MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, August 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Giants @ Nationals
Stratton is 0-1, 6.17 in two starts this year (over 1-1)— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2. Moore is 0-5, 6.60 in his last eight starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Giants are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-17-4
Scherzer is 1-0, 1.93 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Washington is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-1 Cole is 1-2, 5.63 in three starts this year (under 2-0-1). Washington is 0-1 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Giants won four of last six games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine road tilts. Washington won six of its last eight games; over is 4-3 in their last seven games. Needs to be mentioned that Saturday’s game started three hours late and ended way after midnight.
Mets @ Phillies
Flexen is 1-1, 9.26 in three starts this year (over 2-0-1). Mets are 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Eflin is 1-3, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Phillies are 1-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-3
Mets won three of last five road games; over is 9-4 in last 13 road games. Phillies won four of their last six games; over is 5-3 in their last eight home games.
Rockies @ Marlins
Marquez is 4-0, 2.72 in his last six starts, last four of which stayed under. Colorado is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-4-3
Worley is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Miami is 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3-1
Colorado lost four of last five games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. Miami won its last four home games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Reds @ Brewers
Romano is 0-2, 6.32 in his last three starts (under 4-3). Reds are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4
Garza is 1-2, 5.68 in his last four starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. Milwaukee is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2
Reds won four of last six games; their last seven games went over total. Milwaukee lost six of its last seven games; under is 9-4-2 in their last 15 games.
Braves @ Cardinals
Dickey is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Atlanta is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4
Wacha is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; under is 6-1 in his last seven. St Louis is 4-0 in his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-4
Braves are 3-12 in last 15 games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. St Louis won its last eight games, scoring 68 runs; their last six games went over total.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Arrieta is 3-1, 3.03 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1). Cubs are 8-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-3
Godley is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Arizona is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-2
Cubs lost seven of last ten games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Arizona lost five of last seven games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.
Padres @ Dodgers
Perdomo is 2-2, 7.33 in his last five starts (over 4-1). San Diego is 2-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-4
Maeda is 4-0, 1.67 in his last five starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Dodgers are 7-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-1
San Diego lost five of last seven games; five of their last six games went over. Dodgers are 47-9 in their last 56 games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 12.
American League
Boston @ New York
Sale is 3-0, 2.42 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Red Sox are 9-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-4-6
Montgomery got hit in head with a baseball during batting practice yesterday, will still start here. He is 1-2, 5.31 in his last four starts (under 4-0). New York is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-2
Red Sox won nine of their last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. New York is 4-3 in its last seven games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
Twins @ Tigers
Santana is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Twins are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-7-3
Boyd is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Detroit is 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-3
Minnesota won six of its last seven games; under is 3-2-1 in their last six road games. Detroit lost six of last eight games; over is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
Indians @ Rays
Kluber is 3-0, 1.97 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-2 in his last nine. Cleveland is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-2
Pruitt is 1-2, 2.66 in four starts this year (under 4-0). Rays are 0-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2
Indians are 5-4 in last nine games; under is 10-2 in their last 12 games. Tampa Bay lost six of last eight games, scoring total of eight runs; they were shut out in five of the six losses. Under is 11-2-1 in their last 14 home games.
Astros @ Rangers
Keuchel is 0-2, 10.50 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Houston is 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-3-2
Cashner is 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts; his last six starts stayed under. Texas is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-6-3
Astros lost last seven road games; over is 16-5 in their last 21 road games. Texas lost four of last seven home games; under is 8-6-1 in their last 15 home games.
Royals @ White Sox
Vargas is 0-2, 8.38 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Royals are 7-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-2
Holland is 1-4, 8.07 in his last seven starts (over 5-2). Chicago is 3-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-3
Royals lost seven of last nine games; six of their last eight games went over. Chicago won four of their last five games after a 3-20 skid; under is 4-0 in their last four games.
Orioles @ A’s
Hellickson is 1-1, 2.07 in two starts for Baltimore (under 2-0). Home team won both of those games. Orioles’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1
Graveman is 0-1, 13.50 in two starts since coming off the DL; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. A’s are 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-4
Baltimore won 10 of last 15 games; under is 9-3 in their last 12. Oakland lost 10 of last 14 home games (under 10-3-1).
Angels @ Mariners
Bridwell is 3-0, 2.73 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Angels are 4-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-2-2
Miranda is 0-1, 7.16 in his last five starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. Seattle is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-9-1
Angels are 9-3 in last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Mariners won eight of last 13 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight.
Interleague
Pirates @ Blue Jays
Kuhl is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five. Pittsburgh is 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-3
Happ is 2-0, 1.42 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9
Pittsburgh won seven of last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Blue Jays are 6-4 in last ten games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-1 Moore 6-17; Scherzer 15-8 Cole 1-2
NY-Phil: Flexen 2-1; Eflin 3-6
Colo-Mia: Marquez 12-7; Worley 5-2
Cin-Mil: Romano 2-5; Garza 8-9
Atl-StL: Dickey 12-10; Wacha 11-10
Chi-Az: Arrieta 12-11; Godley 11-5
SD-LA; Perdomo 9-11; Maeda 13-5
American League
Bos-NY; Sale 17-6; Montgomery 9-12
Min-Det: Santana 13-10; Boyd 8-8
Clev-TB: Kluber 12-7; Pruitt 2-2
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 11-3; Cashner 9-9
KC-Chi: Vargas 15-7; Holland 7-15
Balt-A’s: Hellickson 1-1 (10-10); Graveman 4-6
LA-Sea: Bridwell 9-1; Miranda 13-10
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Kuhl 9-14; Happ 6-10
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
SF-Wsh: Stratton 1-2 Moore 8-23; Scherzer 15-8 Cole 1-3
NY-Phil: Flexen 1-3; Eflin 7-9
Colo-Mia: Marquez 5-19; Worley 5-7
Cin-Mil: Romano 2-7; Garza 4-17
Atl-StL: Dickey 6-22; Wacha 3-21
Chi-Az: Arrieta 6-23; Godley 2-16
SD-LA; Perdomo 7-20; Maeda 6-18
American League
Bos-NY; Sale 2-23; Montgomery 5-21
Min-Det: Santana 4-23; Boyd 5-16
Clev-TB: Kluber 4-19; Pruitt 1-4
Hst-Tex: Keuchel 4-14; Cashner 5-18
KC-Chi: Vargas 5-22; Holland 6-22
Balt-A’s: Hellickson 6-22; Graveman 5-10
LA-Sea: Bridwell 0-10; Miranda 11-23
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Kuhl 4-23; Happ 3-16
Umpires
National League
SF-Wsh: Under is 12-3-3 in Blakney games this year. Road team is 13-5 in last 18 Conroy games.
NY-Phil: Under is 5-0-2 in last seven Eddings games.
Colo-Mia: Over is 9-2 in last eleven Hoberg games.
Cin-Mil: Over is 10-2 in last dozen Rackley games.
Atl-StL: Under is 12-1 in last thirteen TBarrett games.
Chi-Az: Three of last four Winters games went over total.
SD-LA: Under is 5-2 in last seven Nauert games.
American League
Bos-NY: Four of last five Diaz games went over.
Min-Det: Over is 5-1-1 in last seven May games.
Clev-TB: Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Ripperger games.
Hst-Tex: Four of last five Scheurwater games stayed under.
KC-Chi: Underdogs won 13 of last 20 West games.
Balt-A’s: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Wolf games.
LA-Sea: Three of last four Segal games went over.
Interleague
Pitt-Tor: Six of last nine Dreckman games went over total.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 63-49 AL, favorites -$173
AL @ NL– 61-56 NL, favorites -$537
Total: 118-107 AL, favorites -$710
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 57-54-3
AL @ NL: Over 63-48-7
Total: Over 120-102-10
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (9-1 past 10 overall)
After a 5-4 loss on Friday to snap their eight-game winning streak, the Red Sox were back at it starting a new winning run with a 10-5 victory over the Yankees. Rookie Andrew Benintendi swatted a pair of homers with six RBI, becoming the first Red Sox rookie to record six RBI against the Yankees since the statistic became official back in 1920. Now, the Red Sox turn to Chris Sale against Jordan Montgomery is a pitching matchup which looks to be heavily skewed in favor of the road team. The Red Sox are now 9-1 over their past 10 games overall, 5-2 in their past seven inside the division and 4-1 over their past five on the road.
Coldest team: Astros (0-5 past five games, 3-11 past 14 overall)
The Astros haven't appeared on the 'cold' list very often this season, but they're struggling lately. Houston has dropped five in a row, and they look to avoid the broom in Arlington against their in-state rivals from Texas. The Rangers are always a thorn in the side of the Astros, going 38-13 in their past 51 meetings at home against Houston. They're also 77-35 in the past 112 meetings overall. Houston has dropped seven in a row on the road, five straight overall and four of their past five inside the division. They're still 8-1 in Dallas Keuchel's past nine road starts and 10-1 over his past 11 inside the division.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, Red Sox (14-4, 2.57 ERA)
Sale heads into Sunday Night Baseball with the best ERA in the American League at 2.57. Through 23 starts the opposition is hitting just .193 against him with a 0.88 WHIP and he has struck out a major league high 229 batters while walking just 29 over 161 1/3 innings. He has managed an 8-3 record with a 2.37 ERA across 13 road outings, posting 137 strikeouts over just 91 innings away from home. He hasn't beaten the Yankees this season in two tries, but he is 0-1 with a 1.15 WHIP across 15 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and just two walks. The Red Sox are 5-1 over Sale's past six road starts, 16-5 across his past 21 overall and 5-2 in the past seven inside the division.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-12, 5.88 ERA)
The left-hander for the Giants has allowed more earned runs (84) than any other pitcher in the majors. He also has won just three of his 15 decisions overall with the opposition hitting a robust .294 against him. It appears Moore will not have to face OF Bryce Harper (knee), as he slipped an injured his knee on a wet base in Saturday's game, but even without the All-Star outfielder the Nats lineup is extremely dangerous. The Giants are just 3-9 over Moore's past 12 starts on the road, 5-16 over his past 21 overall and 1-7 across his past eight inside the division.
Biggest UNDER run: Indians (5-0 past four overall)
The 'under' connected in Saturday's 3-0 victory at Tampa Bay, giving Cleveland five consecutive under results. The under is 4-0 in their past four against a right-handed starting pitcher and 4-1 over their past five on the road against teams with a winning home mark. The under is also 31-15-5 in their past 51 on the road, while going 7-2 in thei past nine starts by Corey Kluber against American League East clubs. The under has hit for Tampa Bay lately, too, going 8-1 in their past nine home games and 19-7-2 in their past 28 games overall. And with Austin Pruitt on the mound, the under has hit in four straight overall.
Biggest OVER run: Royals (6-1-1 past eight overall)
The 'over' is 6-1-1 over the past eightgames overall for Kansas City, and 4-1-1 in their past six against a team with a winning percentage under .400. However, with Jason Vargas on the bump, the over will certainly not be easy. The under has hit in nine of his past 13 road outings, and 20 of the past 29 starts overall by the All-Star. The under is also 10-4-2 in Kansas City's past 16 overall on the road. The under is also 3-0-1 across the past four meetings with the White Sox, including Saturday's narrow 5-4 win with a total of 10.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Padres
The Padres might be 14 games below .500, but they have played playoff-caliber baseball this weekend at Chavez Ravine, giving the Dodgers all they can handle. The Fathers dealt the Dodgers a rare home loss on Friday, and the Dodgers had to rally late to win Saturday's battle. Not bad for a San Diego side which has won 19f of their past 59 trips down Elysian Park Avenue. With Paul Nauert behind the dish calling balls and strikes, the home teams is 22-5 across his past 27 calls. The Padres are also 1-8 over the past nine with Nauert behind the dish.
Betcha didn’t know: The Giants and Nationals will play a doubleheader on Sunday. Each of the past five doubleheaders this season have resulted in splits, and 14 of the past 16 have had each side win a game apiece. Overall in 17 doubleheaders this season there have been just three sweeps, with the road team breaking out the brooms on two of those occasions. Washington split its last doubleheeader on July 30 against the Rockies, and they also split a twin bill against Philadelphia on May 14. In fact, Washington has split its past three twin bills datingback to Oct. 3, 2015. San Francisco hasn't been involved in a doubleheader since May 23, 2015, in Colorado, and they split a pair there. The last time the Giants swept a double dip was back on April 23, 2012 at N.Y. Mets.
Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-280) vs. Padres
Biggest public underdog: Cubs (+115) at Diamondbacks
Biggest line move: Padres (+315 to +280) at Dodgers
MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Minnesota (-110) at Detroit; Total: 10
After one of the most unbelievable comebacks in recent memory, the Detroit Tigers will try to push that momentum forward into Sunday’s tilt with the Minnesota Twins. Ervin Santana will take the mound for the Twins against Matt Boyd. We haven’t seen a lot of love for Boyd in the marketplace this season, but he’s been the preferred side early this morning with the opening number of -125 down to as low as -108 at Pinnacle.
As we know, Santana is a regression candidate with a 3.27 ERA, a 4.78 FIP, and a 4.80 xFIP. This is actually the third straight season in which he has ignored those signs. In his suspension-shortened 2015 season, Santana had a 4.00/4.17/4.42 pitcher slash. It was 3.38/3.81/4.21 last season. This season, the two key luck metrics have been firmly on his side, with a .225 BABIP against and an 81.9 percent LOB%. The BABIP is 57 points below his career average and 60 points better than last season’s mark of .285. His LOB% is 8.7 percent above his career average.
The Twins have been far more aggressive defensively this season with more shifts in the infield and the outfield and it has worked out really well for Santana. His HR/FB% is actually the highest it has been since 2012, so the 4.80 xFIP really does stand out. xFIP assumes a league average HR/FB% and Santana’s is right around there.
Backing Boyd isn’t easy. He has a 5.64 ERA with a 4.39 FIP and a 5.12 xFIP. Unlike Santana, Boyd has kept the ball in the yard with a 9.3 percent HR/FB%. He has a .359 BABIP against and a 68.5 percent LOB, however. Add in a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate and that’s how you wind up with a 5.64 ERA.
We’re starting to see some negative regression hit for Santana. Over his last seven starts, he has a 4.37 ERA with a 5.26 FIP, and a 4.78 xFIP. He’s got a 72.7 percent LOB%, which is in the normal range, and his .266 BABIP is inching closer to normal. Righties have fared a bit better from a power standpoint against Santana this season and hold a big OBP advantage over lefties.
Given the tough loss for the Twins yesterday, I’d lean Tigers, but backing Boyd is scary.
Colorado (-110) at Miami; Total: 8.5
German Marquez and Vance Worley are the slated starters for Sunday afternoon at Marlins Park. I really like Marquez and think that he is one of the most underrated commodities in the league this season. Marquez has a 3.88 ERA with a 3.72 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. It’s hard to carry numbers like that while making a lot of starts at Coors Field, but Marquez has a solid K/BB ratio and has done well to limit home runs. His 9.7 percent HR/FB% is very impressive. Marquez has allowed more than three runs just once dating back to June 9.
As you would expect, he’s been better away from home. In 52.2 innings of work on the road, Marquez has held the opposition to a .238/.318/.365 slash with a .295 wOBA. He’s only allowed three of his 11 home runs on the road. At home, the opposition is batting .251/.312/.447 with a .323 wOBA.
Vance Worley is making his eighth start and 16th appearance for the Marlins. He has a 4.82 ERA with a 3.61 FIP and a 4.34 xFIP. This will be his fourth straight start. He’s been very effective, with just four runs allowed across 17 innings, but he’s also posted just an 8/5 K/BB ratio. He’s been pretty fortunate with balls in play. It doesn’t look like a sustainable period of time for Worley.
I’ll be backing the Rockies today. The market has given us a better price and the Rockies bullpen is in pretty good shape with Thursday’s off day and then reasonable usage over the last two days.
Baltimore (-115) at Oakland; Total: 9.5
I knew that this would be an interesting game to follow from a line movement standpoint and it hasn’t disappointed. The A’s are one of the few teams not involved in the wild card race in any way. The Orioles are 1.5 out as the majority of the American League sits around .500. Baltimore opened -130 for this road tilt at O.co Coliseum, but Jeremy Hellickson is on the mound, which means money coming in on the opposition. It will be Kendall Graveman for the A’s.
Hellickson has been exceptional over his first 13 innings for the Orioles with a 12/2 K/BB ratio and just three runs allowed on 11 hits. He struck out nine last time out against the Angels and allowed three runs on six hits. Hellickson now owns a 4.45 ERA with a 5.13 FIP and a 5.23 xFIP on the season. His low strikeout rate and high home run rate don’t help in the FIP and xFIP categories. It seems that the league change has helped. Maybe getting out of Philadelphia and into a playoff race has helped. Maybe a different voice has helped. In two starts with Baltimore, Hellickson has thrown more curveballs than he has throughout the season. His pitch usage has moved around a lot throughout the year, but the curveball difference is very noticeable. We’re seeing a league-wide trend from pitchers to use more curveballs in an effort to neutralize the rapid rise of power. This is a notable change for Hellickson and one that we have to consider since his curveball usage has gone from around 10 percent to over 20 percent in the AL.
Kendall Graveman’s second start off the DL went better than his first one. Graveman gave up seven runs on eight hits in two innings on August 3. He gave up four runs, three earned, on seven hits in 5.1 innings of work last time out. Still, Graveman is a pitcher that needs superior command to be effective. He hasn’t had it in his first two starts back and really hasn’t had it throughout the season. Factor in a pretty bad Oakland defense and it is very tough for him to put together a lot of quality outings.
As a result, I have to lean to Baltimore today. It’s a day game on the tail end of a long road trip, but the A’s just don’t have a whole lot to play for and Graveman isn’t a good fit with this team. The Coliseum is still a bit better for pitchers than a lot of parks, but it’s playing smaller this season and Graveman’s a pitch-to-contact guy reliant on his defense, so that hurts every time he takes the mound.
Los Angeles at Seattle (-130); Total: 9.5
The Angels and Mariners get together in some AL West baseball that has a pretty big impact on the wild card chase. If the playoffs started today, the Angels would be in. The Mariners are one game out at .500. Parker Bridwell and Ariel Miranda are set to go in this one.
Bridwell will see a lot of steam against him over his next few starts. He has a 3.00 ERA with a 4.65 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP on the year. He has a very low strikeout rate and has done well in leverage situations with an 86.6 percent LOB%. Bridwell only has 42 strikeouts in 66 innings. He’s got a league average HR/FB%, so nothing really stands out there. It’s just a matter of the fact that he has gotten pretty fortunate with balls in play. To his credit, he does induce a fair amount of weak contact. Either way, it’s easy to see why the market would be looking to fade him, especially since his worst start of the season came against Seattle and lefties own a .287/.349/.465 slash off of him in 126 plate appearances.
Ariel Miranda has a 4.65 ERA with a 5.37 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP, so he’s had his share of struggles this season. For Miranda, the biggest problem has been home runs. He has allowed 29 of them in 131.2 innings of work. He has a below average strikeout rate, but it’s not that far off, and has a pretty average walk rate. It’s hard to have a 14.6 percent HR/FB% with a 52.2 percent FB%, but he’s managed to do it. The Angels rank 23rd in HR/FB%, so power hasn’t been their strong suit this season. Is that going to be an advantage for Miranda in this spot? It very well could be.
Is that a -130 advantage? That I don’t know. I’d lean Angels here based on the price, but I do acknowledge the regression signs there for Bridwell and do understand the line move.
Chicago at Arizona (-115); Total: 9
Jake Arrieta and Zack Godley square off at Chase Field. Blowout wins for each team have been on the menu thus far. Arrieta takes the mound with a 3.83 ERA, a 4.10 FIP, and a 4.04 xFIP. Arrieta’s road has gotten smoother over the course of the season. Things looked pretty dicey earlier in the year, but he’s managed to make it work with lower velocity this season. Arrieta has allowed more than three earned runs just twice dating back to May 14. His 69.3 percent LOB% stands out and his HR/FB% is a bit above league average. The thing is that Arrieta is basically a league average pitcher this season and he’s not priced like one. This line, in my estimation, should be higher given how Zack Godley has pitched. It actually opened more like a money line pick ‘em and has since moved up, but I still believe it’s too low.
Arrieta has been very strong after the All-Star Break, though. He has a 2.20 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP in his last five starts. A .213 BABIP against and a 79.6 percent HR/FB% will do that for you. Do we look at that small sample size and expect regression or do we chalk that up to a normalization of his numbers from early in the season? He gave up nine hits last time out in 6.1 innings, but only gave up two earned runs. We’ll have to see how that plays out over his next few starts.
The biggest takeaway I have here is that Zack Godley is still criminally underpriced. Godley has shown some of the best command in baseball this season. He has a 2.94 ERA with a 3.18 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP. To go along with a spectacular 55.4 percent GB%, he has 101 strikeouts in 101 innings of work. It’s hard to have a .257 BABIP against with a 55.4 percent GB%, but he’s done it.
Godley deserves the respect he’s getting in the betting market today. I’ll be looking to play the Diamondbacks. I’ll also have a look to the under, since Arrieta is throwing the ball a bit better of late.
Struggling Yankees host Sox
By: StatFox.com
The Yankees will be hoping to earn a big home win over the Red Sox on Sunday.
Boston and New York are currently fighting for the top spot in the AL East, but the Red Sox are pulling away a bit. Boston has been scorching hot since the All-Star break, but the team has also been boosted by a trade for 3B Eduardo Nunez. He has been a revelation for the Sox, who really had nothing at the third base position prior to the move. As for the Yankees, many people talked about them contending for a World Series title after making moves to acquire RHP Sonny Gray and a bunch of very good relievers. The trade has not yet helped New York, which has struggled to find any consistency over the past few months. Still, the Yankees are a very talented team and will be eager to defeat their rivals in this game. Expect a ton of intensity, but the Red Sox are going to be the more confident team here. They’re sending AL Cy Young Award frontrunner LHP Chris Sale (14-4, 2.57 ERA, 229 K) to the mound in this one, and he has been almost unhittable this season. For the Yankees, LHP Jordan Montgomery (7-6, 4.05 ERA, 111 K) will do his best to hold his own in this pitching matchup.
Chris Sale is heading to the hill for Boston on Sunday, and the lefty has been ridiculous for the Red Sox lately. In his most recent start, Sale pitched eight innings of shutout ball against the Rays on Aug. 8. He struck out 13 batters in that game and he has now struck out 10 or more batters in seven of his past 10 starts. He’ll now face a Yankees offense that he shut out in 7.2 innings of work on Jul. 15. The Sox did, however, lose that game 4-1, so expect Sale to make it his goal to get into the eighth inning in this one. On offense, two guys to really keep an eye on for Boston are OF Mookie Betts and the previously mentioned Nunez. Both guys are going to be looking forward to facing a lefty like Montgomery in this one. 1B Hanley Ramirez could also make an impact in this one, as he has homered off of Montgomery before.
The Yankees need all of the wins over the Red Sox that they can get, as they still have hopes of winning the AL East. It would take a lot for New York to miss the postseason, but anything can happen. But still, the Yankees have to feel that they are closer to winning a division than missing out on the playoffs as a whole. Expect them to play like it in this one, and don’t be shocked if Montgomery pitches a great game. He was excellent in his most recent start, allowing only one earned run in 5.0 innings of work. The lefty struck out seven batters in that game and walked none. It’d be absolutely huge if he turned in another performance like that here. As for offense, the Yankees will need guys like C Gary Sanchez and OF Aaron Judge to step it up in this one. Both have tremendous power, but New York has not gotten much out of Judge since the All-Star break. That is a huge reason the team is struggling, so the Yankees will need Judge to get it going soon.