MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 30th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Dickey is 0-2, 3.34 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Braves are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-3

Velasquez is 0-3, 6.34 in his last seven starts (over 8-3-1). Phillies are 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-8-1

Braves lost six of last seven games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Philly is 7-3 in its last ten games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Rockies @ Nationals
Freeland is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Colorado is 6-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-7-1. Gray is 1-1, 7.65 in five road starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven starts overall. Colorado is 3-2 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1

Fedde is making his first MLB start; he was 4-4, 3.72 in 27 minor league games (11 starts) this season. Jackson is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts for Washington (under 2-0). Nationals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1-1

Colorado lost seven of last nine road games; over is 10-3 in their last 13 games overall. Washington won four of last six games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Reds @ Marlins
Castillo is 0-3, 5.29 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Reds are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4

Straily is 0-2, 8.36 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Miami is 5-6 in his home starts— their 5-inning record with him: 12-8-1

Cincinnati is 2-14 in its last 16 games; under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 road games. Miami won seven of last nine games; five of last six Miami games went over.

Cubs @ Brewers
Lackey is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-2 in his last seven. Cubs are 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-13-1

Davies 5-0, 3.00 in his last six starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine. Brewers are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-4

Cubs are 12-3 since All-Star Game; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Milwaukee is 3-9 in its last 12 games; under is 4-0 in their last four home games.

Diamondbacks @ Cardinals
Walker is 0-1, 5.11 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Arizona is 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Lynn is 2-0, 0.71 in his last four starts; his last five stayed under total. St Louis is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9-1

Arizona is 4-8 in its last 11 road games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. St Louis won four of its last six games; under is 12-4-2 in their last 18 games.

Giants @ Dodgers
Bumgarner is 1-1, 3.93 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1). Giants are 0-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Ryu is 1-0, 3.48 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Giants lost five of last six road games; over is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Dodgers won their last seven games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.

Pirates @ Padres
Cole is 2-0, 2.52 in his last four starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Pirates won his last five road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-11-5

Richard is 0-4, 9.11 in his last five starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Padres are 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-1

Pirates lost six of last seven games; under is 3-0 in their last three games. San Diego won six of last eight home games; over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 games.

American League

Rays @ New York
Faria is 1-1, 3.79 in his last three starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Rays are 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-1-2

Montgomery is 1-1, 5.13 in his last five starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. New York is 5-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-1

Rays lost eight of last ten games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games. New York won eight of last nine games; five of their last seven games went over.

Angels @ Blue Jays
Chavez is 0-4, 6.81 in his last eight starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Angels are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-11-3

Valdez one run in six IP (77 PT) in his first start for Toronto, which stayed under. Jays’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0

Angels lost four of their last six games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Toronto won four of its last six games (under 4-2).

Royals @ Red Sox
Hammel is 0-1, 3.80 in his last four starts (under 4-0). Royals are 2-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-4

Pomeranz is 4-0, 3.12 in his last six starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Boston is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-9

Royals won nine of their last ten games; under is 5-2 in their last seven. Boston lost five of last seven games; under is 12-3-1 in last 16 games at Fenway Park.

Astros @ Tigers
McCullers is 0-1, 9.47 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Astros are 6-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-3

Verlander is 0-3, 4.85 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Detroit is 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-10-4

Astros won five of last eight games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Detroit lost seven of last ten games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.

Orioles @ Rangers
Miley is 0-2, 9.77 in his last three starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight. Orioles are 1-5 in his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-1

Perez is 1-2, 5.61 in his last four starts; over is 7-4 in his last 11. Texas is 5-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-3

Orioles lost five of last eight games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games. Texas is 5-8 in its last 13 games; under is 5-2-1 in their home games.

Indians @ White Sox
Tomlin is 3-0, 3.10 in his last three starts; over is 4-3 in his last seven. Indians are 3-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-4

Rodon is 1-4, 7.72 in five starts this year (over 2-1-2). Chicago is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-4

Cleveland won its last nine games; over is 7-3 in their last ten. White Sox are 1-13 since All-Star Game; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight.

Twins @ A’s
Colon is 0-1, 7.00 in two starts for Minnesota (over 1-1). Twins are 0-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2

Cotton is 2-2, 5.06 in his last four starts (under 2-0-2). Oakland is 2-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Twins lost five of their last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Oakland lost nine of last 12 games; under is 4-2-1 in their last six.

Interleague

Mets @ Mariners
Lugo is 2-0, 3.72 in his last three starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Mets are 4-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-2-1

Paxton is 5-0, 1.62 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Seattle is 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4-3

Mets are 4-7 in last 11 road games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Seattle is 6-14 in its last 20 home games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Col-Wsh: Freeland 12-7 Gray 6-2; Fedde 0-0 Jackson 1-1
Atl-Phil: Dickey 11-9; Velasquez 4-8
Cin-Mia: Castillo 2-5; Straily 11-10
Chi-Mil: Lackey 10-9; Davies 14-7
Az-StL: Walker 10-5; Lynn 10-11
SF-LA: Bumgarner 1-6; Ryu 6-8
Pitt-SD: Cole 13-8; Richard 7-14

American League
TB-NY: Faria 7-2; Montgomery 8-11
LA-Tor: Chavez 8-12; Valdez 1-0 (1-0)
KC-Bos: Hammel 6-14; Pomeranz 13-7
Hst-Det: McCullers 12-6 (0-4 last 4); Verlander 8-13
Balt-Tex: Miley 10-11; Perez 7-12
Clev-Chi: Tomlin 8-11; Rodon 1-4
Minn-A’s: Colon 1-1 (5-8 ); Cotton 5-9

Interleague
NY-Sea: Lugo 6-2; Paxton 11-6

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Col-Wsh: Freeland 5-19 Gray 2-8; Fedde 0-0 Jackson 1-2
Atl-Phil: Dickey 7-20; Velasquez 4-12
Cin-Mia: Castillo 2-7; Straily 5-21
Chi-Mil: Lackey 10-19; Davies 8-21
Az-StL: Walker 6-15; Lynn 6-21
SF-LA: Bumgarner 1-7; Ryu 7-14
Pitt-SD: Cole 8-21; Richard 6-21

American League
TB-NY: Faria 2-9; Montgomery 4-19
LA-Tor: Chavez 4-20; Valdez 1-2
KC-Bos: Hammel 2-20; Pomeranz 5-20
Hst-Det: McCullers 4-18; Verlander 6-21
Balt-Tex: Miley 8-21; Perez 8-19
Clev-Chi: Tomlin 6-19; Rodon 3-5
Minn-A’s: Colon 5-15; Cotton 5-14

Interleague
NY-Sea: Lugo 2-8; Paxton 6-17

Umpires

National League
Col-Wsh: Under is 7-2 in last nine Winters games. Under is 11-1-3 in Blakney games this season.
Atl-Phil: Last eight Hoberg games went over the total.
Cin-Mia: Four of last five Fletcher games went over.
Chi-Mil: Under is 5-3-1 in last nine Hoye games.
Az-StL: Underdogs are 9-3 in last twelve Reyburn games.
SF-LA: Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Vanover games.
Pitt-SD: Over is 8-3 in last eleven Demuth games.

American League
TB-NY: Over is 3-0-1 in last four Barksdale games.
LA-Tor: Over is 2-1 in Barber games this season.
KC-Bos: Four of last five Lentz games stayed under.
Hst-Det: Four of last five DeJesus games stayed under.
Balt-Tex: Over is 10-5 in last fifteen Segal games.
Clev-Chi: Six of last eight LBarrett games stayed under.
Minn-A’s: Five of last seven Cuzzi games went over.

Interleague
NY-Sea: Last four Meals games went over the total.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 52-42 AL, favorites -$856
AL @ NL– 56-49 NL, favorites -$366
Total: 101-98 AL, favorites -$1,222

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 48-46-2
AL @ NL: Over 60-42-4
Total: Over 108-88-6

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (9-0 past nine overall)

The Indians have won nine straight games to seize a three-game lead in the American League Central over the Kansas City Royals. They've also ascended to the second-best record in the American League, going 12 games over .500, including 29-21 in 50 games away from home. Their plus-103 run differential is also third-best in the AL, and sixth-best in the majors. They'll face LHP Carlos Rodon in Sunday's road series finale. Cleveland is 10-3 in their past 13 gameso n Sunday, and 9-3 over their past 12 vs. LHP, including 6-2 in their past eight on the road against southpaws. They turn to Josh Tomlin to cap off the sweep. While the Indians are 20-8 over his past 28 against teams with a losing record, they're just 1-4 over his past five road outings and 0-4 in his past four inside the division.

Coldest team: White Sox (1-14 past 15 overall)

The White Sox sold off key parts of their team in recent weeks, and they resemble more of a high-end Triple-A team with some major league parts rather than a club ready to make any noise. They have dropped 36 of their past 51 games overall, including seven in a row at home against teams with a winning road record. They're also 0-4 in their past four vs. RHP and 3-13 over their past 16 games inside the division. The White Sox turn to Carlos Rodon, who is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA overall, but 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA against the Indians over his career. On the flip side, Cleveland's starter Josh Tomlin has served up 10 runs in just 4 1/3 innings across two starts against the ChiSox this season.

Hottest pitcher: Lance Lynn, Cardinals (8-6, 3.21 ERA)

Lynn has been pitching well despite the fact he is just two games over .500 after 21 starts. He still ranks 11th in the majors in ERA at 3.21, and opponents are hitting just .210 against him over 120 2/3 innings with 107 strikeouts and a strong 1.10 WHIP. Lynn takes the ball at home against the Diamondbacks looking to work on his already impressive ERA at Busch Stadium II. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA over nine home starts with a 42:16 K/9 ratio and stellar .199 opponent batting average, serving up just six homers over 53 1/3 innings. He has caught fire in July, going 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA over five starts, allowing just four runs and five walks with 21 strikeouts over 30 2/3 innings.

Coldest pitcher: Clayton Richard, Padres (5-11, 5.37 ERA)

Richard takes the mound against a Pirates team certain to be angry after dropping each of their past four games, including the first two in this series. In fact, after ascending to within two games of first place in the National League Central, the Pirates have dropped six of their past seven. Still, nothing comes easy for Richard. He is tied for the major league lead with 76 earned runs allowed over 127 1/3 innings while opponents are hitting a robust .329 against him over 21 starts while he has posted a dismal 1.61 WHIP. San Diego is just 1-6 over Richard's past seven outings, and 0-4 in his past four at home.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (20-6-1 past 27 overall)

The 'under' has been a great play in games involving the Bucs, going 20-6-1 over the past 27 games overall and 14-2 over their past 16 games following a loss. Gerrit Cole has been ace-like lately, too, with the 'under' going 14-5 over his past 19 outings. That includes an impressive 8-3 'under' mark over Cole's past 11 road outings, although the 'over' has hit in six of Pittsburgh's past seven on the road against left-handed starting pitching. The over is also 7-1-1 in San Diego's past nine home games, and 9-1 in their past 10 vs. RHP. As mentioned, Richard has been terrible, too, and the over is 5-0-1 across his past six home starts and 5-1 over his past six overall.

Biggest OVER run: Mets (5-1 past six road games)

The Mets are the only team in the majors with 60 or more 'over' results this season, going 60-31-11 through 102 games. The overh as connected in five of their past six road games, five of the past six against teams with a losing overall record and four in a row on the road in interleague games against a left-handed starter. The over has also been a frequent occurrence with Seth Lugo on the bump, going 5-1-1 over his past seven, including 3-0-1 in his past four road assignments. The over hasn't been coming through in starts by James Paxton lately, as the 'under' is 4-1 over his past five starts. However, the over is 4-1 in his past five interleague matchups and the over is 7-3-1 in Seattle's past 11 interleague home games against a right-handed starter.

Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Giants

These archrivals are going in completely opposite directions this season, as the Giants are 21 games under .500 while the Dodgers are 25 games over the break-even mark. As such, San Francisco finds themselves a whopping 33 1/2 games back in the National League West. Don't look for the Giants to lay down, however, as they've fought hard in the first two games of the series. Ty Blach pitched well in a 2-1 loss against Rich Hill in the second battle of southpaws in as many nights. The Giants have won just six of their past 19 games overall, though, and they're 1-7 across their past eight divisional games. Madison Bumgarner won for the first time in 2017 last time out, but the Giants are 1-6 over his past seven outings and 0-4 in his past four on the road. The Dodgers have buried southpaws, as L.A. is 22-4 over their past 26 games vs. LHP while going 11-1 in their past 12 inside the division.

Betcha didn’t know: The Dodgers turn to Hyun-Jin Ryu to keep the ball rolling against MadBum and the Giants. He hasn't been able to make it through six innings in five consecutive outings, although he has yielded just two runs in each of the past four while the Dodgers are 3-1 across his past four assignments. He is 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA across 10 career starts vs. the Giants, but many of those meetings were against much, much better San Francisco offenses. Bumgarner should bring his best as the Giants look to avoid the broom. He is 14-9 with a 2.70 ERA over his career against the rivals, as the team elected to move up his scheduled start from Monday to Sunday to give the Dodgers a run for their money.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-270) vs. Giants

Biggest public underdog: Braves (+120) at Phillies

Biggest line move: Blue Jays (-125 to -145) vs. Angels

MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
Bangthebook.com

MLB Favorite of the day: Boston Red Sox -158

The Red Sox and Royals are playing Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park early in the afternoon. The Royals have been near unbeatable since the all-star break, and it’s encouraged them to look into buying at the trade deadline. Drew Pomeranz and Jason Hammel are going to be starting for the Red Sox and Royals respectively.

Drew Pomeranz has one of my favorite stories of any players in the MLB, mostly because it seems strange that he’s found a pretty significant amount of success. He started as a great prospect with the Indians, but was traded to the Rockies as the lead prospect in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade. He was not great with Colorado, and was let go of pretty quickly and found his way to Oakland. Pomeranz was with Oakland during their playoff races, but in the middle of it, he punched a wall after a bad start, and broke his hand, and Oakland lost him for the rest of the season. Since that point though, he has been a consistently good pitcher. Pomeranz this season has an ERA of 3.59, and an xFIP of 3.91. He strikes out well more than a batter an inning, and while he walks quite a few batters, he does a good job of limiting home runs still.

Jason Hammel is going to be starting for the Royals. Hammel has been a successful pitcher throughout his major league career, but I would argue that he has been pretty disappointing for the Royals. Right now he has an ERA of 4.81, and an xFIP of 5.19. I don’t find it especially surprising, because while the Royals have an above average defense, it’s not historically great like it was for the Cubs last season. This has led to a 40 point increase in his BABIP, so many more batters are getting on base. To add onto this fact, he has started to strike out batters at a slightly lower rate. Ultimately, the Red Sox have a better offense, and starting pitcher, and are playing at home. I would prefer them in this game by quite a bit.

MLB Underdog of the day: Detroit Tigers +120

The Tigers and Astros are playing at Comerica Park on Sunday afternoon. Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers are going to be starting. There is a small possibility that this will be the last game that Verlander ever plays in a Tigers uniform (though I doubt he will get traded with his contract). Lance McCullers meanwhile has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB throughout the season.

Lance McCullers has been one of the best players in the MLB, and if his ERA was a bit lower, I think that there would be a good chance he would be a frontrunner for the Cy Young. McCullers has an ERA of 3.67, an xFIP of 2.93, and has been worth nearly 3 wins per fangraphs version of WAR. His greatest skill is to get a high volume of strikeouts, as he strikes out nearly 11 batters per nine innings, while walking slightly less than 3 batters per nine innings. Most amazingly though is that he has a groundball rate of 63% to go along with these great skills. That’s what makes the fact that he has a BABIP of .323 most surprising. Groundball pitchers traditionally have a lower BABIP than other pitchers, so I think McCullers has been a victim of bad luck throughout the season.

Justin Verlander is a tough pitcher to figure out for me. Verlander has an ERA of 4.50, and an xFIP of 4.79, both of which are pretty bad, especially for one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball. But what I think is important to recognize with Verlander is that even though his ERA and xFIP are bad, his velocity and strikeouts are still there. What’s actually killed Verlander this season has been walks, and hard contact. Verlander has been walking over 4 batters per nine innings, which is high, but his zone rating isn’t radically different than it was in the past, so I don’t think that’s too much of a concern. The batted ball data is concerning, as he has allowed 36% of batted balls to be hard hit. This is pretty unsustainable for any pitcher, but especially for a pitcher who gets so few groundballs. Regardless, I still like the Tigers, as a high upside offense, with a high upside pitcher playing at home. The Astros are certainly a better team, but the Tigers in my opinion are worth buying at this point in the season.

MLB Over/Under of the day: Seattle Mariners/New York Mets under 9

The Mariners and Mets are going to be playing in Seattle Sunday afternoon. James Paxton and Seth Lugo are going to be starting for the Mariners and Mets respectively, as both teams are in a bit of a strange situation. The Mariners are a good team, but they lack a lot of depth both in their rotation, and in the field. The Mets meanwhile have a lot of talent, but their rotation is tough to see how successful they are going to be, with such uncertainty in their health. I’m not sure that there is much to do at the deadline for either team, but if things don’t work out next year for both teams, I think both may hit the restart button.

James Paxton has been one of my favorite pitchers in the league since late last season. I think Paxton has justified my enthusiasm about him, and has been getting better since returning from injury. He has an ERA of 2.84, and an xFIP of 3.29. Statistically, he is very similar to Corey Kluber in my mind, as he strikes out batters at a very high rate, and can limit walks. His only primary problem is that he doesn’t get many groundballs, and allows a pretty high rate of hard hit balls. But as long as he manages to limit a lot of singles, Paxton will have a great start. I like the under in this game almost entirely because of how good Paxton is, and the fact that the game is going to be in a pitchers park in Seattle. I would feel good about the under in this game.

Dodgers host Giants Sunday Night
By: StatFox.com

The Giants will be hoping to find a way to beat the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Sunday night.

San Francisco is having a miserable season, as the team had World Series aspirations before the season and currently sits behind the lowly Padres in the NL West standings. The Giants do, however, take pride in beating the Dodgers, so they’ll definitely still have some energy in this Sunday Night Baseball matchup. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is the best team in Major League Baseball this season, and it’s not necessarily close either. With the way the Dodgers have played thus far, it’d almost be shocking to see anybody beat them in the postseason. There is, however, plenty of time and this team does tend to struggle in the playoffs. The starters in this Sunday night game are going to be RHP Matt Cain (3-9, 5.45 ERA, 59 K) for San Francisco and LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 4.17 ERA, 74 K) for Los Angeles. Both guys are extremely hittable, so it would not be surprising if this game was high scoring. There is, however, no denying that Ryu is the better pitcher at this point in their careers.

If the Giants are going to beat the Dodgers on Sunday then Matt Cain is going to need to find a way to shut down a dangerous Los Angeles lineup. Cain is coming off of a lousy start against the Pirates, as he allowed six runs (two earned) in four innings of work. If he were to show up with that same stuff then the Dodgers might hang double digits on him. Fortunately for San Francisco, Cain has started two games against the Dodgers this season and he is 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in those outings. He seems to love the challenge of starting against this team, and it’d be huge if he can find a way to pitch well yet again. On offense, two guys to keep an eye on for the Giants are C Buster Posey and OF Hunter Pence. They are a combined 19-for-50 with five doubles, a homer, and nine RBI against Ryu in their careers. They should be able to hit the lefty in this one as well.

The Dodgers are in a class of their own this season, but they have struggled to hit Matt Cain in two meetings with the righty. They’ll need some of their stars to find a way to get to him, and one guy that just might be able to come through here is OF Yasiel Puig. Puig has hit Cain hard in his career, as he is 6-for-19 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against him. He will be hoping to keep that up here. SS Corey Seager should also be able to spark this offense, as he is 3-for-9 with an RBI against the righty. More exposure to him should only help. As for Ryu, the Dodgers can use something close to a quality start in this game. He has allowed exactly two runs in each of his past four starts, but he has pitched less than six innings in all of those outings. It’d be big if he can get them a bit further into this one.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins (-110, 8.5)

The Reds and Marlins go to battle Sunday in Miami. The Fish have taken the first three games of the four-game series and will be looking to sweep the struggling Reds in this early afternoon start.

The Reds have lost the first six games of their current 10-game road trip and have only won 16 games on the road all season (16-35). Breaking down the matchup is always important, but any time you can fade the Reds on the road at even money you have to give it serious consideration.

Right-hander Luis Castillo gets the ball for Cincinnati and he has been decent in his seven starts at the major league level. He is, however, only 1-4 (team win/loss 2-5) in his brief career with a very forgettable ERA of 4.05. In his last three trips to the hill he is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA.

The Marlins are winners of seven of their last nine games overall and will hand the ball to Dan Straily for what could be his final start with Miami - Straily's name has been thrown around as a potential arm on the move leading up to Monday's non-waiver trade deadline. Despite struggling in his last few outings, Straily has been really good at Marlins Park this season with a 2.82 ERA and a very solid WHIP of 1.17.

When all else fails in this matchup, you can be assured that Castillo will not go deep into the game for the Reds (season high of 6.2 innings pitched). This means that he will have to turn the ball over to the Cincinnati bullpen which owns an ERA of 4.23 and leads all of Major League Baseball with 60 home runs allowed this season.

Pick: Marlins -110

New York Mets at Seattle Mariners (+103, 8.5)

The New York Mets will continue their road trip Sunday with the final game of a three-game weekend series in Seattle against the Mariners. The clubs split the first two contests with Over and Under also each grabbing one game each.

The Mets lead all of Major League Baseball in Overs this season with 60 (60-31-11), but what better antidote for Overs than facing James Paxton in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Paxton has been terrific all season with a 10-3 record and an ERA of 2.84 and at home he has been even better at 6-2 with an ERA of 2.36. Over his last five starts, Paxton has been at his best with a team win/loss of 5-0, an ERA of 1.62, and a WHIP of 0.75 - including his last start which was seven shutout innings and 10 strikeouts in an eventual 4-0 win at Safeco Field against the Boston Red Sox.

The versatile Seth Lugo will get the ball for the Mets today and he has been tossing very well for New York. Over his last three starts he owns a team win/loss of 3-0, an ERA of 3.26, a WHIP of 1.14, and an opponent's on base percentage of .288 - all against decent offensive opponents in the Padres, Cardinals, and Rockies.

Pick: Under 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 0-1-1
Season To Date: 100-89-10

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates (8-7, 4.12 ERA, $472)

Right-hander Gerrit Cole is on a nice run for the Pittsburgh Pirates right now. The Bucs have won seven of his last eight starts, including wins in his last four outings in a row. During those last four starts Cole owns an ERA of 2.52 to go along with a tidy WHIP of 1.12.

Cole and the Pirates are picking up some road chalk today in San Diego at -155.

Slumping: Bartolo Colon, Minnesota Twins (2-9, 8.00 ERA, $-111)

"Big Sexy" continues to lock down a regular appearance as our Slumping Starter. In his last appearance, Colon gave up three earned runs over only five innings of work and it was considered a strong outing for the over-the-hill starter. That says plenty about how Colon's season has been going.

Over his last four starts (two with Atlanta and two with Minnesota) Colon's ERA is 11.34 with a WHIP of 2.16. He continues to take away a major league roster spot from some kid in the minor leagues waiting for his big break.

Colon and the Braves are +180 today in Oakland against the A's.

Sunday's Top Trends

* The New York Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter. -155 today vs. Rays (Faria).
* The Chicago Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 road games. -130 today @ Brewers.
* The Cleveland Indians are 9-0 in their last nine overall. -185 today @ White Sox.
* The San Francisco Giants are 1-6 in Madison Bumgarner's last seven starts vs. Dodgers. +240 today @ Dodgers.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The only precipitation in the baseball forecast for Sunday is in Miami where afternoon thunderstorms will threaten the Miami area. The roof at Marlins Park will likely be closed today.

Today's most notable wind will be an 11 mile per hour breeze blowing in from left field at Petco Park in San Diego. The Padres are hosting the Pirates and the total is currently set at 8.5.

Ump Of The Day

Phil Cuzzi will be calling balls and strikes today in Oakland and that is bad news for Barolo Colon and the visiting Minnesota Twins. Cuzzi is near the top of our 2017 Homer Umpire Stats table at 14-7 for the season. Looking back over the last four seasons, the home team is 66-38 in games with Cuzzi behind the plate (63.5 percent).

The home team is also 17-4 in Cuzzi's last 21 games behind the dish involving the Oakland A's.

The Athletics are big -200 favorites at home today against the Twins.