MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, September 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Wacha is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. St Louis is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-4
Hendricks is 2-1, 2.82 in his last six starts; under is 8-2 in his last ten. Cubs are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-4
St Louis is 9-2 in its last 11 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Cubs won their last four games, scoring 49 runs; over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Hill is 0-4, 4.18 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-4
Cole is 1-2, 3.06 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-2 in his last six. Washington is 0-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Dodgers won their last three games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Washington won seven of last 11 games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Pirates @ Reds
Nova is 0-3, 11.77 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Pirates are 4-13 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-16-1
Romano is 2-1, 2.93 in his last five starts (under 7-6). Reds are 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-2
Pirates lost eight of last nine games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Reds lost five of last eight games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine.
Marlins @ Brewers (Miami will be “home” team, bat last. Game is in Milwaukee, though)
Conley is 0-2, 6.41 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Miami is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-3
Davies is 3-1, 1.69 in his last four starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11. Milwaukee is 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-6
Marlins lost 16 of last 18 games; over is 8-1 in their last nine. Milwaukee won six of its last seven games; under is 4-2–1 in their last seven home games.
Mets @ Braves
deGrom is 0-2, 8.62 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Mets are 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11-2
Dickey is 1-2, 6.44 in his last five starts, last four of which went over. Atlanta is 10-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him:
Mets lost their last eight road games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games. Atlanta won five of its last six games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Padres @ Rockies
Lyles is 1-0, 5.79 in two starts this year (over 2-0). Padres scored 17 runs in the two games. San Diego won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0
Anderson is 0-1, 6.91 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Colorado is 2-3 in his home starts; their first 5-inning record with him: 6-6
San Diego lost seven of last ten games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Rockies won nine of their last 12 games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Greinke is 2-0, 2.36 in his last four starts; under is 5-0-2 in his last seven. Arizona is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-6-5
Bumgarner is 0-3, 6.50 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Giants are 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-4
Arizona is 17-4 in its last 21 games; under is 4-1-1 in its last six. Giants lost four 15 of last 20 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
American League
White Sox @ Tigers
Lopez is 1-3, 5.24 in his last four starts (under 3-2). White Sox split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3
Jaye allowed seven runs in 3.2 IP (85 PT) in his first start, an 11-0 loss in Cleveland. Tigers’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
White Sox won six of last seven games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Detroit lost 12 of last 15 games; over is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Red Sox @ Rays
Porcello is 1-3, 8.72 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight starts. Boston is 7-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-19-3
Cobb is 2-0, 1.69 in his last two starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight starts. Rays are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-3
Boston won seven of last nine games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Tampa Bay lost six of last eight games; four of their last five games stayed under.
Royals @ Indians
Hammel is 2-2, 6.05 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Royals are 5-8 in his last 13 starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-7
Carrasco is 3-0, 0.62 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Indians are 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 20-7-2
Royals lost three of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Cleveland won 22 of its last 23 games; under is 17-5 in their last 22 home games.
Baltimore @ New York
Hellickson is 0-2, 10.38 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Orioles are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1
Montgomery is 0-1, 4.94 in his last six starts, last four of which went over. NY is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-11-3
Orioles lost eight of last nine games; six of their last eight games stayed under. New York won six of last seven games (under 4-3).
Mariners @ Astros
Ramirez is 1-1, 2.70 in his last six starts (under 5-1). Seattle is 3-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-3
Keuchel is 1-2, 5.13 in his last four starts, three of which went over. Astros are 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-2
Mariners lost seven of their last ten road games; nine of their last 11 games overall stayed under. Astros lost five of their last eight games; over is 5-1 in their last six games.
Blue Jays @ Twins
Estrada is 3-0, 4.30 in his last four starts; over is 9-5 in his last 14 starts. Toronto is 8-11 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-15-3
Mejia is 0-2, 5.08 in his last six starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last 10 starts. Twins are 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-4
Blue Jays lost their last three games, all by one run; under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games. Minnesota won seven of last nine games; over is 6-5 in their last 11 home games.
Rangers @ Angels
Hamels is 1-2, 7.59 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Rangers are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-3-2
Bridwell is 0-1, 7.88 in his last five starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Angels are 6-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-4-3
Texas lost seven of last nine games; over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games. Angels lost five of last eight games, six of which stayed under.
Interleague
A’s @ Phillies
Graveman is 2-0, 4.30 in his last four starts over is 6-2 in his last eight starts. A’s are 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-5
Lively is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts; under is 8-2-2 in his last 12 starts. Phillies are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-2
A’s won seven of their last nine games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Philly won four of its last six games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
StL-Chi: Wacha 14-13; Hendricks 10-11
LA-Wsh: Hill 12-10; Cole 2-4
Pitt-Cin: Nova 13-15; Romano 5-8
Mia-Mil: Conley 8-9; Davies 19-11
NY-Atl: deGrom 16-13; Dickey 15-13
SD-Colo: Lyles 2-0; Anderson 5-7
Az-SF: Greinke 20-9; Bumgarner 3-12
American League
Balt-NYY: Hellickson 4-4; Montgomery 11-15
Bos-TB: Porcello 13-17; Cobb 14-13
Chi-Det: Lopez 2-3; Jaye 0-1
KC-Clev: Hammel 10-19; Carrasco 21-8
Sea-Hst: Ramirez 3-5; Keuchel 14-6
Tor-Minn: Estrada 14-16; Mejia 8-10
Tex-LA: Hamels 12-8; Bridwell 14-2
Interleague
A’s-Phil: Graveman 7-9; Lively 5-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
StL-Chi: Wacha 4-27; Hendricks 7-21
LA-Wsh: Hill 7-22; Cole 3-6
Pitt-Cin: Nova 10-28; Romano 5-13
Mia-Mil: Conley 6-17; Davies 8-30
NY-Atl: deGrom 9-27; Dickey 7-28
SD-Colo: Lyles 1-2; Anderson 1-12
Az-SF: Greinke 3-29; Bumgarner 3-15
American League
Balt-NYY: Hellickson 2-8; Montgomery 7-26
Bos-TB: Porcello 9-30; Cobb 4-27
Chi-Det: Lopez 1-5; Jaye 0-1
KC-Clev: Hammel 6-29; Carrasco 5-29
Sea-Hst: Ramirez 3-8; Keuchel 5-20
Tor-Minn: Estrada 10-30; Mejia 5-18
Tex-LA: Hamels 8-20; Bridwell 2-16
Interleague
A’s-Phil: Graveman 8-16; Lively 4-12
Umpires
National League
StL-Chi: Under is 7-2 in last nine Torres games.
LA-Wsh: Five of last six Cederstrom games went over.
Pitt-Cin: Favorites won six of last seven West games.
Mia-Mil: Favorites won seven of last nine Tichenor games.
NY-Atl: Home team won last ten Culbreth games.
SD-Colo: Under is 8-2-2 in last 12 Davis games.
Az-SF: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten May games.
American League
Balt-NYY: Four of last six Barry games went over.
Bos-TB: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Nelson games.
Chi-Det: Over is 5-2 in last seven Gorman games.
KC-Clev: Underdogs won seven of last nine TBarrett games.
Sea-Hst: Six of last seven Ripperger games stayed under.
Tor-Minn: Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Meals games.
Tex-LA: Under is 8-5-1 in last 14 Holbrook games.
Interleague
A’s-Phil: Over is 4-2-2 in last eight Layne games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 83-56 AL, favorites -$36
AL @ NL– 72-68 NL, favorites -$84
Total: 151-128 AL, favorites -$120
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 70-67-4
AL @ NL: Over 74-60-7
Total: Over 144-127-11
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Double-Play Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins (+132, 9)
The Brewers are still in the hunt for the National League Central Division crown, while the only thing interesting thing about the Marlins is whether or not Giancarlo Stanton will hit 61 or more home runs this season. The two NL teams continue their three-game weekend set in Miami Saturday Night.
The Brewers have won six of seven and trail the Cubs by three games for the division lead after thumping the Marlins 10-2 in the opener of the series Friday night. It was the Marlins 16th loss in their last 18 games.
It won’t get any easier for the Marlins as they face off against the Brewers’ Zach Davies. The right-hander has been one of the big reasons the Brew Crew has had so much success this season.
Davies is 17-8 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP this season and he has been even better lately. In his last six starts (where the Brewers are 4-2), Davies has pitched to a 1.14 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
He faces a Marlins offense that is plating just 2.5 runs per contest in their last eight games at home.
Pick: Brewers -145
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco 49ers (+129, 7.5)
We are rolling with the Diamondbacks for the second straight night, after they came through with a 3-2 win to cash our pick and take the first game of this three game series. Game 2 is a classic pitcher’s duel as Zack Greinke faces off against Madison Bumgarner Saturday night in San Francisco.
Last night’s win was the eighth in a row on the road and they’re 10-1 in their last 11 road games, where they have allowed an average of just 2.2 runs per game. Expect more of the same with Greinke on the bump.
The D-backs are 3-1 in his last four starts, where he has pitched to a 2.05 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. He faces a Giants lineup that ranks 29th in runs per game and 30th in home runs and OPS.
It’s just been one of those years for the Giants as even Bumgarner is struggling. San Fran has lost his last four starts and he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts.
Pick: Diamondbacks -14
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 143-136-14
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians (15-6, 3.41 ERA, $762)
The Indians historic winning streak might be over but there’s no reason to think a losing streak is in the cards as Terry Francona hands the ball to Carlos Carrasco.
In his last four starts, he has a team record of 4-0, allowed only two earned runs in 29 innings (0.62 ERA), and struck out 34 while only walking one batter.
Carrasco and the Indians are -219 home favorites today in Cleveland against the Royals.
Slumping: Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees (7-7, 4.24 ERA, $-630)
It certainly has been an up and down season for Yankees rookie Jordan Montgomery, after starting the year throwing fire things have tumbled. The 6’6 lefty hasn’t recorded a win or a quality start since July 25th and there hasn't been any indication that he is putting things together anytime this season.
Over his last three trips to the mound, he’s thrown a total of 12 innings allowed 9 earned runs (6.75 ERA), has a 1.83 WHIP, opponents on-base percentage of .373, and given up three home runs.
Montgomery and the Yankees are -200 home chalk today against the Orioles.
Saturday's Top Trends
* Dodgers are 1-12 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. -153 today @ Nationals.
* Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between Orioles and Yankees in New York. BAL/NYY Total: 10.
* Over is 11-1-1 in Michael Wacha’s last 13 starts vs. Cubs. STL/CHC Total: 9.5
* Pirates are 1-10 in Novas last 11 road starts. +102 @ Reds.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
It will be a mostly dry Saturday across Major League Baseball. The only exception being in Minnesota where the Twins are hosting the Blue Jays and thunderstorms and a 75 percent chance of rain are forecasted for first pitch.
The most prominent winds are in the usual spots, Wrigley Field has a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field. The Cubbies host the Cardinals in an afternoon game, the total is currently at 9.5.
Also, AT&T Park in San Francisco where the Giants are hosting the Diamondbacks and they will be met with a 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to straight center field. The total is set at 7.5.
Ump Of The Day
Ted Barrett is one of the top Under umpires in Major League Baseball and will be calling balls and strikes for tonight’s game at Progressive Field between the Indians and the visiting Royals.
On the season the OVER has only cashed nine times in his 24 appearances behind the plate (37.5 percent). In his last 17 games with the gear on the UNDER is 12-3-2 and the total for tonight’s game has already dropped from the opening number of 9, down to 8.5.