MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, June 25th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Nationals
Feldman is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six road starts. Reds are 3-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Roark is 0-2, 11.85 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 4-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1

Reds lost 13 of their last 14 games; Reds’ last seven games went over the total. Washington won three of last four games; over is 10-2 in their last 12 games.

Cubs @ Marlins
Montgomery is 1-0, 3.00 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Cubs’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0-1

Volquez is 0-1, 11.42 in his last two starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Miami is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Cubs won six of last nine games, are 5-12 in last 17 road games; under is 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami won eight of its last 11 home games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Brewers @ Braves
Davies is 1-1, 9.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Milwaukee is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-3

Teheran is 3-1, 4.83 in his last five starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven. Braves are 2-6 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-5-2

Milwaukee lost four of its last six games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Atlanta won eight of last ten games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Kuhl is 1-1, 3.60 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Pirates are 1-5 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-7-2

Leake is 0-4, 5.58 in his last five starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cardinals are 1-6 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-4-2

Pirates are 5-3 in their last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games. St Louis lost eight of last 11 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Hellickson is 0-4, 6.82 in his last six starts; under is 5-1-1 in his road starts. Phillies are 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-8-1

Delgado is 0-1, 3.60in four starts this year (over 2-2). Arizona’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1-2

Phillies lost 13 of last 16 games; under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Arizona won 13 of its last 16 games; over is 7-2 in their last nine home games.

Rockies @ Dodgers
Anderson is making his first start since May 30- he is 1-2, 4.56 in his last four starts (over 7-4). Colorado is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-6

McCarthy is 3-2, 1.57 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Dodgers are 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-1

Colorado lost its last four games; under is 4-0 in their last four road games. Dodgers won 14 of last 15 games; over is 11-3 in their last 14 games.

Mets @ Giants
Montero is 0-1, 10.80 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 0-2

Moore is 1-2, 7.33 in his last five starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven. Giants are 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-11-2

Mets lost six of last nine games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. San Francisco lost 11 of last 12 games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games.

American League

Rangers @ New York
Martinez is 2-0, 2.19 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Texas is 2-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1

Pineda is 1-1, 5.32 in his last four starts; his last five all went over. New York is 6-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7

Texas won seven of last nine road games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. New York lost nine of its last 11 games; over is 8-4 in New York’s last 12 home games.

Orioles @ Rays
Tillman is 0-5, 11.63 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Baltimore is 0-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-5-3

Odorizzi is 1-1, 8.41 in his last four starts, all of which went over. Rays are 3-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-5-4

Baltimore is 5-12 in its last 17 games; over is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Tampa Bay won five of last seven games; Rays’ last ten home games went over.

Angels @ Red Sox
Bridwell is 1-0, 4.09 in two starts this year (over 2-0); Angels scored 17 runs in the two games- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0

Fister is making his first start for Boston; he is 77-76, 3.60 in 199 career starts- he was 1-0, 4.02 in three AAA starts this year.

Angels are 7-4 in last 11 road games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Boston is 10–3 in last 13 home games; four of their last six games went over.

Twins @ Indians
Santana is 2-2, 7.04 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Twins are 5-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 10-3-2

Tomlin is 1-2, 7.32 in his last four starts (over 8-6). Indians are 3-5 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-2

Minnesota won four of last five road games; under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Cleveland won eight of last 11 games; over is 3-2 in their last five home games.

A’s @ White Sox
Gray is 0-2, 7.39 in his last five starts (over 9-1). A’s are 0-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-3

Holland is 1-4, 9.55 in his last five starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. White Sox are 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-7-1

Oakland lost four of its last six games; over is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games. White Sox lost five of last six games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Blue Jays @ Royals
Liriano is 0-1, 6.48 in his last three starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Toronto is 5-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1

Hammel is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Royals are 2-6 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8-2

Toronto lost four of last five games; over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Royals won 11 of last 13 games; over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games.

Astros @ Mariners
Martes is 2-0, 3.37 in his two starts; Astros scored 21 runs in the two games (over 2-0)- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-0

Miranda is 0-1, 5.29 in his last three starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Seattle is 4-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-6

Houston won five of its last six games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Mariners are 10-4 in their last 14 home games; three of their last four games went over.

Interleague

Tigers @ Padres
Zimmerman is 1-1, 2.70 in his last four starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. Detroit is 0-7 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7

Richard is 2-2, 4.26 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. San Diego won his last three starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-7-1

Detroit lost its last eight games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. San Diego won its last five home games; five of Padres’ last six games stayed under the total.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Wsh: Feldman 6-9; Roark 9-6
Chi-Mia: Montgomery 1-2; Volquez 5-9
Mil-Atl: Davies 9-6; Teheran 7-8
Pitt-StL: Kuhl 4-10; Leake 6-8
Phil-Az: Hellickson 9-6; Delgado 1-3
Col-LA: Anderson 5-6; McCarthy 8-4
NY-SF: Montero 1-1; Moore 4-11

American League
Tex-NY: Martinez 6-4; Pineda 9-5
Balt-TB: Tillman 3-6; Odorizzi 5-8
LA-Bos: Bridwell 2-0; Fister 0-0
Min-Clev: Santana 9-6; Tomlin 5-9
A’s-Chi: Gray 4-6; Holland 6-8
Tor-KC: Liriano 7-4; Hammel 4-10
Hst-Sea: Martes 2-0; Miranda 9-6

Interleague
Det-SD: Zimmerman 5-9; Richard 6-9

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Wsh: Feldman 3-15; Roark 6-15
Chi-Mia: Montgomery 0-3; Volquez 6-14
Mil-Atl: Davies 5-15; Teheran 5-15
Pitt-StL: Kuhl 4-14; Leake 2-14
Phil-Az: Hellickson 6-15; Delgado 1-4
Col-LA: Anderson 1-11; McCarthy 2-12
NY-SF: Montero 1-2; Moore 5-15

American League
Tex-NY: Martinez 3-10; Pineda 7-14
Balt-TB: Tillman 5-9; Odorizzi 5-13
LA-Bos: Bridwell 0-2; Fister 0-0
Min-Clev: Santana 3-15; Tomlin 6-14
A’s-Chi: Gray 2-10; Holland 5-14
Tor-KC: Liriano 4-11; Hammel 1-14
Hst-Sea: Martes 1-2; Miranda 6-15

Interleague
Det-SD: Zimmerman 6-14; Richard 3-15

Umpires

National League
Cin-Wsh: Under is 4-1 in last five O’Nora games.
Chi-Mia: Underdogs are 5-5 (+$119) in last ten Carapazza games.
Mil-Atl: Seven of last eight Hickox games went over.
Pitt-StL: Home teams are 11-0 in Whitson games this year.
Phil-Az: Home side won Livensparger’s first two MLB games behind the plate.
Col-LA: Under is 4-2-2 in last eight Carlson games.
NY-SF: Over is 5-2-2 in last nine Woodring games.

American League
Tex-NY: Favorites won last eight HGibson games.
Balt-TB: Six of last eight Fagan games went over.
LA-Bos: Favorites won 10 of last 11 Hamari games.
Min-Clev: Under is 4-0-1 in last five Fairchild games.
A’s-Chi: Over is 8-4-1 in last 13 Holbrook games.
Tor-KC: Home team is 8-2 in Tumpane games this year.
Hst-Sea: Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Barksdale games; underdogs are 9-4 in his last 13.

Interleague

Det-SD: Six of last seven Dreckman games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 40-22 AL, favorites +$18
AL @ NL– 37-37, favorites -$659
Total: 77-58 AL, favorites -$641

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 40-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 42-27-2
Total: Over 82-53-3

Armadillosports.com

Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Dodgers (9-0 past nine games, 15-1 past 16 overall)

The Dodgers continued to mow down the competition on Saturday, turning back the division rival Rockies by a 4-0 count behind Clayton Kershaw. They have outscored the Rockies 10-1 over the first two games of the series, and they're outscoring the competition 108-57 over the past 16 outings. Brandon McCarthy looks to keep the Dodgers in the win column on Sunday. They have won 13 of his past 16 starts at Chavez Ravine, and 11 of his past 15 outings. And for what it's worth, the Dodgers have won each of McCarthy's past six assignments on Sunday. The Rockies are slipping, winning just once in the past six road games while going 0-4 in their past four against divisional foes.

Coldest team: Giants (0-4 past four games, 1-11 past 12 overall)

While it's very pleasing to Dodgers fans to see their team on the 'hottest team' area, it's likely just as pleasing seeing the Giants in the 'coldest team' section. For bettors, they have been fading the Giants hard lately. San Francisco has not only lost four in a row, but they have lost by an average of 3.4 runs per game, and just two of their past 11 losses have been of the one-loss variety. The Giants have been outscored 16-6 over the first two games of the series against the Mets, who entered 1-7 in their previous eight games before wins Friday and Saturday. The Giants haven't had much luck vs. RHP, going 3-13 over their past 16, including 0-7 in their past seven at home against righties.

Hottest pitcher: Ervin Santana, Twins (9-4, 2.97 ERA)

The Twins have picked up road victories in each of the first two games in Cleveland, and they look for the sweep on Sunday behind their best pitcher. Minnesota improved to 22-9 on the road this season, second-best in the majors only to Houston. The Twins are 17-4 in their past 21 road games vs. RHP, and 5-1 across Santana's past six road outings. Santana's dominance will be put to the test against a Cleveland team which is 8-0 in their past eight on a Sunday. The Indians are also 5-1 over Josh Tomlin's past six against the Twins, while Minnesota is still just 5-14 over the past 19 games against Cleveland despite their 2-0 series advantage so far.

Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (3-7, 5.82 ERA)

Moore has really struggled this season, allowing 55 earned runs through 15 starts, third-most in the majors this season. The opposition is hitting .297 against Moore this season, and he has allowed 32 walks and 102 hits through just 85 innings. San Francisco is just 1-5 over his six outings and 1-4 over his past five starts at home. The Giants are also 3-13 over their past 16 vs. RHP while going 0-7 in their past seven at home vs. RHP. San Francisco is also just 2-6 in Moore's past eight starts with four days of rest while going 1-5 over his past six against National League East opponents.

Biggest UNDER run: Padres (5-1 past six games)

The 'under' has connected in five of the past six for the Padres, and the under is 8-2-1 in their past 11 in the third game of a series. They're also 5-1 in Clayton Richard's past six starts on a Sunday, while going 3-0-1 over his past four against a team with a losing record. The over has been hitting for Detroit lately, going 3-1-1 in their past five road games. However, the under is 5-2-1 in Detroit's past eight interleague road outings and 3-1-1 in Jordan Zimmermann's past five road starts. The over hit in Saturday's game, but the under easily cashed in Friday's interleague series opener.

Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (11-5-1 past 17 games overall)

The Diamondbacks had hit the 'over' frequently this season, and the over is 11-5-1 across the past 17 outings. They have been picking on right-handed pitching to post most of their offense, going 39-19-1 in their past 59 at home vs. RHP. The over is also 52-23-3 over the past 78 at home, including 25-10-1 in the past 36 at Chase Field against teams with a road winning percentage of .400 or less. The over is also 10-3 in Randall Delgado's past 13 assignments, including 6-1 in his past seven outings when starting Game 3 of a series.

Matchup to watch: Cardinals vs. Pirates

Two ice-cold teams meet on Sunday night. These two National League Central Division foes had much higher expectations at the beginning of the season, but both find themselves several games under .500. The good news is that Pittsburgh is just four games back of the division-leading Brewers, while the Cards are five behind. So all is not lost despite the atrocious play at times, and this Sunday night game is tremendously important. The Bucs turn to Chad Kuhl to get the win, but they're just 1-4 over his past five outings and 1-6 in his past seven on the road. The Cardinals aren't much better lately, going 3-8 over their past 11 overall, 0-5 in their past five at home against a right-handed starter and 7-17 in their past 24 overall vs. RHP. They're also just 1-4 in Mike Leake's past five starts and 3-13 over his past 16 outings at home.

Betcha didn’t know: The Tigers have dropped eight in a row, and all eyes are on manager Brad Ausmus and whether or not the team will make a move to can him. In the meantime, Jordan Zimmermann gets the ball looking to snap Detroit's lengthy skid. He has four straight quality starts, including three runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outings against the Mariners on Tuesday. He hasn't faced the Padres much in his career, when he has faced them it has been mostly favorable results. Zimm is 3-2 with a 1.69 ERA in eight career starts against the Padres, including a pair of complete games.

Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-210) vs. Rangers

Biggest public underdog: Rockies (+170) at Dodgers

Biggest line move: Athletics (+105 to -125) at White Sox

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Chicago (NL) (-120) at Miami; Total: 9

Mike Montgomery and Edinson Volquez will wrap up this series in South Florida. The Cubs are looking to take three out of four, as it sort of feels like the team is starting to turn a corner. The Marlins have been a sharp darling all year, but haven’t been able to put it all together.

This is a particularly interesting handicap. Mike Montgomery has good base numbers this season with a 2.26 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 4.33 xFIP, but he’s made 18 of his 21 appearances in relief. Montgomery has actually gotten fortunate to have the numbers that he has because his K% and BB% are not pleasing to look at. He’s an extreme ground ball guy at 61 percent and the Cubs have done a remarkable job of turning those worm-burners into outs. Montgomery only has a .254 BABIP against.

In three starts, Montgomery has given up four runs, five earned, on 12 hits across 15 innings. He’s struck out 13 and walked six. The Marlins are a tick above league average against lefties this season, but the Marlins are a team playing with a lot of uncertainty. The phone lines are open for trades as the team looks to shed salary for a potential buyer. That can have a negative impact on the field. I think that’s part of the reason why we’ve seen some sharper guys back off on the Marlins steam over the last few days.

Edinson Volquez, who has a no-hitter to his name this season, has allowed 11 runs over his last 8.2 innings. After working seven shutout in the start immediately following his no-hitter, Volquez has lost his control over his last two outings. He’s walked nine and struck out seven. He’s only allowed nine hits, but those walks have come back to hurt him in a big way. If the Cubs are patient on this getaway day Sunday, they should have success.

I’d probably have a slight lean to the Cubs here.

Milwaukee at Atlanta (-130); Total: 9.5

There aren’t many in the marketplace that are interested in backing either Zach Davies or Julio Teheran right now. The Brewers are struggling a bit, as we would expect from a younger team experiencing success. They’re still getting pretty good starting pitching, but the offense is in the tank once again. That’s not a good sign with Davies on the hill.

Davies is a guy that I had high hopes for coming into the season, but he has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.28 FIP and a 4.73 xFIP. His command and his control have gone backwards, which is a bit surprising given how well his rotation mates have been pitching. Davies just isn’t trustworthy right now. Neither is Teheran, whom the market has bet against a few times in recent weeks. I can’t play an afternoon getaway day over, so this is a stay away game.

That being said, if you wanted to roll the dice on Milwaukee, they have been able to limit losing streaks in a big way this season. They’ve been a very resilient team this season. It’s kind of a gut feeling that they get this game, but not one I feel overly confident in.

Oakland (-125) at Chicago (AL); Total: 10

One day after blowing up James Shields’s spot, the A’s will take their cuts against Derek Holland. Oakland will counter with Sonny Gray, whose trade value is the big story right now. Oakland’s youth movement is on. Matt Chapman came up, although he’s hurt. Jaycob Brugman is on the scene. Now, Franklin Barreto has been called up. The 21-year-old homered in his second MLB at bat yesterday. Expect a little bit of life from Oakland. The market seems to, as this number has gone from -105 each way to Oakland -125.

Gray has a 4.84 ERA with a 3.52 xFIP, so there’s more to the move than the anecdotal idea that the A’s will simply play with more panache. Gray has struck out 58 in 57.2 innings of work this season and has showcased some really good stuff. His 61.7 percent LOB% has been a problem across his 10 starts. I doubt he’s affected by the trade talks, since it’s an annual thing in Oakland. The A’s will have a lot of suitors.

All of the sudden, Derek Holland is sporting a 4.48 ERA with a 5.60 FIP and a 5.11 xFIP. Holland has given up 16 HR in 76.1 innings of work on the season. His ERA would be higher, but 11 of the runs he has allowed have been unearned. I’m not overly interested in laying a dollar and a quarter with Oakland on the road, but that’s about the only way you can go with this game.

Toronto (-110) at Kansas City; Total: 9.5

How did that old Aaliyah song go? “If at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself off and try again”? Well, the market tried again yesterday with Toronto, so they’ll try for a third time today with Francisco Liriano against Jason Hammel. The Blue Jays are like baseball’s version of getting up in the middle of the night to take a piss and stubbing your toe on the way to the bathroom. As you curse your way back to bed, you do it again. Then you’re wide awake because you’re seeing stars and even more angry.

The Blue Jays, when healthy, have a ton of talent and should be a contender. They’re not playing like one and John Gibbons certainly isn’t managing like one. The loss of Roberto Osuna to anxiety problems has shown the weaknesses of the back end of this bullpen and that has been a problem. One that may not be solved all that quickly.

Liriano has a 5.76 ERA with a 4.80 FIP and a 4.81 xFIP. Hammel has a 4.83 ERA with a 4.44 FIP and a 5.33 xFIP. I don’t really like starts like this where I’m basically forced to guess which guy will suck less. The Royals rank 27th in wOBA against LHP and have a 79 wRC+, so it’s safe to assume that they have the worse matchup here, but Liriano has made decent matchups a nightmare in the past. We’ll see if the Jays can salvage a game. I’m not overly confident, but you won’t see me with a Royals ticket.

Detroit (-115) at San Diego; Total: 9

Jordan Zimmermann and Clayton Richard star in the latest edition of Bad Pitchers Getting Starts, which has been in theaters every day since the start of the season. It seriously feels like Groundhog Day every day because the league has a massive lack of starting pitchers across the board. I don’t remember if it has ever been this bad or if the juiced ball or the explosion of runs has just made it seem that way.

Anyway, Zimmermann has as good of a matchup as he’s going to get. The right-hander has a 5.25 ERA with a 5.66 FIP and a 5.33 xFIP, but he’s actually pitched pretty well of late. Zimmermann has allowed eight runs over his last four starts covering 26.2 innings of work. I’m not going to chalk this up to some sort of renaissance or anything. It just looks like variance, particularly in the HR/FB% category, where Zimmermann has only allowed two over his last four starts after allowing 16 over his first 10 starts.

My biggest concern with the Tigers in this spot is that I have chalked them up as a team to fade on Sundays. They’re an older lineup forced to play day games and they’re not a contender. Richard has a 4.20 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 3.69 xFIP. A .336 BABIP against with a 58 percent ground ball rate has hurt him and his HR/FB% is 17.5 percent, which isn’t great when you don’t allow a lot of fly balls. Righties have hit all 10 HR that Richard has allowed and they own a .295/.348/.487 slash. That makes him a bad matchup in this spot against a right-handed-heavy Tigers lineup.

I’d have to roll with Detroit today, as much as I hate myself for it.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (-145); Total: 8.5

We nailed yesterday’s Cole vs. Lynn analysis, so that was good to see. I don’t have a whole lot of thoughts on tonight’s Chad Kuhl vs. Mike Leake soiree. Leake is a regression candidate and Kuhl is a guy that hasn’t pitched up to his stuff. We also don’t have any good situational spots coming out of this game. Catch up on Billions or binge watch something on Netflix tonight and take the evening off.

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Pirates, Cardinals clash
By: StatFox.com

The Pirates will be looking for a big road victory when they take on the Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball.

Both the Pirates and the Cardinals have been underperforming this season, and that makes this Sunday night game a good one. Both teams know that they can’t afford to keep losing games, as they both aren’t that far behind in their division. They both are currently trailing the Brewers, but there’s a very good chance that somebody overtakes Milwaukee by the end of the year. The Brewers are good, but they were not expected to be better than either of these two teams or the Cubs. The starters in this game on Sunday are going to be RHP Chad Kuhl (2-6, 5.46 ERA, 53 K) for Pittsburgh and RHP Mike Leake (5-6, 3.03 ERA, 66 K) for St. Louis. Kuhl has pitched well in four straight games for Pittsburgh, so he should be confident when he gets out there on Sunday. Leake, meanwhile, is coming off of a good start for the Cards. He had let up six earned runs in six innings two starts ago, so he really needed it.

If the Pirates are going to win on Sunday then they will need Chad Kuhl to continue to pitch the way he has over his past four starts. Kuhl doesn’t work deep into games for this Pirates team, but he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts. He has gone at least five innings in each of those outings, and Pittsburgh will be hoping he can go a bit further into this one. Kuhl tends to put a lot of runners on and work himself out of jams, and he needs to find a way to be better at the beginning of innings. Offensively, OF Andrew McCutchen and 3B David Freese are two guys to watch out for in this game. McCutchen is 21-for-80 with two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against Leake in his career. He has seen him a bunch and knows his tendencies, so he should be able to get a few good at bats in. Freese has been even better against the righty, going 16-for-31 with four doubles, a homer, and six RBI in their head-to-head matchup. He’ll hope to have a big game on the national stage.

Mike Leake is coming off of a very good outing against the Phillies, as the righty allowed just one earned run in six innings of work on Jun. 20. Leake struck out five batters in that game, and it was the third time he had done that in the past four starts. Leake has already faced Pittsburgh once this season, and he allowed just one earned run in 6.1 innings in that Apr. 18 start. He’d certainly sign up for yet another one of those outings on Sunday, and will do everything he can to avoid the type of start he had against the Brewers two starts ago. Offensively, 1B Matt Carpenter is one of the few Cardinals that has had success against Kuhl. It’s a very small sample size, but he is 2-for-4 with a double against the righty. The Cardinals will definitely be hoping that he can step it up and produce in this one. They’ll also want something from OF Stephen Piscotty and C Yadier Molina.

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (-135, 9)

The New York Mets and the Giants will wrap up their three-game series Sunday afternoon at beautiful AT&T Park in San Francisco.

This game simply comes down to quality of starting pitching.

Matt Moore gets the ball this afternoon for the Giants. While he's certainly had a rough time in 2017, make no mistake about it...Matt Moore is a major league starting pitcher. At home this season his team win/loss is only 2-4 but he owns a nice 3.07 ERA. The problem with Moore and the Giants is run support. In those six home starts he has only received 1.33 runs per game from his offense.

The Giants offense should be able to get enough for Moore to be successful today with Rafael Montero getting the ball for the Mets. While primarily a relief pitcher, Montero has made two starts this season and they did not go well. As a starting pitcher this season he carries an ERA of 10.80, a WHIP of 2.70, and an opponent's on base percentage of .487.

The Giants should be able to scrape across enough runs to avoid the sweep today.

Pick: Giants (-135)

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 8.5)

The final game of this three-game weekend series between the Pirates and the Cardinals goes off on Sunday Night Baseball. The Pirates won the first two games so the Cardinals will be looking to Mike Leake to settle things down tonight.

Despite breaking out for 10 total runs Saturday, these two teams have a history of low scoring games when meeting head-to-head. They have played each other five times this season and, prior to last night, the average total runs scored in the first four games was only 4.0 - all four meetings went Under the closing total.

The Pirates are on a bit of an Under run with an Under record of 9-3-1 in their last 13 games and starting pitcher Chad Kuhl's last two starts against the Cards (including one earlier this season) have cashed for Under bettors. He performed very well in those two starts against St. Louis, allowing only two runs per start.

Mike Leake has been as hard-luck as you can get at home this season. His team win/loss record at Busch Stadium is 1-6 but it certainly isn't his fault. Leake owns a 3.30 ERA at home this season and has only received 2.71 runs per game of offense in those seven starts. Leake also has a good history in starts against the Pirates with the Under cashing in five of his last six starts against the Bucs, including a nice one earned run performance earlier this season.

Pick: Under 8.5

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 73-61-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Francis Martes, Houston Astros (2-0, 5.02, $200)

Astros' top prospect Francis Martes has only made two starts in his young major league pitching career, but they have both gone pretty well. When he was first called up a few weeks ago he was immediately put into the bullpen. His one bullpen appearance was a disaster and he was moved into the starting rotation for his first big league start June 14.

Martes has won both of his starts while putting up an ERA of 3.38 and only allowing nine hits against the Rangers and Athletics. Walks could be an issue (just like they were for him in the minors) but if can them under control the kid will have a bright future.

Martes and the Astros are currently -120 favorites on the road in Seattle this afternoon.

Slumping: Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (1-5, 8.39, $-286)

The Baltimore Orioles have the worst pitching staff in all of Major League Baseball, and right-hander Chris Tillman may be the worst of the bunch.

As if a 1-5 record and an ERA of 8.39 weren't enough, over his last three starts he's been even worse with an ERA of 16.03 a WHIP of 3.09 and an opponent's on base percentage of .524. Pitching numbers don't really get much worse than that. Another bad start today in Tampa Bay (O's +140 underdogs) and he could find himself on the fake disabled list...or worse.

Sunday's Top Trends

* Over is 10-1 in Tampa Bay Rays' last 11 home games. Orioles/Rays Total: 9.5.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall. +140 today @ Nationals.
* The Toronto Blue Jays are 10-1 in Francisco Liriano's last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game. -115 today @ Royals.
* The Detroit Tigers are 0-8 in Jordan Zimmermann's last 8 road starts. -110 today @ Padres.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is no rain in the forecast Sunday for any MLB city without a roof, so let's focus on the wind.

The wind will be blowing straight out to center field (10-15 miles per hour) at Fenway Park today for this afternoon's game between the Red Sox and the visiting Angels. The total is currently set at 11.

There will also be a strong hitter's wind (15-17 miles per hour) blowing out to left-center on the South Side of Chicago where the White Sox will be entertaining the A's. The total is currently 10.

Ump Of The Day

Chad Whitson will be calling balls and strikes in St. Louis tonight and that is the worst possible news for fans/backers of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Whitson is in the midst of a statistically perfect season with the home team having won all 11 of his games behind the plate this season. A $100 wager on the home team in all of Whitson's games in 2017 would have profited $1159 thus far.

The Cardinals are -140 favorites tonight at home on Sunday Night Baseball.