MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, June 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Rockies @ Cubs
Senzatela is 5-1, 4.35 in his last seven starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Colorado is 3-2 in his road starts.
Arrieta is 2-1, 3.00 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. Cubs won his last three home starts.
Colorado won its last seven games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Cubs lost their last four games; under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.
Marlins @ Pirates
Former Pirate Locke is 0-1, 4.35 in two starts this year (over 1-1).
Nova is 1-1, 4.22 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Pirates are 3-2 in his home starts.
Marlins won 10 of last 14 games; over is 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Pirates are 3-7 in last ten games. Seven of their last nine games went over.
Mets @ Braves
Lugo is making his first ’17 start; he is 5-2, 2.67 in 17 MLB games (8 starts). He is 1-1, 2.77 in two AA rehab starts this year.
Garcia is 1-1, 1.69 in his last three starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Atlanta is 1-2 in his home starts.
Mets won three of last four games; over is 15-4–1 in their last 20 road games. Atlanta is 3-6 in its last nine home games; over is 7-3 in their last ten home games.
Phillies @ Cardinals
Nola is 1-3, 4.13 in his last four starts (under 3-1); Phillies are 2-3 in his road starts.
Wainwright gave up nine runs in 3.2 IP in his last start, after going 4-0, 0.34 in the four starts before that; over is 7-3 in his last ten starts. Cardinals are 4-2 in his home starts.
Phillies are 3-13 in last 16 road games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. St Louis lost seven of its last nine games; under is 5-1 in their last six home games.
Brewers @ Diamondbacks
Anderson is 3-0, 0.00 (21.2 IP) in his last three starts (under 3-0). Milwaukee is 4-2 in his road outings.
Ray is 4-0, 0.30 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Arizona split his six home starts.
Milwaukee won four of last six games; under is 3-1 in their last four road games. Arizona is 10-1 in its last 11 home games; over is 5-1 in its last six.
Reds @ Dodgers
Adleman is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts (over 5-4). Reds are 1-3 in his road starts.
Ryu is 1-1, 3.44 in his last three starts (under 6-2-1). Dodgers split his four home starts.
Reds won four of their last six games; they’ve lost eight games in a row in LA- over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Dodgers won their last three games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
American League
White Sox @ Indians
Quintana is 0-2, 11.68 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Chicago split his six road starts.
Carrasco is 1-1, 6.75 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Indians are 3-2 in his home starts.
White Sox lost eight of last ten games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Cleveland lost five of last seven games; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 home games.
Tigers @ Red Sox
Norris is 0-2, 5.48 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Detroit is 4-2 in his road starts.
Pomeranz is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Boston is 5-1 in his home starts.
Tigers lost four of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Boston won seven of last eight home games; five of last six games at Fenway Park stayed under the total.
A’s @ Rays
Hahn is 1-2, 4.95 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Oakland is 0-5 in his road starts, scoring total of six runs in five games.
Archer is 1-3, 4.91 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Rays are 4-3 in his home starts.
A’s lost seven of last nine road games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Tampa Bay won six of last eight home games; over is 9-3 in Rays’ last 12 games.
Baltimore @ New York
Gausman is 1-1, 4.34 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Orioles lost his last five road starts.
Green is 2-4, 3.90 in 19 MLB games (8 starts); this would be his first ’17 start. This would be MLB debut for German, who is 2-1, 3.76 in four AAA games (3 starts).
Orioles lost their last eight road games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. New York won six of last seven home games; their last three games went over.
Angels @ Astros
Chavez is 1-1, 4.41 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Angels are 2-4 in his road starts.
Paulino is 1-0, 3.72 in two starts (9.2 IP) this year (over 1-1).
Angels are 4-6 in last ten road games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Houston is 13-3 in its last 16 games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.
Blue Jays @ Mariners
Happ is 0-4, 5.33 in five starts this season (over 2-2-1).
Paxton is 3-0, 2.01 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Seattle is 4-1 in home starts.
Toronto is 12-6 in its last 18 games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Seattle won six of its last eight games; under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Interleague
Rangers @ Nationals
Bibens-Dirks allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (84 PT) in his first ’17 start, an extra inning loss to Tampa Bay.
Scherzer is 3-0, 1.09 in his last three starts; his last four stayed under. Washington is 3-2 in his home starts.
Texas won three of last four games; their last four road games stayed under. Washington won eight of last 12 games, but lost last two; Nationals’ last eight home games stayed under.
Royals @ Padres
Junis is 0-0, 9.72 in two starts (8.1 IP) this season (over 2-0).
Lamet gave up nine runs in three IP in his last start, after going 2-0, 2.70 in his first two home starts. Over is 1-1-1 in his starts.
Royals is 4-3 in its last seven road games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. San Diego lost six of its last seven games; seven of their last eight games went over.
Twins @ Giants
Turley (distant relative of Bob Turley) is making his MLB debut here. He is 1-2, 3.49 in seven AAA games (5 starts) this season.
Cain is 0-4, 6.75 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Giants split his six home starts.
Twins are 18-5 in their last 23 road games; over is 7-5-1 in their last 13 games. Giants are 3-9 in their last 12 games; under is 16-6-2 in their last 24 home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Col-Chi: Senzatela 9-3; Arrieta 6-6
Mia-Pitt: Locke 0-2; Nova 6-6
NY-Atl: Lugo 0-0; Garcia 5-6
Phil-StL: Nola 3-4; Wainwright 7-5
Mil-Az: Anderson 7-5; Ray 8-4
Cin-LA: Adleman 5-4; Ryu 2-7
American League
Chi-Clev: Quintana 5-7; Carrasco 8-3
Det-Bos: Norris 5-6; Pomeranz 7-4
A’s-TB: Hahn 3-6; Archer 7-6
Balt-NY: Gausman 7-6; (Green or German) 0-0
LA-Hst: Chavez 6-6; Paulino 2-0
Tor-Sea: Happ 1-4; Paxton 5-3
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Bibens-Dirks 0-1; Scherzer 8-4
KC-SD: Junis 2-0; Lamet 2-1
Minn-SF: Turily 0-0; Cain 5-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Col-Chi: Senzatela 4-12; Arrieta 4-12
Mia-Pitt: Locke 0-2; Nova 3-12
NY-Atl: Lugo 0-0; Garcia 2-11
Phil-StL: Nola 3-7; Wainwright 2-12
Mil-Az: Anderson 2-12; Ray 4-12
Cin-LA: Adleman 4-9; Ryu 5-9
American League
Chi-Clev: Quintana 3-12; Carrasco 2-11
Det-Bos: Norris 2-11; Pomeranz 4-11
A’s-TB: Hahn 4-9; Archer 4-13
Balt-NY: Gausman 3-13; (Green or German) 0-0
LA-Hst: Chavez 1-12; Paulino 0-2
Tor-Sea: Happ 2-5; Paxton 0-8
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Bibens-Dirks 0-1; Scherzer 3-12
KC-SD: Junis 0-2; Lamet 1-3
Minn-SF: Turily 0-0; Cain 5-12
Umpires
National League
Col-Chi: Three of last four Hudson games went over.
Mia-Pitt: Over is 7-2-2 in Wolf games this season.
NY-Atl: Underdogs are 4-4 (+$107) in Carapazza games this year.
Phil-StL: Favorites won eight of last nine Woodring games.
Mil-Az: Five of last six Iassogna games went over.
Cin-LA: Home side won seven of last eight Hoberg games.
American League
Chi-Clev: Four of last five Everitt games went over.
Det-Bos: Nine of last ten Marquez games went over.
A’s-TB: Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Blaser games.
Balt-NY: Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Porter games.
LA-Hst: Under is 11-3 in last fourteen DeJesus games.
Tor-Sea: Last five Fagan games went over total.
Interleague
Tex-Wsh: Under is 7-2-1 in Tichenor games this season.
KC-SD: Three of last four Torres games stayed under.
Minn-SF: Over is 9-3 in Hernandez games this season.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 33-16 AL, favorites -$49
AL @ NL– 33-30 AL, favorites -$118
Total: 66-46 AL, favorites -$167
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 29-24-1
AL @ NL: Over 35-24-1
Total: Over 64-48-2
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Yankees (4-0 past four games)
The Yankees rolled up 16 runs in Saturday's beatdown of the Orioles, and they have scored eight or more runs in each of the past four outings. New York is now tied for the top spot in the American League with a plus-103 run differential. The Yankees have also won four straight inside the division and five of their past six against right-handed starters. In addition, the Bronx is suddenly becoming a formidable place to play again, as the Bombers are 38-18 ove their past 56 at home. New York is also 36-16 over their past 52 home games vs. RHP. On the flip side, the Orioles are 1-7 in their past eight in the third game of a series, they're 0-4 in their past four vs. AL East foes, 0-5 in their past five against teams with a winning overall mark and 9-27 in Kevin Gausman's past 36 road starts.
Coldest team Phillies (0-4 past four games, 10-30 past 40 overall)
The Phillies have followed up a four-game winning streak with a dismal four-game slide, averaging just 1.0 run per game while allowing 6.8 runs per outing. The previously ice-cold Cardinals have found the elixir to cure their ills, and that has been a trip to Philadelphia. Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez have pitched well for the Cards, and now the Phils will have to deal with Adam Wainwright in the finale. The Phils are 1-7 in their past eight tries in Game 3 of a series, while going just 14-37 over their past 51 home games. Aaron Nola has been no solution, either, going 3-7 over his past 10 road outings and 4-11 in his past 15 overall.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (7-3, 2.35 ERA)
Scherzer has been impressive this season, checking in fifth in the majors in ERA while holding the opposition to a .180 batting average with a 0.88 WHIP. He has also struck out 114 batters, including 14 punchouts in his most recent outing at L.A. Dodgers on June 6. He has recorded 11 or more strikeouts in each of his past three starts while posting a 3-0 record and 0.73 ERA over the span. He faces an ultra-favorable matchup against the inexperienced Austin Bibens-Dirkx. The Rangers have actually won 10 of their past 11 against National League East foes, but they're just 5-11 over their past 16 tries vs. RHP.
Coldest pitcher: Jesse Chavez, Angels (5-6, 4.56 ERA)
Chavez has gotten himself into trouble with the long ball, serving up 15 homers over 71 innings while allowing 36 earned runs and 71 hits. A hit per inning is not a key to success. The Angels have posted a 4-1 mark in Chavez's past five outings, although they're 0-5 in his past five assignments against divisional foes. The Halos are also just 3-7 in their past 10 tries against divisional foes. The Angels haven't had a lot of success in recent seasons against the Astros, posting an 8-20 mark in their past 28 trips to Minute Maid and 2-5 in the past seven meetings overall.
Biggest UNDER run: Cubs (12-4 past 16 games overall)
The Cubs have had a power outage on offense, managing a total of five runs over their pst three outings. Naturally, the 'under has followed in each of those outings. It has been a difficult follow-up to Chicago's storybook World Series season last year, with pitching and hitting struggles for most of the season to date. The more consistent factor to bet on for Chicago has been the 'under'. The total has gone under in 12 of the past 16 games overall, while going 33-15-3 in their past 51 against NL West foes. Surprisingly, the 'over' is 8-3 over Jake Arrieta's past 11 assignments.
Biggest OVER run: Astros (7-3-3 past 13 games overall)
The 'over' has been on fire for Houston lately, going 7-3-3 in the past 13 games overall. More imporessively, the 'over' is a whopping 25-5-3 in the past 33 during the third game of a series. The over has also connected for a 5-2-3 record over their past 10 against right-handed starting pitching while going 16-3-2 over their past 21 performances on a Sunday. In this series, the 'under' is 6-1 in the past seven in Houston, and 9-3-1 in the past 13 meetings between these division rivals.
Matchup to watch: Red Sox vs. Tigers
The Red Sox look to cap off a three-game series sweep against the Tigers on Sunday Night Baseball. Boston got the best of Justin Verlander in Saturday's game, as the Red Sox hit him hard, as well as the Detroit bullpen, providing more than enough support for Chris Sale. Drew Pomeranz is on the bump on Sunday. He has posted a 2-3 record with a 4.24 ERA over seven career appearances against the Tigers. He'll be facing a Detroit team which has recorded just 13 wins in 33 tries on the road so far this season, however.
Betcha didn’t know: The Royals hit five home runs in a game on Saturday for the first time since accomplishing the feat back in 2003. Kansas City will look to keep the offense rolling against San Diego's top pitching prospect, Dinelson Lamet, who suffered his first setback last time out. He allowed nine runs - seven earned - over just three innings last time out on Tuesday. He'll be looking to cool off Salvador Perez, who reached 100 homers for his career on Saturday. The Royals backstop is also hitting .450 (9-for-20) during his hot five-game hitting streak. If the Royals wish to be success then Jake Junis will have to look more like a major league starter. He has issued 10 free passes over just 10 1/3 innings.
Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-250) vs. Rangers
Biggest public underdog: Reds (+180) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Phillies (+155 to +135) at Cardinals
Red Sox host Tigers
By: StatFox.com
Both the Tigers and Red Sox will be looking to earn a victory on the national stage when the teams meet in Boston for Sunday Night Baseball.
The Tigers are in an extremely winnable division, as they are currently fighting with the Twins and Indians for the top spot in the AL Central. None of those teams really have any significant separation from one another, so Detroit has to feel good about its chances of making the postseason. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are in the most competitive division in baseball. The AL East is absolutely loaded this year, and Boston can’t afford to struggle mightily for any stretch the rest of the way. The worst thing the Sox can do is dig a hole for themselves, but they are definitely aware of that. The starters in this Sunday night matchup are going to be LHP Daniel Norris (2-4, 4.48 ERA, 55 K) for Detroit and LHP Drew Pomeranz (6-3, 4.02 ERA, 71 K) for Boston. Both guys are very inconsistent, so this game can really go either way. They are both capable of pitching absolute gems, but they also can get lit up on any given night. It’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds, but it’s worth noting that both guys have been cruising lately.
After allowing five earned runs in 5.2 innings of work against Texas on May 19, Daniel Norris has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three straight starts for Detroit. That is really all the Tigers are asking of the lefty, as they know they can win any game that their starter turns in a quality start. Detroit is super talented offensively, so run support is not usually an issue. It just is not fair of Norris to ask his team to score six runs, which is what they would have needed to do in his lousy performance against Texas in May. Offensively, OF J.D. Martinez is somebody that could make a splash in Sunday’s game. Martinez is 3-for-4 with a double and an RBI against Pomeranz in his career. He also happens to be hitting really well lately. SS Jose Iglesias will also be looking forward to this game. He is not much of a power hitter, but he has homered off of Pomeranz in his career. That will give him confidence at the plate on Sunday.
The Red Sox gave up one of their top prospects to get Drew Pomeranz last year, and that move is finally paying dividends this season. Pomeranz has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five straight appearances for Boston. He was excellent in his last trip to the mound, allowing one earned run in 5.0 innings of work against the Yankees. Pomeranz struck out seven batters in that game, and he’ll look to keep missing bats moving forward. It’d be huge if he can give the Sox six or seven good innings in this one. Offensively, Boston will be counting on guys like SS Xander Bogaerts and 1B Hanley Ramirez in this game. The two of them are a combined 5-for-9 with two doubles and two RBI against Norris in their careers. They should be able to step it up and produce against him once again on Sunday.
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double Play-Picks
Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 8.5)
Two of the hottest pitchers in baseball go head-to-head at Chase Field in Phoenix this afternoon when Chase Anderson and the Brewers take on Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks.
We're going with the pick that gives us the best chance to cash a ticket today in this game.
Over his last three starts, Anderson owns an ERA of 0.00 in 21.2 innings pitched. He has been tremendous with only 10 hits allowed to go along with 22 strikeouts and only five walks (WHIP 0.69). The Under has cashed in those last three outings.
It's no secret that Robbie Ray has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last few weeks. In his last four trips to the hill, Ray has allowed only one earned run (0.30 ERA), 11 hits, and five walks to go allow with 36 strikeouts (0.527 WHIP). Five of his six starts at home this season have cashed for Under bettors.
Very rarely do these collisions of stellar pitching arms pan out into a pitcher's duel. However, in our opinion, the current total of 8.5 is too high (it actually opened at 9.5 and was bet down to the current number).
Both guys may not be in for a gem on the mound today, but one of them will spin a beauty and put the pressure on their offense to get above the posted number. This sets up like a 4-1 or 5-1 game this afternoon.
Pick: Under 8.5
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-155, 11)
Sunday Night Baseball tonight will feature the struggling Detroit Tigers concluding their weekend series at Fenway Park in Boston against the Red Sox. The Sox won the first two games of the series and will be looking to convert the three-game sweep Sunday night.
The Tigers will send lefty Daniel Norris to the mound. Norris has been average this season with a team win/loss record of 5-6 and an ERA of 4.48. The dangerous number might be his opponent's on base percentage which currently sits at .356 for the 2017 season. Simply too many walks with 27 BBs over 11 starts this season (2.45 per start). Putting unnecessary runners on base at Fenway Park, especially as a lefty, can be a very dangerous game.
The Red Sox will counter with Drew Pomeranz who has recently turned into the starting pitcher they hoped they were acquiring from the San Diego Padres at last year's trade deadline. Over his last three starts, Pomeranz is 3-0 with an ERA of 2.00 and a very tidy 26 strikeouts to go along with only three walks. He's also been great at home in 2017 with a team win/loss record of 5-1 at Fenway.
Note: The Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starters.
Pick: Red Sox -155
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 59-48-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (7-3, 2.35 ERA, $88)
Over his last three starts, Max Scherzer has looked more like the dominant power-pitcher that we're used to seeing on the mound for the Nationals.
"Mad Max" is 3-0 with a 0.73 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP in those last three outings. The most eye-popping numbers are his strikeouts with 38 Ks over his last 24.2 innings pitched - and only four walks.
Scherzer and the Nats, of course, are big favorites at -270 at home against the Texas Rangers this afternoon.
Slumping: J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays (0-4, 5.33 ERA, $-360)
J.A. Happ was one of the big surprises of the 2016 season going 20-4 for the Toronto Blue Jays and looking fully in command in almost every one of his starts last season - 2017 has been a little bit of a different story for Happ.
He is 0-4 with an ERA of 5.33 and he missed more than a month with some left elbow inflammation. His two starts since returning from the D.L. haven't really been any better for him - 6.75 ERA, six walks and only 7 strikeouts, and four home runs allowed.
Happ is starting today in Seattle (which is always like a home game for the Blue Jays) and the Mariners are -145 favorites.
Sunday's Top Trends
* The Baltimore Orioles are 0-9 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. +150 today @ Yankees.
* Over is 14-1 in Carlos Carrasco's last 15 starts with 7 or more days of rest. White Sox/Indians Total: 8.5.
* Over is 16-3-2 in the Houston Astros' last 21 Sunday games. Angels/Astros Total: 9.5.
* Over is 11-1 in Adam Wainwright's last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Phillies/Cards Total: 9.
* The Chicago Cubs are 0-9 in their last nine vs. the National League West. -180 today vs. Rockies.
* The Under is 7-0-1 in the Washington Nationals last 8 home games. Nats/Rangers Total: 8.5.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is no precipitation in the forecast for Sunday across Major League Baseball - wind, however, will be a different story.
Orioles at Yankees (Total: 10.5) - 10-15 mile per hour wind blowing straight OUT to center field.
White Sox at Indians (Total: 8.5) - 15 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right-center field.
Marlins at Pirates (Total: 9) - 12-13 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left field.
Phillies at Cardinals (Total: 9) - 15-17 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left field.
Rockies at Cubs (Total: 11.5) - 16-18 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left-center field.
Rangers at Nationals (Total: 8.5) - 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to center field.
Twins at Giants (Total: 8.5) - 23-25 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to center field.
Royals at Padres (Total: 8.5) - 11-13 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right-center field.
Tigers at Red Sox (Total: 11) - 10-13 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to center field.
Ump Of The Day
Alfonso Marquez: Marquez will be calling balls and strikes in Boston on Sunday Night Baseball tonight and he is one of MLB's top Over umpires at 9-2 this season, including Over in his last seven games behind the plate. Combine a stingy strike zone with the weather noted above and we could be in for a long night at Fenway Park.
The total for tonight's game between the Tigers and Red Sox opened at 10 and was bumped up to 11 due to sharp betting action on the Over.