MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, May 28th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Reds @ Phillies
Feldman is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three road starts; under is 3-1 in his last four starts overall.
Elfin is 0-2, 8.22 in his last four starts; his last five starts went over.
Reds lost 10 of last 14 games; eight of last 12 Cincy games went over the total. Philly is 3-10 in its last 13 games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine home games.
Mets @ Pirates
Harvey is 1-3, 7.61 in his last five starts; Mets lost his last four road starts. Over is 6-2-1 in his starts this season.
Glasnow is 1-2, 7.78 in his last four starts (over 7-1-1).
New York lost four of last six games; over is 12-1-1 in their last 14 road games. Pirates won five of last seven home games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Padres @ Nationals
Chacin is 2-4, 11.28 in six road starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts overall.
Ross is 2-0, 5.32 in four starts this year (over 4-0); Washington scored 62 runs in those four games.
San Diego lost five of last seven road games; under is 3-0 in their last three games. Washington won five of its last six games; under is 6-1 in Nationals’ last seven games.
Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Corbin is 2-1, 7.77 in his last four starts; four of his last five starts stayed under.
Nelson is 1-3, 4.65 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Arizona won 10 of last 12 games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 road games. Milwaukee lost five of its last six games; over is 16-6 in their last 22 games at Miller Park.
Cardinals @ Rockies
Lynn is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five.
Marquez is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts; four of his last five starts stayed under.
St Louis lost six of last nine games; over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 road games. Colorado is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 9-3 in last 12 games at Coors Field.
Cubs @ Dodgers
Lester is 2-0, 2.40 in his last two starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven outings.
Kershaw is 3-0, 1.19 in his last four starts; over is 3-2 in his home starts.
Cubs won three of last five games; under is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Los Angeles won nine of last 11 home games; six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
Braves @ Giants
Dickey is 0-1, 5.18 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six.
Cueto is 0-3, 5.00 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Atlanta won five of last seven road games; over is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Giants lost four of last five games; under is 3-2 in their last five games.
American League
Rangers @ Blue Jays
Cashner is 1-1, 3.38 in his last four starts (under 5-2-1).
Biagini is 1-1, 5.19 in four starts this year (under 3-1).
Texas lost six of last seven games after a 10-game win streak; over is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Toronto won its last five games; over is 4-2 in their last six home games.
A’s @ New York
Triggs is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts, three of which went over.
Pineda is 2-1, 3.96 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.
Oakland is 3-9 in its last 12 road games; over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. New York won four of last six games; under is 7-2 in their last nine home games.
Royals @ Indians
Duffy is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight outings.
Tomlin is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Royals won three of last four games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 games. Indians lost seven of last nine home games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Mariners @ Red Sox
Bergman is 1-2, 7.17 in three starts this year; he allowed 10 runs in four IP in his last start (under 2-1).
Porcello is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four.
Mariners lost 12 of last 16 games, got shut out last two days; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Boston won its last six games; over is 9-4 in last 13 Red Sox games.
Tigers @ White Sox
Zimmerman is 1-2, 6.65 in his last four starts (over 7-2).
Gonzalez is 0-5, 7.62 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six.
Tigers lost seven of last ten games; under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 road games. White Sox lost four of last six games; over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games.
Rays @ Twins
Cobb is 2-2, 4.08 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Gibson is 2-4, 8.90 in seven starts this year, last four of which went over.
Tampa Bay won seven of last 11 games; their last seven games stayed under. Minnesota won four of last six games; Twins’ last six games stayed under the total.
Orioles @ Astros
Asher is 0-1, 2.92 in two starts this year (under 2-0); Orioles scored total of three runs in the two games.
McCullers is 3-0, 0.38 in his last four starts; his last five starts stayed under.
Baltimore lost its last six games; their last four games stayed under. Houston won five of its last six games; under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.
Interleague
Angels @ Marlins
Shoemaker is 3-0, 1.93 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four.
Urena is 2-2, 4.37 in four starts, 0-2, 3.86 at home (over 2-2).
Angels are 5-9 in last 14 road games; under is 7-3 in their last ten road games. Miami is 5-16 in its last 21 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Cin-Phil: Feldman 3-7; Eflin 2-5
NY-Pitt: Harvey 3-6; Glasnow 5-4
SD-Wsh: Chacin 4-6; Ross 4-0
Az-Mil: Corbin 6-4; Nelson 3-6
StL-Col: Lynn 5-4; Marquez 3-3
Chi-LA: Lester 5-5; Kershaw 8-2
Atl-SF: Dickey 5-4; Cueto 6-4
American League
Tex-Tor: Cashner 3-5; Biagini 3-1
A’s-NY: Triggs 6-3; Pineda 7-2
KC-Clev: Duffy 5-5; Tomlin 3-6 (0-3 last 3)
Sea-Bos: Bergman 1-2; Porcello 5-5
Det-Chi: Zimmerman 4-5; Gonzalez 4-5 (0-5 last 5)
TB-Minn: Cobb 4-6; Gibson 3-4
Balt-Hst: Asher 0-2; McCullers 8-2
Interleague
LAA-Mia: Shoemaker 7-3; Urena 2-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National League
Cin-Phil: Feldman 2-10; Eflin 5-7
NY-Pitt: Harvey 4-9; Glasnow 3-9
SD-Wsh: Chacin 4-10; Ross 2-4
Az-Mil: Corbin 5-10; Nelson 2-9
StL-Col: Lynn 4-9; Marquez 2-6
Chi-LA: Lester 3-10; Kershaw 4-10
Atl-SF: Dickey 3-9; Cueto 4-10
American League
Tex-Tor: Cashner 2-8; Biagini 1-4
A’s-NY: Triggs 4-9 (3 of last 3); Pineda 4-9
KC-Clev: Duffy 1-10; Tomlin 4-9
Sea-Bos: Bergman 0-3; Porcello 2-10
Det-Chi: Zimmerman 4-9; Gonzalez 3-9
TB-Minn: Cobb 2-10; Gibson 1-7
Balt-Hst: Asher 0-2; McCullers 1-10
Interleague
LAA-Mia: Shoemaker 6-10; Urena 1-4
Umpires
National League
Cin-Phil: Under is 5-1-1 in Tichenor games this season.
NY-Pitt: Last five Nelson games went over the total.
SD-Wsh: Under is 7-2 in Bellino games this season.
Az-Mil: Under is 6-2 in L Barrett games this season.
StL-Col: Six of last eight T Barrett games went over.
Chi-LA: Favorites won five of last six Iassogna games.
Atl-SF: Four of last five Drake games stayed under.
American League
Tex-Tor: Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Wendelstedt games.
A’s-NY: Underdogs won last four Kellogg games.
KC-Clev: Seven of last eight Marquez games went over.
Sea-Bos: Six of last eight Everitt games went over.
Det-Chi: Last nine Hallion games went over the total.
TB-Minn: Over is 3-1-1 in last five Hoye games.
Balt-Hst: Five of last six Foster games stayed under.
Interleague
LAA-Mia: Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Woodring games.
Interleague play
NL @ AL– 24-11 AL, favorites -$57
AL @ NL– 26-24 AL, favorites +$599
Total: 50-35 AL, favorites +$542
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 18-20-1
AL @ NL: Over 29-19
Total: Over 47-39-1
Sunday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Red Sox (6-0 past six games, 8-3 past 11 at home)
The Red Sox haven't been very good hosts to the Mariners, winning the first two games by a combined 9-0 score. Boston is a perfect 5-0 on the homestand and they have won six in a row overall. Now they'll have 2016 AL Cy Young award winner Rick Porcello on the hill against Christian Bergman in a game that looks like a mismatch on paper. The Mariners are 8-20 over their past 28 road games, 1-7 in their past eight overall and just 1-10 in their past 11 against American League East foes. Boston is 7-1 in Porcello's past eight home starts agaisnt a team with a losing record and 20-8 in his past 28 at Fenway overall.
Coldest team Rangers (0-5 past five games overall)
The Rangers rattled off 10 consecutive victories from May 9-19, but they have followed that impressive run up with a 1-6 record over the past seven outings, all on the road. They rallied nicely in Friday's series opener in Toronto, falling 7-6, but Marco Estrada outpitched Yu Darvish in Saturday's middle game for a 3-1 victory. Texas is also 0-4 in their past four against right-handed starters, 0-4 in Andrew Cashner's past four road outings and 4-18 in their past 22 games against AL East opponents.
Hottest pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (7-2, 2.01 ERA)
Kershaw will match up with Jon Lester of the Cubs in a marquee pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon. Kershaw has limited to the Cubs to a .218 batting average in eight career starts while posting 68 strikeouts over 53 2/3 innings. He tied a season best with 10 strikeouts last time out against St. Louis, and he has 10 quality starts in 10 outings so far. Kershaw has been outstanding at home or on the road, but he is especially hot when pitching under the sun. He is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two day starts, walking none, striking out 13 and limiting the opposition to a .106 average.
Coldest pitcher: Josh Tomlin, Indians (2-6, 6.70 ERA)
Tomlin won a career-high 13 games last season, but he is on pace to lose 21 games if he doesn't start to turn things around. He has shown no signs of that, allowing 10 earned runs in just 8 2/3 innings over his past two outings, both losses. The Indians are 1-5 over Tomlin's past six home starts while the Indians are 0-5 over their past five at home. The Indians are also 3-7 in Tomlin's past 10 starts while the Royals are an impressive 7-3 over their past 10 games against a right-handed starter. Kansas City is also just 1-6 in their past seven with Tomlin on the hil and 3-7 in their past 10 with Tomlin on the bump at Progressive Field.
Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (1-6 past seven games overall)
The Nationals pitching staff has been on point lately, allowing a total of nine runs over the past six outings. They have outscored the Padres by an 8-1 margin in the first two games of the series. Joe Ross has a 5.32 ERA overall, but he is coming off an eight-inning outing Tuesday against the Mariners when he allowed just one earned run with five hits and six strikeouts. The 'under' is also 5-2 in San Diego's past seven against teams with a winning record, although the 'over' has cashed in five of Jhoulys Chacin's past six starts overall, including 4-0 in his past four road outings. The 'over' is also 6-0 in Ross' past six starts overall, and 6-0 in his past six in D.C.
Biggest OVER run: Pirates (5-0 past five games overall)
The 'over' cashed in five straight for the Pirates, although they needed late-inning heroics from John Jaso in Saturday's extra-innings victory. Jaso came up as a pinch hitter in the ninth inning and delivered the game-tying single to force extras, then he belted an RBI single in the 10th to send the PNC Park crowd to the parking lot with smiles on their faces. Pittsburgh won 5-4 with a line of 8 1/2 runs as 'under' bettors cursed closer Addison Reed, who blew his second save in eight chances.
Matchup to watch: Pirates vs. Mets
The Mets and Pirates will lock horns in Sunday's nationally televised game at night. Matt Harvey has a 3-3 record with a 5.36 ERA this season, and he hasn't won back-to-back starts since April 6-11. The former standout at the University of North Carolina has had difficulty with walks, issuing three or more free passes in each of his past five outings while walking two or more in seven consecutive starts. New York is just 3-7 in their past 10 following a loss, and they're 4-11 in their past 15 games overall. They're also a dismal 1-10 over their past 11 in Game 3 of a series. The Pirates are 11-4 in their past 15 against the Mets, including 7-2 in the past nine meetings in the Steel City.
Betcha didn’t know: San Francisco's Johnny Cueto has dropped back-to-back starts as he has been affected by blisters on his pitching hand. As such he has yielded nine runs over 12 innings during the two-start span. The veteran has compiled a 1-3 record with a 3.86 ERA across seven career starts against the Braves, who have won or tied in each of their past five series (3-0-2). It will be a contrast in styles, as Atlanta rolls out knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. The veteran has walked 28 batters and struck out 25 this season, although he is 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA in five career starts against San Francisco.
Biggest public favorite: Astros (-225) vs. Orioles
Biggest public underdog: Diamondbacks (+120) at Brewers
Biggest line move: Marlins (+120 to -110) vs. Angels
MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com
Double-Play Picks
St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies (-120, 11)
Picking Unders at Coors Field used to be the main ingredient in a recipe for disaster, but times have changed and a solid Rockies' pitching staff has made the Under a very profitable wager in the Mile High City. Under is 15-10 in Rockies' home games this season and oddsmakers seem slow to adjust as they are still facing betting totals of 10.5, 11, 11.5, and even 12 on a nightly basis.
This afternoon the Rox will send German Marquez to the mound to face the Cardinals. Marquez got off to a bit of a rocky start to the 2017 season, but he has really settled in over his last three starts with only two earned runs allowed which works out to a very tidy 0.95 ERA. His last start at home was an eight inning, three-hit shutout performance against the Chicago Cubs back on May 10.
The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn who continues to be a Quality Start machine for the Cardinals this season with six of his nine outings being of the "Quality" variety. Lynn is coming off his best start of 2017 (eight innings of two-hit pitching on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers) and he will look to duplicate that performance today in Denver.
Whenever you pick a game in Denver you have to look at the visiting starter's career numbers at Coors Field - some guys just can't handle the thin air. Lance Lynn seems to handle the "Mile High" conditions just fine. In three career starts on the road against the Rockies Lynn owns a 1.61 ERA with zero home runs allowed.
Also, Under has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the Cardinals and Rockies in Denver.
Pick: Under 11
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-110, 9)
In a bit of a strange move, MLB has scheduled the New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates for their primetime Sunday Night Baseball spot. We realize that not all Sunday night games can involve the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers and a little bit of variety is nice from time to time. But the Mets and Pirates?!?!
Either way, we have to make a pick on the game and the immediate reaction is runs, runs, and more runs.
It's certainly no secret that Mets' starter Matt Harvey has been terrible this season. New York actually won his last start (after dropping his previous six outings) but it took a seven run first inning against the Padres, and even then Harvey looked like he was going to give away the early cushion in an eventual 9-3 victory. Over the course of his last six trips to the mound Harvey owns a 7.92 ERA, has allowed eight home runs, was cucked by Julian Edelman, and was suspended by the team for the resulting bender/unauthorized sick day.
Harvey's mound opponent tonight hasn't been much better. Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow owns a season ERA of 6.69, a WHIP of 1.93, and an opponent's on base percentage of a lofty .400. The giant righty is going to be a valuable member of the Pirates' rotation for years to come, but he is struggling to figure it out right now with an Over record of 7-0-1 over his last eight starts.
There is also an Over trending umpire calling balls and strikes tonight with Over cashing in Jeff Nelson's last five games behind the plate.
Pick: Over 9
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 46-37-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Lance McCullers, Houston Astros (5-1, 2.43 ERA, $584)
This is the easiest decision for a streaking starter we've had all season...and it even comes on a day with Clayton Kershaw on the starter's list.
Lance McCullers Jr. has been dynamite all season, but over his last four starts he has allowed zero earned runs over 30.1 innings, has only allowed 10 hits in those four starts, and is coming off a start against the Tigers where he allowed only one hit.
McCullers brings heavy chalk today at -220 but can be had at a decent runline price of -105.
Slumping: Zach Eflin, Philadelphia Phillies (0-2, 5.36 ERA, $-226)
Eflin actually got off to a fairly decent start to the 2017 season but things have really fallen off the rails for the young Phillies' starter in his last two trips to the hill. In consecutive starts against the Rangers and Rockies, Eflin allowed 7 and 8 earned runs which works out to an ERA of 13.50 over those 10 innings of work.
Eflin just isn't missing any bats recently with too few strikeouts and too many hits allowed. It's worth noting that the Loss/Over combo has cashed in his last five starts - never a good trend for a starting pitcher.
Eflin and the Phillies are home dogs today at +120 against the visiting Reds.
Sunday's Top Trends
* The Texas Rangers are 4-18 in their last 22 vs. American League East. +155 today @ Blue Jays.
* The Miami Marlins are 1-11 in Jose Urena's last 12 home starts. +100 today vs. Angels.
* Under is 9-2 in the Cleveland Indians' last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Total: 8.5 vs. Duffy and the Royals
* The New York Mets are 1-8 in Matt Harvey's last 9 Sunday starts. -110 tonight @ Pirates.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a chance of thunderstorms and an increasing chance of rain (up as high as 80 percent) in Cleveland today where the Indians are scheduled to host the Royals. Rain may also be a problem tonight in Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Baseball with a chance of thunderstorms all evening and a POP ranging from 65-75 percent.
There will be a nice hitter's wind in Minneapolis today where the Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays with a 15-18 mile per hour breeze blowing out to right-center field throughout the afternoon.
Ump Of The Day
Tom Hallion: Tom Hallion gets the pads today on the South Side of Chicago where the White Sox will host the Detroit Tigers in an afternoon contest. Hallion is baseball's top Over umpire with nine of his 10 games behind the plate this season cashing for Over bettors.
Hallion's very low strike percentage (61.59%) forces pitchers to, essentially, put the ball on a tee for the hitters. Jordan Zimmermann and Miquel Gonzalez will be the frustrated hurlers this afternoon with the total set at a very reachable 9.5.