MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Phillies
Cole is making his first ’17 start; he is 1-2, 5.29 in nine MLB starts, 1-1, 6.63 in four AAA starts this season.
Velasquez is 2-0, 3.18 in his last two starts (over 5-0).
Washington won four of its last five games; five of their last six road games went over. Phillies lost their last four games, but won five of last six at home. Over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Brewers @ Pirates
Garza is 1-0, 5.91 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
GCole is 1-2, 2.88 in his last four starts (under 5-1).
Milwaukee won three of its last five games; over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Pirates lost four of last six games. Over is 8-3-2 in their home games.
Cardinals @ Braves
Leake is 3-0, 1.42 in his last four starts (under 3-2).
Teheran is 1-2, 8.10 in his last there starts (over 4-1 in last five).
Cardinals lost three of last five games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Braves lost six of last seven home games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
Marlins @ Mets
Despaigne is making his first ’17 start; he is 9-18, 4.89 in 34 MLB starts (with SD). He is 0-1, 2.49 in five AAA starts this year.
Gsellman is 1-2, 8.77 in five starts this year (over 5-0).
Miami lost eight of last ten games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. New York won five of last seven overall but lost six of last seven at home- their last ten games went over.
Giants @ Reds
Blach is 0-1, 1.50 in two starts this year (under 2-0).
Garrett is 2-2, 4.80 in five starts (one bad start inflates the ERA- under 3-2).
San Francisco lost six of last eight on road; over is 11-5 in their road games. Reds won five of their last six games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games.
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Corbin is 1-0, 1.35 in his last two starts (over 3-3).
TAnderson is 0-3, 8.39 in his last five starts (over 5-1).
Arizona lost four of its last six road games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Colorado lost four games in row at home. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games at Coors.
Dodgers @ Padres
Kershaw is 3-1, 2.54 in his last four starts (over 3-3).
Richard is 1-3, 5.86 in his last five starts (under 4-2).
Dodgers won six of last eight games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. San Diego lost five of last six at home; Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.
American League
White Sox @ Orioles
Covey is 0-2, 9.19 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Bundy is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts (under 4-2).
Chicago lost four of its last six games; four of their last five games stayed under. Orioles are 9-3 at home; under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Blue Jays @ Rays
Estrada is 1-0, 1.04 in his last four starts (over 3-3).
Odorizzi is 1-1, 4.00 in four starts this year (under 3-1).
Blue Jays lost four of last six on road; their last seven away games went over. Rays lost three of last four home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games- over is 7-1 in their last eight home tilts.
Red Sox @ Twins
Porcello is 0-4, 6.00 in his last four starts (under 4-2).
Tepesch is 9-18, 4.68 in 40 MLB starts (mostly with Rangers in 2013-14); he is 1-1, 2.00 in three AAA starts this year.
Red Sox are 5-8 in last 13 games; their last six road games stayed under the total. Minnesota won seven of its last nine games. Over is 8-2-2 in their last 12 games.
Indians @ Royals
Tomlin is 2-3, 8.87 in five starts this year (over 4-1).
Vargas is 4-1, 1.71 in five starts this year (under 4-1).
Indians lost four of last five road games; last seven Indian road games stayed under. Royals are 3-11 in last 14 games; under is 11-4 in their home games.
Tigers @ A’s
Zimmerman is 3-1, 6.18 in five starts this year (over 4-1).
Hahn is 1-2, 2.77 in four starts this year (over 2-2).
Detroit won four of its last five games; over is 9-2-1 in their road games. Oakland lost nine of last 11 games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Astros @ Angels
McCullers is 2-1, 4.08 in six starts this year (over 3-3).
Ramirez is 1-0, 1.46 in his last two starts (under 4-0).
Astros won five of last six games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Angels won four of their last five at home; under is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Rangers @ Mariners
Perez is 0-3, 6.75 in his last three starts (under 5-1).
DeJong allowed six runs n 2.2 IP in his first ’17 start, a 12-4 loss in Cleveland.
Rangers lost five of last seven on road; over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Mariners are 7-3 in last ten home games; four of last five Mariner games went over total.
Interleague
Bronx @ Cubs
Montoomery is 1-1, 4.57 in four starts this year (over 3-1).
BAnderson is 1-1, 13.09 in his last three starts (last three went over).
Bronx won seven of last nine games; they’re 6-6 on road. Six of last seven New York games went over. Cubs won five of last seven home games; over is 14-3 in last 17 Chicago games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Phil: AJCole 0-0: Velasquez 2-3
Mil-Pitt: Garza 2-0; GCole 2-4
StL-Atl: Leake 2-4; Teheran 2-4
Mia-NY: Despaigne 0-0; Gsellman 3-2
SF-Cin: Blach 0-2; Garrrett 3-2
Az-Colo: Corbin 3-3; Anderson 3-3
LA-SD: Kershaw 4-2; Richard 3-3
American League
Chi-Balt: Covey 2-2; Bundy 5-1
Tor-TB: Estrada 3-3; Odorizzi 2-2
Bos-Minn: Porcello 2-4; Tepesch 0-0
Clev-KC: Tomlin 2-3; Vargas 4-1
Det-A’s: Zimmerman 3-2; Hahn 1-3
Hst-LAA: McCullers 5-1; Ramirez 2-2
Tex-Sea: Perez 1-5; DeJong 0-1
Interleague
NYY-Cubs: Montgomery 2-2; BAnderson 3-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Wsh-Phil: AJCole 0-0: Velasquez 3-5
Mil-Pitt: Garza 1-2; GCole 1-5
StL-Atl: Leake 1-5; Teheran 2-6
Mia-NY: Despaigne 0-0; Gsellman 4-5
SF-Cin: Blach 0-2; Garrrett 2-5
Az-Colo: Corbin 2-6; Anderson 1-6
LA-SD: Kershaw 4-6; Richard 1-6
American League
Chi-Balt: Covey 2-4; Bundy 0-6
Tor-TB: Estrada 1-6; Odorizzi 2-4
Bos-Minn: Porcello 1-5; Tepesch 0-0
Clev-KC: Tomlin 2-5; Vargas 0-5
Det-A’s: Zimmerman 3-5; Hahn 2-4
Hst-LAA: McCullers 1-6; Ramirez 3-4
Tex-Sea: Perez 2-6; DeJong 1-1
Interleague
NYY-Cubs: Montgomery 2-4; BAnderson 3-5
Umpires
National League
StL-Atl: All four Tichenor games stayed under total.
Mil-Pitt: Underdogs are 3-1 in Knight games this year.
Wsh-Phil: Three of last four Reyburn games stayed under.
Mia-NY: Favorites won last five Whitson games.
SF-Cin: Four of five Nauert games stayed under.
Az-Col: Over is 3-1 in Carapazza games this year.
LA-SD: Favorites are 10-2 in last dozen Basner games.
American League
Tor-TB: Over is 3-1-1 in Rackley games this year.
Bos-Min: Under is 3-1 in last four Gorman games.
Cle-KC: All three Hoberg games this year went over.
Chi-Balt: Last four O’Nora games went over total.
Det-A’s: Under is 4-1 in Morales games this year.
Hst-LA: Under is 4-2 in Culbreth games this year.
Tex-Sea: Over is 4-2 in Winters games this year.
Interleague
NY-Chi: Road team won all four Porter games this year.
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MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies' handing the ball to Vince Velasquez are in a mound of trouble when they square off vs visiting Nationals. Phillies have won just 3 of his last 14 trips to the mound including 1 of 8 in front of the home audience.
Additionally, Phillies have not been able to solve Nationals here at at Citizens Bank Park. In sixteen meetings at this venue the result is 3 wins, 13 losses. According to current odds at Sports Interaction Nationals are -$105 road favorites.
Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The Royals (-9.6 units), Giants (-9.1) and Blue Jays (-12.6) have been the worst bets of the season so far. But the good news is that one of them should soon bounce back and be undervalued in price for a few weeks. It's Toronto's starting rotation that stands out. They have the ability to carry them while waiting for the bats to wake up.
Kansas City averages an MLB-low 2.9 runs a game and get a visit from Cleveland this weekend. The Royals have washed off the strench of losing nine straight and have won two of their last four. The Royals are second-best at 16-9-2 to the Under this season. More on this series below.
The best Under team in baseball is surprisingly the Red Sox at 18-9-1. Boston led MLB in runs scored last season, but are averaging just 3.9 runs a game this season. The good new is they allow only 3.8. They go to Minnesota to play the Twins who won't go away in the AL Central and sit only a half-game behind first-place.
The Giants get a chance to make up some ground in the standings at Cincinnati.
Here's a look at my favorites match-ups of the weekend:
Yankees (17-9) at Cubs (16-12)
Scheduled rotation: Pineda (3-1) vs. Hendricks (2-1), Montgomery (1-1) vs. Anderson (2-1), Severino (2-2) vs. Lester (1-1)
Series price: Cubs -160
This weekend's Yankees-Cubs three-game set at Wrigley Field has everything needed to put it in the epic May series category. I don't know who else is in that category, but this one seems like a great place charter member. Here's some qualifying questions:
Does it have an iconic setting? Does it feature the most recent World Series Champion that waited 108 years in between titles going against an iconic franchise with the most World Series titles (27)? Does it feature the reigning NL MVP against a rookie leading the majors in home runs? And did Babe Ruth call a home run shot in a World Series at the same park?
I can put a check mark next to each of those on the check list, and yes, I am very excited about the series. Everything from the uniforms to both teams being in first-place has me looking forward to watching every game.
Astros (19-10) at Angels (15-15)
Scheduled rotation: Keuchel (5-0) vs. Chavez (2-4), McCullers (2-1) vs. Ramirez (3-2), Fiers (0-1) vs. Shoemaker
Series Price: Astros -160
The Angels return home after a six game road trip (3-3) where they lost the last two at Seattle. Houston dropped Thursday's homestand finale to the Rangers, but took three of four in the series to extend its first-place lead in the AL West over the Angels to 4.5 games. The Angels are 16-5 in their last 21 home games, but Houston is 16-6 in its last 22 meetings. Houston is currently on an 8-2 Over run on the road.
I'll be rooting for the Angels to keep its home roll going because watching baseball in a Las Vegas sports book is just better at night when the Dodgers and Angels matter. It's a livelier, more festive atmosphere and I enjoy that. Having said that, Friday looks impossible against Keuchel who looking Cy Youngish again.
Indians (15-12) at Royals (9-18 )
Scheduled rotation: Salazar (2-2) vs. Hammel (0-3), Tomlin (2-3) vs. Vargas (4-1), Bauer (2-3) vs. Duffy (2-2)
Series price: Indians -150
The best thing about this series looks to be betting all the games Under. The Royals can't score and the Indians are on a 12-3-1 Under run. Lately, betting against the Royals has been a winning move as they're on a 2-11 run. And then of course we have some recent history with the Indians winning the past eight meetings. Eventually some on the Royals is going start hitting the ball and they'll score some runs. If I thought I could get any production from the KC lineup, I'd side with them Saturday and Sunday. Under is the word in this series.
Diamondbacks (17-13) at Rockies (18-11)
Scheduled rotation: Greinke (2-2) vs. Anderson (1-3), Corbin (2-3) vs. Marquez (0-1), Walker (3-1) vs. Chatwood (2-4)
Series price: Rockies -130
If your looking to bet baseball's most profitable pitcher, Taijuan Walker is your guy Sunday afternoon at Coors Field. Arizona has gone 5-1 behind Walker giving him +5.5 units. The Snakes have won his last four starts. He missed the Rockies series last weekend at Chase Field, where Colorado took two-of-three. Arizona has the fortune of missing rookie lefthander Kyle Freeland (+4.8 units) in this series after losing 3-1 to him last week. Colorado leads MLB with +8.7 units of profit overall at 17-11. First-place in the NL West and I give Arizona an edge in all three pitching match-ups which tells me taking +110 with them in the series is a good deal.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (+130, 7.5)
The Dodgers send ace to the mound in Clayton Kershaw in hope of evening up their series against the Padres in San Diego after dropping the opener 8-2 on Friday night.
Kershaw has definitely spoiled us over the years. To the point where in season in which he is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA with 44 strikeouts and just three, count ‘em, three walks, is considered a bit of a down year.
The Dodgers ace has also dominated the Padres over the years, going 15-6 with a 2.03 ERA in 30 career starts. It’s been even worse in recently. Since 2014, he is 6-0 in nine starts with a 1.14 ERA with 87 strikeouts and just one walk.
So, yeah, Kershaw is pretty good. Oh, did we mention he also loves pitching in pitcher friendly PetCo Park, where the Dodgers are 7-1 in his last eight starts there. And one more thing, he’s facing the Padres, one of the worst hitting teams in baseball.
Sorry for the rant, but even with the crazy chalk, it's worth it.
Pick: Clayton… err Dodgers -275
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-155, 8 )
The Pirates host the division rival Brewers for a three game set this weekend and after dropping the opener 4-0 to the Buccos, it doesn’t get any easier for the Brew Crew as they’ll have to face off against ace Gerrit Cole, whom is starting to find is groove.
Despite the team dropping Cole’s last three starts, the Pirates righty is starting to feel it. In those three starts he has pitched to a 1.89 ERA, a 0.842 WHIP and has racked up 23 strikeouts to just three walks.
Additionally, the up-and-down Pirates lineup will be facing off against Matt Garza, who is making just his third start of the season and he has had some trouble with Pittsburgh in the past.
The Pirates are 4-1 in the last five games the Brewers’ right-hander has started against them, pitching to a 5.33 ERA.
Pittsburgh’s bats have been inconsistent this season, but they should be able to get the job done here.
Pick: Pirates -155
Yesterday:1-1
Season: 23-20-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays (1-1, 2.43 ERA, $86)
It has been a disappointing start to the year for the Toronto Blue Jays. After advancing to the ALCS each of the last two year, the Jays are just 10-19 this season, but you can't blame Marco Estrada.
In the methodical right-handers last four starts he has pitched to a 1.04 ERA, striking out 29 batters, while walking just six. He takes the mound Saturday in Tampa Bay, where the Jays are currently -105.
Slumping: Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies (1-3, 7.71 ERA, $27)
While the Rockies have been enjoying success this season, it hasn't been shared with Anderson. The lefty has been roughed up in his last two outings in particular.
Anderson has allowed 10 earned runs on 13 hits in 10.2 innings of work in those two starts, allowing four home runs in the process. In fact, Anderson has allowed a round-tripper in each of his six starts this season. Colorado is currently a -126 home fave against the visiting Diamondbacks.
Saturday's Top Trends
* Under is 7-0 in Jason Vargas' last seven home starts. Indians @ Royals O/U: 8.
* Over is 7-0 in Cubs last seven games following a loss. Yankees @ Cubs O/U: 7.5.
* Diamondbacks are 0-7 in Patrick Corbin's last seven road starts. D-backs +116 @ Rockies.
* Braves are 0-7 in Julio Teheran's last seven Saturday starts. Braves -106 vs. Cardinals.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Saturday’s forecast is looking pretty ideal for baseball fans, but there is some overcast skies and notable wind in New York for today’s game between the Marlins and Mets. The forecast is calling for moderate 14-16 mile per hour hitters wind out towards left field during the game. The total is currently 9.
In Oakland, the Athletics hosting the Detroit Tigers at Oakland Alameda Coliseum, where winds will be gusting 16 miles per hour towards out to right field at first pitch. The total is currently 8.5.
Ump of the Day
Paul Nauert: Nauert behind the plate has been good news for home teams through the first weeks of the season. The home teams are sporting a 5-0 record in games he has been behind the plate. If you include last season home teams are 11-1 in his last 12 when Nauert is calling balls and strikes. His home team money total is already at $524 in 2017. Naurent will be officiating this afternoon’s Giants-Reds game from the Great American Ball Park and the home team is 4-1 in the last five games involving the Giants or Reds.