MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, April 2nd, 2017

National League

Giants @ Diamondbacks
Bumgarner was 3-1, 3.97 in his last seven starts LY; seven of his last ten starts went over.
Greinke was 1-3, 6.35 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under.

Cubs @ Cardinals
Hendricks was 5-1, 2.05 in his last seven regular season starts; six of his last nine starts went over total.
Martinez was 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts; his last six starts all stayed under.

American League

Bronx @ Rays
Tanaka was 7-0, 2.28 in his last nine starts LY. Under was 8-5 in his last 13 starts.
Archer was 1-2, 3.62 in his last five starts LY. Under is 11-8 in his last 19 starts.

Record with this pitcher starting in 2016 regular season:

National League
SF-Az— Bumgarner 20-14; Greinke 16-10
Chi-StL— Hendricks 19-11; Martinez 17-14

American League
NYY-TB— Tanaka 23-8; Archer 10-23

Armadillosports.com

Cardinals host Cubs
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

Chicago’s quest to repeat as World Series champs begins with the first game of a three-game set in St. Louis on Sunday.

The Cubs are fresh off of their first World Series victory in 108 years, and they open up their season with a matchup with the rival Cardinals this weekend. Chicago is mostly bringing back the same team that won the championship last year, but the team did lose both OF Dexter Fowler (.276, 13 HR, 48 RBI in 2016) and LHP Aroldis Chapman (1.01 ERA, 16 SV in 2016). The Cubs will use an in-house replacement for Fowler this season, but they brought in former Royal RHP Wade Davis (1.87 ERA, 27 SV in 2016) to fill the spot at closer. The Cardinals are also bringing back a large majority of their lineup, but they actually signed Fowler away from the Cubs. That will make for an interesting dynamic on Sunday, but there isn’t expected to be any bad blood between Fowler and his former team. The starters in this game are set to be LHP Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, 197 K in 2016) for the Cubs and RHP Carlos Martinez (16-9, 3.04 ERA, 174 K in 2016) for the Cardinals. Last season, Chicago was 10-9 in 19 meetings with St. Louis and 10 of those games went Under the total. Both teams are going to be close to full strength, so injuries likely won’t factor into the outcome of this one.

Last year, Jon Lester absolutely dominated the Cardinals in three starts against the team. Lester pitched a total of 20.2 innings in those games, and he had a 2-0 record with a 0.87 ERA. He averaged 7.0 strikeouts per game in those three meetings with St. Louis, and he’ll be hoping to get his team off to a 1-0 start on Sunday. Offensively, this Chicago team is as explosive as any team in baseball and there are a few guys that should be more than capable of giving Carlos Martinez trouble on Sunday. Three of those players would be 1B Anthony Rizzo (.292 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI in 2016), 2B Ben Zobrist (.272 BA, 18 HR, 76 RBI in 2016) and OF Jason Heyward (.230 BA, 7 HR, 49 RBI in 2016). Rizzo is 7-for-26 with three homers and seven RBI against Martinez in his career, and he is coming off of a career year in 2016. Look for him to do his best to get his season off to a good start on Sunday. Zobrist and Heyward, meanwhile, are a combined 12-for-30 with two doubles and three RBI against Martinez. Zobrist is working his way back from a neck injury, but he should be fine on Sunday. Heyward, meanwhile, is coming off of the worst season of his life, and he’ll be hoping to turn things around in 2017. A matchup with a pitcher he has done well against in his career should give him some early confidence.

The Cardinals struggled to hit Jon Lester last season, but there are a lot of quality bats in this lineup that should be able to figure him out on Sunday. One guy that does have some personal success against the lefty is C Yadier Molina (.307 BA, 8 HR, 58 RBI in 2016). In his career versus Lester, Molina is 8-for-22 with three doubles and four RBI. He’ll be looking to get right back to those successful ways on Sunday. Two other guys to watch out for in the lineup are SS Aledmys Diaz (.300 BA, 17 HR, 65 RBI in 2016) and OF Stephen Piscotty (.273 BA, 22 HR, 85 RBI in 2016). Both are expected to make huge jumps in 2017, and they’d love to help the Cardinals earn a big win over their rivals on Sunday. The team will, however, need Carlos Martinez to pitch well in order to earn a victory in this one. He struggled against Chicago last season, going just 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA in five starts against the team.

AL Win Total - Best Bets
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

AL EAST: BEST BET...Fans at Camden Yards are advised to enjoy 3B Manny Machado while they can; with free agency looming after 2018, this could be Machado's last full season for the Baltimore Orioles (80.5). The same applies to closer extraordinaire Zach Britton, who posted some of the best relief numbers in history (47-for-47 saves, 0.54 ERA) a year ago. For the time being, however, both are still in the Oriole fold, as is last year's MLB homer leader, DH Mark Trumbo, who socked 47 dingers in 2016 and re-signed in the offseason. As usual, for the Birds to make a playoff run depends upon consistency in a so-so rotation, though righties Kevin Gausman and Chris Tillman are dependable options. Mostly, however, we expect the O's to keep playing hard for Buck Showalter, who has been able to get his troops to regularly punch above their weight in recent seasons. We have a hard time envisioning a 9-loss drop from last year's 89 wins. It's an "over" for us at Camden Yards, still worth the visit if you can quickly get in and out of downtown Baltimore and allow enough time to enjoy some of Boog Powell's BBQ and Eutaw Street, or some of the sinful sausages at the Polock Johnny's stand on the concourse.

OTHERS: Sacrilege? So some might accuse us for not jumping on the bandwagon of the Boston Red Sox (92.5), expected by many to post 2016 Cubs-like numbers after adding fireball lefty Chris Sale in a deal that required Dave Dombrowksi to part with many prized prospects to the Chisox, including touted Cuban 3B Yoan Moncada. The thought is that adding Sale to a rotation that already included 2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, plus David Price, makes Boston an automatic favorite in the AL. We're not so sure, because Price disappointed in his first full season at Fenway Park a year ago, and Sale was a bit erratic in 2016, too. Meanwhile there is a Big Papi void after David Ortiz retired; we'll see if FA addition Mitch Moreland can fill those large shoes. And with expected new set-up man Tyler Thornburg (acquired from Milwaukee) sidelined for much of March in Fort Myers, the bullpen still has a few questions. Plenty still to like in Boston, especially with RF Mookie Betts now at an elite level, but we're not sure the Bosox are ready to justify the hype, which is even more amped-up than usual. It's an "under" for us at Fenway.

Is losing Edwin Encarnacion and his 42 homers to the Indians in free agency enough to keep the Toronto Blue Jays (84.5) out of the playoffs for the first time since 2014? Well, maybe, especially if DH Kendry Morales, signed from the Royals to be Encarnacion's effective replacement, can't post somewhat-similar numbers. But this is still a solid lineup featuring dangerous power, with 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Troy Tulowitzki, RB Jose Bautista, and Morales all potential 30+ homer guys, and C Russell Martin remains a steadying influence behind the plate and a very productive offensive force for a backstop. Meanwhile, Kevin Pillar is almost non-pariel on defense in CF. The staff remains more than serviceable with Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada a solid 1-2 at the top of the rotation, and Roberto Osuna (36 saves) an effective closer. More reasons to look "over" at Rogers Centre, with the locals perhaps happily distracted the first few weeks of the season if the Leafs actually make the Stanley Cup playoffs.

In the past, the Tampa Bay Rays (77.5) have proven they can compete with the big spenders in this division. But not last season, and we wonder how the current collection at the Trop can bump up ten wins for manager Kevin Cash from last year's 68-94 debacle. Simply, Tampa Bay does not score enough runs, and we doubt adding OF Colby Rasmus from the Astros is enough to jump-start the attack, especially with former All-Star 3B Evan Longoria becoming more injury-prone in recent years. There is some hope with a pitching staff full of live arms, though the Rays have had annual injury problems in their rotation, and the much-maligned Chris Archer pitched in some terrible luck last season while recording an MLB-worst 19 losses. Though Ex-Nats C Wilson Ramos, who might not be available until May as he continues to recover from last year's knee injury, might be a worthwhile addition. If all goes well, Tampa Bay might make a push toward .500. But lack of depth, and the unlikelihood the Rays will (or can) be a buyer at the trade deadline just in case they are still in the playoff hunt into August, is further discouragement. We're expecting an "under" at the Trop but looking forward to entertaining play-by-play work as always on Fox Sports Sun from one of our favorites, Dewayne Staats.

We're not used to seeing the once-proud New York Yankees (82.5) as sellers at the trade deadline, as they were last July, though Joe Girardi righted the ship down the stretch to at least get the Bronx Bombers to the edge of the AL Wild Card mix. Part of the late surge was due to rookie C Gary Sanchez, who posted some Ruthian-like numbers late in the season when accounting for 20 homers in just 53 games. Now, with promising 1B Greg Bird back in the fold after missing last season with shoulder surgery, and raw RF Aaron Judge possessing enormous power, the Yanks are relying more on young talent than usual. Where New York eventually lands this season, however, largely depends upon a rotation full of uncertainties. Righty Masahiro Tanaka remains the presumptive ace and has enjoyed a solid Grapefruit League in Tampa. But none of the others in the projected rotation (including a past-his-prime CC Sabathia and erratic Michael Pineda as the 2-3 starters) recorded a winning record last season. It is fair to ask how many leads will be turned over to closer Aroldis Chapman, who returns in a high-priced FA deal after being effectively loaned to the Cubs for the stretch drive last season. Lots of variables to consider in The Bronx, where we will simply pass and see what transpires.

AL CENTRAL: BEST BET...Even before unexpected developments in the offseason, it was fair to ask if the championship window had closed for the Kansas City Royals (76.5), who dropped from back-to-back World Series visits and the crown in 2015 to a mere .500 last season. Then young fireballer Yordano Ventura tragically perished in a winter auto accident, adding a pall around Kauffman Stadium. There are some other less-sobering reasons for concern, with the likes of 1B Eric Hosmer, CF Lorenzo Cain, 3B Mike Moustakas, and SS Alcides Escobar all in contract years, which creates the possibility of a fire sale at the trade deadline. Moreover, last year's homer leader Kendrys Morales moved to the Blue Jays in free agency, and relief ace Wade Davis, one of the cornerstones of the lights-out bullpens of the World Series years, was traded to the Cubs in a deal that brought OF Jorge Soler. So why aren't we bearish on the Royals? Because, if there's no midseason dispersal, the core of the roster is still similar to recent playoff years, the team generally doesn't beat itself in the field, C Salvador Perez is now a perennial All-Star, and the rotation appears a bit underrated, especially staff ace Danny Duffy (12-3 last season). Kelvin Herrera also remains a functional, and at times dominant, closer. Mostly, however, it's that low win total that gets us thinking "over" at the Big K when we're not dreaming of the burnt ends at nearby Arthur Bryant's, adjacent to where the old KC Municipal Stadium once stood.

OTHERS: The Detroit Tigers (82.5) appear a couple of injuries away from falling out of contention. Unfortunately, with an aging lineup, that's a significant concern, especially with key cogs like SP Jordan Zimmerman, 3B Nick Castellanos, and RF J.D. Martinez (hurt again this spring) all missing significant time a year ago, and the likes of 1B Miguel Cabrera and DH Victor Martinez also acknowledged injury risks. If Zimmerman can't bounce back from last year's oblique problems, the rotation will have to be stabilized by youngsters around 1-2 starters Justin Verlander (who enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign in 2016) and last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, while the days of Francisco Rodriguez (along with the Cubs' John Lackey the last two active players from the Angels' 2002 World Series champs) as a top-end closer are way back in the rear-view mirror. True, this is still a scary-looking lineup, but a key injury or two could cause everything to unravel in a hurry. That's a risk we don't want to take as we project "under" at Comerica Park while looking forward to our next visit and the camaraderie with the pleasant fans across the street at Hockeytown before the games.

The Minnesota Twins (74.5) dropped off of the radar a season ago after a surprising 83-win trip in 2015 under then first-year skipper Paul Molitor. But last year was a 103-loss mess exacerbated by an injury-devastated pitching staff that posted an AL-worst 5.08 ERA (ouch!). Is a quick recovery in order? Perhaps, though it's hard to get too excited about a rotation in which Ervin Santana and Hector Santiago are the closest things to aces. But if healthy, the starters might be serviceable, as could be the bullpen if closer Glen Perkins, who has not pitched much this spring in the Grapefruit League, can stay off the DL. We suspect, however, that touted youngsters like OFs Bryan Buxton, Eddie Rosario, and Max Kepler could be ready to flourish, and that power-laden Miguel Sano and his 270 pounds can make the transition to 3B. Keeping 2B Brian Dozier, off of a career year when hitting 42 homers, in the fold was a plus, and 1B Joe Mauer, a onetime annual MVP candidate, is a veteran presence in the lineup. We're sticking out our necks a bit, but will be paying attention to the entertaining Fox Sports North announcing combo of Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven to describe an "over" for us at Target Field.

Looking for the most-likely seller at the trade deadline? That would probably be the Chicago White Sox (69.5), who confirmed they were in full rebuild mode in the offseason when trading away SP Chris Sale and CF Adam Eaton for prospects. It would stand to reason, then, that the likes of OF Melky Cabrera, 3B Todd Frazier, and 2B Brett Lawrie, all of whom are likely to have some midseason suitors, plus a number of other vets, are probably the next to go. Now presiding over this re-boot is new manager Rick Renteria, who can't seem to catch a break, moved aside a few miles north at Wrigley Field after one season with the before-they-blossomed Cubs in 2014, replaced by Joe Maddon. Oh, what could have been for Renteria. For the time being, South Side fans have to be satisfied with watching youngsters such as SS Tim Anderson, 3B Yoan Moncada (from the Bosox in the Sale deal), and RHPs Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez (both from the Nats in the Eaton trade) mature collectively. We hope they're patient at whatever they're calling The Cell these days (for the record, it's now Guaranteed Rate Field). It's an "under" for us with the Chisox, though we remain entertained by the play-by-play combo of Hawk Harrelson and Steve Stone, who make homer-ism almost tolerable.

After coming oh-so-close to their first World Series crown since 1948, the Cleveland Indians (92.5) appear poised to do what their AL Central rival Royals did in 2014-15 when going to the Fall Classic back-to-back in 2014 & '15. The Tribe added even more pop to their already-formidable lineup in the offseason when signing Edwin Encarnacion (42 HRs in 2016) from the Blue Jays; he'll now rotate between 1B and DH with Carlos Santana, who belted 34 round-trippers himself last season. And CF Michael Brantley is now healthy after missing almost all of last season. Still, Terry Francona has to fit a few new pieces into the puzzle after supporting-cast characters such as Rajai Davis, Mike Napoli, and Coco Crisp exited after playing key roles down the stretch and into the playoffs. And the Tribe's rotation is full of up-and-down components, though Corey Kluber (18-9 last season) is a past Cy Young winner. Still a lot to like at Progressive Field, especially the dynamite young left side of the infield (SS Francisco Lindor & 3B Jose Ramirez), plus a bullpen anchored by untouchable set-up man Andrew Miller and reliable closer Cody Allen. We think Cleveland gets back to the playoffs and maybe the World Series...we're just not sure the Indians get to 93 wins. So we'll take a pass on the Tribe.

AL WEST: BEST BET...We feel we have to offer a bit of a disclaimer on the Oakland A's (73.5), who we inadvertently saw three times in as many days last week in our annual whirlwind trip to the Cactus League in Phoenix. The A's never trailed in any of the games we saw while looking like the 1927 Yankees at the plate, lashing out 28 runs in that 3-game span! We're relatively sure that won't translate into the regular season But the everyday lineup has a functional look about it, with CF Rajai Davis, 3B Trevor Plouffe, and OF Matt Joyce all more-than-serviceable offseason additions, LF Khris Davis off of an unexpected 42-homer campaign, and promising Ryon Healy ready to barge into the lineup, either at 3B, 1B, or DH. An unexpected run at .500 will require one-time staff ace Sonny Gray to recover quickly from last year's back and forearm injuries that contributed to an alarming dip in form. But Billy Beane is nothing if not resourceful, and his farm system continues to produce MLB-quality pitching options for manager Bob Melvin. Flying well beneath the radar, the A's appear a good "over" to us at that modest total, as we look forward to our next visit to the Coliseum, not as bad to watch a ballgame as its detractors suggest (unless the crowd hits 20,000 or so and you have to navigate the too-small and too-crowded one and only concourse at the stadium).

OTHERS: No matter having MLB's best player (CF Mike Trout) on the roster, the LA Angels of Anaheim (79.5) couldn't get out of their way last season as they dipped to 14 games below .500, which for a time had the rumor mill whirring that either longtime skipper Mike Scioscia was ready to move elsewhere of his own accord, or that owner Arte Moreno might himself hit the eject button on his longtime skipper. Fortunately for Halo fans, neither of those happened, though the on-field product continues to be hamstrung by some of Moreno's dubious personnel decisions of recent seasons (the wasted Josh Hamilton deal comes immediately to mind). Adding 2B Danny Espinosa from the Nats and LF Cameron Maybin from the Tigers should provide some needed upgrades to the lineup, but how much more Scioscia can squeeze out of aging DH Albert Pujols (another Moreno special) remains to be seen. And we haven't even gotten to the real concern, pitching, as Scioscia crosses his fingers that Garrett Richards, the only potential ace on the staff, can return all of the way from torn elbow ligaments, while the bullpen is a question mark after closer Huston Street (6.45 ERA in 2016) imploded last season and deals with back strain this March in Tempe. Trout or not, too many questions on this pitching staff to get overly excited about the Halos, so it's an "under" for us at the Big A.

If the Texas Rangers (84.5) get back to the playoffs, they'll want to avoid the Blue Jays, who have KO'd them in the postseason the past two years. Between those playoff exits, the only KO for Texas against Toronto was 2B Rougned Odor landing a straight right to the jaw of the Blue Jays' Jose Bautista in a brawl last May. But the Rangers would rather punch their way to a postseason series win than rely on Odor's fists, and we frankly don't see why they ought to drop 11 wins from last year's 95-67 mark that was good enough to run away with the West. There was some outflow in free agency (Ian Desmond, Mitch Moreland, Carlos Beltran) from the everyday lineup, but Mike Napoli returns for another tour of duty at 1B and DH, and Texas now gets a full season from last year's trade additions CF Carlos Gomez and C Jonathan Lucroy. There are questions in the rotation beyond Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish, though ex-Padre and Marlin Andrew Cashner has flashed some upside in the past. It looks like an "over" for us in Arlington as we contemplate having the nerve to order a "Boomstick" (check it out online) the next time we get to Globe Life Park.

Something has been missing from the Seattle Mariners (85.5) in recent years, as everything has seemed in place for a playoff visit (which hasn't happened at Safeco Field since the 116-win season of 2001), only to fall short. This year, there will be no excuses, as offseason additions SS Jean Segura (trade with D-backs), 1B/DH Danny Valencia (trade with A's), and LF Jerrod Dyson (trade with Royals) could add some electricity to the offense, and, in the case of Dyson, contribute to potential elite defensive outfield alignment that also includes fleet CF Leonys Martin & promising RF Mitch Haniger. But there is not much power at the plate in those outfielders, and we are unconvinced that adding Drew Smyly (trade with Rays) and Yovani Gallardo (trade with O's) has really bolstered a pitching rotation whose parts seem always greater than its sum, especially with the performance of "King Felix" Hernandez having dropped off considerably last season. The potential is there to break the 16-year playoff drought. But we've seen Seattle underachieve too much in the past to jump on the bandwagon...at least not yet. It's a no-play for us at Safeco Field.

Nearly a half-century ago, after the Houston Astros (89.5) reached the .500 level for the first time in 1969, the hype for 1970 was off the charts. "Doing the Houston Pennant Bounce" was one of the headlines into '70, but the Astros flopped, and would not reach their first playoffs for another ten years. Last year was another sobering development for the "Astro-nomicals" (as the one and only Reds play-by-play man Marty Brennaman refers to them) as they dipped to 84-78 after qualifying unexpectedly for the playoffs the year before. Did Houston simply arrive a year or two too soon in 2015, and might 2017 have always been the proper target year for the breakout? Maybe, but we need a bit more evidence that one-time ace lefty Dallas Keuchel, the AL Cy Young Award winner two years ago, has recovered from last season's shoulder injury that contributed to him being a liability as his ERA dipped to 4.55. Keuchel was still in recovery mode in March at West Palm Beach. The rotation thus threatens more work on an often over-taxed bullpen, though manager A.J. Hinch had an effective closer-by-committee (Ken Giles, Luke Gregorson, and Will Harris) last season. The Astros are solid up the middle, especially after adding C Brian McCann in a trade with the Yankees, to go along with 2B Jose Altuve (last year's AL batting champ), SS Carlos Correa, and CF George Springer, while ex-A's and Dodgers RF Josh Reddick looks like a useful FA addition. Pitching questions, however, have us not ready to make a call in Houston, so we pass instead.

NL Win Total - Best Bets
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

NL EAST: BEST BET...Here's a shocker for those who tuned out the Atlanta Braves (73.5) after their painfully slow start last April. In their play following the All-Star break, the Brav-os were above .500 (really!), which earned interim manager Brian Snitker the job on a full-time basis after Fredi Gonzalez had been humanely relieved of duties early last season. Now things are looking up considerably in the Showcase City of the South as the Braves move into their new SunTrust Park out on the I-285 perimeter, with a new adjacent retail/dining/entertainment area (The Battery) and much better access and convenience for their majority of fans who reside north of downtown, no longer having to make the awkward trek to Turner Field (soon to become the new home of Georgia State's football team) in a less-desirable part of town. For the first time in a while, there is now some real protection in the lineup for 1B Freddie Freeman, with ex-Reds vet 2B Brandon Phillips a handy addition to the batting order and one-time near MVP Matt Kemp still with enough fuel in his tank to be a force. How much progress the Braves make will also depend on 23-year-old SS Dansby Swanson, the top draft pick by the D-backs two years ago, and a veteran staff with several new stop-gaps (40-somethings R.A. Dickey & Bartolo Colon, plus ex-Cardinal Jaime Garcia). Whatever, Atlanta no longer has the look of a pushover, and should avoid a third straight 90-loss season. It's an "over" for us at the sparkling new SunTrust Park.

OTHERS: Sadly, the Miami Marlins (76.5) might take a while longer to recover from the shocking passing last September of star pitcher Jose Fernandez, who perished in a late-night boating accident after having become the face of the franchise and an iconic presence, especially with his ties to the local Cuban community. Now void of a true ace on the staff, the Marlins scrambled in the offseason to add journeymen arms such as Edinson Volquez, Jeff Locke, and Dan Straily, who might be able to fill rotation spots, but none being close to what Fernandez once provided. On the plus side, getting catalyst 2B Dee Gordon for a full season after he was suspended for 80 games a year ago figures to be a plus, while the outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton is All-Star caliber. Stanton and his enormous power, however, have been prone to injury, and neither he nor Gordon were particularly productive last season. We almost feel bad to be projecting an "under" with the Marlins, but that's how we see it in Miami.

Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies (73.5) made the jump to 71 wins, good enough for an easy "over" in 2016 and perhaps a sign of better things to come at Citizens Bank Park after the bottom had dropped out of the operation in the previous few seasons. It took a while, but the Phils have finally moved on from the World Series years, letting go of 1B Ryan Howard, the last link after Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins had similarly departed. There are still questions about the offense, which scored the fewest runs (610) in the bigs last season, not being near playoff-caliber. But it should be more productive this season after adding vet Howie Kendrick (penciled into LF) from the Dodgers and All-Star RF Michael Saunders from the Blue Jays. With up-and-comers such as CF Odubel Herrera, 3B Makiel Franco, and 1B Tommy Joseph all posting career-best numbers a year ago, the arrow still points upward in Philly. How close the Phils might get to .500 this season probably relies on a pitching staff that will need new addition Clay Buchholz to resemble his best days in Boston and not his rather ineffective form (4.63 ERA) of last season. We'll also see if manager Pete Mackanin can squeeze a few more innings out of potential dominator Vince Velasquez (likely on another innings count). The NL East is a tough neighborhood, but we expect the Phils to continue their recent upward trajectory and get "over" while we plot our next visit to CBP and debate whether we go for the "Schmitter" down the left-field line or a spicy turkey leg from Greg Luzinski's "Bulls BBQ" in Ashburn Alley.

The New York Mets (88.5) scrambled their way back into the playoffs last season after looking hopelessly out of contention into August, sparking new speculation over manager Terry Collins' future. Unfortunately, after that whirlwind run down the stretch, New York ran into the Giants and Madison Bumgarner in the Wild Card game, but the optimism remains. Collins has a nice problem with a potential logjam of outfielders due in part to re-signing Yoenis Cespedes after adding Jay Bruce from the Reds midway thru last season. While there are plenty of options in the outfield, the infield is a concern if 1B Lucas Duda, 2B Neil Walker, and 3B David Wright once again succumb to injuries, as a year ago. Injuries were also a factor with a pitching staff full of live arms but with Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz all finishing 2016 on the shelf with season-ending surgeries. They're penciled into the rotation for the new season, but there are durability concerns, and who knows when hard-throwing Noah "Thor" Syndergaard and his violent delivery might be the next to experience similar arm problems. With all hands (and arms) on deck, the Mets can get back to the playoffs. But there are a lot of trip wires by La Guardia, and winning 89 gets very iffy if more injuries arise. We're reluctantly looking "under" at Citi Field, though planning a visit (and a trip to the Shake Shack in right field) sometime this summer.

Fans of the Washington Nationals (90.5) are still mostly happy just to have a team and a nice ballpark in D.C., and have not yet gotten to the point where they are furious over a playoff exit. That might change soon, however, as the Nats have yet to win a postseason series after a bitter loss to the Dodgers in last October's NLDS, the third such playoff whiff by Washington since 2012. Hellbent to finally take the next step while the core of the team remains together, the Nats added some interesting pieces in the offseason, getting CF Adam Eaton in a trade with the Chisox (allowing last year's discovery Trae Turner to move to his more-normal SS position) and signing FA C Matt Wieters, who, if healthy, gives Dusty Baker a potential All-Star behind the plate. There is so much depth in the rotation featuring Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg that GM Mike Rizzo could afford to offload top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito in the Eaton trade, though there are some concerns about 1B Ryan Zimmerman and RF Bryce Harper, who both endured down seasons a year ago. If the East is tougher, as we expect, with the Braves and Phils continuing to improve, getting over 90 wins might be a struggle. The Nats can do it, but we'd rather take a pass in D.C. and get ready for our annual visit in June, where we can look forward to a chili half-smoke from the famous Ben's Chili Bowl down the third base line.

NL CENTRAL: BEST BET... We usually don't like to stick our necks out too far and go "under" with teams that appear undervalued and "over" with overvalued teams. We make an exception, however, with the Cincinnati Reds (69.5), whose Big Red Machine days must seem like ancient history to any longtime fans in the tri-state area. While there are things to like in the everyday lineup, where CF Billy Hamilton is the most devastating base-stealer in the game and the consistent excellence of 1B Joey Votto was complemented by the emergence of LF Adam Duvall (and his 33 homers) last season, there are serious concerns elsewhere. Especially a pitching staff that looks better suited to AAA (AA?), more so with ace Anthony DeSclafani, perhaps the only legit MLB rotation piece on the team, hurting this March in Goodyear and possibly opening the season on the DL. Curiously, manager Brian Price, 70 games under .500 the past three seasons, remains on the job despite not being able to get the team to punch above its weight. Expect vet play-by-play man Marty Brennaman to become even more acerbic than usual this summer as the Reds endure another "under" at Great American Ballpark, where the food (and the Skyline Chili coneys) at least remains good.

OTHERS: For the first time in a while, the St. Louis Cardinals (84.5) missed the playoffs last season. Indeed, the dropoff of the Redbirds and Pirates effectively cleared the way for the Cubs to run away with the Central. But the Cards stole a valuable piece from the Cubbies when signing CF Dexter Fowler away from Wrigley Field in free agency, giving St. Louis the legit leadoff man it lacked a season ago. Hurting the Cubs while helping themselves in one single deal appears a good bit of business for the Cards. To contend again, Mike Matheny will need a bounce-back season from 2B Kolten Wong, and for LF Randall Grichuk to develop a bit more consistency after twice being demoted to AAA a year ago. It will also help if SS Aledmys Diaz proves his early success last season (.433 batting his first month) was no mirage. Meanwhile, with Alex Reyes already on the shelf for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the rotation desperately needs more durability from Michael Wacha, who looked to be a budding star when first called up in 2013 but has been limited by recurring shoulder problems the past few years. The addition of Fowler, however, should be enough in itself to at least help match last year's 86 wins, and, with a few breaks, the Redbirds do a bit better and perhaps get back to the playoffs. It's an "over" for us at Busch Stadium.

The Milwaukee Brewers (69.5) have endured a painful descent into irrelevance the past couple of years, and we're not sure the decline has bottomed out. Not enough pitching at the disposal of skipper Craig Counsell, who will be hoping for no regression from starters Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, who became staff aces as rookies a year ago. We've seen the sophomore slump before from many pitchers, and the back end of the rotation is filled with a lot of mediocrity (Wily Peralta, Matt Garza, Jimmy Nelson). The Brewers are also gambling that 1B Eric Thames, signed to a significant FA deal after blasting the pitchers in the South Korean league the past couple of years, translates some of those power numbers to MLB, but we're not convinced. There is hope in the pipeline of the farm system, though most project the best of those to be a year or two away from making any significant contributions (keep an eye on OFs Lewis Brinson an Brett Phillips). Another long year at Miller Park, so we're looking "under" with the Brew Crew, while advising fans everywhere to get Sirius radio to at least listen to vet play-by-play man Bob Uecker while we still can.

We admit to missing the mark by a wide margin last season with the Chicago Cubs (95.5), who broke fast and galloped all the way to their first World Series win in over 100 years. Though we like to remind their fans, many of whom apparently believing that baseball time began in 2016, that World Series winners are crowned every year. It will again help the Cubs to play a full load of division games vs. the Brewers and Reds, though to get to 100 wins again might be tougher if the Pirates, who played a pigeon for Joe Maddon's team a year ago, and Cardinals bounce back with more-respectable seasons, as many expect. We admit to nit-picking a bit, but the exchange of Dexter Fowler (to St. Louis as a FA) for Jon Jay in CF might be a net minus, RF Jason Heyward looks like he could continue to be a bust (especially at the plate), and putting the barreling Kyle Schwarber in LF is a potential danger to other outfielders and any infielders who venture too far out onto the grass. We don't think the bullpen suffers from Aroldis Chapman's FA move back to the Yankees with Koji Uehara over as a FA from the Bosox and fireballer Wade Davis acquired from the Royals via trade. And the rotation remains deep with three legit Cy Young candidates (Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Kyle Hendricks). If the Central is a bit tougher this season, however, the Cubs will likely drop from last year's 103 wins, but not enough to get us to project another "under" at Wrigley Field. This time, we're just going to pass with the Cubs and their MLB-highest win hurdle.

It was a big letdown in 2016 for the Pittsburgh Pirates (82.5), who fell hard from playoff berths the previous three seasons. A dropoff in the production of Andrew McCutchen was one reason; Clint Hurdle is hoping a move from CF to RF will reduce a bit of the wear-and-tear on McCutch, whose defense suffered last year. But McCutchen is only 30, so we're willing to give him a mulligan for 2016, especially as he dealt with nagging injuries that might have also caused some of the dramatic decline in his offensive numbers. More of a concern are the off-field problems for 3B Jung Ho Kang, recently denied a Visa due to legal troubles in native South Korea, which could potentially keep him out the entirety of 2017. The latter is a blow the Bucs might not be able to afford, as it potentially stretches their depth from the outset. There is also going to be a close watch on staff ace Gerrit Cole, limited to 21 starts because of elbow problems last season, while young arms like Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow are being counted upon to fill back-of-the-rotation slots. If McCutchen bounces back, he is part of an OF that still might be the NL's best with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, but the Kang situation and pitching questions create a lot of ifs at PNC Park. We'd rather pass on the Bucs and simply sit back and wait for Steve Blass and Bob Walk to analyze the action in the TV booth alongside Greg Brown to keep abreast of developments.

NL WEST: BEST BET... We have watched a lot of baseball over the past half-century and can say that any team that could hit like last year's Arizona Diamondbacks (78.5) should not have endured such a difficult slog to reach a mere 69 wins. Losing slugging 1B Paul Goldschmidt late in the season to injury didn't help, but the rot had already set in by that point in one of the most complete and absolute fundamental MLB breakdowns we can recall. Which is staining the rep of team supremo Tony LaRussa, who has made changes with his GM (Mike Hazen in from the Bosox, and Dave Stewart out) and manager (Torey Lovullo in from Boston along with Hazen, replacing Chip Hale). All after a major remake of the pitching rotation backfired last season, partly because high-priced Zack Greinke failed to justify such a big-bucks expenditure, with other starters also failing to plug leaks in the dike as the rotation ERA was an NL-worst 5.19. The bullpen wasn't much better, and we doubt 40-year-old Fernando Rodney, a high-wire act throughout his career and expected to be the closer after being signed from the Marlins as a FA, is an answer to relief corps woes, either. The apparent culture change is a plus, and Arizona still has some very live bats (Goldschmidt, 3B Jake Lamb, LF Yasmany Tomas, and a now-healthy CF A.J. Pollock), but the D-backs did so much wrong last season that a jump of nine wins seems a bit much. It's an "under" for us at Chase Field.

OTHERS: Is any team among the "little three" of the NL West about to rise and challenge the Dodgers and Giants? Obviously, we don't think it is going to be the D-backs, but it might be the Colorado Rockies (80.5), who are even dreaming about making their first playoff run since 2009. This might be the breakout year in Denver, as the long-time Colorado staple of offense appears to finally be complemented by a serviceable pitching staff. Young starters Jon Gray, Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood, and Tyler Anderson could be anchors of the rotation well into the next decade, and bullpen depth ought to be improved if ex-Royals closer Greg Holland has recovered from a recent series of injuries. If the pitching falters, the Rocks can still take their chances in slugfests with a loaded lineup that has added Ian Desmond (penciled in at 1B once beyond the hand injury that has limited him this March at Talking Stick) to go along with boppers like 3B Nolan Arenado (41 HR in 2016, and not all of those in the Denver altitude) and OFs Charlie Blackman and Carlos Gonzalez. Expect Colorado to leave the D-backs and Padres in the dust and instead keep company with the Dodgers and Giants in the top half of the NL West, so we look "over" at Coors Field.

With the Chargers abandoning town for L.A. (or Carson, to be more exact, for the next two years), the San Diego Padres (65.5) remain as the lone big-league team in America's Finest City. But that big-league label is being stretched a bit, as a long slide into mediocrity and even worse shows no sign of abating at Petco Park. To address the myriad of problems from last year's 68-94 mess, San Diego went out and signed a collection of past-sell-by-date pitchers such as Jered Weaver, Jhoulys Chacin, and Trevor Cahill, all of whom expected to be featured in a rotation that lists well-traveled Clayton Richard as its ace after one half-season of effective work. Meanwhile, the offense is excited about rookie RF Hunter Renfroe, being promoted like he's a budding All-Star after impressing in a short 11-game MLB stint last September. Renfroe is a vet, however, compared to touted new CF Manuel Margot, who played all of 10 games last season. Though the future looks bright for each, expecting them to carry an offensive load so early in their careers could easily backfire. This looks like the NL team most likely to lose 100 games, so we look "under" at Petco, saddened that we no longer get to hear vet play-by-play man Dick Enberg, who retired after last season.

The San Francisco Giants (87.5) seemed poised to make a dramatic rally in the NLDS vs. the Cubs before their bullpen, a season-long issue, imploded in the 9th inning of Game Four, allowing Chicago to steal a win and the series. In response, GM Brian Sabean predictably went shopping for the best-available closer in the FA market and found Mark Melancon, recently of the Nats and previously the Bucs, who should be an upgrade after the relief corps blew a staggering 30 of 73 save opportunities last season. Youngsters, however, are initially being tasked with set-up roles, which also often betrayed Bruce Bochy's bullpen last season. What the Giants lacked in their relievers they made up on defense in 2016, leading the bigs with a near-perfect .988 fielding percentage. And the rotation, potentially dominant at the top with "Mad Bum" and Johnny Cueto, and functional in the 3 and 4 spots with Matt Moore and Jeff Samardzija, can match the Dodgers, Cubs, or any NL team. To wrest the NL West away from the Dodgers for the first time since 2012 might require RF Hunter Pence to stay healthy for something approaching a full season. Keeping vet CF Denard Span off of the DL is key as well, but SF does have perhaps the best DP combo in the NL with Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford, while C Buster Posey, though off a down 2016, is still a four-time All-Star. As long as key injuries are avoided, there is still enough juice on this roster to make another title run, so we look "over" at AT&T Park, as we get ready to enjoy another season of the incomparable play-by-play work of Jon Miller on blowtorch flagship KNBR 680, and the entertaining Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow on the Giants' CSN Bay Area telecasts.

Referring back to the Padres and Dick Enberg's retirement, the sounds out of Chavez Ravine aren't going to be the same anymore, either, with forever play-by-play man Vin Scully finally hanging 'em up after last season for the Los Angeles Dodgers (93.5). You've probably heard replacement Joe Davis on Fox Sports telecasts in a variety of sports the past few years. Talk about big shoes to fill! On the field, the Blue pattern of regular-season dominance (four straight NL West titles) and playoff failures could easily continue this season. After all, even if Colorado improves, as we envision, the Dodgers still have a load of games vs. NL West lightweights Arizona and San Diego to pad their win totals. Last season the Dodgers got to 91 wins even with Clayton Kershaw limited to just 21 starts due to injuries. A full season from Kershaw should add a few more wins, and there is plenty of depth in the rotation that will nonetheless have to deal with an innings limit for promising Julio Urias, who flashed lots of upside a year ago. Importantly, GM Andrew Friedman was able to re-sign key cogs 3B Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, while it is hoped that FA addition 2B Logan Forsythe adds important right-handed power against lefties, an area in which the Blue continued to struggle last season, with mercurial RF Yasiel Puig still dogged by inconsistency. Still, getting to 94 wins will be a bit of a chore, and, while LA could do it, it could also fall short, too. We'd rather pass at Dodger Stadium, while we urge fans of the Blue to give new team voice Joe Davis a chance.