MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, August 20th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals vs Pirates (@ Williamsport)
Leake is 0-3, 8.41 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cardinals are 1-6 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-11-3

Nova is 0-4, 7.31 in his last five starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12. Pirates’ first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-1

Cardinals won six of last nine road games; 11 of their last 12 games went over the total. Pittsburgh lost six of its last seven games; their last four games went over.

Marlins @ Mets
Conley is 1-2, 6.48 in his last three starts (over 9-3). Miami is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-3

deGrom is 1-3, 3.96 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Mets are 8-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-1

Miami won six of its last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road tilts. Mets lost five of their last six games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.

Reds @ Braves
Castillo is 1-1, 2.73 in his last four starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten. Reds are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7

Newcomb is 0-5, 6.47 in his last eight starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Braves are 1-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-9

Reds won four of last five games; over is 12-2 in their last 14 games. Atlanta is 3-9 in its last 12 games; under is 11-3 in their last 14 home games. .

Brewers @ Rockies
Anderson (ribcage) makes first start since June 28; he was 4-1, 1.27 in his last seven starts (under 5-2). Brewers are 4-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-2

Freeland is 3-0, 3.16 in his last I’ve starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Colorado is 7-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-1

Brewers won five of their last six games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven. Colorado lost six of last nine games; under is 8-2-2 in their last 11.

Nationals @ Padres
Gonzalez is 3-0, 0.43 in his last three starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Nationals are 8-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-5-5

Lamet is 4-0, 2.37 in his last five starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Padres are 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6

Nationals won seven of last ten games; their last nine games stayed under. San Diego is 9-4 in last 13 home games; under is 9-2 in last 11 home tilts.

Phillies @ Giants
Lively is 0-3, 6.32 in his last three starts (last start, July 5— under 5-1-1). Phillies are 0-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-6-1

Bumgarner is 3-1, 2.25 in his last five starts; three of his last four stayed under. Giants are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-6-3

Philly lost eight of last ten games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Giants won six of last eight home games; five of last six Giant games went over the total.

American League

Angels @ Orioles
Bridwell is 5-0, 2.22 in his last seven starts (under 6-1). Angels are 5-0 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-2-2

Miley is 3-1, 3.32 in his last four starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Orioles are 5-5 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-13-2

Angels won eight of last ten games; five of their last six games stayed under. Baltimore lost seven of last 11 games; five of their last seven games went over.

Mariners @ Rays
Gallardo is 0-1, 9.45 in his last three starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Seattle is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

Snell is 1-1, 4.40 in his last five starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Tampa Bay is 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-2

Mariners won their last four games; under is 4-3 in their last seven games. Tampa Bay lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 14-3 in their last 17 games.

New York @ Boston
Gray is 1-2, 4.50 in three starts for New York (under 2-1). Home team won all three of those games. New York’s first 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Porcello is 3-0, 4.91 in his last three starts (over 3-0). Boston is 6-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-16-2

New York won five of its last six games; over is 3-2 in their last five games. Red Sox are 13-3 in last 16 games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games.

White Sox @ Rangers
Gonzalez is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. White Sox are 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-2

Griffin is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts (over 8-2-1). Texas is 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4

White Sox lost six of their last seven games; under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Texas won eight of last ten games; over is 4-1 in their last five games.

A’s @ Astros
Cotton is 0-3, 8.77 in his last five starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Oakland is 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-1

Peacock is 1-0, 5.85 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Houston is 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-2

A’s lost eight of last 11 games; they scored one run the last two days. Four of their last seven games went over. Houston is 5-7 in its last 12 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11.

Indians @ Royals
Salazar is 2-0, 1.39 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-3

Hammel is 0-1, 4.67 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Royals are 3-10 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-5

Cleveland is 8-1 in last nine games- under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games. Royals won four of last seven games; four of their last six went over.

Interleague

Blue Jays @ Cubs
Estrada is 1-1, 3.56 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Toronto is 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-14-3

Hendricks is 0-1, 2.00 in five starts since coming off the DL (under 5-0); Cubs scored 7 runs in those seven games. Chicago is 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Toronto won five of last eight games; under is 8-2 in their last ten. Cubs are 5-2 in last seven games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Dodgers @ Tigers
Maeda is 5-0, 2.51 in his last six starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Dodgers are 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-5-1

Verlander is 3-1, 2.33 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Detroit is 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-4

Dodgers are 21-3 in last 24 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight. Detroit lost eight of last nine games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten.

Diamondbacks @ Twins
MacFarland is starting for Arizona- its a bullpen game. He is 4-4, 4.14 in 32 games (45.2 IP) this season. This is his first start this year- he started two games for Baltimore in 2013-14.

Colon is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Twins are 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-3

Arizona is 4-10 in its last 14 games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Twins are 10-3 in last 13 games; over is 4-2-2 in their last eight.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Pitt: Leake 10-14; Nova 12-12
Mia-NY: Conley 6-6; deGrom 15-9
Cin-Atl: Castillo 5-6; Newcomb 3-9
Mil-Colo: Anderson 8-8; Freeland 14-8
Wsh-SD: Gonzalez 14-10; Lamet 9-5
Phil-SF: Lively 1-6; Bumgarner 3-8

American League
LA-Balt: Bridwell 10-1; Miley 13-12
Sea-TB: Gallardo 7-12; Snell 6-9
NY-Bos: Gray 1-2 (8-8 ); Porcello 11-14
Chi-Tex: Gonzalez 7-12; Griffin 7-3
A’s-Hst: Cotton 6-12; Peacock 11-3
Clev-KC: Salazar 7-8; Hammel 16-7

Interleague
Tor-Chi: Estrada 11-14; Hendricks 7-9
LA-Det: Maeda 14-5; Verlander 11-14
Az-Minn: MacFarland 0-0; Colon 2-4

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Pitt: Leake 7-24; Nova 11-24
Mia-NY: Conley 5-12; deGrom 7-24
Cin-Atl: Castillo 2-11; Newcomb 3-12
Mil-Colo: Anderson 4-16; Freeland 6-21
Wsh-SD: Gonzalez 7-24; Lamet 5-14
Phil-SF: Lively 3-7; Bumgarner 2-11

American League
LA-Balt: Bridwell 1-11; Miley 10-25
Sea-TB: Gallardo 10-19; Snell 4-15
NY-Bos: Gray 3-19; Porcello 7-25
Chi-Tex: Gonzalez 6-19; Griffin 3-10
A’s-Hst: Cotton 8-18; Peacock 1-14
Clev-KC: Salazar 6-15; Hammel 5-23

Interleague
Tor-Chi: Estrada 9-25; Hendricks 6-16
LA-Det: Maeda 7-19; Verlander 6-25
Az-Minn: MacFarland 0-0; Colon 1-6

Umpires

National League
StL-Pitt: Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Davis games.
Mia-NY: Three of last four Blakney games went over.
Cin-Atl: This is 2nd career game behind plate for rookie ump Mahrley
Mil-Colo: Road team won eight of last ten Holbrook games.
Wsh-SD: Four of last five Muchlinski games went over.
Phil-SF: Over is 10-6 in last sixteen Johnson games.

American League
LA-Balt: Over is 8-4 in last dozen Whitson games.
Sea-TB: Over is 11-5 in last sixteen Demuth games.
NY-Bos: Home team is 14-2 in last 16 Barksdale games.
Chi-Tex: Five of last six Hoye games stayed under.
A’s-Hst: Under is 12-3 in last fifteen Bellino games.
Clev-KC: Underdogs are 6-4 in Knight games this year.

Interleague
Tor-Chi: Three of last four Fletcher games stayed under.
LA-Det: Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Segal games.
Az-Minn: Five of last six Tumpane games went over.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 71-52 AL, favorites +$277
AL @ NL– 66-60 NL, favorites +$104
Total: 131-118 AL, favorites +$381

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 62-60-3
AL @ NL: Over 66-54-7
Total: Over 128-114-10

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Twins (10-3 last 13) vs. Diamondbacks

Minnesota likely won’t catch Cleveland in the AL Central, but the Twins are hanging around in the Wild Card race. The Twins blanked Zack Greinke and the D-backs on Saturday, 5-0 as Minnesota has outscored Arizona, 15-0 since falling behind 3-0 on Friday night. In spite of dropping two of three to the Indians in their previous series, Minnesota is tied with Los Angeles for the second Wild Card position in the AL behind the Yankees.

The Twins seek the sweep of the Snakes on Sunday at Target Field as Minnesota is riding a seven-game winning streak against National League opponents. Minnesota turns to wily veteran Bartolo Colon in the finale as the Twins have won two of his last three starts, but the right-hander has yielded three earned runs or more in five of six outings since joining Minnesota in mid-July.

Coldest team: Tigers (0-6 last six) vs. Dodgers

Since winning the pennant in 2006, Detroit has been a force in the American League by falling short of .500 only twice. That number is set to move to three as the Tigers have slipped to 53-69 after dropping 12 of their last 14 games. The red-hot Dodgers shut out the Tigers on Saturday, 3-0 as Detroit received a solid pitching performance from Michael Fulmer, but an error by third baseman Nick Castellanos kept L.A. alive in the seventh, eventually allowing the first run to score.

The Tigers have won only three games since August 4, but two of those victories were credited to Justin Verlander. The former Cy Young winner and Most Valuable Player heads to the mound on Sunday looking to avoid the sweep, as Detroit is 3-1 in his past four starts. Verlander has won both of his interleague starts this season, beating the Diamondbacks and Pirates.

Hottest pitcher: Parker Bridwell, Angels (7-1, 2.88 ERA)

Los Angeles doesn’t have a legitimate ace in its rotation, but Bridwell is turning into a viable option at the top. In his first full Major League season, Bridwell has compiled eight quality starts, including four quality outings on the road. Bridwell has become an automatic play on the highway as the Angels own a perfect 5-0 away record, including victories over the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mariners. The right-hander beat the Orioles at home earlier this month, while looking to defeat Baltimore again, four months after the O’s traded Bridwell to the Angels.

Coldest pitcher: Jharel Cotton, Athletics (5-10, 5.92 ERA)

The Oakland right-hander has been knocked around of late by putting up scary identical stat-lines in his last two starts. Cotton threw 100 pitches, lasted six innings, and allowed eight hits and six earned runs in home losses to Kansas City and Seattle, while last picking up a victory against the White Sox on June 23. Since tossing seven scoreless innings against the Royals in April, the A’s are 2-5 in his last seven road starts, including a 9-4 setback at Houston on April 28.

Biggest OVER run: Reds (12-2 last 14)

Cincinnati went deep three times on Friday, but the Reds finished UNDER the total in a 5-3 victory over the Braves. The Reds and Braves lit up the scoreboard on Saturday as each team plated four runs in the ninth inning, but Cincinnati beat Atlanta once again, 11-8. Cincinnati shoots for its first road sweep since early April at Pittsburgh as Luis Castillo heads to the mound for the Reds. Castillo has tossed at least six innings in each of his past four appearances, as the Reds are 4-1 to the UNDER in his last five road starts.

Biggest UNDER run: Blue Jays (8-2 last 10)

Toronto tries to avoid the sweep at Chicago after dropping a 4-3 decision at Wrigley Field on Saturday. The Jays continue to be inconsistent at the plate, scoring four runs or fewer in five of the past six contests, while losing four of their last five games away from Rogers Center. Marco Estrada looks to bounce back from a dreadful start against Tampa Bay in which was tagged for six earned runs in 4.1 innings. Estrada has been strong on the highway by tossing seven innings each against the Astros and White Sox, but the OVER is 4-1 in his last five road outings.

Matchup to watch: Cardinals vs. Pirates

These two NL Central rivals finish off their four-game series on Sunday night, but it won’t be at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Things will shift over to Williamsport, Pennsylvania, the home of the Little League World Series in the “MLB Little League Classic” as the Pirates seek the split of their set. Pittsburgh held off St. Louis on Saturday, 6-4 to snap a six-game losing streak, while dropping the Cardinals 2 ½ games behind the Cubs in the NL Central race.

Ivan Nova has drawn six road assignments in his last eight starts since the beginning of July as the Pirates have won only three of those outings. In his past two starts against the Tigers and Brewers on the road, the Bucs plated a total of one run, as Pittsburgh lost both of those games to fall to 1-6 in his previous seven road outings. This will technically go down as a home start, as Pittsburgh has won his past five home outings.

Mike Leake needs to tighten things up as the Cardinals have posted a 2-6 record in his last eight starts, including an 0-4 mark in his past four appearances away from Busch Stadium. The Redbirds have won two of Leake’s three starts against the Pirates this season, while St. Louis owns a 7-5 record against Pittsburgh in 2017.

Betcha didn’t know: The defending AL champion Indians are hitting their stride as they improved to 8-2 on their current 11-game road trip following Saturday’s victory at Kansas City. Cleveland is finishing up its fourth series with Kansas City on Sunday as the Indians won the first three series finales by a combined score of 19-1.

Biggest public favorite: Astros (-210) vs. Athletics

Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+120) at Rockies

Biggest line move: Padres (+105 to -105) vs. Nationals

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-140); Total: 9

How bad is Yovani Gallardo? The Rays will get their swings against the veteran right-hander, whose arm is about 15 years older than the rest of his body. Tampa Bay will counter with scuffling southpaw Blake Snell. The market seems nonplussed about Snell’s struggles this season because he has gotten steamed once again. Tampa Bay opened a -120 favorite at Bookmaker and the number has climbed to as high as -144 in the marketplace.

On the heels of a five-game losing streak that looked like it could deal a significant blow to Seattle’s playoff hopes, the Mariners have now won four in a row and are looking for a sweep of the Rays. The Mariners have scored 14 runs in this series and have now scored seven runs in three straight games. Mitch Haniger is hitting again and the rest of the lineup has followed suit.

Today, the Mariners will need to hit. Gallardo has a 6.69 ERA with a 23/13 K/BB ratio in his last seven starts covering 35 innings. Per usual, as we take a deeper look, we notice that his stats are inflated by an awful start last time out. Gallardo allowed eight runs on nine hits in four innings of work against the Orioles on Monday. That was the last time the Mariners lost. The Rays have been one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last seven weeks, so Gallardo could get a respite, but respites are few and far between with a 5.84/5.25/5.09 pitcher slash over 111 innings of work. He’s allowed 19 HR in those innings.

Seeing money on Blake Snell is something that I struggle to wrap my head around. Snell has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.84 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. He has issued far too many walks. He has a 69.2 percent LOB%, so maybe the market is viewing that as a statistic in line for some regression, but I’m not buying it. On the surface, I would expect the Mariners to struggle against left-handed pitching because of the way their roster is constructed, but they have a 100 wRC+. Their .318 wOBA does rank 17th, but they’ve put a lot of balls in play and have a decent walk rate in that split.

I thought maybe bullpen usage was a contributing factor in the line, but only Emilio Pagan would be working back-to-back days for the Mariners, who used five relievers yesterday. The Rays pen also saw five arms deployed yesterday. Gallardo’s numbers are boosted a bit by 11.1 relief innings, in which he held opponents to a .132/.233/.237 slash. In 99.2 innings as a starter, he has allowed all 19 home runs with a .285/.357/.490 slash.

Still, even with my concerns about Gallardo, there’s no way I’d lay -140 on Blake Snell. The Mariners are a decent value play as an underdog, if you keep the perspective that a +130 dog is only supposed to win about 43.5 percent of the time.

New York (-105) at Boston; Total: 9.5

A virtual money line pick ‘em is posted for today’s tilt at Fenway Park between the Yankees and the Red Sox. The biggest surprise about the day is that the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t featured on ESPN for the 455th time this season. It will be Sonny Gray for the AL Wild Card-leading Yanks and Rick Porcello for the AL East-leading Red Sox.

Both of these teams are surging right now. The Yankees have won five of six and the Red Sox have won seven of 10. This is the rubber match after the Yankees toppled the mountain that is Chris Sale yesterday. Through three starts with the Yankees, Gray boasts a 3.00 ERA with a 3.47 FIP and a 4.14 xFIP. It shouldn’t come as a big shock that Gray’s BABIP against with the Yankees is 40 points better than it was with the Athletics, who are the worst defensive team in baseball. Gray is still having problems ending innings, with a 63.1 percent LOB%. When you consider that Gray has a 3.37 ERA with a 3.27 FIP and a 3.42 xFIP in spite of a 64.3 percent LOB%, that is extremely impressive.

Gray has thrown his fastball a lot more in a Yankees uniform. He’s gone to his changeup and curveball less often. I presume that will be a change that we see today as he faces his new team’s chief rival. There does seem to be a little bit of a disconnect between Gray and his new catchers. Between the pitch usage change and the nine walks he has allowed in 18 innings, I’m not sure if there’s a high level of comfort just yet. He’s given up three unearned runs, so those have kept his ERA a tad lower, but he’s reliably worked six innings and induced a lot of weak contact.

Rick Porcello has not induced a lot of weak contact. In fact, he’s induced a lot of hard contact. Porcello’s home run rate has ballooned this season and his GB% rate has plummeted at the worst possible time with hitters around the league aware that chicks dig the long ball. It’s scary when a guy’s GB% drops by nearly four percent and his HR/FB% goes up nearly five percent. Theoretically, a pitcher’s HR/FB% should go down with a higher sample size of fly balls, but Porcello has shown very little command this season. He has that high home run rate and a .332 BABIP against. Fortunately, he doesn’t walk anybody and has a pretty good strikeout rate, so he only has a 4.59 ERA with a 4.30 FIP and a 4.26 xFIP.

Since the start of July, Porcello has been a little bit better with a 3.69 ERA because his BABIP has positively regressed. It’s down to .253 over his last eight starts, but he has compensated by allowing 11 home runs, so he has a 4.93 FIP. His GB% is back up around last year’s rate over those last eight starts as well. In looking at his pitch usage, it seems like he’s searching for answers. There has been very little consistency in his percentages throughout the year. Some starts he goes slider/curveball heavy. Other starts, he has double-digit usage of his changeup and not as many curveballs. Other times, he has low usage of his changeup and throws a lot of fastballs.

It’s too late in the season to be trying to figure those things out and figure out which pitch he has a feel for. I’m taking the Yankees today. As it is, everything is a five or six-inning game with their bullpen anyway. That bullpen is in fine shape from a usage standpoint. I just don’t trust Porcello against a lineup capable of making a lot of hard contact.

Cincinnati (-115) at Atlanta; Total: 9.5

There aren’t a lot of believers in Sean Newcomb right now. As you can see, the Reds are road favorites in Atlanta, where the players will play at SunTrust Park for today’s matchup. Cincinnati will counter with right-hander Luis Castillo, who throws extremely hard and has been impressive thus far.

Castillo has a 3.39 ERA with a 4.27 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP in his 66.1 innings of work this season. He’s carrying a low BABIP with a 56.4 percent GB%, so I’m certainly worried about some regression in that area. One of the things I look at in late August and September is workload for pitchers. Castillo is a max effort type of guy that throws in the upper 90s at just 6-foot-2 and 170 pounds. If he lasts 3.1 innings or more today, he’ll cross the 150-inning mark. Last year he only worked 131.2 innings in the Marlins organization. With some built-in signs of regression with a low BABIP and a high ground ball rate and an 80.1 percent LOB%, I’ve got concerns about Castillo going forward this season.

Sean Newcomb may not have been ready for the big leagues, but the Braves had nothing to lose except for more games by calling him up. After posting a 2.97 ERA with a 3.22 FIP and a 3.50 xFIP in the minors over 57.2 innings, he got the call to The Show. In 64.2 innings covering 12 starts, Newcomb has a 4.45 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. He’s stuck out well over a batter per inning, but Newcomb has been plagued by high walk rates throughout his career. With 69 strikeouts and 37 walks, 106 of his 289 plate appearances against haven’t resulted in a ball in play. He’s also allowed nine home runs.

Newcomb is nowhere near last year’s career-high of 140 innings, so there should still be a little more left in that left arm. He’s a frustrating guy. He struck out seven in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers on August 3, but he also walked seven. The potential is undoubtedly there. I think I’m going to tap into that potential today. We’ve got the unfamiliar lefty angle with Newcomb here against the Reds, who have not seen him yet this season. He’s really only struggled against the Astros (7 ER in 3.1), Cubs (5 ER in 5.1), and Dodgers (7 BB). The Reds, while a solid lineup, aren’t on par with those teams.

Give me the Braves, but I would wait on this number because I would suspect it goes up as we get closer to gametime.

Milwaukee at Colorado (-125); Total: 12.5

Welcome back to the big leagues, Chase Anderson. Now go pitch at Coors Field. Anderson has been on the shelf since June 28, with a couple minor league rehab starts before coming back to the big leagues. His oblique injury could not have come at a worse time. The Brewers were already struggling to hold on in the NL Central. Well, his return could not come at a better time, as the Brewers and only suitors are closing the gap for the NL Wild Card and the NL Central is still sort of there for the taking.

Anderson has a 2.89 ERA with a 3.44 FIP and a 4.33 xFIP on the season. He’s done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and was in the midst of a career year when he got hurt. His minor league rehab starts didn’t go particularly well, as he got rocked in Triple-A with four runs allowed on six hits in 4.1 innings of work, but he’s back and that’s big for the Brewers. If his command is on point, he could be in line for some success, especially with his offense going up against a left-hander with some concerns of his own.

We haven’t talked much about Kyle Freeland lately. Freeland has a 3.74 ERA with a 4.75 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP on the season. He’s been able to survive because of a 78.5 percent LOB%. He has a low strikeout rate and a slightly above average walk rate, so FIP and xFIP aren’t going to be a fan. Consider that he has a 14.2 percent HR/FB% with a 55.6 percent ground ball rate and it’s easy to see why the advanced metrics don’t like him. Anybody with an extreme split one way or another generally has FIP/xFIP problems. Freeland is that guy.

The fact that he has been able to sustain a 78.5 percent LOB% in Coors Field as a low-strikeout pitcher is confounding. But, he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact, so he’s somewhat immune to the other things that pitchers have to deal with in Denver. He’s going to keep the Rockies in the game in all likelihood. Will Chase Anderson do the same for the Brewers?

I don’t know. I would keep exposure low on this game. I think the total of 12.5 is a little bit steep for a soft-tossing lefty that can prey on Milwaukee’s aggressiveness and a pitcher that has had a lot of success this season, even if he’s coming back from an injury. That would be my only lean here.

Washington (-105) at San Diego; Total: 7.5

Please, oh please, oh please, baseball gods, give me back Friday’s Arizona loss. Here’s how this one sets up. The Nationals have tomorrow off and head to Houston for a big litmus test of a series against the Astros. That means that this isn’t the greatest of situational spots against the lowly Padres. Washington has no concerns in the division and is virtually locked into playing at home against the Cubs in the NLDS.

Gio Gonzalez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball to me. He has a 2.49 ERA with a 3.92 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP. He has a .241 BABIP and an 85.7 percent LOB%. His BABIP is 51 points below his career average and 75 points below last season’s mark. His LOB% is 11.9 percent better than his career average and 18.1 percent better than last season. He actually has a higher FIP and xFIP than last season when he posted a 4.57 ERA.

Gonzalez is a straight fade candidate for me. He has only allowed three runs on 15 hits over his last four starts covering 28 innings of work. I don’t see this as a sustainable level of performance for him. I realize the Padres aren’t very good, but I’m fading Gio Gonzalez here.

It helps to have a fun pitcher like Dinelson Lamet on the other side. Lamet has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.14 xFIP. He’s struck out 92 in 75.1 innings of work. Lamet has quietly strung together five very good starts, with eight runs allowed on 17 hits in his last 30.1 innings of work. He’s a buy candidate for me as he gets more of a feel for how to pitch. His home run rate started high, but he’s really cut that down of late.

Give me the Padres today.

St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh (-110); Total: 9.5

The Cardinals and Pirates play in Williamsport, Pennsylvania today, the home of the Little League World Series. It’s some sort of players’ weekend gimmick from MLB. I won’t have a play here, since I have no idea how either team will fare. The Pirates host the Dodgers tomorrow and will be a huge dog. The Cardinals are idle, so there’s nothing to look at for tomorrow’s slate.