MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, April 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Pirates @ Marlins
Kuhl is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts (over 2-2).
Koehler is 1-1, 5.14 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Pirates won five of last seven games; they’re 5-6 on road (under 9-2). Miami is 3-7 in its last ten games; they’re 4-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Mets @ Nationals
Syndergaard hasn’t pitched in 11 days; he is 1-1, 3.12 in four starts (under 2-1-1).
Ross is 1-0, 6.17 in two starts (over 2-0); Nationals scored 29 runs in those games.
Mets lost 10 of last 13 games, but won last two; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Washington won 10 of last 13 games but lost last two; they’re 6-5 at home. Last six Nationals’ games went over.
Braves @ Brewers
Foltynewicz is 0-2, 2.55 in three starts this month (under 2-1). Atlanta scored seven runs in the three games.
Garza allowed four runs in four IP (93 PT) in his first ’15 start, vs Cincinnati.
Braves won last four games but are 6-9 on road; over is 10-3 in their last 13 road games. Milwaukee is 3-5 in its last eight games; over is 10-1 in its last eleven home games.
Reds @ St Louis
Arroyo is 2-2, 6.86 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Leake is 3-0, 1.40 in his last three starts (under 3-1).
Reds lost four in row, eight of last nine games; their last seven games went over. St Louis is 9-2 in its last 11 games, 6-1 in last seven at home. Over is 7-1 in their last eight games.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Marquez allowed eight runs in four IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 star, vs Washington.
Corbin is 1-2, 4.74 in his last three starts (over 3-2).
Rockies won five of last six road games; under is 8-2 in their last ten road tilts. Arizona is 11-5 at home (over 12-4).
Phillies @ Dodgers
Pivetta is making his MLB debut; he is 3-0, 0.95 in three AAA starts this month, was 1-2, 2.55 in five AAA starts LY.
Ryu is 0-4, 4.64 in four starts this month (under 4-0). LA scored six runs in the four games.
Phillies won six of their last eight games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Dodgers won their last three games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six home games.
Padres @ Giants
Richard is 1-3, 6.45 in his last four starts (under 3-2).
Blach allowed allowed two runs in five IP (75 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 home loss to LA.
Padres lost six of their last eight games; six of their last eight road games went over. San Francisco lost seven of its last ten games; under is 9-2-2 in their home games.
American League
Rays @ Blue Jays
Archer is 2-1, 3.94 in five starts this month (over 4-1).
Sanchez is 0-1, 3.77 in two starts this month (over 1-1).
Rays lost six of their last eight road games. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Toronto is 5-8 in its last 13 games, 3-8 at home- four of their last five games went over.
Orioles @ Bronx
Miley is 1-1, 2.08 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Montgomery is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Orioles lost three of last four games; they’re 6-5 on road; over is 4-1 in their last five games. Bronx won 14 of last 17 games, is 10-1 at home- over is 5-1 in their last six home tilts.
Mariners @ Indians
DeJong is making his first MLB start; he’s pitched 4.2 innings in two relief stints. DeJong is 2-0, 1.74 in two AAA starts this year.
Tomlin is 1-3, 9.33 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Mariners won four of last six games; under is 10-5-1 in their road games. Cleveland won eight of last 11 games; seven of their last eight games stayed under.
White Sox @ Tigers
Gonzalez is 3-0, 2.30 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Zimmerman is 1-1, 8.10 in his last three starts (over 3-1).
White Sox won their last fsix games, scoring 46 runs. Under is 13-7 in their last 20 games. Detroit lost its last four games; over is 7-1-2 in their last ten games overall.
Angels @ Rangers
Ramirez is 0-2, 4.15 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Perez is 0-2, 4.91 in his last three starts (under 4-1).
Angels won six of their last eight games; 10 of their last 11 road games stayed under. Texas won seven of its last ten home games; under is 8-2-1 in their last eleven.
A’s @ Astros
Hahn is 1-1, 1.80 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Keuchel is 4-0, 1.22 in five starts this month (under 3-2).
A’s lost five of their last six games, scoring 14 runs. Under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Houston won five of last seven home tilts; under is 10-3 in their home games.
Twins @ Royals
Hughes is 3-1, 5.57 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Hammel is 0-3, 5.30 in four starts this month (under 3-1); Royals scored nine runs in the four games.
Twins lost seven of last 11 games; they’re 6-4 on road. Over is 5-1-3 in their last nine games. Kansas City lost its last eight games; they’re 5-4 at home. Under is 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.
Interleague
Cubs @ Red Sox
Hendricks is 2-1, 4.50 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Rodriguez is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Cubs won seven of their last ten games; they’re 9-5 on road. Over is 10-1 in their last eleven games. Boston lost five of its last seven games; seven of their last nine games stayed under.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Pitt-Mia: Kuhl 1-3; Koehler 2-2
NY-Wsh: Syndergaard 2-2; Ross 2-0
Atl-Mil: Foltynewicz 0-3; Garza 1-0
Cin-StL: Arroyo 2-2; Leake 3-1
Colo-Az: Marquez 0-1; Corbin 2-3
Phil-LA: Pivetta 0-0; Ryu 0-4
SD-SF: Richard 2-3; Blach 0-1
American League
TB-Tor: Archer 4-1; Sanchez 0-2
Balt-NY: Miley 2-2; Montgomery 2-1
Sea-Clev: DeJong 0-0; Tomlin 1-3
Chi-Det: Gonzalez 4-0; Zimmerman 2-2
LA-Tex: Ramirez 1-2; Perez 1-4
A’s-Hst: Hahn 1-2; Keuchel 4-1
Min-KC: Hughes 3-1; Hammel 0-4
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Hendricks 3-1; Rodriguez 2-1
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Pitt-Mia: Kuhl 2-4; Koehler 3-4
NY-Wsh: Syndergaard 1-4; Ross 1-2
Atl-Mil: Foltynewicz 0-3; Garza 0-1
Cin-StL: Arroyo 2-2; Leake 3-1
Colo-Az: Marquez 1-1; Corbin 2-5
Phil-LA: Pivetta 0-0; Ryu 3-4
SD-SF: Richard 1-5; Blach 0-1
American League
TB-Tor: Archer 1-5; Sanchez 0-2
Balt-NY: Miley 0-4; Montgomery 2-3
Sea-Clev: DeJong 0-0; Tomlin 2-4
Chi-Det: Gonzalez 1-4; Zimmerman 2-2
LA-Tex: Ramirez 2-3; Perez 2-3
A’s-Hst: Hahn 1-3; Keuchel 1-5
Min-KC: Hughes 3-1; Hammel 0-4
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Hendricks 2-4; Rodriguez 1-3
Umpires
National League
Pitt-Mia: Under is 4-0 in Hoye games this month.
NY-Wsh: Last five TBarrett games went over total.
Atl-Mil: All five Barry games this month went over.
Cin-StL: Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Marquez games.
Colo-Az: Under is 6-3 in last nine Layne games.
Phil-LA: Seven of last nine Woodring games went over.
SD-SF: Four of last five Foster games went over.
American League
TB-Tor: Over is 4-0-1 in Wolf games this month.
Balt-NY: Underdogs won three of last four Scheurwater games
Sea-Clev: Three of four Kulpa games stayed under total.
Chi-Det: Underdogs won five of last seven Blaser games
LA-Tex: Over is 3-1-1 in Miller games this month.
A’s-Hst: Favorites are 15-2 in last 17 Wendelstedt games.
Min-KC: Over is 14-2 in last sixteen Gonzalez games.
Interleague
Chi-Bos: Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Dreckman games
Armadillosports.com
Red Sox host Cubs
By: StatFox.com
Both the Cubs and Red Sox will be hoping to finish this series off with a win on national television on Sunday night.
The Cubs and Red Sox will be finishing off a three-game set on Sunday night, and both teams can really use a win in this one. The starters for this ESPN matchup are set to be RHP Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 4.50 ERA, 16 K) for Chicago and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 3.12 ERA, 22 K) for Boston. Hendricks is off to a bit of a slow start this season, which is surprising after he led the league in ERA in 2016 (2.13 ERA). Rodriguez, meanwhile, has come out firing, which is a major positive for a Boston team that has been rather mediocre out the gate. Rodriguez is one of the team’s prized young players, but he has struggled with inconsistency in his first three years in the majors. The Red Sox are dealing with some injuries coming into this contest, though. Boston has both 3B Pablo Sandoval (Knee) and OF Brock Holt (Vertigo) on the10-day DL, and the team is also waiting on the return of both LHP David Price (Elbow) and RHP Tyler Thornburg (Undisclosed).
Kyle Hendricks is not off to the best start this season, but he is coming off of a terrific outing against the Pirates. Hendricks pitched six innings of shutout ball in a 1-0 win over the Pirates in his last start, striking out three batters in that one. If Hendricks can put forth another good start on Sunday then he might just be back to the guy he was last year. He is, however, struggling to throw with the same velocity that he did last year, and that is a major red flag entering May. Offensively, the Cubs have a number of weapons that should be able to get to Rodriguez in this one. The guys to watch out for in this game are, however, 3B Kris Bryant and SS Addison Russell. While Chicago has a ton of excellent hitters, these are the most dangerous right-handed batters in the lineup. That will be important on Sunday, as Chicago is going up against a lefty. It’s crucial that both guys produce in this one.
The Red Sox are hoping to get back on track soon and they’ll send Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound to earn a big win over the Cubs on Sunday night. Rodriguez issued five walks in an Apr. 23 start against Baltimore, but he didn’t allow a single run in six innings of work in that game. He struck out seven batters and constantly worked his way out of jams. While he looked pretty good in that one, the walks are a major concern. He has walked three or more batters in all three games where he has pitched at least five innings this season. He’ll need his control to be better against Chicago or the defending champs will make him pay. Offensively, the Sox will need stars like OF Mookie Betts and 1B Hanley Ramirez to show up here. On the big stage of national television, both guys will need to find a way to produce.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-165, 8.5)
The Cardinals are starting to get hot as they continue their series with their division rivals from Cincinnati Saturday in St. Louis after taking Game 7-5 on Friday night. The Cardinals have won nine of their last 11 games to climb to within a half-game of the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.
The Cards' offense has come alive in the last three games in particular, in which they have averaged seven runs per game thanks in part to lead-off man Dexter Fowler setting the table. The newly acquired center fielder has reached base safely 12 times in the last four games (nine hits, three walks) scoring six runs. They’ve now gone Over the total seven of their last eight games and the last five overall.
Meanwhile, the Reds are going Over totals for the exact opposite reason.
Cincinnati pitching has allowed a hefty 8.4 runs per game over the last seven games, in which the Over has cashed in each.
The Reds send Bronson Arroyo to the mound Sunday following Saturday's rainout. Arroyo was rocked by the Cards in his first start of the season, giving up six runs on six hits in four innings of work.
Pick: Over 8.5
Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox (-115, 8.5)
The rare weekend series at Fenway Park between the Boston Red Sox and the visiting Chicago Cubs had been billed by many as a World Series preview. Well, we can only hope - the first two game of this series have been electric to watch.
The rubber match goes on Sunday Night Baseball and features a pair of starting pitchers who seemed to figure out their early season struggles in their last outing. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs coming off a solid six shutout innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill for the Sox after tossing six innings of one-hit ball versus the Baltimore Orioles last Sunday.
In situations like this, where you get two starting pitcher with very similar stats (and both coming off very good outings), you have to go with the hurler with the better pedigree. Hendricks won 16 games, led the majors in ERA, and finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting in 2016 - we'll go with him. "The Professor" is also a sinker-ball pitcher who will not be intimated by the Green Monster in left field at Fenway.
Finally, the Cubs are a much better offensive team against left-handed starters. Coming into today's game the Cubs own a .276 batting average, a .385 on base percentage, and are averaging 6.36 runs per nine innings vs lefties this season.
Pick: Cubs +100
Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 16-15-1
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Miguel Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox (3-0, 2.00 ERA, $553)
Without a doubt, the biggest surprise early in the 2017 season has been the Chicago White Sox (13-9). A big part of the reason for their early success has been the stellar starting pitching of Miguel Gonzalez.
"Gonzo" comes into Sunday's game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park as the second highest earning starting pitcher in all of baseball in our Starter Money stats ($553), and owns a Team W/L record of 4-0 in his four starts to go along with his 2.00 ERA. The White Sox are a Pick "Em today at the Tigers.
Slumping: Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates (1-2, 6.63 ERA, $-200)
The Pittsburgh Pirates' Chad Kuhl has not been cool to bettors thus far during the 2017 baseball season.
Kuhl comes into Sunday's start with a Team W/L record of just 1-3 in his four starts, and in his last outing he lasted only 1.2 innings and surrendered NINE EARNED RUNS against the Chicago Cubs. Kuhl gets the ball as a +115 underdog in Miami versus Tom Koehler and the Marlins.
Sunday's Top Trends
* The New York Yankees are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. left-handed starters. -115 vs. Miley and the Orioles.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 0-7 in Bronson Arroyo's last 7 starts vs. Cardinals. Reds +150 today @ St. Louis.
* The Kansas City Royals are 0-11 in their last 11 vs. American League Central teams. -125 today vs Twins.
* The Chicago Cubs are 8-0 in Kyle Hendricks' last 8 road starts. +100 today @ Red Sox.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
The Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals were washed out Saturday and they could be in for a wild weather day today as well. Thunderstorms are expected to push through the St. Louis area Sunday afternoon, bringing rain and 20 mile per hour winds blowing from right-to-left. Conditions are expected to clear later in the day so this could be a potential delay situation.
Two hitter's winds to make note of for Sunday. There is a 15-20 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left-center field in the forecast for the Twins and Royals at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City (total: 8.5) and there will be a 20 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field in Arlington for the Angels and Rangers (total: 9).
Ump of the Day
Marty Foster: Something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks is umpires who seem to go against their normal stats when they work the plate on Sunday afternoons. Major League Baseball is determined to speed up the game, especially on family-friendly weekend games. Marty Foster is a guy who is a 50/50 bet during the last few years when it comes to betting totals and so far in 2017 his games are averaging a lofty 12.67 runs. However, six of the last seven times that Foster has called balls and strikes on Sunday his games have gone Under the closing total. Foster draws the home plate assignment for the Padres and Giants at AT&T Park in San Francisco this afternoon and the total is set at 8.