MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, July 9th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Pirates @ Cubs
Taillon is 2-0, 1.04 in his last three starts; his last four starts stayed under. Pirates are 4-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3-3

Lester is 1-1, 4.13 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Cubs are 4-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-3

Pirates won four of their last five games; under is 7-0-1 in their last eight. Cubs are 5-8 in last 13 home games; three of last five Chicago games went over total.

Padres @ Phillies
Cahill is 3-0, 2.88 in his last six starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. Padres are 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-5-1

Eickhoff is 0-4, 5.84 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Phillies are 2-5 in his home starts- 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

San Diego won five of its last six games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Philly lost its last five games; under is 6-0-1 in their last seven home games. Phillies have 23 losses by one run this season.

Mets @ Cardinals
Matz is 2-1, 2.12 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Mets are 2-2 in his road stats- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2-1

Lynn is 1-3, 8.86 in his last four starts; over is 9-4 in his last 13. St Louis is 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-8-1

Mets lost four of last five games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. St Louis lost three of last five games; over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games.

Braves @ Nationals
Newcomb is 1-3, 3.90 in five starts this year (under 4-1). Atlanta’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Ross is 2-0, 2.18 in his last three starts (over 8-4). Washington is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3-1

Braves are 10-4 in last 14 road games; under is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Washington is 4-5 in its last nine games; over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Reds @ Diamondbacks
Bailey is 1-2, 12.66 in his last three starts (over 2-1). Reds’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-2

Corbin is 0-2, 3.12 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-2 in his last seven. Arizona is 6-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2

Cincinnati is 7-5 in its last 12 games; under is 8-0-1 in their last nine games. Arizona lost four of its last five games; under is 7-3-3 in their last 13.

Marlins @ Giants
Urena is 4-1, 3.44 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Miami is 4-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

Cain is 0-7, 7.26 in his last nine starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Giants are 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-11-1

Marlins won four of last five games; under is 9-5-1 in their last 15 games. Giants won seven of last 11 games; under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

American League

Astros @ Blue Jays
Fiers is 4-2, 2.81 in his last eight starts; over is 4-3-1 in his road outings. Astros are 6-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-3

Happ is 3-1, 1.97 in his last five starts (under 4-1)— Toronto is 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Houston is 10-3 in its last 13 road games; over is 12-3 in their last 15 games. Toronto won four of its last five games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Tigers @ Indians
Fulmer is 2-1, 2.66 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Detroit is 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-1

Kluber is 2-1, 1.13 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Indians are 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7

Detroit lost five of last seven games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cleveland won its last three games; under is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Red Sox @ Rays
Price is 2-0, 2.08 in his last two starts (under 4-3-1). Boston is 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-3

Archer is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts (over 11-7). Rays are 6-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-3-5

Boston won seven of its last ten games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Rays are 10-5 in last 15 home games; over is 12-2 in their last 14 home games.

Angels @ Rangers
Ramirez is 1-3, 7.32 in his last four starts (under 10-6). Angels are 5-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-4

Darvish is 0-3, 6.05 in his last four starts; under is 10-1-1 in his last 12. Texas lost his last four home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-5

Angels lost five of last six games, under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games. Texas won its last three games; over is 16-4-2 in their last 22 home games.

Orioles @ Twins
Jimenez is 1-2, 8.22 in his last three starts; over is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Baltimore is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

Gibson is 1-2, 4.30 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Minnesota is 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1

Baltimore lost seven of last nine games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Minnesota won six of last nine home games; under is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.

A’s @ Mariners
Gossett is 1-3, 7.27 in five starts this season (over 3-2). Oakland’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Hernandez is 1-2, 5.85 in his last four starts; over is 4-0-1 in his last five. Seattle is 3-2 in his home starts- 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-4

Oakland won four of its last five games; over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games. Seattle lost nine of its last 12 games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 home games.

Interleague

Milwaukee @ New York
Nelson is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Brewers are 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-9-1

Tanaka is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. New York is 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6-2

Milwaukee won seven of last nine games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 games. New York lost five of last seven games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.

White Sox @ Rockies
Rodon is 1-1, 3.97 in two starts this year (over 1-0-1). Chicago’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Freeland is 0-3, 7.41 in his last three starts; under is 4-0 in his last four. Colorado is 4-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-7-1

White Sox lost six of last nine road games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games. Colorado is 5-12 in its last 17 games; under is 9-1-1 in last 11 Colorado games.

Royals @ Dodgers
Duffy is 3-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Royals are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-6-2

Kershaw is 6-0, 2.23 in his last six starts over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 9-1 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 13-2-3

Kansas City won six of last nine games; over is 12-4-2 in their last 18 road games. Los Angeles is 17-1 in last 18 home games; under is 9-4-2 in their last 15 games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Pitt-Chi: Taillon 6-5; Lester 10-8
SD-Phil: Cahill 5-3; Eickhoff 2-12
Atl-Wsh: Newcomb 2-3; Ross 8-3
NY-StL: Matz 2-3; Lynn 7-10
Cin-Az: Bailey 1-2; Corbin 8-9
Mia-SF: Urena 8-4; Cain 7-10

American League
Hst-Tor: Peacock 6-2; Happ 4-6
Det-Clev: Fulmer 9-7; Kluber 8-5
Bos-TB: Price 5-3; Archer 10-8
LA-Tex: Ramirez 9-7; Darvish 8-10 (0-4 last 4)
Balt-Min: Jimenez 7-5; Gibson 8-7
A’s-Sea: Gossett 2-3; Hernandez 3-5

Interleague
Mil-NY; Nelson 9-8; Tanaka 9-8 (4-1 last 5)
Chi-Colo: Rodon 1-1; Freeland 10-7 (0-3 last 3)
KC-LA: Duffy 6-6; Kershaw 16-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Pitt-Chi: Taillon 2-11; Lester 8-18 (4 of last 5)
SD-Phil: Cahill 2-8; Eickhoff 3-14
Atl-Wsh: Newcomb 1-4; Ross 6-11
NY-StL: Matz 0-5; Lynn 6-17
Cin-Az: Bailey 3-3; Corbin 10-17
Mia-SF: Urena 2-12; Cain 6-17

American League
Hst-Tor: Peacock 1-8; Happ 2-10
Det-Clev: Fulmer 5-16; Kluber 3-13
Bos-TB: Price 3-8; Archer 4-18
LA-Tex: Ramirez 9-16 (0 of last 5); Darvish 4-18
Balt-Min: Jimenez 4-12; Gibson 3-15
A’s-Sea: Gossett 0-5; Hernandez 5-8

Interleague
Mil-NY; Nelson 3-17; Tanaka 8-17
Chi-Colo: Rodon 1-2; Freeland 5-17
KC-LA: Duffy 2-12; Kershaw 4-18

Umpires

National League
Pitt-Chi: Over is 7-3 in last ten Johnson games.
SD-Phil: Four of last five Guccione games went over.
Atl-Wsh: Under is 7-3 in last ten Dreckman games.
NY-StL: Underdogs are 8-8 ($130) Nelson games this year.
Cin-Az: Under is 6-2 in last eight O’Nora games.
Mia-SF: Four of last five Hallion games stayed under.

American League
Hst-Tor: Over is 5-0-1 in last six Torres games.
Det-Clev: Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Blakney games.
Bos-TB: Favorites won eight of last nine Conroy games.
LA-Tex: Underdogs are 7-4 in last 11 Lentz games.
Balt-Min: Three of last four LBarrett games stayed under.
A’s-Sea: Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Culbreth games.

Interleague

Mil-NY: Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Vanover games.
Chi-Colo: Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Gibson games.
KC-LA: Three of last four Danley games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 45-32 AL, favorites -$1,093
AL @ NL– 47-44 NL, favorites -$390
Total: 88-77 AL, favorites -$1,483

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 44-36-2
AL @ NL: Over 48-37-3
Total: Over 92-73-5

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (5-0 past five games, 24-4 past 28 overall)

The Dodgers continue to be the class of the major leagues with several pitching and hitting studs dotting the roster. Clayton Kershaw, was named to the All-Star squad, but he will pitch Sunday agaisnt the Royals. The Dodgers have won five in a row, outscoring the opposition 19-12. Four of the victories have been by one run, including Saturday's extra-innings victory. The Dodgers are heavy chalk to top Danny Duffy and the Royals in Sunday's afternoon finale, listed at -300 or higher at most shops. L.A. is just 1-3 on the run line as a favorite over their past four wins.

Coldest team: Phillies (0-5 past five games, 7-23 past 30 overall)

The Phillies won't mind hitting the All-Star break, clearing their minds after a disappointing first half. Philadelphia enters Sunday's game 30 games under .500, including 15-25 at Citizens Bank Ball Park. They have a minus-98 run differential, ranking 29th in the majors. Philadelphia is also a dismal 3-13 over their past 16 against teams with a winning overall record. They're also 2-10 over the past 12 outings at home, and 1-8 over the past nine against National League West foes. It's no surprise the Padres are road favorites (-110) to complete the three-game sweep.

Hottest pitcher: Corey Kluber, Indians (7-3, 2.85 ERA)

Kluber, named the American League Pitcher of the Month of June, enters Sunday's series finale against the Tigers fifth in the majors in ERA at 2.85. The Klubot picked up where he left off in June, posting eight strong innings with just one run allowed in a 1-0 loss against San Diego on July 4. He also has an impressive 115 strikeouts with just 21 walks across 88 1/3 innings with a sparkling 0.97 WHIP over 13 starts. He has seven straight quality starts since May 2 in Detroit, when Kluber left due to tightness in his back. That injury caused him to spend a month on the disabled list. However, he also allowed six runs and eight hits over 6 1/3 innings in a win April 15 at Progressive Field in the first meeting with the Tigers. That makes him 1-1 with a 10.61 ERA in two outings against the Tigers this season.

Coldest pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez, Orioles (3-4, 6.64 ERA)

Jimenez has a terrible 6.64 ERA across 17 outings (12 starts) this season, as the opposition is hitting .261 against him with a subpar 1.50 WHIP. He has been slightly better on the road than at home, going 2-4 with a 6.31 ERA across seven starts and four relief appearances. In his first outing against the Twins back on May 22, U allowed six earned runs and a season-high nine hits across just four innings in a no-decision, although he is 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts and one relief appearance against the Twins over his career. He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson, who beat the O's earlier this season. He is 4-2 with a 3.91 ERA in eight starts since then, too.

Biggest UNDER run: Phillies (6-0-1 past seven overall)

The 'under' is an impressive 6-0-1 over the past seven for Philadelphia, and 11-3-2 over the past 16 outings overall. In addition, the under is 8-1-2 in Philadelphia's past 11 games in their home park. That includes each of the first two outings in this series against the Padres, with Philly mustering just four runs while the Padres have scored just six. The under is a tough sell with Jerad Eickhoff (0-7, 4.93 ERA) on the hill. He is making his first start since June 17 after spending the past few weeks on the DL due to a back ailment. He went 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in a pair of outings against the Padres last season, yielding just four runs and nine hits with 14 strikeouts across 13 innings.

Biggest OVER run: Astros (7-0-1 past eight overall)

The Astros have been a popular 'over' bet lately, cashing in seven in a row until Saturday's push. Houston's offense has been the reason, scoring 32 more runs than any other club in baseball this season. Houston has an impressive plus-144 run differential, and they're the only team in the majors with more than 500 runs, 508 to be exact. That's good for an average of 5.8 runs per game while allowing 4.1 runs per outing. That means Houston is not just a temporary 'over' play, but a team that has been popular at the betting window all season long.

Matchup to watch: Giants vs. Marlins

The Marlins saw Chris O'Grady win his first major league start on Saturday, as closer A.J. Ramos held on for the save despite a shaky ninth inning. Now, it's Jose Urena looking to close things out before the All-Star host heads back to South Florida. The Giants turn to Johnny Cueto, scratching Matt Cain. Manager Bruce Bochy didn't want Cueto, who missed his start earlier this week due to an ear infection, to have to wait until after the All-Star break before seeing his next action. Cueto is a slight upgrade over Cain, although neither has exactly been lighting the world afire this season.

Betcha didn’t know: Last season Cueto posted an 18-5 record with a 2.79 ERA, winning three starts starts April 5-16, five straight starts May 12-June 3, back-to-back outings June 15-21, two in a row July 1-6 and four in a row to close out the season Sept. 10-29. This season has been a different story, as Cueto is a game under .500 and he hasn't won consecutive starts since winning his first three outings back from April 4-14. He allowed three earned runs and seven hits over five innings in a win at Pittsburgh on June 30 in his most recent assignment. The Giants are just 3-6 over his past nine starts after going 23-9 in his 32 regular-season outings in 2016.

Biggest public favorite: Dodgers (-310) vs. Royals

Biggest public underdog: Giants (+115) vs. Marlins

Biggest line move: Mariners (-140 to -165) vs. Athletics

Tigers, Indians clash
By: StatFox.com

Two of the best pitchers in the American League will be dueling on Sunday Night Baseball, as Michael Fulmer and the Tigers face Corey Kluber and the Indians.

Both the Tigers and the Indians have seriously underperformed this season, but this is the last game before the All-Star break. Both teams will have a fresh start in the second half of the year, and it’s not too late for either of them to really turn things around. The Tigers will need to claw their way back into the Wild Card race, but the Indians are not in that bad of a situation. They are currently a few games above .500 and are fighting for first place in the AL Central with both the Kansas City Royals and the Minnesota Twins. They did, however, make it to the World Series last season, and they probably expected to have one of the better records in the American League at this point. Either way, this is the last game before the All-Star Game for either of these teams. They’ll both want to enter the break on a positive note, which means that both RHP Michael Fulmer (8-6, 3.20 ERA, 83 K) and RHP Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.85 ERA, 115 K) will be counted on to pitch very well for their respective teams. Both guys have incredible stuff, and they can both be unhittable when they’re on their games.

The Tigers will be hoping to earn a big victory before the break, but they’ll need Michael Fulmer to be at his absolute best in this one. The righty is coming off of a good performance against the Giants, as he pitched eight innings of three-run ball on Jul. 4. Fulmer struck out five batters in that game, but he did allow two homers. He’s going to need to do his best to avoid mistakes in this one. The Indians have a much more dangerous lineup than the Giants, so if he is hanging pitches then Cleveland will definitely make him pay. Offensively, expect 1B Miguel Cabrera to make a big difference in this game. Cabrera is off to one of the slowest starts of his career, but he has really hit Corey Kluber hard in the past. Cabrera is 22-for-52 with six homers and 12 RBI against the Cleveland ace. It’d be huge for the Tigers if Miggy can come through at the plate in this one.

The Indians took a while to start playing well, but they are now finally competing for the top spot in their division. They’ll now look to win the last game before the All-Star break, and they should be able to get hot in the second half of the season. The Indians certainly have the right starter on the mound in this one. Corey Kluber will be on the mound, and he has struck out at least 10 batters in each of his past five starts. He has also allowed just two earned runs total over his past four starts. Kluber did, however, allow five earned runs in just three innings of work against Detroit on May 2. He’ll be hoping that his recent form can carry over, and that he does not struggle the way he did there. Offensively, both SS Francisco Lindor and 2B Jason Kipnis will try to spark the Indians in this game. The two of them are a combined 6-for-18 with two doubles and an RBI against Fulmer in their careers. It’d be big for Cleveland if they can find ways to get on base in this one.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (-105, 9.5)

The mighty Houston Astros have dropped two out of the first three games of this four-game series in Toronto heading into the All-Star break. Despite their two losses they still own a stellar 32-11 record on the road in 2017 - by far the best road record in baseball.

Brad Peacock will get the start for the Astros. He is having a great season with a 6-1 record and an overall ERA of 2.91. His ERA is slightly higher at 3.18 on the road in four starts away from Tropicana Field and in three afternoon starts his ERA is 3.98 with a rather alarming 13 walks. Someone isn't exactly an early riser.

J.A. Happ climbs the bump for the Blue Jays at home today and he has struggled at Rogers Centre with a 4.15 ERA in his five starts "North of the Border" this season. Happ has been pitching really well lately for the Jays, but his best results have been coming on the road against mediocre teams. Today is at home against a very good team.

The Astros LOVE to hit in games started by Peacock, averaging an astonishing 10.75 runs per game in his road starts this season and the average combined total runs for both teams in those games is 14.50.

Houston has yet to play an Under since the calendar turned to July and Over is 7-0-1 in their last eight games overall. The Jays have been a little bit more inconsistent when it comes to cashing Overs, but the Over is 3-0-1 in their last four overall and 3-0-1 in their last four games against the 'Stros. It looks like Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson are heating up for Toronto (just in time to cool off during the break) and when those two are rolling the Jays still have one of the most dangerous batting lineups in all of baseball.

Pick: Over 9.5

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (-210, 8 )

The Cleveland Indians send their ace, Corey Kluber, to the mound Sunday night in an attempt to close out the first half of the season with a very uplifting sweep over a division rival. The Tribe has dominated the Detroit Tigers all weekend, and for most of the season for that matter, winning the first two games of this weekend series by an average of 6.5 runs per game.

Kluber has been dynamic for most 2017, but especially over his last four starts. In his last four trips to the hill his ERA is a minuscule 0.56 and his WHIP is perhaps more impressive at 0.5625. He's only allowed one home run since the beginning of June (seven starts) so he appears to have everything figured out at the moment. He has also struck out 10 or more opposing hitters in five straight appearances.

Dating back to the beginning of the 2016 season, the Indians have won five of Kluber's six starts against the Tigers with an average margin of victory of 6.0 in those five wins.

The Tigers will run their young stud Michael Fulmer out to the hill to close out the first half. Much like the Tigers' season overall, Fulmer has been inconsistent in 2017. Don't get us wrong, any team in baseball would love to have him as a part of their rotation, but life as a Detroit Tiger can sometimes be rough as a starting pitcher. Despite a solid 2.16 ERA on the road this season, the Tigers have only won three of his seven starts away from Comerica Park.

In four career starts against the Indians, Fulmer owns a team win/loss of 2-2 (1-2 on the road), an ERA of 6.98, and a WHIP of 1.9655. Not great numbers and they speak to Fulmer having not quite put everything together.

When digging through past results we uncovered a very interesting statistical fact. Since May 23 the Cleveland Indians have won 23 baseball games (23-19) and during that span each and every one of their wins has covered -1.5. They have not posted a one-run victory since an 8-7 win in Cincinnati against the Reds on May 23. When they win, they win convincingly.

Pick: Indians -1.5 (+100)

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 85-75-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (13-2, 2.19 ERA, $1160)

Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw is pretty good. He owns a team win/loss record of 16-2 this season and he leads all major league starters in Starter Money at $1160.

Has his recent form been good? Of course. Over his last three outings he owns an ERA of 0.00 with a WHIP of 0.70 and the Dodgers have won his last 12 starts overall.

Kershaw and the Dodgers are big chalk at home today, as usual, against the visiting Kansas City Royals at -300.

Slumping: Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies (8-7, 4.09, $361)

Rockies' rookie left-hander Kyle Freeland got off to a tremendous start to his major league career but he has really cooled off as the weather has warmed up. In Freeland's last three starts he is 0-3 with a 7.27 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. He simply is not missing bats with only six strikeouts to go along with six walks during those last 17.1 innings of work.

Freeland and the Rox are -120 favorites at home today against the Chicago White Sox. The moneyline opened at -150 and has been dropping all day.

Sunday's Top Trends:

* Over is 12-2 in the Tampa Bay Rays' last 14 home games. Red Sox/Rays Total: 7.5.
* The Atlanta Braves are 5-21 in the last 26 meetings with the Nationals in Washington. +160 today @ Nats.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 44-9 in Clayton Kershaw's last 53 starts. -300 today vs. Royals.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 4-17 in their last 21 vs. National League West. +150 today @ Diamondbacks.

Weather To Keep An Eye On:

Not too much precipitation to worry about in the weather forecast today. There are slight chances of thunderstorms developing in Minneapolis for this afternoon's game between the Twins and the Baltimore Orioles and also in Arlington where the Rangers will host the Los Angeles Angels.

At Wrigley Field in Chicago there will be an 8-10 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field this afternoon. The Cubs are taking on the Pirates and the total is set at 9.

Ump Of The Day:

Tom Hallion will be calling balls and strikes today in San Francisco for this afternoon's game between the Giants and the visiting Miami Marlins. Hallion is the No. 5 Over umpire in Major League Baseball thus far in 2017 at 12-5.

He owns a very low strike percentage of 62.78. Combine that with the juiced balls and that fully explains his current Over trend.

The total today in San Francisco is currently set at 9.