MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 27

Red Sox at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know
Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (-112, 7.5)

St. Louis leads series 2-1.

The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals are proving to be so evenly matched, that only a rare call could separate the teams. The Cardinals came out on the good side of an obstruction ruling in the ninth inning of Game 3 to grab a 2-1 lead in the World Series and will try to make it 3-1 when they host the Red Sox in Game 4 on Sunday. Allen Craig scored the game-winning run thanks to that obstruction call at third base, but may have suffered an injury on the play.

Craig had to slide into third, stumble over Will Middlebrooks and slide into home on the final play of Game 3 and clearly came out limping while his team celebrated around him. Both Boston and St. Louis had problems in the bullpen Saturday, making it two games in a row that the Red Sox middle relief crew let a series of inherited runners score in a loss. The Cardinals are getting offense from Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina while Boston is forced to chose between David Ortiz and Mike Napoli at first base.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 50s with clear skies and winds blowing SSE at 4 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Lance Lynn (0-0, 5.40)

Buchholz was the No. 2 starter during the ALCS but was pushed to Game 4 of the World Series due to shoulder fatigue. The 29-year-old went through an intense throwing session Friday and is ready to go but will likely be backed up by long reliever Ryan Dempster. Buchholz was not able to go more than 85 pitches in either of his two ALCS starts against Detroit.

Lynn could be on a short leash as well after topping out at 83 pitches in his two previous starts this postseason. The 26-year-old surrendered two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings at Los Angeles in Game 4 of the NLCS but issued three walks. Lynn is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA in nine career interleague games - six starts.

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 37-14 in their last 51 games following a loss.
* Red Sox are 29-59 in their last 88 games as underdogs.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six interleague home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals' last four games as a home favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Paul Emmel:

* Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five games with Emmel behind home plate.
* Under is 4-1 in Emmel's last five games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Emmel's last seven interleague games behind home plate vs. Boston.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox LHP Craig Breslow allowed three runs (two earned) on two hits, one walk and one hit-by-pitch while recording one out in the last two games.

2. St. Louis is 13-1 in its last 14 postseason games at home.

3. Boston C Jarrod Saltalamacchia is 0-for-10 with seven strikeouts in his last three postseason games.

World Series Game 4

Buchholz is 1-1, 4.85 in his last five starts, over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Boston won 16 of his 19 starts this season, scoring eight runs in the three losses. This is his first start in eight days.

Lynn hasn't pitched in 12 days; he is 3-1, 2.91 in his last six starts. Since June 26, Cardinals are 8-12 when Lynn starts (3-1 in last four).

Boston is 5-3 in its last eight games, but lost last two because of errant throws to third base; they're 3-3 on road in playoffs.

St Louis won eight of last 11 games; they've allowed 13 runs in their nine postseason wins, 29 in five losses. Cardinals are 13-1 in their last 14 games at home- four of their last five games went over the total.

Armadillosports.com

StatFox Super Situations

MLB BOSTON at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road teams (BOSTON) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start 331-199 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.5% 94.3 units ) 80-59 this year. ( 57.6% 9.2 units )

World Series Game 4 Odds and Pick
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

It's only Game 4 of the World Series (8:07 p.m. ET, FOX) with lots of drama to come. However, due to the obstruction call on Will Middlebrooks in the bottom of the ninth in Saturday's Game 3 that gave the Cardinals a 5-4 win, this series has already reached historical proportions that we'll be discussing for years to come regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

The Cardinals now lead 2-1, and if they win tonight, history shows that the series is almost over as only five teams being down 3-1 have come back to win the World Series. The last team to pull off the feat was the 1985 Royals against Whitey Herzog's speedy Cardinals.

Boston opened as a -140 favorite to win the series and that has now been adjusted at the LVH SuperBook to St. Louis -240. If thinking Clay Buchholz and the Red Sox can step up tonight to even the series, then a play on Boston to win it all at +200 would be a worthy investment.

However, many members of Red Sox Nation are lacking confidence just because Buchholz has looked like a deer in headlights anytime he's talked about his Game 4 start. His velocity is down and he is nowhere near what he was in the first half of the season when he started 9-0. While you have to give him credit for at least wanting to pitch, you also have to question manager John Farrell, again, for another debatable decision.

We already saw Buchholz try to nibble around the plate with his dead arm in the playoffs, and he gave up 10 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings over three starts. The Red Sox went 2-1 in those games, but Buchholz didn't stick around long enough to get the win. And now Buchholz is already talking about going only “five innings and giving up two” in this one.

What? Who says that? How can a pitcher starting in one of the biggest games of his life with his team needing a big effort out of him to stay alive already concede two runs?

Maybe this is more about Farrell, the Sox's former pitching coach, who made an immediate impact with Buchholz and Jon Lester in spring training after both struggled last season. Maybe Farrell is being too loyal and wants to believe Buchholz is fine, or feels he owes him a start in the World Series.

Left-hander Felix Doubront probably should have been the Game 4 starter, not only because of Buchholz, but because the Cardinals had a terrible time against lefties this season, batting only .238. That mark was fourth worst in the majors and posted by a Cardinals squad that led the NL in hitting. Also, the left-handed Lester mowed them down, 8-1, in Game 1. Doesn't the legendary baseball stat guru Bill James work for the Red Sox?

But using Doubront to start is now out of the question because he came in to relieve last night. While we're piling on Farrell right now, we might as well bring up his failure to get Mike Napoli into the game last night. The top of the ninth inning of a 4-4 game with one out would have been a good spot for a player that could make it 5-4 with one swing, but Farrell chose to bat reliever Brandon Workman, who had never hit in his pro career, and then took him out after only one out in the bottom of the ninth.

Game 4 Starters: Clay Buchholz (12-1, 2.23 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (17-11, 4.05 ERA)

Game 4 Price: Cardinals -113, Total: 7.5 UN -115

Series Price: Cardinals -240, Red Sox +200 (BOS opened-140)

We always hear American League managers say there is no difference between managing in the different leagues, but Game 3 was proof that the National League goes at a much faster pace with more consequences placed on every decision. If the Red Sox don't win this series, the Boston newspapers will second guess the first-year skipper all winter long.

But this thing is a long way from being over because the Cardinals will be going with Lance Lynn, who is the -113 favorite tonight. Lynn pitched well against the Dodgers in the NLCS, picking up wins in Games 1 and 4 as a reliever and starter, respectively. But he's got a lot of baggage in his postseason closet as a starter, which began last season when he gave up four earned runs (eight total) in two starts against the Giants in the NLCS and failed to get out of the fourth inning in each. Then in the NLDS this year, he gave up five runs to the Pirates and lasted only 4 1/3 innings.

His win against the Dodgers 12 days ago can have a small asterisk put next to it because the Dodgers weren't 100 percent with their best player, Hanley Ramirez, jacked up from getting hit in the ribs by a Joe Kelly pitch in Game 1. Regardless, a win is a win, but he walked three and gave up six hits in 5 1/3 innings.

Tonight's game is basically a coin flip, but if rooting for one side to come up with actual money on the line, we'd hope the coin lands Red Sox. We don't like Buchholz and we're not keen on Lynn, either, which probably makes the best play in this game to go with both teams getting OVER 7.5 total runs scored.

Buchholz might be able to dance around the plate for a while, but he's right, he probably will give up two runs, maybe more. The Lance Lynn matchup against the Boston lineup looks to be another playoff battle Lynn will lose. Once the starters are out of the game, it'll be up to the bullpens with already five to six total runs in the bag.

We'll side OVER in this one with a very small lean to Boston.