MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 26

Red Sox at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (-104, 7)

Series tied 1-1.

The Boston Red Sox are even in the World Series thanks in large part to the Nos. 4-5 lineup combination of David Ortiz and Mike Napoli. When the St. Louis Cardinals host the Red Sox in Game 3 on Saturday, one of those two will have to sit on the bench. The Red Sox lose the designated hitter in the National League park and alternated between Napoli and Ortiz at first base during interleague play in the regular season.

Ortiz homered in each of the first two games and Napoli provided the key hit - a three-run double - in Boston's 8-1 victory in Game 1. Ortiz’s two-run blast in Game 2 accounted for the only runs the Red Sox managed in a 4-2 loss, during which some questions popped up about their bullpen. Craig Breslow allowed a pair of inherited runners to score and committed an error during the three-run seventh inning while the St. Louis bullpen, headlined by rookies Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, dominated.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Jake Peavy (0-1, 8.31 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (0-1, 4.41)

Peavy put together a strong start in the clinching game of the American League Division Series at Tampa Bay but was lit up for seven runs on five hits and three walks in three innings at Detroit in the ALCS. The 32-year-old is 0-3 with a 10.31 ERA in four career postseason starts. Peavy owns a history against the Cardinals from when he was in the National League and is 1-3 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts at St. Louis.

Kelly surrendered four earned runs in five innings at Los Angeles in the NLCS to suffer his lone postseason setback. The 25-year-old features a power sinker but does not work deep into games, topping out at six innings and 95 pitches in three postseason starts. Kelly posted worse numbers at home than on the road in the regular season, going 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 18 games - eight starts - in St. Louis.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 World Series games.
* Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven World Series home games.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in Peavy's last five starts as a favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Dana DeMuth

* Red Sox are 17-4 in their last 21 games with DeMuth behind home plate.
* Home team is 4-1 in DeMuth's last five interleague games behind home plate.
* Under is 6-1-1 in DeMuth's last eight games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox OF Daniel Nava could get his first start of the series on Saturday, replacing Jonny Gomes.

2. Cardinals 1B Allen Craig (foot) served as DH in Boston but will likely find himself back on the bench in St. Louis.

3. Ortiz is tied for seventh on the all-time list with 17 postseason home runs and matched a franchise record with his fifth of the 2013 playoffs in Game 2

World Series Game 3

MLB

Peavy is 1-1, 6.15 in his last six starts; four of his last six road starts went over the total. He is 0-3, 10.31 in four postseason starts, allowing 21 runs in 18.1 IP. Peavy is 3-4, 4.29 in nine career starts against the Cardinals, but is 20-12, 3.00 in 37 career interleague games.

Kelly is 0-1, 4.96 in three postseason starts; Cardinals are 6-4 in his last ten starts (4-1 in last five at home), over is 6-2-1 in his last nine.

Boston won five of last seven games; they're 3-2 on road in playoffs.

St Louis won seven of last ten games; they've allowed nine runs in their eight postseason wins, 29 in five losses. Cardinals are 12-1 in their last 13 games at home- three of their last four games went over the total.

Armadillosports.com

World Series Game 3 Odds and Pick
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

The biggest Game 3 (8:07 p.m. ET, FOX) story line here in Las Vegas is how the Red Sox can be a -110 favorite with Jake Peavy on the mound and without the designated hitter. David Ortiz will be shifted from his normal role as DH to first base, which means that their normal first baseman Mike Napoli will have to ride the bench and wait for key pinch-hitting opportunities. Boston will now try to improve upon their .188 World Series batting average with essentially one hand tied behind their back.

Putting Napoli on the bench is a big deal. Not only was he the No. 2 power source behind Ortiz with 23 homers and 92 RBIs during the regular season, but he's also a big enough threat in the lineup to force pitchers to give Ortiz, who bats in front of Napoli, something to hit. And that doesn't even begin to tell half the impact of Napoli, who has proven to be a valuable player in the postseason.

Just ask the 2011 Cardinals how good Napoli is. They faced Napoli in that year's World Series while he was a member of the Texas Rangers. In seven games, Napoli had two homers among seven hits for a .350 average along with 10 RBIs - numbers that would have likely made him the MVP had David Freese and the Cards not come back to win Games 6 and 7 at Busch Stadium.

Napoli played catcher and first base during the 2011 Fall Classic, but because he didn't catch one game for the Red Sox this season, manager John Farrell thought it best for the team not to put him in that position now.

Farrell must not have had high expectations of making the World Series, or didn't think about the possible situation, because a logical approach would have seen Napoli receive some playing time behind the dish in late meaningless September games.

The Red Sox' hitting woes and the loss of Napoli in the lineup is only half the problem for Boston tonight. The other half is Jake Peavy, who not only is in the midst of a shaky run, but also has an awful postseason history. In four postseason starts, two with San Diego in 2005-06 and two with Boston this season, Peavy is 0-3 with a 10.31 ERA. To be fair, Peavy did get a no-decision in Boston's 3-1 win against the Rays that clinched the ALDS.

Peavy's solid performance against the Rays came somewhat as a surprise because he'd been very mediocre over his final four starts of the regular season that saw him allow 15 runs in 25 innings (5.40 ERA). He went 1-0 in those games and the Red Sox went 2-2, but it wasn't close to the solid performances he gave in his first six Boston starts after being acquired from the White Sox at the end of July. In five of those six starts, Peavy allowed two runs or fewer in each.

Game 3 Starters: Jake Peavy (12-6, 4.40 ERA) vs. Joe Kelly (10-6, 2.89 ERA)

Game 3 Price: Red Sox -110, Total: 7 OV -120

Series Price: Red Sox -115, Cardinals -105 (BOS opened-140)

One area Peavy might be able to help out a little is with his bat. Since moving to the AL, he's only had two hits in five years. But he had some pretty good years in the NL; he hit two homers in 2006, compiled 17 hits in 2007, and posted a career-high .265 average in 2008. He may be a little rusty, but he won't be an easy out for St. Louis pitchers.

Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly had a much better regular season than what he's shown in the postseason. The Cardinals have gone 1-2 behind him in three playoff starts, two of which he only gave up two earned runs each. But in his last start, Game 5 of the NLCS against the Dodgers, he got roughed up a bit, allowing four runs in five innings.

The spotlight is much brighter in the postseason and not every young pitcher can be totally immune to the pressure like Michael Wacha has been. If siding with the Cards and Kelly tonight, the hope is that the version of Kelly we'll see is the one who from July 6 on was one of the key reasons St. Louis won the NL Central, affording them the chance to play a clinching Game 5 of the NLDS at home instead of in Pittsburgh. The Cards went 11-3 behind Kelly in his final 14 starts, and at one point won eight straight behind him. In 10 of those 14 starts, Kelly allowed two runs or fewer, including four in which he didn't allow any.

When looking at the body of work of tonight's starters, it's hard to make a case for Peavy. Kelly, despite a stumble at Dodger Stadium, has much more positives to work with. Then when considering Napoli's absence from the starting lineup, Ortiz's .158 average in 19 at-bats as a first baseman in NL parks this season, and the Cardinals' home-field edge (5-1 record at Busch Stadium during the postseason), the Cardinals should be about a -120 favorite tonight.

We'll take the value with the home team tonight, and because of Peavy, the chance the game goes over the total of 7 is much greater than anyone else in Boston's rotation. If a tired Clay Buchholz actually starts Game 4 instead of Felix Doubront, we'll revisit that statement.

Tonight, we'll look for a 6-3 Cardinals win.