MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, June 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Leake is 2-2, 3.09 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 4-0, 1.93 in four road starts.
Lester is 2-2, 5.18 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Cubs are 2-1 in his home starts.
Cardinals are 5-10 in their last 15 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Chicago lost six of its last seven games; over is 16-4 in last 20 games at Wrigley Field.
Diamondbacks @ Marlins
Delgado is 0-0, 2.79 in two starts (9.1 IP total— over 1-1).
Volquez is 1-6, 5.11 in his last seven starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Miami split his four home outings.
Arizona is 13-5 in its last 18 games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Miami won six of last eight games; over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games.
Giants @ Phillies
Cueto is 1-3, 4.26 in his last five starts; Giants are 4-1 in his home starts. Under is 3-1-1 in his last five starts.
Lively is making his MLB debut; he was 6-1, 2.40 in nine AAA starts this year.
Giants lost seven of last ten games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Phillies lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.
Pirates @ Mets
Glasnow is 1-3, 7.92 in his last five starts (over 7-1-2). Pirates split his four road outings.
Gsellman is 1-1, 5.82 in his last three starts (over 8-1). Mets split his last six starts.
Pirates won its last three road games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Mets lost five of last seven home games; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Braves @ Reds
Dickey is 0-2, 6.23 in his last five starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.
Feldman is 3-1, 4.25 in his last five starts; Reds are 2-4 in his home starts (under 4-2).
Braves lost five of last six games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine road games. Cincinnati lost three of its last four games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.
Dodgers @ Brewers
Hill is 2-2, 4.09 in five starts this year (under 5-0).
Garza is 0-2, 5.82 in his last three starts (under 4-3). Milwaukee is 3-1 in his home starts.
Dodgers are 6-2 in last eight games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Milwaukee is 4-10 in its last 14 games; over is 18-7 in last 25 games at Miller Park.
Rockies @ Padres
Chatwood is 1-3, 5.66 in his last four starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Colorado is 2-3 in his road starts.
Chacin is 2-0, 0.67 in four home starts (2-4, 10.57 on road). Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Padres split his four home outings.
Rockies lost four of last five games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games. San Diego won its last five games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.
American League
New York @ Toronto
Montgomery is 0-3, 5.32 in his last four starts, all of which stayed under. NY is 1-3 in his road starts.
Biagini is 0-2, 6.91 in his last three starts (under 4-1).
New York is 7-5 in its last 12 games; over is 4-0 in last four Bronx games. Blue Jays won nine of last 11 games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
Red Sox @ Orioles
Price allowed three runs in five IP (88 PT) in his first ’17 start, a loss in Chicago.
Bundy is 3-2, 3.92 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 5-1 in his home starts.
Boston won eight of last 12 games; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Red Sox games. Baltimore lost eight of its last 12 games; three of last four Oriole games went over.
White Sox @ Tigers
Gonzalez is 1-5, 6.57 in his last six starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Chicago is 2-4 in his road starts. Gonzalez is 1-1, 6.59 against Detroit this year.
Zimmerman is 1-3, 8.06 in his last four starts (over 8-2). Detroit is 4-1 in his home starts.
White Sox are 3-11 in last 14 road games; over is 8-2 in their last ten road games. Detroit is 5-8 in its last 13 games; four of their last five games went over.
Astros @ Rangers
McCullers is 4-0, 1.17 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six.
Cashner is 2-1, 2.91 in his last five starts (under 6-2-1).
Astros won their last eight games; over is 6-1-2 in their last nine road games. Texas lost eight of last ten games; last six Texas home games went over. This game will have extra tension; McCullers threw behind Napoli in a game earlier this season- not a lot of love lost.
Indians @ Royals
Carrasco is 3-0, 3.90 in his last five starts (under 8-2). Cleveland is 5-0 in his road outings.
Hammel is 0-3, 7.33 in his last four starts, three of which went over. Royals are 1-5 in his home starts.
Indians won four of last six games; under is 15-3 in their last 18 road games. Royals lost three of last five games; under is 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
Twins @ Angels
Santana is 2-1, 2.10 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under. Twins are 4-0 in his road outings.
Shoemaker is 3-1, 3.09 in his last four starts; Angels are 4-1 in his home starts (over 3-2).
Minnesota lost five of last seven games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Angels won five of last seven home games; five of Halos’ last six home games went over.
Rays @ Mariners
Cobb is 1-2, 5.54 in his last four starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. Rays are 3-3 in his road starts.
Gaviglia is 1-1, 5.00 in three starts this season (under 1-0-2).
Tampa Bay won six of last nine games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Seattle won five of last six games; over is 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
Interleague
Nationals @ A’s
Ross is 2-1, 6.18 in his five starts (over 4-1).
Mengden allowed five runs in 3.1 IP (72 PT) in his first ’17 start, a loss in Cleveland.
Washington won nine of last 11 games; four of their last six road games stayed under. A’s lost six of their last eight games. Over is 10-4 in A’s last 14 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
StL-Chi: Leake 5-5; Lester 5-6
Az-Mia: Delgado 1-1; Volquez 2-8
SF-Phil: Cueto 7-4; Lively 0-0
Pitt-NY: Glasnow 5-5; Gsellman 5-4
Atl-Cin: Dickey 5-5; Feldman 4-7
LA-Mil: Hill 2-3; Garza 4-3
Col-SD: Chatwood 4-7; Chacin 5-6
American League
NY-Tor: Montgomery 3-6; Biagini 2-3
Bos-Balt: Price 0-1; Bundy 7-4
Chi-Det: Gonzalez 5-5; Zimmerman 4-6
Hst-Tex: McCullers 9-2; Cashner 4-5
Clev-KC: Carrasco 8-2; Hammel 1-9
Minn-LA: Santana 7-4; Shoemaker 7-4
TB-Sea: Cobb 5-6; Gaviglio 2-1
Interleague
Wsh-A’s: Ross 4-1; Mengden 0-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
StL-Chi: Leake 1-10; Lester 3-11
Az-Mia: Delgado 0-2; Volquez 5-10
SF-Phil: Cueto 4-11; Lively 0-0
Pitt-NY: Glasnow 3-10; Gsellman 5-9
Atl-Cin: Dickey 4-10; Feldman 2-11
LA-Mil: Hill 0-5; Garza 1-7
Col-SD: Chatwood 1-11; Chacin 5-11
American League
NY-Tor: Montgomery 3-9; Biagini 1-5
Bos-Balt: Price 0-1; Bundy 1-11
Chi-Det: Gonzalez 3-10; Zimmerman 4-10
Hst-Tex: McCullers 2-11; Cashner 3-9
Clev-KC: Carrasco 2-10; Hammel 1-10
Minn-LA: Santana 2-11; Shoemaker 7-11
TB-Sea: Cobb 2-11; Gaviglio 1-3
Interleague
Wsh-A’s: Ross 3-5; Mengden 0-1
Umpires
National League
StL-Chi: Last five Demuth games went over.
Az-Mia: Over is 5-2 in last seven Miller games.
SF-Phil: Three of last four Lentz games went over.
Pitt-NY: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Scheurwater games.
Atl-Cin: Favorites are 10-2 in Wegner games this year.
LA-Mil: Under is 5-2 in last seven Reyburn games.
Col-SD: Four of last five Gorman games went over.
American League
NY-Tor: Under is 7-2 in Cooper games this season.
Bos-Balt: Over is 7-2-1 in Eddings games this season.
Chi-Det: Under is 8-3-3 in last 14 Bucknor games.
Hst-Tex: Over is 8-2 in Hernandez games this season.
Clev-KC: Four of last five Hickox games went over.
Minn-LA: Underdogs are 8-3 in last 11 Timmons games.
TB-Sea: Three of last four Segal games went over.
Interleague
Wsh-A’s: Six of eight Wolcott games went over the total.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 29-15 AL, favorites +$160
AL @ NL– 28-25 AL, favorites +$202
Total: 57-40 AL, favorites +$362
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 24-23-1
AL @ NL: Over 31-19-1
Total: Over 55-42-2
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Houston (38-16) at Texas (26-28)
Scheduled rotation: Keuchel (8-0) vs. Darvish (5-3), McCullers (6-1) vs. Cashner (2-4), Peacock (2-0) vs. Perez (2-5)
Series price: Astros -155, Rangers +135
Man, these Houston Astros sure have a World Series look about them.
They have the best record in baseball (38-16), the best team batting average (.277), the most runs scored and their +1.7 average margin of victory is also tops. It's the best 54-game start in club history. Best of all, they lead the majors with +17.4 units of profit for bettors. They're riding a seven-game win streak and bring their amazing show to Arlington to face to sliding Rangers.
Station Casinos has posted the Astros as -155 favorites, a number that appears to be 20 cents cheap based on the way both clubs are currently playing with Houston also getting its ace starting on Friday. Texas has lost eight of its last 11 and are two games under .500 while being 12 games behind Houston in the AL West.
Last season the Astros finished 11 games behind the Rangers and it was the Rangers who created that distance by winning 15 of the 19 meetings. Houston won three of the first four meetings this season, but Texas has been beating Houston like a drum with regularity since the Astros joined the AL West in 2013. Before this season, Texas won 73 of the previous 100 meetings, including 40 of 53 at Arlington.
The tables have certainly turned in the Lone Star state rivalry and the Astros look to be in good shape to win their first division title since 2001 when they were in the NL Central. A win in Friday's game will take them 23 games over .500, the most since 2005 when they made their only World series visit.
Something to take note of right out of the gate in this series is Friday's match-up with the AL's top Cy Young contender Dallas Keuchel (8-0, 1.81 ERA) facing Yu Darvish (5-3, 2.97). Houston doesn't mess around when they start off a series and have won the first game 14 of 17 times. In Game 3, they have gone 11-4.
Look for Houston to keep rolling and take this series.
Here's a look at a couple of other series that start on Friday that I have some interest in:
L.A. Dodgers (33-22) at Milwaukee (29-25)
Scheduled rotation: Kershaw (7-2) vs. Nelson (3-3), Hill (2-2) vs. Garza (2-2), Maeda (4-2) vs. Davies (5-3)
Series price: Dodgers -220, Brewers +180
It was just a few days ago I was talking about the Dodgers taking over their rightful claim to the NL West and the Brewers fading away as the Cubs were finally back in first-place in the NL Central. Now, it's the Dodgers a half-game behind the Rockies and Diamondbacks and the Brewers 1.5 games over St. Louis and three games up on the Cubs who have lost six straight heading into Friday's game against the Cardinals. There's a lot to like about the Brewers, beginning with +9.6 units of profit. They're also a reliable Over team at 31-21-2 with an average score of 5.0 to 4.5. Something to think about Friday is that the Brewers have beat Clayton Kershaw the past two meetings. Saturday's game backing Rich Hill against Matt Garza looks like the best bet of the series.
Colorado (34-22) at San Diego (22-33)
Scheduled rotation: Marquez (4-2) vs. Richard (3-6), Chatwood (4-7) vs. Chacin (4-4), Anderson (3-5) vs. Cosart (0-1)
Series price: Rockies -150, Padres +130
Colorado is an NL-best 19-9 on the road and back in first-place, but the Padres are puffing their chests out a little more after sweeping the world champion Cubs during the week. The Rockies fell out of first-place with a three-game losing streak at Seattle which ended Thursday behind rookie Kyle Freeland. It was only the fourth time in 17 series this season that the Rockies didn't jump out with a win in Game 1. They've been getting on it and staying on it all season. They're not going away. It's June and they're in first. The Padres have won four straight with great pitching and have stayed Under the total in seven straight. During the Under streak, San Diego pitchers have held opponents to 2.7 runs and a .206 batting average. Before thinking about betting against the Padres, think about the guy at a CG Technology sports book in Las Vegas who bet $460,000 on the Cubs to win on Wednesday. No way the Padres can sweep the Cubs, right? Padres won 2-1.
Cleveland (28-24) at Kansas City (22-30)
Scheduled rotation: Tomlin (3-6) vs. Vargas (6-3), Carrasco (5-2) vs. Hammel (1-6), Bauer (5-4) vs. Skoglund (1-0)
Series price: Indians -155, Royals +135
Kansas City took two of three last weekend at Cleveland, but they still have the worst record in the American League. The name of the game is scoring runs and nobody does it worse than Kansas City in the AL with 3.4 runs a game (Giants are MLB-worst at 3.3). Last season, the Indians went 14-5 against KC. These are the only two teams in baseball cashing better than 60 percent on the Under wagers. Cleveland leads the way at 62 percent (31-19-2) and Kansas City is right at 60 percent (30-20-2). Four of the six meetings have stayed Under this season and the Royals have stayed Under in 17 of its last 24 home games. That seems like a good theme to follow this weekend.
Saturday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Padres (5-0 past five games, 8-3 past 11 overall)
The Padres knocked off German Marquez and the Rockies in Friday's series opener at Petco Park to pick up their fifth consecutive victory. They'll look to stay hot against Tyler Chatwood, a pitcher who allowed a season-high six runs with seven hits in a loss against the Mariners on Monday. However, Chatwood did carry a no-hitter into the sixth inning the last time he faced the Padres on May 2 in San Diego, and he has a 3-1 career record at Petco. Jhoulys Chacin will look to vanquish his former team. He is 2-0 with a 0.67 ERA and .132 opponent batting average in each of his past two starts at home.
Coldest team Phillies (0-5 past five games, 6-26 past 32 overall)
The Phillies continue to struggle, and it's getting worse before it gets better. After getting swept in Miami while being outscored 21-5, they came home and were trampled by Ty Blach and the Giants by a 10-0 count on Friday. The Phillies have allowed seven or more runs in seven of the past 11 games, and nine of the past 16. That has helped the 'over' come in rather frequently, too, so remember that when hitting the window. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three, and 9-5-2 over the past 16 outings. They'll be facing an uphill battle against Johnny Cueto, as the Giants are 18-3 over his past 21 outings against a team with a losing overall record.
Hottest pitcher: Ervin Santana, Twins (7-2, 1.75 ERA)
Santana has had a scintillating season so far, posting a 1.75 ERA through 11 outings with an amazing .140 opponent batting average and microscopic 0.84 WHIP. He has allowed just 36 hits through 77 innings, and will now focus his attention on his former organization. Santana posted a career-high 17 victories in 2010 as a member of the Angels, and he won 96 games over eight seasons from 2005-12 before moving on to Kansas City in 2013. The Twins are 4-0 in Santana's past four road outings and 6-0 in his past six against teams with a losing record. He'll be facing an Angels lineup missing Mike Trout (thumb) and Cameron Maybin (oblique).
Coldest pitcher: Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers (4-4, 6.47 ERA)
Zimmermann has been shelled for 40 earned runs across 55 2/3 innings this season, serving up 16 homers with 17 walks and just 34 strikeouts while the opposition is humming along to the tune of a .308 average. His 1.56 WHIP is well above his career mark of just 1.19, and his ERA is nearly three runs higher than his career line of 3.59. He has dropped three of his past four outings and he finished May with a 1-3 mark and 6.75 ERA over 28 innings in five outings. The Tigers are 1-5 in Zimmermann's past six against divisional foes and 1-6 in his past seven against teams with a losing overall mark.
Biggest UNDER run: Mariners (6-2-2 past 10 games overall)
The 'over' hit in Friday's series opener against the Rays, as Tampa Bay piled up 12 runs. However, the 'under' has been the play in Seattle's past 10 outings. They lost table-setter Jean Segura and his then league-leading .341 batting average this week, so that's going to wreak havoc on their offense while helping the 'under' continue to come in. The under is 6-2-2 in Seattle's past 10 against teams with a winning overall record and 4-1 in their past five against American League East foes, too. The under is also 3-1-1 in their past five vs. RHP.
Biggest OVER run: Pirates (7-2-1 past 10 games overall)
The 'over' has been a frequent occurrence for the Bucs lately, including each of their past four on the road. They kicked off their road trip with a 12-7 win at N.Y. Mets on Friday for another 'over', and the over is 3-0-1 in four meetings with the Mets this season. The Pirates haven't gotten good performances from Tyler Glasnow, and they're 1-4 in his past five outings. The over has hit in each of his past four road outings, and is 7-0-2 in his past nine overall. The over is also 7-1-1 in Pittsburgh's past nine against right-handed pitching while going 6-0-1 in their past seven against teams with a losing overall mark.
Matchup to watch: Orioles vs. Red Sox
David Price takes the hill for the Red Sox against Dylan Bundy of the Orioles in a pitching matchup that looks great on paper. Price will be making his second start of the season after start the year on the disabled list due to an elbow strain. he allowed three runs and two hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision at Chicago White Sox on Monday in his season debut. He was solid against Baltimore last season, going 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA across five starts. He carries an 11-5 record and 2.88 ERA in his career against the O's. Bundy might be tired of facing the BoSox, as he faces them for the fourth time this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA in his first three outings, and he is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA across 40 1/3 innings across six outings in Oriole Park at Camden Yards this season.
Betcha didn’t know: Albert Pujols of the Angels is looking to become the ninth member of the 600-home run club. He'll look to make history against Santana, the former Angels pitcher. Pujols is 3-for-12 with a home run, two RBI and three strikeouts with a .808 OPS in his brief dealings against the right-hander. Since the start of the 2014 season Santana has faced the Halos just twice, going 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA over 13 innings with no walks and eight strikeouts.
Biggest public favorite: Cubs (-170) vs. Cardinals
Biggest public underdog: Yankees (+135) at Blue Jays
Biggest line move: White Sox (+155 to +130) at Tigers
Dave's MLB Saturday
By Dave Essler
Arizona/Miami: My first thought is that Miami saw plenty of Delgado when he was with Atlanta, and although they didn't see as much of him as I'd thought, most Marlin sticks have hit him. At the very least that precludes me from taking Arizona, which is only magnified by the fact that he hasn't thrown more than five innings in some time. Backing Volquez is also not the easiest bet to make, especially with Goldschmit being 7-14 off of him.
Cubs/Cardinals: Leake has his first marginal start this season last outing, but I might attribute some of that as being the second straight start against a hot Dodgers' lineup. However, he lost to the Cubs earlier this season (3-2) and many of the Cubs sticks have done some damage against him. Lester was also mauled by the Dodgers in his last start, but he's had great success and is in revenge mode for an earlier loss to St. Louis, and of course at home. I'm but sure anyone is worth -160 to Leake, but I do think the Cubs get this done.
Dodgers/Brewers: It's hard to fathom Rich Hill being -150 on the road. He's become basically a five inning pitcher, so any full-game Dodgers bet is predicated on their bullpen getting it done. They may, since they've got a 0.56 WHIP over the last week heading into Friday's game. Garza had actually been very good until his two last starts against the Blue Jays and the Mets. The telling thing with him is that lately his flyball rate has skyrocketed, and in this park against this team, I have to think the Dodgers do get it done. That's inasmuch as most of you know I do like home underdogs.
Colorado/San Diego: This could be the PDA (public disaster of the day). Chatwood has had a few great games this season, but the best of them were against the Phillies and the Giants. I know the Padres aren't an offensive juggernaut, but Chatwood hasn't been pitching deep and comes in with three straight 100+ pitch games. For him, that's too many. Chacin has had a couple of rough outings, but on the road. At home this season he's allowed 12 hits in 27 innings. What does (did) surprise me is that many of the Rockies haven't seen him, which should give him an advantage early.
Reds/Braves: We were on the Braves Friday night and may be again. That's just too steep for Feldman, who Atlanta has had some success against. I do know that Dickey has been getting hammered, but the Reds haven't fared well against him and with his knuckle ball it really doesn't matter if the park is small or not. When he gets hit they'll fly out of any park. After the bullpen usage Friday I am temped to fire the over, and was hoping for 9 but didn't get it. I doubt it comes down, but it's still Braves and/or over. Perhaps the Braves RL and if and when they get 4 we can't lose them both.
Pirates/Mets: Both teams woke up offensively on Friday, and with all the bullpen used the tendency would be to think they go over again. However, the total opened at 9 and is coming off of it, probably because Gsellman can be such a ground ball pitcher. I can't disagree, but he did throw 105 pitches in his last outing and the only other time he came close to that he was hammered the next time out. Yes, there is a recurring theme with pitch counts. The upside for the Mets is that Pittsburgh hasn't seen him, which would be another reason for the total coming down. The Mets just beat Glasnow, and it was the first game he didn't walk anyone. If he's going to adjust he's going to go back to walking people, which would give the Mets the advantage here. If I can trust their bullpen, the Mets it is.
Houston/Texas: I thought there would be no chance of fading McCullers against the Rangers, but there is. Texas is one team that's had his number, and his splits are Keuchel-like (until this season) in that he's just not nearly as effective on the road. Cashner has only given up more than three earned runs once this season, so if the Rangers' pen is something we can trust after Friday then Houston might be another PDA.
Boston/Baltimore: I have to like Boston here. Price pitched better than the stats look in his first start back. A couple of untimely walks and a long ball hurt him. Bundy has been solid, for the most part, but the Red Sox have seen him twice which should give them a sizable advantage early. Boston has lost two straight here and I don't like to think that teams just rebound, but here there's an advantage to Boston early, which might make this a great first-five bet.
White Sox/Tigers: It's been very hard to back Zimmerman but it's going to be harder to back Chicago and Gonzalez. For starters, he hasn't been pitching well, then add to that the fact that he just beat the Tigers at home. I don't think he can beat them again, and might look at another over.The umpire (Bucknor) and the weather are both fairly neutral - but Bucknor just did a TIgers' game with Zimmerman on the mound, an angle I like to use. Zimmerman was hit hard, so either he makes the adjustments to Bucknor (he can't) or not. Another over here, probably.
Twins/Angels: Early in the season everyone wanted to fade Santana which was costly for them. Then Ervin continues his fountain-of-youth run at inflated prices. Since his only really tough start was against the Rockies, one can reasonably assume he keeps the Angels at bay. However, any Twins bet would have to be a first-five bet for me since their bullpen has been beyond bad lately. Shoemaker hasn't been up to par lately, but he has burned me on more than one occasion. It ma well be that because the Angels aren't hitting that he feels like he has to shut people out, hence trying too hard. The Angels' pen has been pretty solid, but I can't take a side here. I keep coming back to the Twins first-five.
Rays/Mariners: Alex Cobb just isn't on my list of pitchers I like to put my money behind. He can be brilliant, but since his fly ball ratio is typically higher than I like, he can also get pummeled. I'd prefer some sort of consistency. Add to that the fact that Longoria left last nights' game and is questionable, so lineups are essential. On the flip side is the fact that when he's announced "in" or "out" it will effect the line. The Rays' pen is in regression mode and the Mariners' pen has been super, so I do like the M's here.
Nationals/A's: Harper isn't back until tomorrow, and all the Washington fade-bettors got hurt the last two games. It's almost as if it (the suspension) woke them back up, and they're bullpen has gone from horrid to spectacular over the last week, posting a 0.86 WHIP. However, now they lose Adam Eaton for two months, and we'd have to get behind Ross, which isn't an heart-warming thought. Of course backing Mengden doesn't make me all fuzzy, either, nor does backing the Oakland bullpen. What I could do is look at the over, assuming that both starters give up runs and the A's bullpen will, eventually. The total is ticking down, perhaps without Eaton and in the big park. I tend to disagree, especially in a day game where the ball might travel better.