MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, August 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Cubs
Fedde allowed seven runs in four IP (87 PT) in his first MLB start— Nationals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Lester is 3-0, 2.77 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Cubs are 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9
Nationals are 3-5 in last eight games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Cubs are 7-4 in last 11 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Cardinals @ Reds
Wainwright is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. St Louis is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-6-4
Bailey is 1-3, 7.36 in his last four starts (over 3-1); Reds are 0-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5
Cardinals lost four of last seven road games; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Cincinnati won four of last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
Padres @ Pirates
Richard is 0-4, 9.26 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. San Diego is 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-15
Taillon is 1-3, 12.46 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Pirates are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8
Padres won six of last eight games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Pittsburgh lost seven of last nine games; under is 19-4 in their last 23 home games.
Dodgers @ Mets
Ryu is 0-0, 2.38 in his last four starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Dodgers are 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8
Matz is 0-3, 11.57 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. New York is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7
Dodgers won 12 of last 13 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Mets lost eight of last ten games; under is 3-2 in their last five games.
Marlins @ Braves
Urena is 2-1, 3.32 in his last three starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Miami is 7-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6
Sims allowed three runs in six IP (92 PT) in his MLB debut, against the Dodgers. Atlanta’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Marlins won six of last ten games; over is 7-5 in their last 12. Atlanta lost seven of last ten games; under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
Phillies @ Rockies
Nola is 5-2, 1.66 in his last eight starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Philly is 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9
Hoffman is 0-2, 11.08 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four starts. Colorado is 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6
Phillies lost their last four games; under is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Colorado won nine of last 11 home games; over is 7-3 in their last ten.
Diamondbacks @ Giants
Corbin is 2-1, 5.49 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Arizona is 3-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12
Samardzija is 2-0, 3.00 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Giants are 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-12-6
Arizona is 5-4 in its last nine games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight. Giants lost five of last eight games; over is 5-1 in their last six.
American League
Tigers @ Orioles
Sanchez is 3-1, 5.14 in his last five starts (over 4-4). Detroit is 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2-1
Jimenez is 0-3, 6.14 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Orioles are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2
Tigers are 6-2 in last eight games; over is 10-7-1 in their last 18 road games. Baltimore is 12-7 in last 19 games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
New York @ Cleveland
Severino is 3-0, 1.36 in his last four starts; over is 11-6 in his last 17 starts. New York is 5-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-3
Carrasco is 0-1, 6.10 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Indians are 7-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-1
New York lost four of its last five games- eight of their last nine games stayed under. Cleveland won 11 of its last 15 games; under is 5-1 in their last six.
White Sox @ Red Sox
Pelfrey is 0-5, 6.95 in his last seven starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Chicago is 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-2
Fister is 1-3, 6.75 in five starts this season (under 3-2). Boston is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4
White Sox are 3-18 since All-Star break; over is 5-4 in their last nine games. Boston won five of last seven games; under is 16-5-1 in last 22 games at Fenway Park.
Mariners @ Royals
Ramirez allowed three runs in 3.1 IP (58 PT) in his first start for Seattle. Mariners’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0……..Gonzales is making his first start for Seattle; he allowed five runs in 3.1 IP in his only ’17 start, for St Louis and was 8-4, 3.20 in 13 AAA starts this year.
Kennedy is 1-1, 5.40 in his last five starts; over is 11-4-1 in his last 16 starts. Royals are 4-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3……..Duffy is 2-0, 2.95 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Royals are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-7-4
Mariners won nine of last 12 road games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 road games. Royals lost five of last seven games; five of their last six games stayed under.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Stroman is 2-0, 2.27 in his last five starts; under is 7-3-1 in his last 11. Toronto is 7-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-1
Fiers is 0-2, 7.84 in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Houston is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-3
Toronto won four of last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Houston lost seven of last ten games; over is 10-5 in their last 15 games.
Rangers @ Twins
Martinez is 3-1, 5.56 in his last four starts (under 7-5). Texas is 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1
Berrios is 1-3, 6.05 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under. Minnesota is 5-1 inches home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2
Rangers lost five of last eight games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Minnesota lost nine of last 12 games; under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.
A’s @ Angels
Manaea is 0-1, 7.47 in his last three starts; his last five starts went over. Oakland is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-6
Nolasco is 1-1, 2.84 in his last two starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Angels are 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-11-4
A’s lost four of last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Angels won six of their last seven home games; four of their last six games overall went over.
Interleague
Brewers @ Rays
Nelson is 4-1, 3.30 in his last seven starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Milwaukee is 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10
Archer is 1-1, 4.55 in his last five starts; over is 12-8-1 in his last 21. Rays are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-4-6
Brewers are 5-3 in last eight games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Rays got shut out the last two nights; under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Chi: Fedde 0-0; Lester 14-9
StL-Cin: Wainwright 12-8; Bailey 3-5
SD-Pitt: Richard 7-15; Taillon 7-8
LA-NY: Ryu 7-8; Matz 3-7
Mia-Atl: Urena 11-6; Sims 0-1
Phil-Colo: Nola 8-9; Hoffman 7-6
Az-SF: Corbin 10-12; Samardzija 9-13
American League
Det-Balt: Sanchez 5-3; Jimenez 9-8
Chi-Bos: Pelfrey 6-12; Fister 2-3
NY-Clev: Severino 12-9; Carrasco 15-6
Tor-Hst: Stroman 14-8; Fiers 12-9
Tex-Minn: Martinez 7-5; Berrios 9-6
Sea-KC: Ramirez 1-0 (6-2) Gonzales 0-0 (0-1); Kennedy 10-10 Duffy 8-9
A’s-LA: Manaea 9-11; Nolasco 6-16
Interleague
Mil-TB: Nelson 12-10; Archer 12-11
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Wsh-Chi: Fedde 0-0; Lester 9-23
StL-Cin: Wainwright 4-20; Bailey 6-8
SD-Pitt: Richard 7-22; Taillon 3-15
LA-NY: Ryu 7-15; Matz 4-10
Mia-Atl: Urena 3-17; Sims 0-1
Phil-Colo: Nola 3-17; Hoffman 5-13
Az-SF: Corbin 12-22; Samardzija 9-22
American League
Det-Balt: Sanchez 4-8; Jimenez 6-17
Chi-Bos: Pelfrey 5-18; Fister 2-5
NY-Clev: Severino 4-21; Carrasco 4-21
Tor-Hst: Stroman 4-22; Fiers 7-21
Tex-Minn: Martinez 3-12; Berrios 3-15
Sea-KC: Ramirez 6-9 Gonzales 0-1; Kennedy 4-20 Duffy 3-17
A’s-LA: Manaea 6-20; Nolasco 9-22
Interleague
Mil-TB: Nelson 3-22; Archer 5-23
Umpires
National League
Wsh-Chi: Under is 5-2 in last seven Carapazza games.
StL-Cin: Home team won both Additon games this year.
SD-Pitt: Five of last seven HGibson games went over.
LA-NY: Last four Timmons games stayed under the total.
Mia-Atl: Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miller games.
Phil-Colo: Last three Torres games stayed under.
Az-SF: Under is 9-3 in last dozen O’Nora games.
American League
Det-Balt: Last four Ortiz games stayed under the total.
Chi-Bos: Under is 11-2 in last thirteen Bellino games.
NY-Clev: Road team won four of last five Tumpane games.
Tor-Hst: Five of last seven Drake games stayed under.
Tex-Minn: Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Foster games.
Sea-KC: Underdogs are 11-8 in last 19 Diaz games.
A’s-LA: Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Kulpa games.
Interleague
Mil-TB: Over is 10-6-1 in last 17 Johnson games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 57-44 AL, favorites -$753
AL @ NL– 58-51 NL, favorites -$401
Total: 108-102 AL, favorites -$1,154
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 52-49-2
AL @ NL: Over 61-45-4
Total: Over 113-94-6
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (7-2 last nine) vs. White Sox
This section can be reserved for the Dodgers, who have won 43 of their last 50 games. However, Boston is trying to pull away from New York in the AL East by winning five straight games. The Red Sox finished off their west coast swing with a victory at Seattle following four consecutive losses. Boston goes for the four-game sweep of Chicago on Sunday prior to a crucial five-game road trip against the Rays and Yankees starting Tuesday.
Doug Fister picked up his first victory as a member of the Red Sox last Monday in a 6-2 triumph over the Indians as a short home underdog. Fister turned in his best start with Boston by allowing five hits and two earned runs in 7.2 innings of work. The right-hander split a pair of starts against the White Sox last season as a member of the Astros, while giving up eight earned runs in 11 innings of work.
Coldest team: Mets (2-8 last 10) vs. Dodgers
New York began its 10-game road trip in late July by picking up victories at San Diego. Things went downhill after that as the Mets lost the final two games to the Padres, while posting a 2-6 record in the last eight contests of that trip. The Mets couldn’t turn things around against the scorching-hot Dodgers by dropping the first two games, including blowing an early 3-0 lead in Saturday’s 7-4 setback.
Only once this season have the Mets been swept at home in a series of at least three games, coming against the Nationals in late April. New York has posted an 0-6 record against Los Angeles this season, while last beating the Dodgers on May 27, 2016 in a 6-5 walk-off victory.
Hottest pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees (8-4, 2.98 ERA)
Severino survived his June swoon in which he went through a four-start stretch without a victory. The right-hander has rebounded in a big way by going unbeaten in his last five trips to the mound, including recent home wins over the Tigers and Reds. Severino couldn’t extend his streak to five straight starts by tossing seven innings against Detroit on July 31, but he has allowed one earned run or less in four consecutive outings. The Yankees have won three of Severino’s four starts as a road underdog this season as he is listed as a ‘dog at Cleveland.
Coldest pitcher: Mike Pelfrey, White Sox (3-9, 5.04 ERA)
Pelfrey is winless in his past five starts since the beginning of July as Chicago has turned into a fade basically every night at this point. The veteran has given up 13 hits and 11 earned runs in his previous two outings against the Cubs and Blue Jays at home, while the White Sox last won on the road with Pelfrey on the mound at Toronto on June 17. Interestingly enough, Pelfrey scattered two hits in five scoreless innings the last time he faced the Red Sox on May 31, but Chicago fell short in a 4-1 defeat.
Biggest OVER run: Blue Jays (5-2 last seven)
Although Toronto and Houston finished UNDER the total on Saturday, the Blue Jays’ offense has been productive recently. The Jays scratched out a 4-3 victory in extra innings last night, extending their streak to seven consecutive games posting at least four runs. After getting torched for 16 runs in Friday’s loss, Toronto’s pitching rebounded by allowing only three runs to one of the best offenses in baseball. Marcus Stroman has hit consecutive OVERS for Toronto as the Blue Jays have provided the right-hander 16 runs of support in his past two outings.
Biggest UNDER run: Reds (6-1 last seven at home)
Cincinnati lost for the first time in six home meetings with St. Louis on Saturday, 4-1 as the Reds’ lone run came on a Joey Votto homer in the first inning. The Reds have been limited to four runs in the last three games overall, while scoring one run or fewer in four home games since the All-Star break. Saturday’s total closed at 8½, as the previous seven home contests for Cincinnati had a closing number of 9½ or higher. Homer Bailey has cashed the OVER in five of eight starts for the Reds this season, including three of the past four outings.
Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Mets
Winning in baseball betting lately is easy – as long as you back the Dodgers. Los Angeles improved to 9-1 on the road since the All-Star break in Saturday’s 7-4 victory at New York, as the Dodgers overcame a 3-0 first inning deficit to score seven unanswered runs. The Dodgers have lost just 11 times since the start of June, while winning 45 times during this stretch and turning a slim half-game deficit in the NL West to a 14-game cushion over second-place Arizona.
Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu has been extremely consistent for the Dodgers of late as Los Angeles has won five of his past six outings. Ryu has yielded two earned runs or less in five straight starts, but the Dodgers own a 1-6 record in his seven road assignments this season. Ryu beat the Mets at Chavez Ravine on June 22 in a 6-3 triumph as a -175 home favorite by scattering five hits and two earned runs in five innings.
The Mets have turned into a mess recently by dropping six of their last eight games, while compiling a dreadful 1-8 record in their past nine series finales. New York is 1-5 in Steven Matz’s last six starts, while the southpaw hasn’t tossed six innings in any of his previous five outings. Matz struck out eight batters in six innings of work at Los Angeles in that 6-3 defeat to Ryu in late June as the Mets are 1-2 in his three career starts against the Dodgers.
Betcha didn’t know: Ubaldo Jimenez has not been listed as a favorite of -130 or higher this season, but the Orioles’ right-hander opened as a -130 favorite against Detroit. Last season, the Orioles won all five of Jimenez’s starts as chalk of -130 or above, while Baltimore posted a 2-0 record in his two outings against Detroit.
Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-215) vs. White Sox
Biggest public underdog: Marlins (+110) at Braves
Dodgers, Mets meet Sunday
By: StatFox.com
The Dodgers will be hoping to close their series with the Mets out with a win on Sunday night.
Sunday Night Baseball this week will feature a matchup between two teams that are in very different situations right now. Los Angeles currently has the best record in baseball, and this team would consider the season a failure if it can’t win the World Series later this year. As for New York, the Mets would need a miracle to make it to the postseason. This is all after an offseason where they certainly felt as though they had a real chance to compete. Still, the Mets are going to be fired up for this Sunday night game. It is a home game on national television and New York is still playing for its pride. A win over the Dodgers would definitely make things a bit better in the locker room as well. The starters in this Sunday night game are set to be LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 3.83 ERA, 81 K) for Los Angeles and LHP Steven Matz (2-4, 5.50 ERA, 36 K) for New York. Both guys are capable of getting hit hard, so it wouldn’t be shocking if there were quite a few runs in this one.
The Dodgers will be hoping to finish off this series against the Mets with a win, and they should feel rather confident with Ryu on the mound in this one. Ryu was outstanding in his last trip to the hill, allowing no earned runs in seven innings of work against San Francisco on Jul. 30. The lefty struck out seven batters in that game, and he walked only one. He has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight starts, and he is really in a groove at the right time. It’s worth noting that one of those starts was against the Mets on Jun. 22, and Los Angeles won that game 6-3. On offense, one guy that is worth mentioning in this game is 3B Justin Turner. Turner should be amped up to be facing his former team on the national stage, and going against Matz is not going to scare him one bit. He has homered off of the lefty in his career, and it would not be surprising to see him do it again. He is far better hitting against lefties, which will have him excited here.
The Mets are sending Steven Matz to the mound on Sunday and he’ll need to be on his game if New York is going to beat an elite Los Angeles team in this one. Matz was actually as solid as could be in his most recent start, as the lefty allowed only three earned runs in five innings of work against the Rockies on Aug. 1. That is as potent of a lineup as he is going to face and he held his own in one of the least pitcher-friendly environments in baseball. Matz also happened to be solid against the Dodgers in his last start against them, allowing only three earned in six innings on Jun. 22. If he can turn in another one like that then the team should be fine. The Mets will just need guys like OFs Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce to show up here. They need some power from one of them, but Bruce does struggle against lefties.
MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com
MLB Favorite of the day: Cleveland Indians -117
The Indians are going to be playing the Yankees at Progressive Field this afternoon with Luis Severino starting against Carlos Carrasco. Both Cleveland and New York look like locks for the playoffs, but they are still locked in pretty tight divisional races. While the Indians were pretty quiet at the deadline acquiring only Joe Smith, the Yankees were the most aggressive team by a pretty large margin.
The Yankees are going to be starting their ace in Luis Severino. He has an ERA of 2.98, and an xFIP of 3.11, which has allowed him to be worth more than 4 wins already per fangraphs WAR. Severino has improved across the board for the Yankees, with a better strikeout rate, walk rate, and velocity this season compared to last season. Some people were ready to call Severino a back of the rotation starter, because it seemed like the velocity simply didn’t matter. His fastball goes in a very straight path, so hitters didn’t have any problems getting under it. This season though, the fastball has a positive run value, and it’s tough for me to figure out what’s changed. It looks very similar to last season, but I think it’s likely that something really has changed, and that Severino will continue to be a really good pitcher.
Carlos Carrasco has been the Indians second most dependable pitcher after only Corey Kluber. This season he has an ERA of 3.89, and an xFIP of 3.56. As he always has been, Carrasco has been striking out batters at a very high rate, with over a strikeout per inning, while walking batters at a lower than average rate. Carrasco’s problems this year have been the same as they always have been, durability. Fortunately, durability doesn’t matter much for individual starts, so I feel comfortable with Carrasco starting and winning this game, especially playing at home.
MLB Underdog of the day: Detroit Tigers +123
I’ve been picking the Tigers a lot since the deadline, in large part because I think the lines have been really strange for them. I’m not sure if it’s related to their selling of some of their best players at the deadline, but if it is, then I think it’s fair to say that the public has been overreacting. The Tigers are going to be playing Baltimore with Anibal Sanchez starting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
Ubaldo Jimenez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB in my opinion. He had a lot of really good seasons in Cleveland and Colorado, but like many pitchers, when he lost his velocity, he was never able to change his approach to be a more effective pitcher. He has an ERA of 6.56, and an xFIP of 4.76. This is a pretty stark difference, that may cause some bettors to think that Jimenez should be pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and I may agree with that to some degree, but I also think he’s much worse than his xFIP indicates. His batted ball profile is pretty bad, with only 17% soft hit balls, and 36% hard hit. He doesn’t allow almost any groundballs, so he allows a lot of extra base hits. I don’t think Jimenez is going to be pitching many quality starts this season.
Anibal Sanchez is also a pretty bad pitcher at this point in his career. He has an ERA of 5.83, and an xFIP of 4.77. So, in essence, is numbers are really similar to those of Jimenez. What is different though, is he is walking half as many, while having marginally better projections. To be honest, I don’t think that there’s much to defend in Sanchez, but the Tigers aren’t that much worse a team than Baltimore, so with roughly similar pitchers, at a neutral field the line should be even. Home field is simply not worth this much value to me, so I would take Detroit in this game.
MLB Over/Under of the day: San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 8
The Diamondbacks are going to be playing the Giants at AT&T Park, with Jeff Samardzija and Patrick Corbin starting. The Diamondbacks look like they will certainly get one of the two wild card spots in the National League, along with the Rockies, while the Giants look like one of the worst teams in the MLB. On the plus side for Giants fans though, their fan favorite Pablo Sandoval has found his way back there after being terrible for Boston, and never being able to lose weight.
Jeff Samardzija seems like he has gone largely unnoticed since he has left Chicago for San Francisco, but he has still been a pretty good pitcher for the Giants. His ERA is at 4.77, but the peripheral stats are very good, with an xFIP of 3.20. I have seen some concerns over his pitch sequencing that could be partially responsible for his large difference in ERA. I don’t know enough about ideal sequencing to say otherwise, but what I can say is that while Samardzija has been a pitcher whose ERA underperformed his peripherals, it has never been this extreme. Playing at a pitchers park should help him reduce any homeruns, so I feel pretty good about him this year. Corbin meanwhile has been one of the premier number 2 starters in the major leagues, so the under in San Francisco feels pretty good in this game.