MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Game three of a four-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies features a pair of left-handed starters. Dodgers trot out Hyun-Jin Ryu with a 6-3 record and 2.85 ERA. The rookie received a no-decision in his last start firing 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball in a team win vs Giants. Ryu going at least six innings in all but one start this year heads to the bump 4-1 at Dodger Stadium with a sparkling 1.81 ERA. This season Dodgers are 6-2 as a home favorite with Ryu twirling posting 4 'OVER' 4 'UNDER'. Cliff Lee sporting a 9-2 mark, 2.51 ERA gets the call for Philadelphia. The lefty tagged with a ND after tossing 8 innings of 2 run-ball in Phillie's loss to the Padres is undefeated in ten starts (7-0, 8-2 TSR). Lee puts a smart 6-1 road record, 1.92 ERA on the line when he takes the ball. Lee great at keeping the score down in road games has seen the 'Under' cash in 7 of his 10 road starts and in 11 of his last 14 on the highway. Phillies hammering Dodgers 16-1 Friday the away team has now won 10-of-11 meetings. Phillies 6-0 as road dogs with Lee, Dodgers 0-3 as home favorite of $1.05 to $1.20 and on a 2-5 skid vs a lefty starter consider the visitor.
Cardinals at A's: Preview & Pick
Sportspic.com
The world of baseball betting likes certainty when possible, and this afternoon’s interleague game between the visiting St. Louis Cardinals and Oakland Athletics offers a pitcher who has put plenty of smiles on the faces of baseball handicappers for the past few seasons.
His presence on the mound is the reason the Cardinals are a -125 MLB pick on the road, with a run total of 7, according to the current betting odds at Bovada. This contest will be the second of three games between the two postseason contenders.
That pitcher, of course, is St. Louis righthander Adam Wainwright, who has a 10-5 record on the year with a 2.31 ERA. Most notably, he is 7-1 away from Busch Stadium in 2013, and in his last four road starts, he is a spotless 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA.
In baseball handicapping, those are numbers you want to see, but there are still more: the Cardinals have won his last nine starts when the total has been under 8, and the team has lost just once in his previous 12 starts away from home.
Facing Wainwright today will be Jarrod Parker, who has put together a 6-6 mark with a 4.27 ERA. The righthander is similar to Wainwright in that he has been very successful on the road this year with a 7-1 mark. However, his 3-4 home mark is belied by the fact that he has an ERA of just 1.84.
Such solid numbers in Oakland might cause some in baseball handicapping circles to look in Parker’s direction as an MLB pick, but in his short career, the Athletics have won just once in four games when he has started in a home day game.
That shifts the focus back to Wainwright and the Cardinals, who have some additional baseball handicapping numbers in the team’s favor: St. Louis is 23-9 during Wainwright’s career when his previous start went under the run total, including eight of his last 10 starts.
Also, the team is 12-5 as a road favorite under -130, including 10 of the last 11, when Wainwright starts, and is 8-2 when those betting odds are with a run total under 8.
While there are no sure things in baseball betting, Wainwright’s success is certainly something to grab onto, especially at the low price this afternoon. Therefore, the MLB pick should be
Play St. Louis -125
Saturday's FOX Tip Sheet
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
National League
Milwaukee (32-46) at Pittsburgh (49-30)
Pittsburgh extended its winning streak to seven games on Friday by ripping Milwaukee 10-3 behind a seven-run second inning. The Pirates now own the best record in the majors and they’ve scored at least four runs in every game during this streak. Milwaukee has now dropped three straight and is 13-23 on the road this season.
To no surprise, Pittsburgh has been installed as a healthy favorite (-185) on Saturday and it will send Francisco Liriano (6-3, 2.30 ERA) to the hill. He’s earned a decision in every game and has gone 3-1 at home. As a favorite, the left-hander has gone 4-1. Speaking of Southpaws, the Brewers have been awful (7-21) against left-handers this season.
The Brewers will lean on Donovan Hand (0-0, 2.37 ERA), who will be getting his first major league start on Saturday. Out of the bullpen this season, Hand has a 3.38 ERA and opponents are hitting .294 against him.
Including Friday’s outcome, these teams have already met 11 times this season, the last series taking place at the end of May from Milwaukee. Pittsburgh holds a 7-4 edge so far, which includes a 4-1 mark in the four games played at PNC Park.
The total opened at 7½ runs and quickly jumped to 8 at most betting shops. Before Friday’s outcome, the ‘under’ was 3-0-1 in the last four games between the pair from Western Pennsylvania.
American League
Detroit (43-35) at Tampa Bay (41-39)
The Tigers snapped their three-game losing skid last night when Max Scherzer delivered a 6-3 win over the Rays. Miguel Cabrera hit two home runs while going 4 for 4 for Detroit. The Rays watched third baseman Evan Longoria (foot) leave Friday’s game and he’s ‘out’ for tonight.
Justin Verlander (8-5, 3.90 ERA) will look to capture his first win in four games when he takes the mound for Detroit on Saturday. The team’s ace hasn’t won a decision since June 7 when he beat Cleveland 7-5 at home. The Tigers have been installed as road favorites in this spot and the current form of Verlander isn’t what we’ve seen from him in the past. In his last two games, he’s given up a combined 14 hits and nine earned runs while only striking out nine. Verlander lasted five innings in each game. Fortunately for Detroit, Verlander has gone 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 career starts against the Rays and the team has produced a 9-3 overall record during that span.
Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Chris Archer (2-3, 4.21 ERA), who’s making his sixth start of the season. The second-year product hasn’t been helped with any run support this season. The Rays have scored a total of seven runs in five appearances for him, which has helped the ‘under’ cash in each game. His last performance watched him beat the Yankees 3-1 on Sunday as a short road underdog (+105).
The Rays and Tigers have met in a three-game set from Comerica Park in early June and Detroit took two of three. The ‘under’ went 2-1. The total is only 7½ runs, which is really low for an AL matchup, and bettors should note that Verlander has watched the ‘over’ go 10-5.
N.Y. Yankees (42-37) at Baltimore (45-36)
The Orioles rallied past the Yankees 4-3 on Friday after going hitless for the first five innings. New York received a great effort from CC Sabathia, who was supposed to start Saturday but was pushed up in the rotation.
David Phelps (5-4, 4.01 ERA) was expected to start last night but was a late scratch due to a mix-up between the pitching coach and front office. Phelps is 4-3 (3.63 ERA) in 10 appearances this season, but New York with a 3.63 ERA over 10 starts this season, and New York has won his last six versus AL East opponents.
Baltimore will counter with left-hander Zach Britton (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who will be making his fourth start of the season and third since he returned from a brief stint on the disable list. Since the return, he’s 1-1 and barely lasted five innings each time out. Britton has started against the Yankees six times (1-3, 7.82 ERA) and he’s been pounded in four of the matchups, three on the road. New York has gone 15-10 against left-handers this season.
Due to the pitching change, the O’s are listed as home favorites (-115) and that’s not good for Britton, who is 0-4 in his last four appearances when listed as the ‘chalk’ pitcher.
Prior to last night, the Yankees and Orioles have met six times this season and they’ve both produced 2-1 home records. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1-1 this season, which is a carryover from last year’s playoff battle when the ‘under’ went 4-1 in the five-game series.
Interleague
Cincinnati (45-35) at Texas (47-33)
Texas blanked the Reds 4-0 on Friday, recording the eighth win in nine games. Meanwhile, the Reds have lost three straight and six of seven games. Last night’s effort dropped Cincinnati to 4-7 versus the American League, while Texas improved to 7-5 versus the National League, which includes a 2-0 mark from Arlington. Also, the Reds have dropped eight straight road games in interleague play.
Cincinnati could get off the snide tonight when Texas sends Nick Tepesch (3-6, 4.60 ERA) to the mound. He hasn’t record a win since mid-May but the Rangers have gone 2-0 in his last two starts. Unfortunately for Tepesch, he hasn’t had much support. In his last five starts from Arlington, the Rangers have been held to two runs or less four times.
The Reds will counter with Mike Leake (7-3, 2.64 ERA). Cincinnati went 2-3 with Leake on the mound in April but have produced a 7-3 record in his last 10 starts. What’s better about those numbers is the Reds haven’t lost consecutive starts with Leake on the hill since his first two appearances of the season. Cincinnati did lose at Arizona 4-3 last Saturday with Leake, which could make you lean to Leake tonight. Plus, the Reds are 5-1 in his last six road starts, the one setback mentioned above.
It is hard to back Cincinnati as a road underdog (+105) when you look at its offense. They’ve been held to three runs or less in eight of their last 14 games, plus they’ve been shutout the last two contests. The ‘under’ is 10-2-2 in the last 14 for Cincinnati.
Chicago Cubs (33-45) at Seattle (35-45)
Chicago blew a three-run lead on Friday as Seattle rallied for a 5-4 win in 10 innings. Despite the loss, the Cubs have been a sound investment against the American League this season, producing an 8-4 record.
Oddsmakers sent out the Cubbies as road favorites (-120) tonight and they’ve gone 3-1 in that role this season albeit a four-game set at Miami early in the season. Still this number is based on pitching and Chicago has the edge.
Jeff Samardzija (5-7, 3.39 ERA) doesn’t have great numbers on the season but the Cubs have won his last three starts and you know you’re going to get innings when he shows up. His numbers are a tad deceiving, especially on the road where he’s gone 3-5. Still, his ERA is only 2.73 outside of Wrigley and he’s produced more strikeouts and less walks. After a rough start as a visitor, he’s gone 2-1 in his last three road appearances and he’s only given up three earned runs. Samardzija is 1-0 this season versus the AL, which includes a 14-6 victory in his latest start against Houston last Sunday.
Aaron Harang (3-7, 5.29 ERA) hasn’t been able to produce back-to-back wins for the Mariners this season and the club is coming off a 7-5 victory in his start last Saturday versus Oakland. In his six starts at Safeco Field, the Mariners have gone 4-2. Seattle is just 4-5 versus the NL. Harang has faced NL opponents twice this season and he’s gone 1-1, only allowing two earned runs in 15 innings against the Pirates and Padres.