MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, September 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Brewers @ Cubs
Anderson is 1-1, 4.86 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 1-1, 9.00 in two starts vs Chicago this year. Milwaukee is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-2
Montgomery is 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his home starts. Cubs are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-4-1
Milwaukee lost three of its last four games; under is 13-2-3 in their last 18 road games. Cubs are 8-5 in last 13 games; under is 6-2 in their last seven.
Phillies @ Nationals
Leiter is 1-4, 7.24 in his last five starts (under 4-2-1). Phillies are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5
Jackson is 1-2, 5.09 in his last three starts (under 6-2-1). Washington is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2
Phillies lost five of last six games; under is 6-4 in their last ten games. Washington won six of its last seven games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Reds @ Mets
Bailey is 0-1, 4.79 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Reds are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1
Montero is 3-1, 2.87 in his last five starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-2
Reds lost their last four road games; under is 4-1-2 in their last seven games. Mets won five of last six games; over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games.
Marlins @ Braves
Conley is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Miami is 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3
Fried allowed one run in five IP (63 PT) in his first ’17 start, a win at Wrigley. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Marlins lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten. Atlanta lost six of last nine games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Pirates @ Cardinals
Kuhl is 2-2, 2.53 in his last four starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. He is 1-1, 3.94 in three starts vs St Louis this season. Pirates are 3-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4
Martinez is 4-1, 3.38 in his last six starts; over is 11-5 in his last 16 starts. He is 1-0, 3.21 in two starts vs Pittsburgh this year. Cardinals are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-2
Pirates lost their last four games; under is 5-1 in their last six road games. Cardinals won six of last eight games; under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Chacin is 1-3, 4.41 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. He is 1-1, 4.50 vs Arizona this season. Padres are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-14-4
Godley is 2-0, 3.75 in his last two starts; under is 9-4-2 in his last 15 starts. He is 0-1, 3.75 in two starts vs San Diego this season. Arizona is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-4
San Diego won seven of last ten games; under is 4-2 in their last five games. Arizona won 13 of its last 14 games; over is 4-0-1 in their last five home games.
Rockies @ Dodgers
Bettis is 0-2, 6.45 in his last four starts (under 5-0). Colorado lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1
Wood is 0-1, 3.79 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 2-0, 0.75 vs Colorado this season. Dodgers are 9-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-2
Colorado won four of its last five games; under is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Dodgers lost 13 of their last 14 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
American League
Tigers @ Blue Jays
Bell allowed five runs in four IP (85 PT) in his first MLB start, an 11-1 loss to Cleveland. Tigers’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Anderson is 0-1, 3.09 in his last two starts (under 2-0). Toronto lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1
Tigers lost six of last eight games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Toronto lost six of last seven home games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.
Rays @ Red Sox
Andriese is 0-1, 9.39 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-3
Sale is 1-3, 5.91 in his last four starts; under is 9-4 in his last 13 starts. He is 3-1, 2.48 in his last four starts vs Tampa this season. Red Sox are 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-8
Tampa Bay lost its last three road games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight road games. Red Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games.
Orioles @ Indians
Ynoa is making his first ‘17 start; he was 6-9, 5.25 in 21 AAA starts this year, is 1-0, 3.68 in five MLB relief stints (14.2 IP) this year.
Tomlin is 5-0, 2.29 in his last six starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Cleveland is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-4
Orioles are 10-5 in their last 15 games; three of their last four games went over. Cleveland won its last 16 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
New York @ Texas
Severino is 3-1, 2.45 in his last four starts; his last eight starts went over. New York is 8-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-3
Cashner is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; his last three starts went over. Texas is 6-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-3
New York won four of last six games; their last seven road games went over. Texas won seven of last ten games; over is 10-1-1 in their last 12 games.
Twins @ Royals
Berrios is 1-2, 5.19 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Twins lost his last eight road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-7-2
Junis is 4-0, 2.40 in his last five starts (over 6-3-2). Royals are 4-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4
Twins won their last three games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Royals lost three of last four games (over 6-2).
Astros @ A’s
Peacock is 1-1, 3.25 in his last five starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. He is 2-1, 2.81 vs Oakland his year. Astros are 7-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-3-1
Morton is 2-2, 4.82 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Astros are 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-5-2
Gossett is 0-2, 6.46 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. He is 0-2, 5.40 vs Houston this year. A’s are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-9
Mengden is making his first start since June 3; he is 0-1, 10.13 in two starts this year (over 1-1). A’s won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Astros won seven of their last eight games; under is 8-5-1 in their last 14 games. Oakland lost eight of its last ten games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Angels @ Mariners
Heaney is 1-1, 6.98 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Angels are 0-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Albers is 3-1, 6.00 in four starts this year (over 3-1). Seattle won both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1
Angels won six of last ten games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Seattle lost three of its last four games (under 4-0).
Interleague
Giants @ White Sox
Samardzija is 2-0, 2.25 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Giants are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-14-6
Shields is 0-3, 5.19 in his last six starts (under 5-1). White Sox are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-11-3
Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 games; under is 12-6 in their last 18 games. White Sox lost nine of last 11 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
Mil-Chi: Anderson 10-10; Montgomery 5-6
Phil-Wsh: Leiter 3-4; Jackson 5-4
Cin-NY: Bailey 5-9; Montero 6-8
Mia-Atl: Conley 8-8; Fried 1-0
Pitt-StL: Kuhl 11-17; Martinez 14-14
SD-Az: Chacin 14-14; Godley 13-8
Colo-LA: Bettis 2-3; Wood 16-5
American League
Det-Tor: Bell 0-1; Anderson 0-2
TB-Bos: Andriese 6-7; Sale 19-9
Balt-Clev: Ynoa 0-0; Tomlin 10-12
NY-Tex: Severino 16-11; Cashner 12-11
Minn-KC: Berrios 12-9; Junis 8-3
Hst-A’s: Morton 13-8 Peacock 12-5; Gossett 4-9 Mengden 1-1
LA-Sea: Heaney 1-3; Albers 3-1
Interleague
SF-Chi: Samardzija 13-15; Shields 6-11
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Mil-Chi: Anderson 6-20; Montgomery 3-11
Phil-Wsh: Leiter 3-7; Jackson 4-9
Cin-NY: Bailey 8-14; Montero 3-14
Mia-Atl: Conley 6-16; Fried 0-1
Pitt-StL: Kuhl 5-28; Martinez 11-28
SD-Az: Chacin 11-28; Godley 4-21
Colo-LA: Bettis 2-5; Wood 4-21
American League
Det-Tor: Bell 1-1; Anderson 0-2
TB-Bos: Andriese 6-13; Sale 2-28
Balt-Clev: Ynoa 0-0; Tomlin 6-22
NY-Tex: Severino 6-27; Cashner 6-23
Minn-KC: Berrios 5-21; Junis 3-11
Hst-A’s: Morton 3-21 Peacock 2-17; Gossett 2-13 Mengden 0-2
LA-Sea: Heaney 0-4; Albers 2-4
Interleague
SF-Chi: Samardzija 11-28; Shields 6-15
Umpires
National League
Mil-Chi: Over is 5-2 in last seven Kulpa games.
Phil-Wsh: Underdogs won four of last five Little games.
Cin-NY: Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Hudson games.
Mia-Atl: Over is 10-5 in last fifteen Whitson games.
Pitt-StL: Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Nelson games.
SD-Az: Under is 6-3 in last nine Baker games.
Colo-LA: Over is 6-2-1 in last nine May games.
American League
Det-Tor: Under is 13-5-1 in last 19 Fairchild games.
TB-Bos: Under is 5-3-1 in last nine Wolcott games.
Balt-Clev: Under is 5-2 in last seven Nauert games.
NY-Tex: Under is 7-3 in last ten Timmons games.
Minn-KC: Last four Fletcher games went over total.
Hst-A’s: Under is 6-2 in last eight Reyburn games. Under is 6-3 in last nine Gibson games.
LA-Sea: Last three Rackley games stayed under the total.
Interleague
SF-Chi: Under is 7-2 in last nine Scheurwater games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 79-56 AL, favorites +$291
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 146-128 AL, favorites +$326
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 68-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 142-125-10
Armadillosports.com
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Milwaukee at Chicago (-155)
The offenses didn’t show up on Friday night at Wrigley Field, but both starting pitches did, especially Jimmy Nelson. The Brewers came away with a 2-0 win and gained ground in the NL Central, but failed to gain any in the Wild Card hunt because the Rockies upset Yu Darvish and the Dodgers. This afternoon, Chase Anderson will toe the rubber for the Brewers and Mike Montgomery will go for the Cubbies.
My first impression of this line is that it is too high. The Brewers closed in the +110 range yesterday after opening in the +130 range. To me, the gap between Chase Anderson and Mike Montgomery doesn’t merit this type of line adjustment. Nelson is having a career year, but so is Anderson, who is getting back into a groove after missing time due to a strained oblique.
Anderson shows signs of negative regression, though, so the market will be against him. He has a 3.06 ERA with a 3.69 FIP and a 4.58 xFIP on the season. I’m not really worried about the xFIP, since he has carried a good HR/FB% throughout the season of 8.1 percent. His strikeout rate is way up and his command has gone way up as well. His 78.2 percent LOB% probably is on the high side, so I could see some regression towards his FIP, but pitching to a 3.69 FIP is roughly the equivalent of allowing three earned runs over seven innings of work. The Brewers offense is below league average at this point by a decent margin, but they were better against lefties than righties for a decent chunk of the season.
Mike Montgomery has a 3.38 ERA with a 4.07 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP. He’s made 11 starts and 27 relief appearances with a low strikeout rate, but good command and high ground ball rate. This will be Montgomery’s fourth straight start. He had a stretch of six straight starts in June and pitched okay. Over his last three starts, Montgomery has allowed just four runs on 15 hits across 18 innings of work, so he has been extremely effective, but he has also been very lucky from a BABIP standpoint and a LOB% standpoint. He only has nine strikeouts in those 18 innings, but has posted per game BABIPs of .235, .250, and .263.
There’s a little bit of value in the number on the Milwaukee side in my mind. I’m not sure if they win, but I think they win this game more than 41 percent of the time, so it’s a number worth grabbing.
Miami (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5
Well, I was very wrong on yesterday’s game, though I was right with regards to the line movement, for what that’s worth to everybody out there. Jose Urena pitched well, Mike Foltynewicz did not, and that was that. Today, the Marlins send southpaw Adam Conley to the bump. The Braves will counter with youngster Max Fried. This is just the second career MLB start for Fried.
Adam Conley was a guy that I had some higher hopes for this season. He posted a 3.85 ERA with a 4.84 xFIP last season, so he was a regression candidate, but I chalked that up to an extreme fly ball rate and a walk rate that could be improved. He had a 4.21 xFIP in 11 starts in 2015. Unfortunately, he has a 5.09 ERA with a 5.07 FIP and a 5.33 xFIP this season. His K% is way down, his walk rate is still too high, and his HR rate is a bit high. Conley had 11 of his 64 strikeouts in one start, so he doesn’t have a whole lot of strikeouts across his other 15 starts and one relief appearance. He has allowed six home runs over his last four outings with 11 runs allowed on 20 hits with a 9/6 K/BB ratio. Nothing really stands out about Conley. One thing that does stand out a little about the Braves is that they are a top-10 offense in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. That’s a surprising development.
Max Fried had a 5.92 ERA with a 4.08 FIP and a 3.78 xFIP in his 19 Double-A starts this season. Win-loss record means nothing, but it is interesting to point out that he was 2-11 in his time there. He had a decent strikeout rate, but walked a lot of hitters and didn’t strand many guys. He made two Triple-A starts and didn’t allow a run in six innings of work. There’s no telling what Fried will do in this spot. He made his first MLB start last time out and held the Cubs to one run on four hits in five innings of work with four strikeouts and three walks. I wouldn’t really expect similar results going forward.
This line is most likely a stay away, for the reasons that I mentioned yesterday, but if I had to do something with it, I would likely look towards the Miami side, simply because we have more of a track record on Conley. The Marlins are a below average offense against lefties this season, but Fried is also a below average, at this stage of his career, lefty.
Minnesota (-120) at Kansas City; Total: 9
Jose Berrios and Jake Junis are today’s starters at Kauffman Stadium for this AL Central showdown. The Twins are playing some exceptional baseball right now, though it has been overshadowed by what the Indians and Diamondbacks have been doing. Arizona actually lost yesterday, so their winning streak is over, but Cleveland’s is still in tact at 16 games.
Anyway, the Twins are fighting for a Wild Card spot and the Royals are now fighting to finish .500 because of how they have fallen off the pace. Berrios has hit a bit of a rough patch at this stage of the game. His ERA has ticked north of 4.00 at 4.01 with a 3.83 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP. He has almost a strikeout per inning and has some pretty decent peripherals, but he has been about the only Twins pitcher to not benefit from the team’s vastly improved defense. He has a 68 percent LOB%, which is how you get a higher ERA. Over his last four starts, Berrios has struck out 34 batters in 24.1 innings of work, so the quality of stuff is still very much there. In his last four outings that he has allowed runs, Berrios has posted LOB% marks of 52.6, 35.7, 39.5, and 57.7. So, he’s simply not falling in the favor of the sequencing gods of late. That’s something that should positively regress, especially with the command that he has shown this season. I’m looking to buy Berrios stock the rest of this month. Normally we worry about young arms wearing down at this point in the season, but Berrios still hasn’t eclipsed last year’s mark in innings and he threw 166.1 innings in 2015, so the Twins have done a good job of building him up from an innings standpoint.
Jake Junis has good stuff and has been able to show it off a bit lately. The rookie right-hander has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.86 xFIP. He has allowed just five runs on 17 hits in 16 innings of work over his last three starts with an 18/1 K/BB ratio. I sort of like the profile and Junis should be a fixture in the rotation as the Royals kick off their rebuild next season.
Still, even though I’m intrigued by the promise of Junis, Berrios is the better arm and the Twins are the better team. I’m content to lay the short price here, though I also have a lean to the under with Junis’s recent performances and the fact that he hasn’t hurt himself by walking batters or allowing dingers.
Los Angeles at Seattle (-110); Total: 9.5
Southpaws Andrew Heaney and Andrew Albers square off in Seattle tonight. Heaney’s four starts have not gone well this season. The left-hander has a 6.98 ERA with a 9.14 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP. It’s pretty obvious to see what the problems are here for Heaney. He’s given up too many home runs. In fact, Heaney has allowed an obscene number of home runs, 11 to be exact, in just 19.1 innings of work. It’s a crazy stat line because he has 24 strikeouts against just seven walks. He has only allowed 12 hits on balls in play. A 45.8 percent HR/FB% isn’t going to last forever, but it makes Heaney a really difficult guy to back in this spot. Heaney did have 10 of those strikeouts in one start against Oakland, though. He has seven walks in his last two starts. It’s just a really hard profile to back right now.
Andrew Albers has a 3.43 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.46 xFIP in his four starts for the Mariners. The journeyman left-hander was acquired after posting strong numbers with the Braves in 17 starts and nine relief appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett. He posted a 2.61/2.58/3.04 pitcher slash. He hasn’t been able to carry over the strikeout rate to the big leagues and has actually changed his batted ball distribution to be more of a fly ball guy, which is an odd development.
I’m looking at the over here. I’m not a believer in Albers’s profile at the MLB level. The Angels should be improving against lefties with some of their recent trades. The Mariners can clearly score some runs in bunches with Heaney’s command woes. I think we see some runs in the Pacific Northwest tonight.