MLB Betting News and Notes Saturday, September 2nd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Cubs
Sims is 2-1, 3.12 in his last three starts (under 4-2). Braves are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Lester is 0-1, 9.33 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Cubs are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-6

Atlanta lost four of last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Cubs won six of last seven games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Reds @ Pirates
Mahle allowed three runs in five IP (92 PT) in his MLB debut. Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Taillon is 0-0, 7.07 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. He is 0-2, 9.82 in three starts vs Cincy this year. Pirates are 3-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-4

Cincinnati won three of last four games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Pirates are 3-8 in last 11 games; four of their last six games stayed under the total.

Phillies @ Marlins
Nola is 1-2, 7.36 in his last three starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11. He is 0-2, 12.54 vs Miami this season. Phillies are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-7

Straily is 1-0, 4.03 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. He is 2-1, 4.58 vs Philly this season. Miami is 1-4 in his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-4

Phillies are 6-5 in last 11 games; under is 4-1 in their last five. Marlins lost their last five games; under is 4-2 in their last six games.

Nationals @ Brewers
Scherzer is 5-0, 2.41 in his last ten starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Washington is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-7-2

Woodruff is 1-1, 1.62 in three starts this year (under 3-0). Road team won all three of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Washington won four of its last six games; six of their last eight games went over. Milwaukee won seven of their last eight home games; nine of their last 12 games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Corbin is 4-0, 0.30 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 0-1, 6.75 in two starts vs Arizona this season. Arizona is 4-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-4

Gray is 3-1, 2.59 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Colorado is 5-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-1

Arizona won 10 of last 11 games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five games. Colorado lost five of last six home games; four of their last five games stayed under.

Dodgers @ Padres
Stewart is 0-0, 11.17 in three starts this year (over 2-1). Dodgers split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-2

Darvish is 2-1, 3.13 in four starts for LA (over 2-2). Dodgers split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Richard is 1-1, 4.28 in his last five stats; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 1-2, 5.79 in four starts vs LA this season. San Diego is 5-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-13-2

Lyles is making his first ’17 start; he was 0-2, 6.94 in 33 relief stints (46.2 IP) for Colorado this year. Lyles has made 102 MLB starts (27-45, 5.29); he was 1-1, 4.50 in five AAA starts this year.

Dodgers lost five of their last six games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. San Diego is 11-7 in its last 18 home games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine.

Cardinals @ Giants
Lynn is 0-0, 3.96 in his last four starts; under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts. St Louis is 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-12-2

Stratton is 2-1, 0.96 in his last three starts (under 3-2). Giants won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Cardinals lost four of last seven games; over is 5-1 in their last six. Giants lost six of their last seven games; eight of their last 11 games overall stayed under.

American League

Indians @ Tigers
Kluber is 5-1, 1.99 in his last six starts (under 4-2). He is 1-1, 7.54 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Cleveland is 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-2

Zimmerman is 1-2, 9.98 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 0-2, 9.35 against the Indians this year. Detroit is 4-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-14

Indians won their last nine games- four of their last six games went over. Detroit lost seven of last nine home games; over is 10-3–1 in their last 14 home games.

Boston @ New York
Pomeranz is 4-0, 2.28 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. He is 2-0, 3.86 in four starts vs NY this season. Boston is 6-1 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-10

Tanaka is 2-0, 2.57 in his last two starts, 1-2, 3.32 vs Boston this year. NY is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2

Red Sox won six of last eight road games; six of their last seven games stayed under. New York lost four of its last five games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Stroman is 1-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Toronto is 8-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-1

Miley is 5-0, 3.23 in his last seven starts; over is 10-3 in his last 13 starts. He is 2-0, 0.69 vs Toronto this season. Orioles are 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-8-2

Toronto lost 10 of last 13 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine. Orioles won nine of last 11 games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Nolasco is 2-0, 5.12 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. He is 0-2, 11.45 in three starts vs Texas this year. Angels are 3-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-14-4

Griffin is 2-5, 7.76 in his last seven starts (over 9-3-1). Texas is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Angels won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Texas lost four of last seven games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Royals @ Twins
Garcia is making his first MLB start; he’s allowed seven runs in seven IP in four relief stints this year. He was 7-3, 5.04 in 20 AAA games (10 starts) this season.

Gibson is 2-0, 1.98 in his last two starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12 starts. He is 1-0, 5.23 in two starts against the Royals this season. Twins are 4-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-1

Royals lost six of last eight games (over 5-2-1). Minnesota won four of its last five games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Rays @ White Sox
Archer is 1-1, 3.16 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Rays are 7-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-6-5

Rodon is 1-1, 3.07 in his last six starts (under 4-2). White Sox are 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-1

Rays won six of last eight games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Chicago lost five of last six games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.

A’s @ Mariners
Cotton is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Oakland is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-1

Gallardo is 0-3, 8.44 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Seattle is 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-3

A’s lost eight of last ten road games; four of their last six games went over. Seattle lost five of its last six games; over is 3-2 in their last five.

Interleague

Mets @ Astros
Lugo is 0-1, 7.64 in his last four starts (over 9-2-1). New York is 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-2

Harvey is making his first start since June 14; he is 4-3, 5.37 in 13 starts this year (over 8-3-2). New York is 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6

Peacock is 1-3, 7.97 in his last four starts. Over is 5-2-1 in his last eight outings. Astros are 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12-3

Morton is 1-2, 4.80 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Houston is 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-2

Emotional day in Houston, as Astros return home for first time since hurricane. Astros are 4-5 in last nine games; their last six games in Houston stayed under. Astros are 12-9 in home series openers. Mets are 5-13 in last 18 games; over is 5-1 in their last six. NY is 11-10 in road series openers.

Record with this pitcher starting

Atl-Chi: Sims 2-4; Lester 14-12
Cin-Pitt: Mahle 0-1; Taillon 10-10
Phil-Mia: Nola 11-11; Straily 12-13
Wsh-Mil: Scherzer 17-8; Woodruff 2-1
Az-Colo: Corbin 14-13; Gray 9-5
LA-SD: Stewart 2-1 Darvish 3-1; Richard 10-17 Lyles 0-0
StL-SF: Lynn 13-14; Stratton 3-2

American League
Clev-Det: Kluber 15-8; Zimmerman 10-16
Tor-Balt: Stroman 16-11; Miley 15-12
Bos-NY: Pomeranz 18-8; Tanaka 13-12
LA-Tex: Nolasco 9-18; Griffin 8-5
KC-MIn: Garcia 0-0; Gibson 12-11
TB-Chi: Archer 15-13; Rodon 4-7
A’s-Sea: Cotton 8-12; Gallardo 7-14

Interleague
NY-Hst: Hugo 7-5 Harvey 5-8; Peacock 11-5 Morton 12-8

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Chi: Sims 2-6; Lester 9-26
Cin-Pitt: Mahle 0-1; Taillon 5-20
Phil-Mia: Nola 5-22; Straily 6-25
Wsh-Mil: Scherzer 5-25; Woodruff 0-3
Az-Colo: Corbin 12-27; Gray 3-14
LA-SD: Stewart 0-2 Darvish 2-4; Richard 8-27 Lyles 0-0
StL-SF: Lynn 7-27; Stratton 1-5

American League
Clev-Det: Kluber 4-23; Zimmerman 9-26
Tor-Balt: Stroman 5-27; Miley 10-27
Bos-NY: Pomeranz 8-26; Tanaka 11-25
LA-Tex: Nolasco 11-27; Griffin 3-13
KC-MIn: Garcia 0-0; Gibson 8-23
TB-Chi: Archer 8-28; Rodon 4-11
A’s-Sea: Cotton 8-20; Gallardo 11-21

Interleague
NY-Hst: Hugo 4-12 Harvey 6-13; Peacock 2-16 Morton 3-20

Umpires

National League
Atl-Chi: Over is 15-4-2 in last 21 Gonzalez games.
Cin-Pitt: Under is 9-2 in last 11 Hernandez games.
Phil-Mia: Under is 6-2 in Ortiz games this season.
Wsh-Mil: Over is 7-4-1 in last dozen Cuzzi games.
Az-Colo: Five of last six Emmel games stayed under.
LA-SD: Under is 3-1-1 in last five Porter games.
StL-SF: Five of last seven Dreckman games stayed under.

American League
Clev-Det: Under is 13-4-3 in last 20 Blakney games.
Tor-Balt: Under is 8-4 in last dozen Lentz games.
Bos-NY: Under is 5-2 in last seven Gibson games.
LA-Tex: Four of last five Hudson games stayed under.
KC-MIn: Under is 8-4-2 in last fourteen Winters games.
TB-Chi: Under is 8-2 in last ten Blaser games.
A’s-Sea: Under is 12-4-2 in last 18 Fairchild games.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-65 NL, favorites +$164
Total: 141-126 AL, favorites +$267

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-59-7
Total: Over 136-124-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Boston at New York (-140); Total: 8.5

We’re seeing some overnight money hit the board on the Yankees, who will send Masahiro Tanaka to the hill for this matchup against the Red Sox. Boston will counter with Drew Pomeranz. The markets are looking for a little bit of regression from Pomeranz, who has a 3.23 ERA with a 3.65 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. For the second straight season, Pomeranz is posting a LOB% of 80 percent, so it isn’t a big surprise that the market is looking to sell its stock in the southpaw. Line moves are often dictated by ERA/FIP and ERA/xFIP discrepancies, which are usually driven by LOB% marks. In this case, Pomeranz checks all of the boxes, so the market is against him.

Pomeranz has struck out over a batter per inning this season, though, and has a HR/FB% that isn’t that far away from normal, so I’m a bit skeptical on playing the xFIP angle. This is a guy that has outpitched his xFIP in each of the last four seasons and at some point, you just have to give him credit for that. Even with a big spike in BABIP this season, Pomeranz is still posting a great ERA. He has only allowed more than three runs once dating back to June 11, so he has been on a steady run for a while. That being said, he has walked nine over his last 11.1 innings of work, so it’s fair to wonder if some of his recurring issues with his triceps are back again. Since the All-Star Break, Pomeranz has been even better at stranding runners with an 84.8 percent mark. That should see regression at some point, hence the line move.

Masahiro Tanaka is a guy in line for some positive regression with a 4.69 ERA, a 4.42 FIP, and a 3.55 xFIP. Tanaka has a great strikeout rate and a good walk rate, but his 20.9 percent HR/FB% really stands out. He’s allowed 29 HR in 147.2 innings of work this season. Tanaka has only allowed three home runs over his last five starts and he’s pitched well in those outings, despite a DL stint from August 10-22. The Red Sox haven’t been able to take much advantage of the league-wide home run craze, so it’s plausible that Tanaka’s long ball problem isn’t as big of an issue against the Yankees’ chief rival.

Factor in the back end of the Yankees bullpen and you get the line that we’re seeing. I’m not eager to lay -140 in this spot. If I had to make a play, I’d go chalk, but the line is a little bit high for my liking.

St. Louis (-130) at San Francisco; Total: 8.5

This is a tough game for the market. Lance Lynn has been a primary fade candidate for most of the season, but nobody wants to back the Giants. After all, a kid making his Major League debut in a series opener with long travel was favored over Johnny Cueto on Friday night. That tells you all that you need to know about the current state of the Giants. They’ll look to scratch out a win with Chris Stratton on the mound on Saturday.

Lynn has a 3.14 ERA with a 4.77 FIP and a 4.63 xFIP, so there’s no question as to why the market has been against him. Lynn, like Pomeranz, is a guy that often outpitches his xFIP, but it’s never been this high. Lynn is usually a guy that does a good job of limiting home runs, but he’s in his first year back from Tommy John surgery and command is always the last thing to come back. Lynn has allowed 24 HR, which is eight more than he has allowed in any past season. His 81.7 percent strand rate doesn’t sit well with the betting market, especially with a drop in strikeouts from his pre-TJS self. The problem here is the Giants.

In order to protect arms, the Giants are rolling with a six-man rotation from here on out, barring injury. Stratton has a 3.82 ERA with a 3.74 FIP and a 4.48 xFIP. He’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park in his 37.2 innings, but he’s issued a lot of walks in five starts and three relief outings. In 30.1 innings as a starter, Stratton has allowed just a .216 batting average against and a .330 slugging percentage against, but he’s been very lucky that the 17 walks haven’t come back to hurt him. He has an 81.6 percent strand rate in his five starts.

Playing overs with the Giants isn’t advisable either with their bad offense, but these are two pitchers that do show some signs of regression. A total of 8.5 is pretty high in AT&T Park, but it is unseasonably warm right now and that played out on Friday night with 17 runs in a game with a total of nine. With a day game on tap for tomorrow, the over isn’t a bad look, since the ball carries a bit better in the afternoon.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-145); Total: 8.5

Rookie Tyler Mahle makes his second career start as the Reds and Pirates get things going again at PNC Park. It will be Jameson Taillon for the Buccos in this one. Mahle just faced the Pirates at home in his MLB debut and struggled with three runs allowed on four hits with four walks and five strikeouts in five innings of work. He also hit a batter. That was uncharacteristic for Mahle, who had a 138/30 K/BB ratio across 144.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A prior to the call-up. In that respect, I’m looking for a bit of a bounce back outing for the youngster. Nerves are a big deal with that first big league start and Mahle is only 22 years old.

Aside from the fact that Mahle is making his second career start and second straight start against the same team, Jameson Taillon is a candidate for some positive regression. He has a 4.75 ERA with a 3.56 FIP and a 3.90 xFIP on the season. Taillon was posting some excellent numbers for a while, but he allowed 18 runs, 17 earned, on 20 hits in a two-start stretch from July 25 to August 1. After a couple of good bounce back outings, he struggled again against the Cardinals and Dodgers. His last start wasn’t overly promising with two runs allowed, one earned, on five hits with four walks and four strikeouts against the Reds in his last start.

I’m looking to back the Reds here. Their offense is underrated and people haven’t really picked up on the fact that this is actually a pretty solid bullpen. I’m not a big believer in the Pirates and it’s tough at this stage of the game for teams that have been contending on a regular basis to play out the string. That’s the situation that the Pirates are in right now.

Give me Cincinnati and give me a bounce back from the kid, who usually shows better control than what he showed in his first start.

Arizona at Colorado (-110); Total: 11.5

Patrick Corbin and Jon Gray are the listed starters for Saturday’s battle at Coors Field. The Rockies were unable to come through for us on Friday and their lead in the chase for the second Wild Card spot is down to 1.5 games. Their ace will be on the hill on Saturday, but this is a team with some problems that seriously run deep right about now.

Patrick Corbin has been one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball this season, which makes him an extremely tough guy to handicap. Corbin has a 3.91 ERA with a 3.94 FIP and a 3.67 xFIP. He’s got strong strikeout and walk peripherals and a nice ground ball rate. His 16.1 percent HR/FB% is a worry and his .333 BABIP is a little bit high, but he’s been able to work around those things for the most part. Corbin has only allowed one run over his last four starts, a solo home run, with a 29/5 K/BB ratio. He’s gone on some really good runs and has gotten in some nice grooves. He also had a stretch from May 6 to June 16 in which he had a 7.59 ERA with a 5.90 FIP over 42.2 innings of work. Since the middle of June, though, he’s mostly been good. He has a decent profile for a start at Coors Field with a lot of ground balls, but he’s also had some command issues, too.

Jon Gray is in line for some positive regression per the metrics, with a 4.18 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, and a 3.55 xFIP. Unfortunately, pitching half the time in Coors Field usually makes it tough for that positive regression to show up. He has induced a lot more ground balls this season, which I certainly like given his home park, but he hasn’t gotten much in the way of batted ball luck with a .352 BABIP against. He’s actually done a really nice job of suppressing home runs.

Batted ball luck is such a volatile thing. Gray really has two outliers on his stat sheet from this season. He allowed eight runs in two innings in a start at Citi Field against the Mets and five runs in four innings in his season debut. He missed a big chunk of time from April 13 to June 30. He’s allowed three runs or less in each of his last seven starts, so he’s been keeping his team in the game. Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of hope for the Rockies right now. Their offense has been below average most of the season, especially relative to the favorable park factor, and the injury risks in the bullpen have fallen off the pace as well.

I can make a case for both teams here, so this is a pass for me, but if I had to go one way or another, I’d go Arizona because Colorado needs to prove to me that it can win a close game and get back on track.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (-250, 8 )

After what was a rocky start to the season for the Cubs (World Series hangover anyone?), Chicago is starting to more like the team that won the Fall Classic last season.

The Cubs have won five in a row and eight straight at home, to lead the National League Central by 3.5 games over the Brewers. Chicago continues its four-game home set Saturday afternoon against the Braves.

Chicago has taken the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-2, making the Braves just 3-14 in the last 17 meetings against the Cubs and it won’t get any easier for them today as they have to face off against Jon Lester.

The Cubs are 22-5 in the veteran southpaw’s last 27 starts against teams with a losing record and they are 4-0 in his last four starts against the Braves, where he has pitched to a 0.65 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP.

Expect the Cubs to keep rolling today and happily take them on the runline to provide yourself some value.

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-117)

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-115, 9.5)

The Orioles are still fighting in the race for the second American League Wild Card spot, while the Blue Jays have been reduced to the role of spoilers as the two AL East rivals continue their four-game series tonight in Baltimore.

The Orioles are currently 1.5-games behind the Twins for the second AL Wild Card spot after gutting out a 1-0 victory over the Jays in 13-inning marathon last night. They’ll look to take the third game of the series and inch to the Twins when they send Wade Miley to the mound for Game 3.

The Orioles are 5-1 in Miley’s last six starts, where he has pitched to a 2.76 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He faces a Jays’ lineup that ranks 29th in average and 26th in runs per game.

One of the few bright spots this year has been the bounce-back year for Marcus Stroman. The diminutive in height only starter quietly has been one of the best starters in the AL this season. Stroman is 11-6 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 27 starts.

The long game last should give the pitchers an advantage today. Plus, the Under is 5-0 in Miley’s last five starts and 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Baltimore.

Pick: Under 9.5

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1

Season To Date: 131-121-13

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks (12-11, 3.91 ERA, $14)

The Diamondbacks are trying to stay in the top wildcard spot in the National League, currently sitting 4.5 games ahead of the Rockies, and a major reason why has been the team’s starting pitching staff. While Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray have been getting most of the attention, Patrick Corbin has been throwing fire lately.

The left-hander has won his last four outings and has only allowed one run in the process. In those starts, he’s thrown 30.1 innings, has an ERA of .30, a WHIP of .7641, 29 strikeouts and the only run allowed was a solo home run.

Corbin and the Diamondbacks are available at -101 tonight in Colorado.

Slumping: Yovani Gallardo, Seattle Mariners (5-10, 5.78 ERA, $-743)

Just when it looked liked Yovani Gallardo had begun to find his groove and turn things around the calendar turned to August and everything fell apart.

In his last three starts, Gallardo is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.44, WHIP of 1.69, an opponent on base percentage of .378, and has given up 5 home runs.

Gallardo and the Mariners are -137 home favorites against the Athletics.

Saturday's Top Trends

* Over is 8-1 in Drew Pomeranz’s last 9 starts vs. American League East. Red Sox/Yankees Total: 8
* Cubs are 8-0 in their last 8 home games. -245 vs. Braves.
* Over is 12-2 in Cardinals last 14 games following a win. Cardinals/Giants Total: 9.5
* Indians are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. -278 @ Tigers.
* Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 overall. +107 @ Rockies.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There will be a chance of rain developing in Detroit (30-40 percent this evening) where the Tigers will host the Indians, at PNC Park in Pittsburgh (60-70 percent) where the Pirates will host the Reds, and also in Baltimore (50-70 percent) where the Orioles will welcome the Blue Jays to town.

The most notable wind in the forecast will be at Target Field in Minnesota where the forecast is calling for a 10-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center. The Royals are in town taking on the Twins and the total is set at 10.

Ump Of The Day

Angel Hernandez is behind the plate in Cincinnati and that isn’t good news for anyone. The notoriously crappy and outspoken umpire hasn’t been a lucky charm for the Reds by any stretch, in his last 10 games calling balls and strikes involving the Reds they are 2-8.

Another trend with Hernandez lately has been Unders, he seems to want games to end quickly and has adjusted his strike zone accordingly. The Under has cashed in nine of his last 11 games with the gear on. With rain in the forecast in Pittsburgh, tonight look for this trend to continue.

The total for tonight’s Reds/Pirates game is currently at 8.5.