Sunday's MLB NLDS Betting: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-153, 6.5)
Series tied 1-1.
The Pittsburgh Pirates wrested home-field advantage from the St. Louis Cardinals and will look to get a leg up in the National League Division series when they host Game 3 of the best-of-five series Sunday afternoon. The Pirates earned a split in St. Louis and have the luxury of turning to ace Francisco Liriano, who won all three starts against the Cardinals this season in dominant fashion. Liriano also has not lost at home since June 1.
St. Louis followed up a crisp 9-1 victory in Game 1 with a ragged performance in Friday's 7-1 defeat, prompting center fielder Jon Jay to call Sunday's game a "must-win." The Cardinals have not fared well in Pittsburgh this season, losing seven of 10 while batting .227 with zero home runs. Third baseman David Freese dismissed any past history, saying, “People talk about momentum. It all starts over the following day.”
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02)
Kelly was inserted into the rotation in early July and won his first eight decisions en route to going 10-2 as a starter. Although he went 2-2 in his last four starts of the season, Kelly beat the Pirates three times in the last two months, allowing a total of two runs over 18 innings. He was 5-1 with a 1.08 in seven road starts, including two victories at Pittsburgh.
Liriano was nearly unbeatable at PNC Park, logging an 8-1 record and 1.47 ERA in 11 home starts - and the loss was a 2-0 defeat in which he struck out 11. He was overpowering in his three turns against the Cardinals, giving up only two runs and 10 hits in 24 innings for a microscopic 0.75 ERA. Liriano also beat Cincinnati in the wild card round with seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Cardinals are 9-2 in Kelly's last 11 starts.
* Pirates are 13-6 in Liriano's last 19 starts.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Pirates C Russell Martin is 3-for-4 with a homer against Kelly.
2. Cardinals LF Matt Holliday is 3-for-8 this season against Liriano, who held St. Louis to a .127 batting average.
3. Pirates 3B Pedro Alvarez became the first player in franchise history to homer in the first two games of a postseason series.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 6.5)
Series tied 1-1.
Los Angeles shortstop Hanley Ramirez seeks a little help from his teammates when the Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves in Sunday’s Game 3 of the National League Division Series. Ramirez homered, doubled twice and drove in all three runs in a Game 2 loss that saw Atlanta even up the series at a game apiece. The Braves had just six hits but turned three double plays in Friday’s 4-3 victory.
Ramirez enjoyed a strong second half and has continued his hot hitting into the postseason. “We’ve got to do a better job with guys in scoring position because everything counts in the playoffs,” Ramirez said after the Game 2 loss. “Every play, every pitch. It just wasn’t our night but we know we can bounce back.” Braves outfielder Jason Heyward had a key two-run single in Friday’s game. “Every night in the postseason is a must-win game for us,” Heyward said. “You don’t want to ever think it’s OK to lose.”
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with wind blowing out to right field at 7 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00)
Teheran didn’t face the Dodgers in the regular season and is making his first career postseason start. He had a 4.44 ERA in September despite going 3-1 and allowed four runs in two of his last three starts. Teheran went 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 road starts.
Ryu had a 1-3 record in September while pitching well with a 2.88 ERA. He started twice against the Braves this season, receiving no-decisions both times and sporting a 2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Ryu went 7-4 with a 2.32 ERA in 15 home outings.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 5-0-2 in John Hirschbeck's last seven games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
* Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's last six road starts.
* Dodgers are 1-4 in Ryu's last five starts as a favorite.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Ramirez is 4-for-9 in the series and all the hits have been for extra bases.
2. Braves OF B.J. Upton has been demoted to a bench role and has struck out in both at-bats over the first two games.
3. Dodgers RHP Brian Wilson tossed a scoreless inning in each game and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 11 appearances.
ATLANTA (97 - 67) at LA DODGERS (93 - 71) - 8:05 PM
JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 39-53 (-34.0 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 30-39 (-22.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 93-71 (+5.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 67-43 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 97-67 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 96-66 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ATLANTA is 115-76 (+17.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 32-20 (+11.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-3 (+2.8 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.2 Units)
JULIO TEHERAN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.
HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ATLANTA since 1997
RYU is 0-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.342.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
ST LOUIS (98 - 66) at PITTSBURGH (96 - 69) - 4:35 PM
JOE KELLY (R) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 20-23 (-10.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 72-76 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 96-69 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 51-31 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 17-5 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 47-32 (+14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
PITTSBURGH is 96-69 (+24.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 78-56 (+21.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PITTSBURGH is 54-41 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
PITTSBURGH is 38-33 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 98-66 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 34-19 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 98-66 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 46-20 (+21.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
KELLY is 14-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 39-45 (-32.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 11-10 (+2.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
14 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+8.0 Units)
JOE KELLY vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
KELLY is 3-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.522.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)
FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LIRIANO is 4-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.16 and a WHIP of 0.677.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
St. Louis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis
ATLANTA vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Dodgers's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Teheran: ATLANTA is 46-35 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
Ryu: LA DODGERS are 14-20 SU after a loss by 2 runs or less
St Louis at Pittsburgh
Kelly: 14-4 TSR after a loss
Liriano: PITTSBURGH is 55-36 UNDER in home games after a win
Pirates - Cardinals
Liriano is 3-0, 1.13 against the Cardinals this season; he is 2-1, 2.81 in his last five starts overall; he was 8-1, 1.47 in 11 home starts, on the road he was 8-7, 4.33 in 15 starts.
Kelly is 5-1, 1.73 in his last seven road starts; he was 3-0, 1.00 in three starts vs Pittsburgh this year, but also gave up four runs in 3.1 IP in three relief stints vs the Pirates. Over is 4-1-1 in his last six starts.
Pirates won seven of their last nine games; they are 11-10 vs St Louis this year, but lost five of last six meetings, allowing 43 runs. Four of their last five games went over total. Cardinals are just 19-23 vs lefty starters, but won seven of their last eight games overall, outscoring opponents 37-14.
Dodgers - Braves
Teheran is 4-1, 3.82 in his last five starts; seven of his last nine starts stayed under the total. He didn't pitch against the Dodgers this year.
Korean vet/big league rookie Ryu is 2-5, 3.30 in his last seven starts- Dodgers scored total of five runs in his last four starts. Five of his last six starts stayed under the total. Ryu is 0-0, 2.13 in two starts against the Braves.
Dodgers lost five of last seven games with seven of last eleven games staying under the total. Five of last six Atlanta games went over the total. Braves are 25-17 vs lefty SPs, 6-3 against Dodgers this year, but 3-0 home sweep in May was before Puig came to big leagues.
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StatFox Super Situations
MLB ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PITTSBURGH) with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), in October games 27-14 since 1997. ( 65.9% 22.0 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
ST LOUIS is 46-20 (+21.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. The average score was: ST LOUIS (5.3) , OPPONENT (3.5)