MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Braves @ Marlins
Teheran is 1-3, 8.02 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1 in his last four).
Volquez is 0-3, 6.92 in his last three starts (under 4-1-1).
Braves lost six of their last seven games; over is 10-2-2 in their last 14 games. Miami lost seven of its last eight games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Phillies @ Nationals
Pivetta is 0-2, 5.40 in his first two MLB starts (under 1-0-1).
Roark is 1-1, 3.82 in his last five starts (over 5-1-1).
Phillies lost seven of their last eight games; they’re 2-4 in road series openers. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Nationals lost three of their last four games, all of which went over total.
Mets @ Brewers
Gsellman is 2-2, 8.22 in his six starts this season (over 6-0).
Davies is 3-0, 3.48 in his last four starts (over 6-1).
Mets won five of last eight games; over is 13-3 in their last sixteen games. Milwaukee won four of last five games; over is 13-3 in last 16 games at Miller Park.
Cubs @ Cardinals
Lester is 1-1, 5.96 in his last four starts, all of which went over.
Martinez is 2-0, 3.26 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
Cubs lost five of last seven games; over is 10-5 in their last 15 road games. St Louis won eight of its last nine games; over is 13-2-1 in their last 16 games.
Dodgers @ Rockies
Wood is 2-0, 2.81 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four starts.
Anderson is 2-3, 7.12 in seven starts this season (over 5-2).
Dodgers won six of their last seven games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Colorado won seven of its last ten games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Pirates @ Diamondbacks
Williams allowed eight runs in three IP (75 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 12-7 loss in LA.
Walker is 2-1, 3.72 in his last five starts (under 4-3).
Pirates lost their last six games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Arizona won its last three games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Reds @ Giants
Bonilla is making his first MLB start; he allowed four runs in five IP in one relief stint. He is 2-2, 5.61 in five AAA starts this season.
Moore is 0-3, 8.64 in his last five starts; under is 3-0 in his home starts.
Reds won seven of their last nine games; six of their last eight road games went over. San Francisco lost six of last eight games; under is 12-2-2 in their home games. Teams played 17 innings last nite; game ended at 12:45am local time.
American League
Houston @ New York
Fiers is 1-1, 5.93 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
Severino is 1-1, 2.75 in his last three starts (over 3-3).
Astros won 10 of last 12 games; under is 4-0 in their last four road games. New York won six of last nine games; seven of New York’s last nine home games went over total.
Twins @ Indians
Berrios is making his first ’17 start; he is 3-7, 8.02 in 14 big league starts. He is 3-0, 1.13 in six AAA starts this season.
Clevinger blanked the Royals for 5.2 innings in his first ’17 start, a 1-0 win in KC.
Twins won eight of last nine road games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Cleveland is 4-6 in its last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Looks like a bullpen game for injury-ravaged Mariners; as of midnight, they hadn’t named a starter, but it could be former Blue Jay Lawrence (0-2, 8.74 in two starts with Toronto last month)- he was claimed on waivers by Seattle Thursday.
Stroman is 2-0, 3.28 in his last four starts (under 4-3).
Mariners won four of their last six games. Over is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games. Toronto won six of last seven home games (under 5-1-1).
Rays @ Red Sox
Snell is 0-2, 5.17 in six starts this year (over 5-1).
Sale is 3-2, 2.09 in seven starts this year (under 5-2).
Tampa Bay lost four of last six games; under is 4-0-1 in their last five road games. Red Sox are 4-6 in last ten home games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
A’s @ Rangers
Gray is 0-1, 6.75 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
Martinez is 0-2, 5.55 in four starts this season (under 3-1).
Oakland won four of last six games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Rangers are 10-4 in last 14 home games; under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games. Texas won 5-2 each of last two nights, scoring four in bottom of 9th inning in both games.
Orioles @ Royals
Tillman blanked the White Sox for five innings (93 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-0 win.
Karns is 2-0, 1.46 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
Baltimore won six of its last eight games; over is 4-2 in their last six games. Royals won four of last five games. Under is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
Tigers @ Angels
Norris is 1-2, 6.98 in his last four starts (over 4-1-1).
Nolasco is 2-0, 3.52 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Detroit won three of last five games; over is 13-4-1 in their road games. Angels lost seven of last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Interleague
Padres @ White Sox
Cahill is 3-0, 2.63 in his last four starts (over 4-1 in his last five).
Covey is 0-3, 8.28 in five starts this year (over 3-1 in his last four).
San Diego lost seven of its last nine games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. White Sox lost their last six games. Over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Atl-Mia: Teheran 2-5; Volquez 1-5
Phil-Wsh: Pivetta 0-2; Roark 4-3
NY-Mil: Gsellman 4-2; Davies 4-3 (4-0 last 4)
Chi-StL: Lester 3-4; Martinez 4-3 (3-0 last 3)
LA-Col: Wood 2-3; Anderson 4-3
Pitt-Az: Williams 0-1; Walker 5-2
Cin-SF: Bonilla 0-0; Moore 1-6
American League
Hst-NY Fiers 4-2; Severino 3-3
Min-Clev: Berrios 0-0; Clevinger 1-0
Sea-Tor: unknown Stroman 3-4
TB-Bos: Snell 2-4; Sale 5-2
A’s-Tex: Gray 1-1; Martinez 1-3
Balt-KC: Tillman 1-0; Karns 3-3
Det-LAA: Norris 2-4; Nolasco 3-4
Interleague SD-Chi: Cahill 4-2 (4-0 last 4); Covey 2-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Atl-Mia: Teheran 3-7; Volquez 3-6
Phil-Wsh: Pivetta 2-2; Roark 3-7
NY-Mil: Gsellman 4-6; Davies 1-7
Chi-StL: Lester 3-7 (3 of last 3); Martinez 2-7
LA-Col: Wood 1-5; Anderson 1-7
Pitt-Az: Williams 1-1; Walker 3-7
Cin-SF: Bonilla 0-0; Moore 3-7
American League
Hst-NY Fiers 4-6; Severino 1-6
Min-Clev: Berrios 0-0; Clevinger 0-1
Sea-Tor: unknown Stroman 1-7
TB-Bos: Snell 0-6; Sale 0-7
A’s-Tex: Gray 0-2; Martinez 1-4
Balt-KC: Tillman 0-1; Karns 4-6
Det-LAA: Norris 1-6; Nolasco 3-7
Interleague SD-Chi: Cahill 2-6; Covey 3-5
Umpires
National League
Atl-Mia: Under is 5-2 in Bellino games this season.
NY-Mil: Last four Ripperger games stayed under.
Chi-StL: Last five BWelke games went over total.
LA-Col: Over is 4-1-1 in last six Miller games.
Pitt-Az: Three of last four Conroy games stayed under.
Cin-SF: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Davis games.
American League
Hst-NY: Under is 5-2 in Morales games this season.
Min-Clev: Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Bucknor games.
Sea-Tor: Over is 5-2 in Hernandez games this season.
TB-Bos: Last three Nelson games went over the total.
A’s-Tex: Under is 5-3 in Scheurwater games this season.
Balt-KC: Four of last five Timmons games went over.
Det-LAA: Over is 5-1 in Muchlinski games this season.
Interleague
SD-Chi: Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Vanover games.
Armadillosports.com
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
After five straight seasons of making the playoffs, which included a 2011 World Series Championship banner, the St. Louis Cardinals missed out last season. Things looked bleak when they started 3-9 this season which caused many to wonder if we were seeing the demise of a great franchise with the Cardinal-way being diminished, but they fought back strong going 16-5 to take over first-place in the National League Central.
The World Champion Chicago Cubs are 17-17 in fourth-place and they renew their storied rivalry with the Cardinals this weekend at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are slight -115 favorites to win the three-game series.
Before we start talking about what's wrong with the Cubs, let's talk about what's right with the Cardinals. The only problem with that is that there isn't a lot of positives to talk about other than a few players. They aren't the greatest fielding team (27 errors), they don't hit with authority (.261, 35 homers) and their bullpen has blown four of 18 save opportunities.
But what they do have is a manager in Mike Matheny that somehow makes it all works and instills the franchise pride into everyone to make it one successful unit. He's become one of my favorite managers right up there with Bruce Bochy and Buck Showalter.
The best attribute for the Cardinals so far has been its starting rotation, which at the beginning of the season was considered one of their weaknesses. Their starters have the the fifth-best ERA (3.53) and allow opponents to hit only .251. The MVP of the entire team so far has been Mike Leake (4-1), who starts Friday night against Eddie Butler. Leake has allowed only eight runs in six starts and has served up only one homer. Four of his six starts have stayed Under the total. In 23 career starts against the Cubs, Leake is 9-5 with a 3.52 ERA.
On the offensive side, 1B Matt Carpenter is leading the team with seven homers and 22, but the most exciting revelation for the team has been 3B Jedd Gyorko batting .351 with six home runs. Gyorko had a career-high 30 homers last season, but had only 59 RBIs and batted .243. His best batting average came as a rookie in 2013 at San Diego where he hit .249.
Important notes for this season begins with OF Stephen Piscotty and SS Jhonny Peralta both being placed on the 10-day disabled list on Wednesday. OF Dexter Fowler is also dealing with a shoulder injury and could possibly miss time against his former team this weekend. The combination of the trio is worth up to 10 cents to the team rating.
As for the Cubs, they'll be just fine. They'll make the playoffs again and make a serious push to win back-to-back titles. Some of the key components like Jake Arrieta (5.35 ERA), Kyle Schwarder (.195), Anthony Rizzo (.218), Addison Russell (.227) and Ben Zobrist (.222) have struggled with consistency, but there's no need to sound the alarm just yet. For bettors, they've been the third worst bet in baseball at -8.3 units of profit, just ahead of Toronto (-8.8 ) and San Francisco (-14.1).
The bottom line for the Cubs is that repeating is tough. We haven't seen any team do it since 2000 with the Yankees and we haven't seen a National League team do it since the 1976 Reds. Those are two epic teams with rosters that stand the test of time. Are the Cubs in that class? I really believe they can be, but I like their chances better if they get some more bullpen help. Everything else in Wrigleyville should iron itself over the summer.
Scheduled Rotation: Eddie Butler vs. Mike Leake, Jon Lester vs. Carlos Martinez, Jake Arrieta vs. Adam Wainwright
Here's a look at the prices and rotations of series that begin on Friday:
Atlanta (11-20) at Miami (13-20)
Series Price: Marlins -155, Braves +135
Scheduled Rotation: Foltynewicz(0-4) vs. Urena (1-0), Teheran (2-3) vs. Volquez (0-4), Dickey (3-2) vs. Straily (1-3)
Betting Notes: Braves are 5-11 in last 16 road games; the 'over' is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings.
Philadelphia (13-19) at Washington (22-12)
Series Price: Nationals -335, Phillies +270
Scheduled Rotation: Pivetta (0-2) vs. Roark (3-1), Velasquez (2-3) vs. Gonzalez (3-1), Hellickson (4-1) vs. Scherzer (4-2)
Betting Notes: Phillies have gone 'over' in 10 of their past 11 road games; Nationals are 17-5 in past 22 meetings.
NY Mets (16-17) at Milwaukee (18-17)
Series Price: Mets -120, Brewers +100
Scheduled Rotation: Harvey (2-2) vs. Garza (1-0), Gsellman (2-2) vs. Davies (3-2), deGrom (2-1) vs. Peralta (4-2)
Betting Notes: Brewers have gone 'over' in 12 of past 15 home games; Mets have won six of the past eight meetings.
Minnesota (17-14) at Cleveland (18-15)
Series Price: Indians -260, Twins +210
Scheduled Rotation: Santana (5-1) vs. Tomlin (2-3), Berrios (0-0) vs. Clevinger (1-0), Santaigo (4-1) vs. Bauer (2-4)
Betting Notes: Fifteen of the past 20 meetings in Cleveland have gone 'over' the total. However, Cleveland has been the best 'under' team in baseball (21-10-2).
Tampa Bay (17-20) at Boston (18-16)
Series Price: Red Sox -235, Rays +195
Scheduled Rotation: Cobb (2-3) vs. Porcello (2-4), Snell (0-3) vs. Sale (3-2), Andriese (2-1) vs. Pomeranz (3-2)
Betting Notes: Tampa Bay has only won twice in its past 10 games at Fenway Park.
Oakland (16-18) at Texas (16-20)
Series Price: Rangers -145, Athletics +125
Scheduled Rotation: Hahn (1-2) vs. Cashner (0-3), Gray (0-1) vs. Martinez (0-2), Graveman (2-2) vs. Griffin (4-0)
Betting Notes: Oakland has won twice in its last 10 road games; Texas has stayed 'under' in 12 of its last 14 home games.
Baltimore (22-11) at Kansas City (13-21)
Series Price: Orioles -145, Royals +125
Scheduled Rotation: Bundy (5-1) vs. Duffy (2-3), Tillman (1-0) vs. Karns (2-2), Gausman (2-3) vs. Young (0-0)
Betting Notes: Baltimore has won 23 of Chris Tillman's last 31 starts and the 'under' has connected in 17 of those wins, including his first start this season on Sunday.
San Diego (13-23) at Chicago White Sox (15-17)
Series Price: White Sox -190, Padres +165
Scheduled Rotation: Chacin (3-3) vs. Gonzalez (3-2), Cahill (3-2) vs. Covey (0-3), Weaver (0-4) vs. Quintana (2-5)
Betting Notes: The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games.