MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, August 4

Sunday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-210, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Detroit's Rick Porcello was brilliant in the month of July. He won all four of his starts and posted a 2.08 ERA.

Cold batting stat: Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox is 5-for-36 (.139) in his career versus Porcello.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 11 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The under is 5-1 in Porcello's last six starts versus the White Sox.

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-185, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Seattle's Joe Saunders put up identical nine hit, five earned run performances in his last two outings. His ERA is 9.31 in those previous two starts.

Hot batting stat: Mariners OF Michael Morse hit a two-run homer off O's starter Wei-Yin Chen on May 1. Morse is 3-for-5 with a walk in his career versus the Orioles' southpaw.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 15 mph.

Key betting note: The Orioles are 5-0 in Chen's last five home starts.

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Twins starter Mike Pelfrey took a beating in his last start. The righty gave up eight hits, four earned runs and a home run en route to the 7-2 loss versus the Kansas City Royals on July 30.

Hot batting stat: Twins 2B Brian Dozier went 3-for-7 with a run and two RBIs, including the walk off, game-winning single in the bottom of the 13th inning in Friday's 4-3 victory.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph. There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast for gametime.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in umpire Jim Reynolds' last nine Sunday games behind home plate.

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-141, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Toronto's Mark Buehrle has been a breath of fresh air for Jays' pitching. The lefty is 2-0 while tossing 16 shutout innings over his last two starts.

Hot batting stat: Jays 1B/DH Adam Lind is 5-for-10 with a homer, double and triple in his career versus Angels starter C.J. Wilson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1 in Buehrle's last eight road starts.

Texas Rangers at Oakland A's (-125, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Oakland's starter A.J. Griffin has surrendered eight homers in his previous three starts.

Cold batting stat: A's OF Coco Crisp is just 1-for-10 in his career versus Rangers starter Derek Holland.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 12 mph.

Key betting note: The Rangers are 8-1 in Holland's last nine starts versus the American League West.

Interleague

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-185, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: After reeling off three straight wins, Sox starter Felix Doubront has lost his last two outings.

Cold batting stat: Sox 1B Mike Napoli is 3-for-16 (.188) lifetime versus scheduled DBacks starter Brandon McCarthy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left field to right field at 6 mph. There is a 10 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Key betting note: The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six games versus a left-handed starter.

San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-200, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Guillermo Moscoso is slated to get to the start for San Francisco. It will be his first start of the season.

Hot batting stat: Giants 1B Brandon Belt busted out of his slump in a big way Friday. Belt went 3-for-4 with a home run and triple in the Giants' 4-1 victory.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Rays' SP Roberto Hernandez's last eight starts overall.

Sunday Night Baseball: Braves at Phillies
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

The hot Atlanta Braves face the slumping Phillies in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Baseball.

LEE-VING IT ON THE MOUND

The Phillies will welcome the return of Cliff Lee to the mound where he is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season. The lefty missed his last start due to neck stiffness. Lee last pitched on July 21st in New York against the Mets; he allowed five runs and seven hits in six innings. That was his third straight outing in which he allowed four earned runs or more. Lee beat the Braves at home on July 5 despite allowing four runs and eight hits in just over six innings. The southpaw pitched fantastically to open his season in Atlanta back on April 4 giving up just two hits in eight innings.

WOOD LIKE ANOTHER VICTORY

Alex Wood is making his third start of the season; he is coming off a victory over the Rockies. Wood gave up three runs and six hits in seven innings to pick up the win over Colorado. The southpaw struck out 12 while walking only three in his two previous starts this season. He threw 1 2/3 innings in Philadelphia back on July 6 and 7 and gave up one run and two hits. The southpaw was 5-2 with a 1.31 ERA in 11 starts between AA and AAA this season. Wood struck out 62 in those games while walking only 17.

INJURY REPORT

These two NL East rivals are two of the most banged up teams in the league. As mentioned above, Cliff Lee is dealing with a stiff neck. His rotation mates Jonathan Pettibone and Roy Halladay are out due to shoulder ailments. Ben Revere and Ryan Howard are out of the lineup due to knee and foot problems. Mike Adams is done for the season with three tears in his shoulder.

The Braves’ bullpen is nowhere near 100% with Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters both getting Tommy John surgery. Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm are both out of the rotation with Hudson done for the season. Reed Johnson and Jordan Schafer are also on the disabled list as well.

TRENDS

Braves are 16-7 in their last 23 Sunday games
Braves are 1-5 their last six games with ump Kerwin Danley behind home plate

Phillies are 3-8 in Lee’s last 11 Sunday starts
Phillies are 19-9 Under in Lee’s last 28 starts

HITTERS TO WATCH

Jimmy Rollins 0-for-2 vs. Wood
Darin Ruf 1-for-1 vs. Wood

Jason Heyward 2-for-17 vs. Lee
Brian McCann 8-for-23 vs. Lee

Sunday MLB Thoughts
By Dave Essler

Braves-Phillies: Braves are the best hitting team over the last week and Lee has had extra rest. Atlanta 16-12 against LHP so in spite of Wood's youth I can't take the Phillies. Braves clearly better pen if it comes to that.

Reds-Cardinals: Perhaps the two pitchers that have my number more than most. Obvious edge to the Reds bullpen. Leake with some revenge for an early June loss to St. Louis. Lynn impressive but against weaker offenses. Best case I could make here is for the over, but need to see lineups.

Colorado-Pittsburgh: Nicasio shelled at Atlanta so clearly AJ is even more inflated here. Pirates have seen him once, so there's no reason to think they won't score. Burnett three straight 100+ pitch games and hasn't been pitching past the 7th. Not laying the juice, and could actually make a case for 8 runs being scored here.

Washington-Brewers: Clearly the early/overnight money is on Washington, but Lohse is quite capable, and has really only had one bad game. He beat Washington badly at Washington earlier, so perhaps he can do it again. Clearly they (the Brewers) were probably favored for a reason, but because Jordan is such a ground ball pitcher, I lean under.

Dodgers-Cubs: With Fife not having pitched since July 6th (at this level) it might be tough to take the Dodgers. With Villaneuva never pitching deep and two high pitch count games in a row, I could see this being a higher scoring game. My guess is that the total will get bet in that direction fairly early. Have not checked the weather.

White Sox-Detroit: I don't know enough about Rienzo (yet) to call it. He shut down Cleveland in his first appearance, but this isn't the Indians. Clearly not laying -225. Porcello just threw two straight games against Chicago, and as you'd expect one good one and one less good. He IS a ground ball pitcher, so under perhaps, and maybe a case for the Chicago RL, depending on lineups.

Seattle-Baltimore: I suppose, against a left-handed pitcher, I could make a case for the Mariners here, at least the RL. The Orioles bullpen hasn't been solid, and LHP might negate a bit of Davis/Markakis/Wieiters. But, It's always tough to take the Mariners against a LHP, so I lean under.

Toronto-LAA: It's interesting that as well as Wilson had been pitching he's only -140 or so. Buerhle one of those fesat or famine pitchers that just had his feast against Oakland. Wilson's toughest outings against good teams on the road, and Toronto has actually fared a little better against LHP this season. I suppose I could take the under and maybe the Toronto RL in their attempt to avoid the sweep, but it's hard to go against the hot team. Hate this game.

Texas-Oakland: Again the early money is on the Rangers, but that could be a setup. Oakland is a great home team and well above .500 against LHP so there is no chance without looking much further that I could take Texas. But, given that Griffin is a flyball pitcher and not unfamiliar with Texas, I could see runs being scored.

Miami-Cleveland: The Fish have been one of the worst teams against LHP all season, but I prefer to back Cleveland against LHP. Eovaldi's been solid in only a few homes games, and with the erratic nature of both teams, probably best to leave this one alone. At least me. I lean over a little.

Royals-Mets: That's a ton of love for the Royals against the potential of Wheeler, but with Wright out it's tough to take the Mets. Santana can be had here, IMO, especially against what's probably a left handed heavy lineup coming out. With the total dropping I could see taking the Mets RL if one were so inclined.

Arizona-Boston: With McCarthy coming off the DL there's just no telling what we'll see from him, and Doubront is perhaps the most unpredictable pitcher North of the Mason Dixon line. Just too steep for me to lay -190 against the potential of the D-Backs to go off, so I could make a case for the Arizona RL, which is fairly cheap because the total is high.

Rays-Giants: Much like yesterday, there is no chance that Fausto should be -200 against anyone. If this were Houston or Miami would he be -300 or what? And just like yesterday, the Rays are a better bet against LHP. Giants RL again or nothing.

Yankees-Chargers: Kennedy makes his big debut for the Padres. Soriano the only Yankee to see him, but he's 6-13 so there's my fantasy player for the day. I suspect New York is only -110 because it's Phil Hughes, but with Quentin questionable I'd have to lean Yankees, in part because we like the Padres better against LHP.

MLB Odds and Picks – Cliff Lee looks to get back on track against Braves
By: Bill Bender
Sportingnews.com

It's time for Cliff Lee to go out and do what he does best, and Sunday's primetime start against the Atlanta Braves presents the perfect opportunity.

Lee was the subject of countless trade rumors, but he ended up staying with the Philadelphia Phillies (at least for now). He has struggled of late, especially in his last start before the break (7 IP, 4 ER vs. Washington) and first start after the break (6 IP, 5 ER, vs. New York). The Phillies have lost four of his last five starts.

While that might lead bettors to take the Braves, The Linemakers still like the Phillies at -120.

We trust Lee in this spot. He's 6-4 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 career starts against Atlanta. He's 2-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.70 WHIP against the Braves this season.

That's not all. Atlanta hits just .245 against lefthanders. Lee has allowed seven homers in his last two starts, but if he keeps the ball in the park, Philadelphia should be OK here.

Atlanta's Alex Wood, a fellow lefthander, will start opposite Lee. Wood has shown promise, but the Braves are 1-2 in his three starts.

Sunday's selections

Yankees (Hughes) -104 at Padres (Kennedy)

Phillies (Lee) -120 vs. Braves (Wood)

Sunday's Betting Notes
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Interleague Notes

Kansas City at N.Y. Mets

This series is tied 1-1 with the Mets winning 4-2 on Friday and the Royals capturing a 4-3 win in 12 innings on Saturday.

Kansas City has won all three of Ervin Santana’s starts since the All-Star break. Santana has watched the ‘under’ go 15-6 overall and 7-2 in day games. Also, the Royals are 0-2 against the National League this season when Santana starts and the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in those losses.

The Mets have won five straight starts with Zach Wheeler on the hill. New York has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 in his seven starts.

New York is 9-3 versus the American League this season, while KC is only 6-7 versus the NL.

The Mets have watched the ‘under’ cash in five straight and KC has been a solid ‘under’ 32-21 (60%) look on the road this season.

Cleveland at Miami

Miami posted a 10-0 shutout win on Friday while Cleveland earned a 4-3 victory last night.

The Indians have gone 3-7 in Scott Kazmir’s 10 road starts and the club is 1-2 in Kazmir’s starts versus the NL this season. Miami has struggled (13-18) against lefthanders this season, hitting .228, which is the third worst in the majors.

Miami lost in Nathan Eovaldi’s last appearance on Tuesday to the Mets (4-2) but the team hasn’t dropped consecutive games with him on the hill this season.

Cleveland is 8-5 versus the NL while Miami has struggled to a 4-9 record against the NL.

The Marlins have seen the ‘under’ go 13-3 since the All-Star break.

Arizona at Boston

The first two games of this series have been split with Arizona winning 7-6 on Friday and Boston bouncing back with a 5-2 win yesterday.

The Red Sox have dropped two straight with Felix Doubront on the hill, both setbacks against Tampa Bay (2-1, 5-2). Doubront has watched the ‘under’ cash in his last five starts at Fenway Park.

Arizona has gone 20-16 against lefthanders, hitting for a .262 average, ranked fifth in MLB.

Boston is 8-3 vs. the NL this season while Arizona is 5-6 in Interleague play.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay

San Francisco almost won its second straight against Tampa Bay yesterday but came up short in extra innings, 2-1.

The Rays have won three straight games at home with Robert Hernandez on the mound. According to Marc Lawrence’s August Pitchers Report, this month hasn’t been good for the artist formerly known as Fausto Carmona.

Tampa Bay is 11-3 versus the NL while San Francisco is 3-7 versus the AL.

N.Y. Yankees at San Diego

New York bounced back from Friday’s 7-2 loss to the Padres with a 3-0 victory on Saturday.

The Yankees have come out on top in Phil Hughes’ last two starts even though he received a pair of no decisions. Hughes hasn’t helped New York in day games (1-4) this season but he’s only been getting three runs per game from the offense.

Ian Kennedy will make his first start of the season for the Padres after being picked up in a trade from Arizona. Prior to the trade, the Diamondbacks lost nine of his previous 10 starts.

The Padres are 7-10 versus the AL while the Yankees are 7-9 against the NL.

New York has seen the ‘under’ go 32-18 (64%) on the road this season, which includes yesterday’s easy ticket. Also, the Yankees have watched the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their Interleague games on the road.

Pitchers to Watch

The Detroit Tigers have won four straight games with Rick Porcello on the hill. The victories have all been by more than three runs. The Tigers have won seven straight and will be looking to sweep the White Sox, who have dropped nine in a row.

Toronto’s Mark Buehrle has won two straight games, both shutout victories (4-0, 5-0). The Blue Jays will be looking to avoid a four-game sweep to the Angels this afternoon.

The Pirates haven’t been able to win consecutive games with A.J. Burnett on the mound since early May. He’s coming off a no decision on Tuesday when Pittsburgh beat St. Louis 2-1 at home.

Milwaukee went 2-8 in Kyle Lohse’s first 10 starts of the season. Since then, the Brewers are 9-3 in last 12 starts and that includes a 6-0 run at home.

The Dodgers are 13-4 with Zach Greinke on the hill this season. As a road favorite, Greinke has gone 3-1.

The Chicago Cubs are 0-4 in Carlos Villanueva's last four starts. The Cubs have dropped three straight to the Dodgers, who have won 13 straight road games.

The Phillies have dropped four of the last five starts by Cliff Lee. He missed his scheduled start last Saturday and will be pitching for the first time since July 21. Philadelphia has gone 2-0 in Lee’s two appearances against Atlanta this season. The Braves have won nine straight, the longest active winning streak in baseball.

Total Notes

Baltimore vs. Seattle: Bruce Chen has been a clear-cut ‘under’ pitcher this season, producing a 10-2 ledger to the low side, which includes six straight tickets. Coincidentally, Chen faced the Mariners on May 1 and he was rocked for eight hits and five earned runs in just four innings. The result (8-3) was one of his two ‘over’ winners this season. An opener of 9 ½ runs was sent out, which seems high with Chen’s numbers but make a note that Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1-1 in Saunders last seven starts. Also, in Saunders’ last two starts, he’s been tagged for a combined 18 hits and 10 earned runs. Both pitchers are lefthanders and bettors should be aware that Seattle is hitting just .228 against southpaws this season, second worst production in MLB. Most books have dropped the total to 9 runs early this morning.

Chicago White Sox at Detroit: Rick Porcello has seen the ‘over’ go 8-2 in his 10 home games and 8-3 in day games.

St. Louis at Cincinnati: The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ cash in Lynn’s last 3 stars and seven of eight.

Colorado at Pittsburgh: Juan Nicasio has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 on the road this season.

Texas at Oakland: Derek Holland has seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in his road starts but the ‘under’ is 5-1 in afternoon games.

L.A. Dodgers at Chicago Cubs: The ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in Zach Greinke’s last five starts.

Washington at Milwaukee: The ‘under’ has gone 17-5 when Kyle Lohse starts for the Brewers this season, which includes a 70 percent (7-3) record at Miller Park.

Toronto at Los Angeles: The Angels have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 at home for C.J. Wilson this season, which includes his last four appearances from Anaheim. Mark Buehrle has been a great ‘under’ (15-6) bet this season.

Jays at Halos: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv

A series finale between a battle of southpaws is the baseball betting option we've selected for today as the Toronto Blue Jays close out the team’s four-game road series against the Los Angeles Angels this afternoon in Anaheim.

The Angels are -145 home favorites according to the current betting odds at Bovada, with a run total that has dropped to 8 since originally opening up a half-run higher.

Southpaw C.J. Wilson gets the call for the Angels, bringing an 11-6 record and 3.48 ERA to the hill. Wilson is certainly looking for a better performance that his last one, where he allowed six runs in just four innings, yet escaped with a no-decision against Texas last Tuesday.

Toronto’s lefty will be veteran Mark Buehrle, who has just a 7-7 mark in his first year with the Blue Jays, as well as a 4.27 ERA. However, in his last two starts, Buehrle has been as close to perfect as possible, allowing no runs on seven hits in 16 combined innings.

Such success for Buehrle has been evident all year when it comes during the daylight hours, with Toronto keeping the run total Under in six of seven games this season. In addition, the last four years when Buehrle has pitched in the role of an underdog during a day game, the Under is 10-5-3.

Wilson has his own ace in the hole when it comes to baseball betting, with the Under being the right call in eight of his 10 home starts this year. Combining that with his first season with the team in 2012 still gives a strong lean to the Under with a 14-7-4 mark.

The Angels as a team have certainly followed in that same vein, with Mike Scioscia’s squad compiling a 6-2 record in favor of the Under in its last eight home day games.

Matching that, the Under has been the correct betting option for most of the year when the Jays are an underdog during the day, sporting a 7-2 record in that select category.

Finally, the fact that this game is the series finale has no doubt caught the attention of the sharper sports handicappers in the baseball betting universe, since the Under is 6-2 in the last eight Toronto road series-enders.

Both teams are capable of explosive offense, but the view from here is that today, pitching will be at a premium.

Play Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Under 8

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