MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 5

TAMPA BAY vs. BOSTON
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Tampa Bay is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Rays-Red Sox

Price allowed two runs in each of his last five starts (2-1, 2.55); five of his last seven starts went over total. Price is 2-2, 2.48 in five '13 starts vs Boston.
Lackey is 2-1, 5.33 in his last four starts; three of which went over. Boston scored 27 runs in his last four starts. He is 0-1, 9.00 in two '13 starts vs Rays.

Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 13 games; they're playing in fifth city in last ten days, all on the road. Rays are 7-13 vs Boston this year, 4-7 in Fenway.

Red Sox are 33-22 vs lefty starters.

Boston is 4-4 in last eight games, as they won AL East fairly easily; their last six games went over the total.

Tigers-A's

Verlander beat the A's twice in LY's playoffs; he is 1-1, 2.11 in his last four starts this year, 1-1, 4.91 in two '13 starts vs Oakland.
Rookie Gray is 3-0, 3.00 in his last four starts; he hasn't pitched against Tigers.

Detroit's last seven games stayed under the total- -they scored 17 runs in their last eight games, but last night, three was enough.

Oakland is 4-4 vs Tigers this year, with road team winning six of eight games. Detroit beat the A's in five games in LY's playoffs.

A's won 16 of last 22 games, eight of last eleven at home. Nine of their last 12 games went over the total.

Armadillosports.com

Saturay's MLB ALDS Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (+108, 7.5)

Red Sox lead series 1-0.

The biggest worry for the Boston Red Sox prior to Game 1 of the American League Division Series was rust after taking four days off between games. That turned out to not be much of a concern in a 12-2 victory, and the Red Sox will look to take a commanding lead in the best-of-five series when they host Game 2 on Saturday. Tampa Bay finished second in the majors in fielding percentage but looked uncomfortable on defense in Game 1.

Rays left fielder Sean Rodriguez had trouble judging balls off the “Green Monster” and rookie Wil Myers let a fly ball drop on the warning track in deep right-center in Game 1, leading to big innings for the Red Sox. With right-hander John Lackey scheduled to start for Boston on Saturday, Tampa Bay will likely give Rodriguez the start off in Game 2. Every Red Sox starter recorded at least one hit in Game 1, and seven different players had at least one RBI.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from CF at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH David Price (10-8, 3.33 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52)

Price pitched Tampa Bay into the playoffs by holding the Texas Rangers to two runs on seven hits in a complete game on Monday. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner allowed two runs in each of his last five starts, including over eight innings against the Red Sox on Sept. 10. Price is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in his postseason career but came out of the bullpen against Boston in the 2008 ALCS, including closing out a Game 7 win.

Lackey last pitched at Colorado on Sept. 24 and struggled to a 4.98 ERA in five starts over the final month of the regular season. The veteran faced Tampa Bay twice in 2013 and was knocked around for nine runs on 19 hits in 10 total innings. Lackey is making his first postseason appearance since 2009, when he was with the Los Angeles Angels, and is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 14 career playoff games - 12 starts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in Price's last five road starts vs. Red Sox.
* Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Boston.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five games with umpire Eric Cooper behind home plate.
* Under is 6-2 in Lackeys last eight starts vs. American League East.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox backup C David Ross is 2-for-5 with two home runs in his career against Price and is expected to catch Lackey on Saturday.

2. Myers is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the last three games.

3. Boston has recorded 41 straight stolen bases without being caught.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland A's (+114, 7)

Tigers lead series 1-0.

The Detroit Tigers had a distinct advantage in starting pitching entering the American League Division Series, and are putting it to good use. The Tigers threw the 2013 Cy Young Award favorite in a Game 1 victory and will send a former Cy Young winner to the mound in Justin Verlander when they visit the Oakland Athletics for Game 2 on Saturday. The Athletics managed just three hits in the 3-2 loss on Friday.

Detroit pitching piled up 16 strikeouts between Max Scherzer, Drew Smyly and Joaquin Benoit on Friday and seemed to figure out everyone in the lineup except Yoenis Cespedes, who tripled and homered for Oakland. The Athletics dropped the first two games of the ALDS to the Tigers on the road in 2012 and came back to force a Game 5 before falling short. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera is noticeably hobbled by groin and abdominal pain and had to be removed on defense late Friday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Sonny Gray (5-3, 2.67)

Verlander dominated in his last two starts, accumulating 12 scoreless innings while allowing nine hits and striking out 22. The 30-year-old surrendered one run and three hits over six frames at Oakland on April 13 but lost to the Athletics on Aug. 27, yielding five runs (three earned) in five innings. Verlander beat Oakland twice in the ALDS last October, allowing one run in 16 total innings.

Gray earned his spot in the postseason rotation with a strong finish to his rookie campaign, going 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA in five September starts. The 23-year-old tuned up by striking out eight and scattering three hits over five scoreless innings at Seattle on Sunday. Gray surrendered two or fewer earned runs in eight of his 10 starts.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last four road starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 7-0 in Tigers last seven overall.
* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Oakland.
* Athletics are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Athletics RHP A.J. Griffin (right elbow tendinitis) could begin throwing again on Saturday in an effort to be ready for the ALCS.

2. Cabrera has two extra-base hits in his last 26 games.

3. Cespedes is 4-for-12 with a pair of doubles against Verlander in his career.

Tampa Bay at Boston
Price: Tampa Bay 16-6 SU on the road with a money line of -100 to -125
Lackey: Boston 33-42 SU in home games against division opponents

Detroit at Oakland
Verlander: Detroit 6-15 SU in road games after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Gray: Oakland 19-5 SU in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3

StatFox Super Situations

MLB DETROIT at OAKLAND
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games 105-66 since 1997. ( 61.4% 45.3 units ) 8-12 this year. ( 40.0% -4.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB TAMPA BAY at BOSTON
TAMPA BAY is 43-22 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: TAMPA BAY (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.4)

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds and Picks - Tampa looking to even the series
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

The Rays try to put a Game 1 drubbing behind them and even the series behind their ace, David Price. If they can take Game 2 at Fenway Park (5:35 p.m. ET, TBS), the Rays will reclaim home-field advantage as they head back to Tampa.

Game 2 Starters: David Price (10-8, 3.33 ERA) vs. John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA)

Game 2 Price: Rays -118, Total: 7.5 UN -120

Season Series Record: Red Sox 13-7 (Including ALDS)

Updated Series Price: Red Sox -230, Rays +190

Game 2 Outlook: Today's number on the game with the Rays being a -118 favorite is all about David Price and his apparent mastery over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. In 10 career starts at Boston's home field, he's 6-1 with a 1.88 ERA. In three starts there this season, he was 2-0 while allowing only three runs in 22.1 innings.

Although Price is 0-3 in the playoffs -- all against the Rangers -- he did come up big with a one-game playoff win at Texas for the right to play in the wild card. Over his past five starts, he's allowed only two runs in each, and the Rays have won his last three.

On the other side we have John Lackey, who will be participating in his 15th postseason game and his first since 2009. Since joining the Red Sox in 2010, he's 3-5 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts against the Rays. Lately, Lackey has looked pretty tired with a 5.33 ERA over his final four starts of the regular season. This will be his first start in 11 days.

Prediction: Rays 5-3

A's vs. Tigers Odds and Pick - Oakland looking to bounce back after Game 1 loss
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

Aside from one mistake to Yoenis Cespedes, Max Scherzer was on his game in last night's ALDS opener. Justin Verlander looks to follow suit in Game 2 (9:37 p.m. ET, TBS) and send his Tigers back home with a chance to sweep. The Linemakers on Sporting News offer betting analysis and picks for tonight's game.

Game 2 Starters: Justin Verlander (13-12, 3.46 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (5-3, 2.67 ERA)

Game 2 Price: Tigers -125, Total: 6.5 OV -120

Season Series Record: Tied at 4-4 (Including ALDS)

Updated Series Price: Tigers -370, A's +310

Game 2 Outlook: The big question here is which Justin Verlander will show up. Will it be the one that dominated the A's twice in last year's ALDS or the one that struggled for most of the season and set his lowest mark for wins and strikeouts since 2008? Will it be the one from this season where his team went only 14-20? Or will it be the Verlander that didn't allow a run over his final two starts of the regular season?

We didn't see Verlander get completely rocked in September like he did from May through August, but the Tigers still lost nine of his past 10 starts. Those types of numbers shouldn't make him a favorite to win today, but the Tigers are. Part of the high number is built in just because of the Verlander name attached to the game. It's postseason time and he should be able to flip the switch and go back to being dominant, right?

The other part is that the A's are starting rookie Sonny Gray and kind of need this win desperately. Is Gray up to the challenge of being on the biggest stage of his career? This will be the first time he's faced the Tigers this season, but he's been impressive in six home starts with a 3-1 record and 1.99 ERA.

Although the Tigers jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Bartolo Colon in the first inning last night, giving the impression that the Tigers' bats from the first five months of the season are back, they couldn't muster anything in the final eight innings. They're up 1-0 in the series and got great bullpen work in Game 1, but something still doesn't look right -- or at least normal -- from the Tigers.

Prediction: A's 4-3