-1-1 to the 'over' in their last nine road games and are 42-25-4 to the 'over' this season. Washington has gone 'over' in eight of its last 10 games.
Minnesota (36-34) at Cleveland (39-32)
Scheduled rotation: Mejia (1-3) vs. Bauer (6-5), Gibson (4-5) vs. Kluber (6-2), Santana (9-4) vs. Tomlin (4-8 )
Series price: Indians -320, Twins +260
We're going to see the Royals get back into the American League Central mix, but right now this is it for division drama in June: Minnesota vs. Cleveland. The White Sox are dead and the last place Tigers are tanking. Last weekend it was the Twins in first-place and the Indians promptly swept the four-game series and took over the division lead. They're up 2.5 games and the Twins probably believe they can return the favor. The road is where Minnesota has been at its best this season, sporting a 20-9 record as a visitor. However, the Indians basically own the Twins. They've won eight of 10 this season, including the past five meetings, and they've won 14 of 17 dating back to last season. Nine of the past 12 meetings have stayed 'under' the total in this series.
Pittsburgh (33-40) at St. Louis (33-38)
Scheduled rotation: Taillon (3-2) vs. Wainwright (7-5), Cole (5-6) vs. Lynn (5-4), Kuhl (2-6) vs. Leake (5-6)
Series price: Cardinals -155, Pirates +135
This is only the fourth encounter of the season between these two and the first three meetings in St. Louis were identical 2-1 scores won by the Cardinals. The Cards have now won six straight against the Bucs -- all at Busch Stadium. The trend that stands out is St. Louis going 'over' the total in seven of its last nine games to make them 39-30-2 to the 'over' on the season. Neither of these teams are doing anything inspiring and neither look capable of making a serious playoff run. But for this series, the Cards have the better starters going and should continue their mastery of Pittsburgh and win the series.
Philadelphia (23-48) at Arizona (46-27)
Scheduled rotation: Leiter (0-0) vs. Corbin (6-6), Lively (1-1) vs. Ray (7-3), Hellickson (5-5) vs. Greinke (8-4), Pivetta (1-3) vs. Walker (6-3)
Series price: Diamondbacks -350, Phillies +290
Arizona has won 12 of its last 14 games and are 25-9 in the last 34. Even though they have the second-best record in the National League, they're 1.5-games behind the equally hot Dodgers in the National League West. The D'Backs starting rotation has the lowest ERA in the N.L. and its hitters have the second-best OPS at .788. Arizona went into Philly last week and completed a three-game sweep in a tougher than expected series. The Snakes will toss the kitchen sink at the Phillies for this four-game series with all of their top starters taking the hill. The Phillies have lost 13 of their last 15.
Houston (50-24) at Seattle (38-37)
Scheduled rotation: Musgrove (4-6) vs. Hernandez (2-2), McCullers (6-1) vs. Gaviglio (3-1), Peacock (4-1) vs. Miranda (6-3)
Series price: Astros -135, Mariners +115
The Mariners have won five straight and are one game above .500, which puts them in second place of the AL West. Unfortunately, the clubs is 12.5 games behind the Astros but they get a boost Friday night with Felix Hernandez making his first start since April. After a mini-slump, the first-place Astros just completed a four-game sweep at Oakland to push their MLB-best road record to 27-8 this season. Going back to 2016, the Astros are on an incredible 41-16 run in their last 57 road games. Houston has won five of the seven meetings this season, including beating Hernandez on opening day. Without James Paxton starting for Seattle in this series, Houston at -135 to win two of three on the road seems cheap in this spot.
Colorado (47-28) at LA Dodgers (48-26)
Scheduled rotation: Freeland (8-4) vs. Wood (7-0), Chatwood (6-7) vs. Kershaw (10-2), Marquez (5-3) vs. McCarthy (6-3)
Series price: Dodgers -330, Rockies +250
Okay, so the Dodgers might never lose a game again. They've won seven straight and 13 of their last 14 to finally take first-place away from Colorado in the NL West. The Rockies can take it back this weekend, but it's sure going to be tough. Friday will be a tough win just because the Dodgers always win on Friday, or at least their past eight Friday's they've won. Saturday, Clayton Kershaw is on the mound and they've won nine straight behind him to make him the most profitable pitcher in baseball at +8.8 units. The Rockies come off a tough series at home where the Diamondbacks took the final two games by a combined score of 26-8. These two squads have met nine times this season with Colorado winning five of them. The 'under' has connected in 18 of the past 25 meetings, but the Dodger bats will test that as they've gone 'over' in 12 of their last 13.
Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Mariners (6-0 past six games, 18-8 past 26 overall)
The Mariners have been rolling right along, racking up six straight victories to get back above .500 and right back into the postseason conversation near the midway point of the season. The M's are also on the positive side with a plus-8 run differential, officially moving back into the black after a 13-3 thrashing of the first-place Astros on Friday. The Mariners are getting healthier, as veteran arms Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are back to near full health and that's bad news for the rest of the American League West. Sam Gaviglio, one of the pleasant surprises when the Mariners staff was banged up, takes the ball against Lance McCullers Jr. on Saturday.
Coldest team: Tigers (0-7 past seven games, 3-12 past 15 overall)
In recent seasons, the Tigers have been involved in the postseason mix and had magic numbers. Now, the only magic number fans and talking heads are counting are how many more losses skipper Brad Ausmus can endure before he is relieved of his managerial duties. The Tigers were bested 1-0 against the Padres on the left coast, dropping their seventh in a row. The Motor City Kitties have been toothless on offense, averaging just 2.9 runs per game during their losing skid while allowing 5.7 runs per outing. The Tigers turn to Anibal Sanchez to break the losing skid as this rematch of the 1984 World Series continues.
Hottest pitcher: Jason Vargas, Royals (10-3, 2.27 ERA)
The Royals hand the ball to Jason Vargas for Saturday's matinee meeting with the Blue Jays. The southpaw is showing no signs of chinks in the armor, as he continues to show out on a regular basis. He ranks third in the majors in ERA at 2.27, almost two full runs better than his career average (4.05). He has been even better at home, going 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA over seven starts at Kauffman Stadium while holding the opposition to a .227 batting average. He is also 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts under the sunshine, too.
Coldest pitcher: Marco Estrada, Blue Jays (4-5, 4.98 ERA)
The Blue Jays hand the ball to Estrada looking to get back on track after a pounding in Texas on Thursday, and a bad beat Friday night at the hands of the Royals. It won't be easy, as they'll be facing the aforementioned Vargas. Estrada has been getting tuned up this season, allowing opponents to hit .276 against him. The Jays have managed four wins in the past five outings by Estrada on grass, but they just 3-7 over his past 10 starts with four days of rest. The Jays are also a dismal 4-12 over their past 16 outings against a left-handed starter.
Biggest UNDER run: Twins (5-1 past six games, 8-2 past 10 overall)
The Twins hit the 'under' for the third consecutive game in Friday's series opener, blanking the Tribe in Cleveland. Now, they'll turn to Kyle Gibson to try and duplicate that success in a tough matchup against Corey Kluber and the Indians. The 'under' is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five on the road, 5-1 in their past six divisional games and 13-4 over their past 17 on the road against teams with a winning record. However, the 'over' has been a frequent happening in starts by Kyle Gibson, going 17-5-2 over his past 24 outings overall. The under is also 3-0-1 in Cleveland's past four outings.
Biggest OVER run: Mets (5-0 past five games, 10-1 past 11 overall)
Neither the Mets nor the Giants are playing very good ball lately, and that has meant the 'over' cashing on a regular basis. The 'over' is a surprising 6-0 in Jacob deGrom's past six road outings, 3-0-1 in his past four against teams with a losing record and 14-6 over his past 20 starts with five days of rest. The over is also 33-13-6 in the past 52 by the Mets against a right-handed starter. The over is 4-0 in San Francisco's past four home games, 4-1-2 in the past seven vs. RHP and 8-1-2 in Johnny Cueto's past 11 home starts. It's a start contrast from past seasons when Cueto and deGrom were mostly untouchable.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Rockies
The Dodgers flexed a little muscle in Friday's series opener, showing the Rockies that they're still considered the class of the National League West. Colorado has won 13 of their past 19 games overall, but they're 1-4 in their past five road games. Now, they have to contend with Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who are on an eight-game winning streak. Los Angeles has won 41 of their past 51 when Kershaw toes the slab, and they're an impressive 43-14 in their past 57 games at home. L.A. has also followed up wins with more wins, going 21-5 in their past 26 following a victory. Even more impressive is the fact the Dodgers are 14-2 in Kershaw's past 16 home outings against Colorado and 23-5 in his past 28 assignments overall against the Rox. On the flip side, the Rockies are a dismal 1-6 in Tyler Chatwood's past seven tries against Dodger Blue.
Betcha didn’t know: Kershaw coughed up a career-high four home runs over 6 1/3 innings in Monday's outing against the Mets, although he and the team were able to come away with the win. He has given up a career-high 17 home runs already this season, but is still throwing gas with 115 strikeouts over just 103 1/3 innings. As mentioned above, the Rockies haven't done much against the three-time Cy Young Award winner. He has posted an impressive 20-6 mark with a 3.13 ERA in 35 career outings against Colorado.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-250) vs. Rockies
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+115) at Padres
Biggest line move: Astros (-125 to -150) at Mariners
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Detroit Tigers -107
The Tigers and Padres are in an interleague series at Petco Park Saturday night. Anibal Sanchez is going to be starting for the Tigers against Dinelson Lamet. Both teams are likely going to miss the postseason, and it’s pretty hard to see when they will be contenders again.
Anibal Sanchez is going to be starting for the Tigers. Sanchez is likely in the last year of his 5 year contract (there is a team option for next year, but I think it’s pretty clear that the Tigers won’t pick that up), and I imagine the Tigers want Sanchez to improve a lot this season so they have an opportunity to trade him for a mid-level prospect. It’s not looking like he’s going to improve though, he has an ERA of 7.96, and has been allowing almost 3.5 homeruns per nine innings. His flyball to homerun ratio is high, but not outrageous, the biggest problem is that he has only a 31% groundball rate. Granted, he has only pitched 24 innings, but it’s still a concern that he’s more than 10% below his career average. I’m not sure that Sanchez is going to improve much. He of course won’t continue pitching with an 8 ERA, but I don’t think he will be below 4.50 either.
Pitching for the Padres is going to be Dinelson Lamet. Lamet is making just his sixth career start, and so far has struggled a little bit. He has an ERA of 7.50, but his xFIP is much better at 3.91. His strikeout rate throughout the minors was awesome, and that has continued in his MLB stint, at 35%. While this is above his projections, it speaks to the movement that he is able to get on his 95 mile 2-seamer that he throws. Even still, I like the Tigers in this game. The Padres have no offense, so I’m not really that concerned about Anibal Sanchez, even knowing how bad he’s been. The Tigers offense isn’t as great as it was in 2013, but it’s still above average, so at -107, I’m fine with the Tigers here.
MLB Underdog of the day: Pittsburgh Pirates +124
Early in the season, I was pretty high on Pittsburgh. I thought they had a good chance to compete for a wild card spot once again, and maybe even scare the Cubs early in the season. Gerrit Cole in particular, I thought had a strong chance to be a Cy Young candidate this season, even though he had a pretty disappointing 2016. The Pirates are going to be playing the Cardinals, who are going to be starting Lance Lynn.
Gerrit Cole may not quite live up to being the number one overall pick by the Pirates, but he’s still certainly a good pitcher, who has a bit of an unfair reputation. I’ve seen a lot of people talk about his inability to develop a strong breaking pitch, while simultaneously failing to put any movement on his fastball, making it pretty easy to hit. I think the second criticism there is fair, the Pirates are well known for making their pitchers add some movement to their fastballs, and discouraging 4-seamers. They had Charlie Morton throw his sinker ball much more often, Francisco Liriano moving towards a 2-seam fastball rather than 4-seam, and a number of other examples. Cole has continued depending on his 4-seamer, and it would probably help to add a moving fastball, but he’s still been pretty good. He has a strikeout rate of 7.37 per nine, this is not as high as one should expect from Cole, but it’s not shockingly low. He has managed to reduce walks, and maybe that has been a tradeoff the Pirates want him to make. I think it’s likely that Cole is going to continue to improve as the season continues.
Lance Lynn is going to be starting for the Cardinals. Lynn has been pretty good this season, with an ERA of 3.33, but his peripheral stats are much less impressive. He has a FIP of 5.31, and xFIP of 4.61. Lynn has outperformed his peripherals throughout his career, even though the Cardinals are not known to field a great defense. This probably speaks to his ability to have a good batted ball profile. The Pirates offense isn’t great, but this is great value. I think it’s entirely possible that Cole is going to outperform Lynn for the rest of the season, and Lynn will move a little closer to his peripherals. In a divisional game, I think the Cardinals are too heavy of favorites here. I don’t have any totals picks for today, so these are going to be my only picks.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-153, 9)
The Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays will tangle in a late afternoon contest at Tropicana Field. Most of the 8,000 or so fans in attendance may not even realize it, but something truly historic is on the line today and the Rays could have a big part in re-writing the record books.
The Orioles pitching staff has allowed five or more runs in an astonishing 20 consecutive baseball games. Their dubious feat has tied the 1924 Philadelphia Phillies for the all-time major league record and one more poor pitching performance today will make history.
We first noticed this run of bad pitching performances when it reached 10 games and have been relishing in their pain ever since. The streak began with a seemingly innocuous 5-2 loss versus David Price and the Boston Red Sox back on June 3. Since then it has been the perfect storm of poor starting pitching performances, terrible bullpen work, and meaningless runs in blowout victories - 20 consecutive games of five runs or more allowed.
The Rays are riding a bit of an offensive wave. They put up 15 runs in yesterday's record tying victory over the O's, they are averaging 5.48 runs per nine innings at home against right-handed pitching this season, and in their last 10 games they are averaging 7.14 R/9 vs. righties.
Dylan Bundy is the guy who will have most of the pressure on him today. Bundy will attempt to plug the leaking pitching staff but he's had a rough run of late. Over his last three starts Bundy owns a 7.63 ERA and the Orioles average runs against in his last three starts is 8.67.
If Bundy does his best on the mound today, this historic contest could come down to the O's bullpen. They had to work over five innings in yesterday's blowout loss, they have a combined ERA of 4.97 over their last 10 games, and they have allowed the third most home runs of any relief corp in major league baseball with 42.
A late inning Rays' home run to break the record would be exciting.
Pick: Team Total - Rays Over 4.5 (-135)
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (-240, 9.5)
The Minnesota Twins beat the Cleveland Indians 5-0 on Friday night at Progressive Field and the Tribe will be looking for some revenge this evening with their ace on the mound.
Corey Kluber has been great all season but he has been especially locked in over his last four starts. He has won three of his last four outings (the bullpen blew one of them) and over those four starts he owns a 1.61 ERA, 0.7143 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts to go along with only 4 walks.
Kluber's opponent on the mound today is Kyle Gibson. The Twins' right-hander has been the benefactor of some solid offensive performances this season despite his very mediocre pitching. The Twins' average runs scored in Gibson's starts is 6.58 for the season, 7.20 on the road, and 8.00 over his last three outings. He won't get that kind of run support today against Corey Kluber and a rested Indians' bullpen.
Speaking of offense. Before being shutout Friday night, the Indians were riding a wave of offensive performances that would give the Orioles' pitching staff night terrors. The Indians had scored five runs or more in nine consecutive ball games and were averaging 7.56 runs per game during that stretch.
We expect Kluber to do his thing and the Indians' bats to get back on track today in Cleveland.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (-125)
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 73-59-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Jacob Faria, Tampa Bay Rays (3-0, 1.37, $335)
Jacob Faria is only three starts into his Major League Baseball career and it appears that he has figured out this whole big-league starting pitcher thing.
Over his first three starts, Faria is 3-0 with a tidy 1.37 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while racking up 22 strikeouts to just four walks, all of his appearances have earned quality starts.
Faria and the Rays are -152 home chalk today against the whimpering Baltimore Orioles pitching staff.
Slumping: Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays (4-5, 4.98, $-158)
While Faria has figured something out, it appears as though big league hitters have figured out how to hit/smash Marco Estrada. The Blue Jays’ righty relies on his change up for outs and hitters have zeroed in, in a big way.
Over his last four starts, Estrada is 0-3 with a loathsome 14.68 ERA, 2.98 WHIP over 14.1 innings of work.
Estrada and the Blue Jays are -109 on the road against the Kansas City Royals.
Saturday's Top Trends
* The Kansas City Royals are 9-1 in Jason Vargas' last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. -105 today vs. Blue Jays.
* The Baltimore Orioles have allowed five runs or more in 20 consecutive games. +130 today @ Rays, BAL/TB Total: 9.
* The San Francisco Giants are 1-8 in their last 9 home games. -110 today vs. Mets.
* The St. Louis Cardinals are 3-13 in their last 16 vs. National League Central. -120 today vs. Pirates.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 23-5 in Clayton Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. Rockies. -255 today at home.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a 45-50 percent chance of rain/thunderstorms at SunTrust Park in Atlanta this evening where the Braves will entertain the Milwaukee Brewers. The weather in Atlanta will be awful most of the day, so we’ll wait and see if the first pitch gets pushed back.
There will be notable hitter’s winds blowing out to right-center field at Yankee Stadium for the Yankees and Rangers (12-14 MPH, Total: 11), at U.S. Cellular Field blowing out to center for the White Sox and Athletics (17 MPH, Total: 10.5), at AT&T Park the Giants host the Mets with wind blowing to center (18 MPH, Total: 7.5), Fenway Park has winds blowing out to right center with the Angels in town to play the Sox (10-12 MPH, Total: 10), and at Busch Stadium the Cardinals host the Pirates and hitters will be greeted with 10 MPH wind blowing out to right field. The total currently sits at 8.5.
As for the pitchers, Progressive Field in Cleveland, where the Twins are in town, has a 13-15 MPH wind blowing in from left field. The total is at 9.5.
Ump Of The Day
Jordan Baker will be calling balls and strikes in San Diego tonight and that isn’t promising news for Padres fans. He currently sits at the bottom of Covers Umpire Home Money Chart at $-970.00.
In 2017, the home team has won only three of Baker’s 12 appearances behind the plate. Dating back to last season the road team is 12-3 in his last 15 games behind the dish. In his last 5 games with the gear on in San Diego the Padres are 1-4.
The Detroit Tigers are in San Diego tonight and are available at -101.