MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, October 21st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NY YANKEES (98 - 76) at HOUSTON (107 - 65) - 8:00 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 19-32 (-13.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 107-65 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MORTON is 29-12 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 24-15 (+11.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 53-36 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SABATHIA is 21-9 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 15-8 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 11-4 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 254-303 (-76.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 62-55 (-20.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-25 (-12.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 8-5 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.7 Units)
C.C. SABATHIA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 3-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)
CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 8.26 and a WHIP of 1.408.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)
NY YANKEES @ HOUSTON
NY Yankees is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
StatFox Super Situations
NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (HOUSTON) after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts 162-86 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 59.0 units ) 11-8 this year. ( 57.9% | 1.2 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
NY YANKEES at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 98-50 (+19.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was: HOUSTON (5.6) , OPPONENT (4.1)
MLB Playoffs
New York @ Houston
Astros are 8-5 against New York this season, winning five of six at home. Home team won the first six games in this series.
Sabathia is 4-0, 2.97 in his last six starts; under is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. New York is 10-6 in his road starts this year. Sabathia blanked Houston for six innings Monday, his only start against the Astros this year. He is 10-5, 4.24 in 22 career playoff games (21 starts).
Morton is 0-1, 10.13 in two playoff starts this month, after going 3-0, 1.96 in his last three regular season starts. Astros are 11-5 in his home starts this season. Morton is 1-1, 10.61 vs New York this season; he is 0-2, 7.24 in three career playoff starts.
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
New York at Houston (-125); Total: 8
BetOnline and Pinnacle were the first to put up morning numbers for Game 7, with the host Astros basically getting the home field advantage adjustment off of the -110 starting point. Just like we all envisioned, it will be CC Sabathia against Charlie Morton as far as starting pitchers go for the right to go to the World Series. Oh, baseball. Sabathia was part of the 2009 World Series-winning Yankees. Charlie Morton appeared in the 2013 playoffs for the Pirates and has two starts this season. That’s it over his long MLB career that has been marred by injuries. Sabathia is the active leader in innings pitched.
Sabathia has been really spectacular in the playoffs and has provided a huge lift for the Yankees. Like I’ve talked about, stuff guys don’t always get it done in the postseason. Sabathia’s command isn’t the greatest, but he’s had excellent command in the playoffs and has that savvy veteran knowhow that has allowed him to get through 15.2 innings of work with just four earned runs allowed on 11 hits. The most surprising thing is that Sabathia has 19 strikeouts in his 15.2 innings of work. He’s also walked seven, so we’ll have to see what he brings to the table in this one.
The box score will show that Charlie Morton struggled in his only start in this series. He wound up with seven runs allowed on six hits over just 3.2 innings of work. The stuff, however, looked really good for Morton. He had an electric fastball and good secondaries. He fell victim to some low-percentage balls in play that found grass and gave up a backbreaking three-run home run to Todd Frazier, which looked like a pretty routine fly ball. Two of the runs from Aaron Judge’s home run served up by Will Harris were charged to Morton. It wasn’t nearly as bad of a start as it looked and that is particularly noteworthy because I imagine we’ll see some people fade Morton simply because of that start. That would ignore the 3.62 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP that he posted over 146.2 innings in the regular season.
Now, Morton also didn’t look great in his start against Boston with two runs allowed on seven hits in 4.1 innings of work. He did strike out six in that one, but he really hasn’t had much BABIP luck in the postseason over a small sample size of eight innings. Sabathia, on the other hand, has. Is that predictive in a one-game sample? Not really, but Morton really hasn’t been as bad as the numbers look and Sabathia has probably overachieved a bit.
In any event, this game probably won’t be about the two starters. It’s Game 7. Everybody is available. I’m sure Justin Verlander, who shoved again last night, will make himself available for an inning. Dallas Keuchel will be ready to go. Luis Severino is about the only pitcher unavailable in this game. I’d bet we’d see Masahiro Tanaka available for even an inning if necessary. One thing that does worry me is that David Robertson has been the fireman for the Yankees in these playoffs. He has pitched in some extremely high-leverage spots and has had a lot of success. He was awful on Friday night. He was limited to 12 pitches though while allowing four runs on four hits without recording an out, so he is available, but I wonder what his mental state is at this point.
This game will be about bullpens. Houston’s has been a mess. Ken Giles threw 23 pitches for whatever reason last night. Brad Peacock was the first guy called upon in a 3-0 game before Houston put it away, which is pretty telling about AJ Hinch’s confidence level in those guys. Peacock gave up an enormous home run to Aaron Judge, but otherwise worked a decent inning. Tommy Kahnle got a day off, which is big because he has been a workhorse for Joe Girardi in this series. With two days off because of Thursday’s travel day, he’s in good shape.
In typical MLB playoff fashion, live betting will be the way to go here. If you’re hellbent on starting the game with a position, that position should probably be the Yankees, though they are 1-5 away from Yankee Stadium in these playoffs for whatever reason. If the Yankees get out to a lead, you won’t catch another plus money price with their bullpen, hence the start. I think this could be a game with big, emotional momentum swings both ways. Morton has the better stuff in the pitching matchup, and I think the line swings in Houston’s favor as a result, but the managers are going to be very aggressive here and I think Girardi has more trustworthy weapons than Hinch.
Saturday's ALCS Playoff Betting Preview
Covers.com
New York Yankees at Houston Astros (NYY +117, HOU -127, O/U 8 )
The Houston Astros have yet to lose on their home field this postseason and have been difficult to beat at Minute Maid Park of late, while the New York Yankees have lapped the field when it comes to historical playoff success. After watching their offense get back on track in a critical Game 6 victory, the Astros host the Yankees for Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday.
Brian McCann broke out of an 0-for-20 slump on Friday with an RBI double in the fifth inning to break a scoreless tie and Jose Altuve notched his first hit in four games moments later, delivering a two-run single as Houston improved to 5-0 at home during the playoffs with a 7-1 win. The Astros, who scored a total of five runs while losing all three games in New York earlier in the week, have won 16 of their last 18 contests at Minute Maid Park dating back to the regular season. Aaron Judge homered late to help the Yankees avoid being shut out following a seven-inning scoreless gem from Justin Verlander. New York likely will need to score more than one run in Houston for the first time this series if it hopes to claim its major league-best 41st pennant - the Yankees already have twice as many as the next-closest team - and face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series.
INJURY REPORT:
Yankees - SP Luis Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP Michael Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).
Astros - CF Jake Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP David Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP Jandel Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).
PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees LH CC Sabathia (1-0, 2.30 ERA) vs. Astros RH Charlie Morton (0-1, 10.13)
Sabathia improved to 10-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 13 turns following a New York loss by allowing three hits over six scoreless frames at home in Monday's Game 3 victory. The outing marked the first time a pitcher 37 years or older blanked the opposition over six innings in a postseason start since Pedro Martinez did so in 2009. It also was Sabathia's first outing versus the Astros this season and first at home this postseason after yielding six runs - four earned - in two starts spanning 9 2/3 innings in Cleveland during the AL Division Series.
Morton lasted only 3 2/3 innings in his head-to-head showdown with Sabathia in Game 3, allowing seven runs and six hits - including a three-run blast by Todd Frazier. The 33-year-old New Jersey native, who is getting the nod over Lance McCullers Jr., will be making only his fourth career postseason start. Morton, who went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 2017, held opponents to a .217 batting average at Minute Maid Park during the regular season while going 10-3 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 home turns.
TRENDS:
* Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 League Championship road games.
* Yankees are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
* Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 League Championship home games.
* Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff home games.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Astros at a rate of 61 percent and the Over is picking up 67 percent of the totals action.