MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com
The St. Louis Cardinals have won all four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, including last night when they came back to win 7-6 in 10-innings after blowing a 6-2 lead. The combination of a win tonight and a Pirates loss will give them their second straight NL Central crown as well as their fourth straight 90-win season.
St. Louis comes in as a -151 road favorite tonight behind Lance Lynn (15-10, 2.73 ERA) against Wade Miley, but there are a few reasons why the home team might offer some value. 'Arizona' and 'value' in the same sentence might sound like an oxymoron, but the first reason to choose St. Louis to lose stems from Lynn, who has gone winless in his last three starts.
It's not that Lynn has been terrible over those recent starts (0-2, 2.14 ERA), but he did serve up three homers in his last two. Perhaps the biggest reason to go against Lynn is that this is kind of like a playoff game and Lynn -- outside of a strong performance against the Dodgers in the NLCS last season -- has been very mediocre in the playoffs to the point where he's routinely been passed over for starts despite very good regular season statistics.
Maybe it's the long baseball season that wears him down by the time the playoffs start. If he makes it to the fifth inning today, he'll set a career-high for innings pitched.
On the other side, Arizona really doesn't have anything to play for. The record books will forever show that this squad had the worst record in baseball during the 2014 season. They just fired manager Kirk Gibson and bench coach Alan Trammell, but Trammell is still managing the team through Sunday.
Gibson deserved to be fired, but I couldn't help but think about the guys who fired him. Tony La Russa and newly-signed GM Dave Stewart, who were both members of that '88 Oakland A's team against whom Gibson limped out and hit the game-winning and series-changing two-run homer in the ninth inning to win Game 1. Stewart was in line to get that Game 1 victory before the Gibson shot.
In a completely unrelated part to this piece, another member of that '88 team, Jose Canseco, was at Sunset Park in Las Vegas Friday playing in a huge softball tournament.
Anyway, back to why Arizona has a great shot to win tonight. Miley got roughed up at Colorado in his last start Sunday, but we can give him a mulligan on that one. It's what he did prior to that start that gives indication he's going to be tough on the Cardinals tonight. He went seven straight starts of allowing three runs or fewer and he's served up only one home run in his last eight starts.
Arizona will go into this game knowing Miley is pitching well, knowing that this is their small chance to make their play matter on the baseball season, and knowing that there's a new set of eyes -- Stewart -- evaluating them for next season. Arizona should be pumped for this one and show the type of effort they got last night when they came back and nearly stole one from St. Louis.
The Cardinals will already know what happened in Cincinnati with Pittsburgh, where the Francisco Liriano is a -165 favorite this afternoon. If the Pirates win, it makes Arizona an even better play tonight. You wouldn't think that a perennial playoff team like St. Louis could be rattled in the clutch, but Lynn has shown otherwise.
Saturday selections:
Diamondbacks (Miley) +141 vs. Cardinals
Padres/Giants UNDER 6.5 (+115)