MLB Betting News and Notes Sunday, September 10th, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Brewers @ Cubs
Davies is 3-2, 1.95 in his last five starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten. He is 1-2, 5.00 vs Chicago this season. Milwaukee is 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-9-5

Hendricks is 2-0, 2.51 in his last five starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 1-0, 5.06 in three starts vs Milwaukee this year. Cubs are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-3

Milwaukee lost three of its last five games but won last two; under is 13-3-3 in their last 19 road games. Cubs lost five of last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine.

Phillies @ Nationals
Lively is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Phillies are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-1

Cole is 1-2, 3.18 in his last three starts (under 4-0-2). Washington is 0-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4

Phillies lost five of last seven games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Washington won six of its last eight games; over is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Reds @ Mets
Romano is 2-1, 2.81 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Reds are 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

deGrom is 2-6, 5.55 in his last eight starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Mets are 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-11-1

Reds lost their last five road games; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Mets won six of last seven games; over is 8-4-2 in their last 14 games.

Marlins @ Braves
Despaigne is 0-3, 5.40 in his four starts this year, last three of which stayed under. Miami lost his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1

Dickey is 1-2, 5.92 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. He is 1-1, 4.15 vs Miami this season. Braves are 10-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-4

Marlins lost 11 of last 13 games; under is 6-4-1 in their last 11. Atlanta lost six of last nine games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Nova is 1-4, 7.96 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. He is 1-1, 3.29 vs St Louis this season. Pirates lost his last six true road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-15-1

Wacha is 2-0, 3.75 in his last two starts; over is 5-1 in his last six starts. He is 1-1, 6.10 vs Pittsburgh this season. Cardinals are 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-4

Pirates lost their last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Cardinals won seven of last nine games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Padres @ Diamondbacks
Perdomo is 1-1, 3.00 in his last three starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten starts. He is 0-2, 15.96 vs Arizona this year. Padres are 3-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-4

Ray is 3-0, 0.92 in his last three starts; over is 7-3-2 in his last 12 starts. He is 2-0, 0.63 vs San Diego this season. Arizona is 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-7

San Diego won eight of last 11 games; under is 4-3 in their last seven games. Arizona won 13 of its last 15 games but lost last two; over is 5-0-1 in their last six home games.

Rockies @ Dodgers
This is a bullpen game for the Rockies. Chatwood is 0-5, 9.12 in his last six starts, last three of which went over. He is 0-2, 10.13 against the Dodgers this season. Colorado is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-1

Hill is 0-3, 4.34 in his last three starts; three of his last four starts went over. Dodgers are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him:10-8-4

Colorado won five of its last six games; under is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Dodgers lost 14 of their last 15 games; over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

American League

Tigers @ Blue Jays
Sanchez is 0-2, 13.89 in his last four starts; over is 5-1 in his last six. Detroit is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1

Happ is 1-2, 5.56 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Toronto is 4-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-1

Tigers lost seven of last nine games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games. Toronto lost six of last eight home games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Rays @ Red Sox
Cobb is 1-3, 4.68 in his last five starts; under is 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts. He is 2-0, 3.79 in three starts vs Boston this season. Tampa Bay is 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-9-3

Porcello is 1-2, 10.26 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 1-3, 5.92 against the Rays this season. Boston is 7-10 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-18-3

Tampa Bay lost its last four road games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Red Sox are 8-4 in their last 12 games; under is 9-5 in their last 14 games.

Orioles @ Indians
Hellickson is 1-3, 9.40 in his last six starts, last five of which went over. Orioles are 1-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Bauer is 8-0, 2.50 in his last nine starts; under is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts. Cleveland is 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-8-3

Orioles lost four of last five games; three of their last five games went over. Cleveland won its last 17 games; under is 12-4 in their last 16 home games.

New York @ Texas
Montgomery is 0-2, 5.40 in his last six starts, last three of which went over. New York is 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-11-3

Griffin is 0-2, 5.14 in his last three starts; over is 7-2-2 in his last 11 starts. Texas is 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6

New York won five of last seven games; seven of their last eight road games went over. Texas won seven of last 11 games; over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games.

Twins @ Royals
Colon is 2-1, 3.55 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Twins are 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-4-1

Vargas is 0-4, 10.19 in his last four starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine. Royals are 8-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-12-2

Twins won three of their last four games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Royals lost three of last five games (over 6-3).

Astros @ A’s
Keuchel is 3-1, 3.15 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six road starts. He is 3-0, 0.83 vs Oakland this year. Astros are 8-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

Graveman is 1-1, 4.70 in his last four starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. Oakland is 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-5-5

Astros lost their last three games (over 3-0). Oakland won its last four games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 games.

Angels @ Mariners
Bridwell is 0-1, 9.50 in his last four starts; under is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. He is 1-1, 4.50 vs Seattle this season. Angels are 7-0 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-3-3

Ramirez is 0-1, 3.50 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle is 0-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3

Angels lost their last three games, all of which stayed under. Seattle lost three of its last five games (under 5-0).

Interleague

Giants @ White Sox
Bumgarner is 0-2, 3.79 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Giants are 1-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-7-4

Fulmer allowed six runs in 1.1 IP in his only ’17 start, a 10-2 loss to the Twins. Chicago’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-1

Giants are 4-11 in their last 15 games; under is 12-7 in their last 19 games. White Sox lost nine of last 12 games; under is 10-5 in their last 15 home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

Mil-Chi: Davies 18-11; Hendricks 10-10
Phil-Wsh: Lively 4-7; Cole 2-4
Cin-NY: Romano 5-7; deGrom 16-12
Mia-Atl: Despaigne 1-3; Dickey 14-13
Pitt-StL: Nova 13-14; Wacha 13-13
SD-Az: Perdomo 11-14; Ray 15-8
Colo-LA: Chatwood 8-13; Hill 12-9

American League
Det-Tor: Sanchez 6-6; Happ 8-13
TB-Bos: Cobb 13-13; Porcello 13-16
Balt-Clev: Hellickson 4-3; Bauer 16-11
NY-Tex: Montgomery 10-15; Griffin 8-6
Minn-KC: Colon 5-5; Vargas 16-11
Hst-A’s: Keuchel 14-5; Graveman 6-9
LA-Sea: Bridwell 13-2; Ramirez 3-4

Interleague
SF-Chi: Bumgarner 3-11; Fulmer 0-1

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Mil-Chi: Davies 8-29; Hendricks 7-20
Phil-Wsh: Lively 4-11; Cole 3-6
Cin-NY: Romano 4-12; deGrom 8-28
Mia-Atl: Despaigne 1-4; Dickey 7-27
Pitt-StL: Nova 9-27; Wacha 4-26
SD-Az: Perdomo 9-25; Ray 8-23
Colo-LA: Chatwood 5-21; Hill 6-21

American League
Det-Tor: Sanchez 2-12; Happ 4-21
TB-Bos: Cobb 4-26; Porcello 9-29
Balt-Clev: Hellickson 1-7; Bauer 10-27
NY-Tex: Montgomery 7-25; Griffin 3-14
Minn-KC: Colon 1-10; Vargas 6-27
Hst-A’s: Keuchel 5-19; Graveman 8-15
LA-Sea: Bridwell 2-15; Ramirez 2-7

Interleague
SF-Chi: Bumgarner 3-14; Fulmer 0-1

Umpires

National League
Mil-Chi: Over is 8-4-1 in last 13 Conroy games.
Phil-Wsh: Five of last seven Barber games went over.
Cin-NY: Home team won all five Livensparger games this year.
Mia-Atl: Over is 4-2-2 in last eight Winters games.
Pitt-StL: Underdogs are 10-2 in last 12 Blaser games.
SD-Az: Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Woodring games.
Colo-LA: Three of last four Wegner games went over.

American League
Det-Tor: Under is 6-4 in Ortiz games this season.
TB-Bos: Under is 9-5 in last fourteen O’Nora games.
Balt-Clev: Six of last eight Torres games stayed under.
NY-Tex: Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Gonzalez games.
Minn-KC: Last three Porter games went over the total.
Hst-A’s: Under is 6-3-1 in last ten DeJesus games.
LA-Sea: Under is 4-0-1 in last five Additon games.

Interleague
SF-Chi: Four of last six Cooper games stayed under.

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 80-56 AL, favorites -$46
AL @ NL– 72-67 NL, favorites +$35
Total: 147-128 AL, favorites -$11

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 69-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 74-59-7
Total: Over 143-125-10

Armadillosports.com

MLB Betting Picks & Tips
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (-170); Total: 8.5

Basically, what we’re going to do today is look for underdog spots that are intriguing. We’ve got one in St. Louis between the Pirates and the Cardinals. Even though the Pirates are a team that has made Wild Card Game appearances recently, they don’t strike me as the type of team to pack it all away because the playoffs aren’t happening this season. Some teams do get into that mindset after experiencing high levels of success, but the Pirates have the ability to directly impact the two remaining playoff races in the NL Central and have some young guys looking for playing time next season. They also have some veterans that have battled injuries or suspensions and want to finish on a high note.

On Sunday, Ivan Nova takes the ball against Michael Wacha. Nova has been going in the wrong direction for a while now. The right-hander has a 4.11/4.42/4.12 pitcher slash on the season. His low strikeout rate finally caught up with him and so did some of his other peripherals. Nova has a similar HR/FB% to last season, but he’s allowed more fly balls this season, so his home run rate has gone up.

Since the All-Star Break, Nova has a 6.38 ERA with a 5.16 FIP and a 3.98 xFIP. His command is completely gone, with 68 hits allowed in 48 innings of work and 11 of those hits have left the ballpark. What’s odd is that Nova actually has 47 strikeouts across those nine starts, so he’s getting more swings and misses than he did in the first half, but he’s having absolutely no batted ball luck. His LOB% is also 62.7 percent with the lack of command. It seems like this is a negative extreme for Nova. I’m wondering if there’s a little bit of positive regression ready to creep in over his last few starts. He’s had some extra rest to work on some things and hasn’t pitched since August 30. I like that element here because Nova went from Tommy John in 2014 to the rehab and a shortened season in 2015. In 2016, he threw over 160 innings for the first time since 2012 and has followed it up with another decent workload this year. The rest should do him good.

Michael Wacha has also been going in the wrong direction for a while. Wacha has a 4.21 ERA with a 3.81 FIP and a 3.90 xFIP. Since August 8, Wacha has a 6.23 ERA with a 5.02 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP. He’s only struck out 22 and has walked 12 in 30.1 innings of work. Wacha is a guy with a history of battling shoulder problems, so that always has to be a consideration in the back of your mind. Wacha isn’t giving up home runs to the level that Nova has, but his command has also been a problem with a .360 BABIP against and five HR allowed over his last six starts.

The Cardinals should be favored, but this -170 price tag is a bit steep given the way that Wacha has been pitching. A +160 line implies a 38.5 percent probability for the Pirates. I think this is a 60/40 game on the low end, so there’s a bit of value in this number. Take the dog.

Milwaukee at Chicago (-160)

The lines are kind of all over the market, with the public books a bit higher and the sharper books around -160 for the series finale between the Brewers and the Cubs. The Brewers got a bit of bad news yesterday with the announcement that Jimmy Nelson was done from an injury suffered while having to do something pitchers shouldn’t have to do. They also lost Chase Anderson in a similar manner. The NL needs the DH.

But, that’s not what we’re here to discuss. The Brewers will send Zach Davies to the hill and the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks. Davies has gotten back his command and is all of the sudden putting together a great season. Davies has a 3.77 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP. His peripherals have all fallen back into normal ranges. He doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats, but he stays off the barrel and has made the necessary adjustments to get back on track this season.

There have been a couple of rocky outings, but Davies has a 2.37 ERA with a 3.15 FIP and a 4.20 xFIP over his last 91 innings covering 14 starts. Davies has only allowed three home runs over his last 91 innings. Given the current hitting environment in Major League Baseball, a home run rate like that is a saving grace to say the least. It’s a sign of how good Davies can be when his command is on point. He simply gets hitters to swing at his pitch and they can’t do anything with it. It’s a really interesting profile and it works for him.

Kyle Hendricks is doing similar things with a similar profile. Hendricks has a 3.29 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP. Since coming off the DL on July 24, Hendricks has a 2.36 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. He misses more bats than Davies, so maybe some will look at his numbers as more sustainable. One thing that does worry me in this spot is that Hendricks has an 88.3 percent LOB% over his last 53.1 innings of work. That’s an area where I would look for regression. While Davies is doing this, his LOB% is in the reasonable 74-75 percent range. Hendricks’s is not. It’s nowhere close.

The Brewers are worth a gamble today in my estimation. Like I said, we’re just looking at underdog spots to consider today because there are some big lines out there and Sunday day games are tougher in September.

Los Angeles at Seattle (-125); Total: 9.5

The market is fading Parker Bridwell again. I get it. Even with two straight subpar outings, Bridwell has a 4.00 ERA with a 4.83 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. Bridwell isn’t the type of guy that inspires a ton of confidence in the betting markets. He has a low strikeout rate and doesn’t have the command of guys like Davies or Hendricks. You can see that with his 15 HR allowed in 90 innings of work.

That being said, I don’t see a reason for the line to be climbing on the Mariners and Erasmo Ramirez. In seven starts with the Mariners, Ramirez has a 3.52 ERA with a 5.49 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP. That’s a lot of built-in regression as well. Ramirez’s ERA is a full run lower than his xFIP, even though he has allowed nine HR in 38.1 innings with a HR/FB% of 19.1 percent. Remember that xFIP is a run metric that assumes a league average HR/FB%. Well, the league average is not 19.1 percent.

I like the Angels here today. Bridwell is an extreme fly ball guy that simply got rocked by an Oakland team that has actively tried to hit fly balls all season long. This is a better matchup for him and it should show.

Indians host Orioles
By: StatFox.com

The Orioles will be hoping to end this road series against the Indians with a win on Sunday.

The Orioles are still lurking in the American League playoff picture, as they are in a good position to earn themselves the second spot in the wild card game. Baltimore was just a few games back heading into the weekend and has played some good baseball since the All-Star break. The team does, however, have to now beat an Indians team that has been one of the best in baseball this year. Cleveland is absolutely scorching right now and will want to end this series with a convincing victory on national television. The edge on the mound on paper here goes to the Indians, who have RHP Trevor Bauer (15-8, 4.39 ERA, 170 K) looking to outduel RHP Jeremy Hellickson (8-8, 5.26 ERA, 88 K). Bauer has really turned it on as of late for Cleveland, but Hellickson has been a disaster for Baltimore since being traded there. He could, however, make a lot of people forget about his recent struggles by turning in a good start here.

The Orioles are going to be desperate for a victory on Sunday, but they’ll need a solid outing out of Jeremy Hellickson here. The righty has been awful as of late, as he only lasted 2.1 innings against the Yankees on Sep. 5 and had allowed six or more earned runs in three of his previous four starts. The one thing Hellickson has going for him is the fact that he has been a bit better on the road this year. He is 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA on the road, which is a lot better than the 5.91 ERA he has when pitching in front of his own fans. On offense, one guy that could be ready to produce for Baltimore is 3B Manny Machado. After a nightmarish start to the regular season, Machado has looked like his old self as of late. He now faces Trevor Bauer, who he is 6-for-9 with three homers and four RBI against in his career. It’s hard to imagine him not doing something in this one. OF Mark Trumbo could also come through, as he is 3-for-8 with a homer and three RBI against Bauer.

Trevor Bauer is coming off of two very good starts in a row, as he has now allowed just three earned runs in his past 12.1 innings of work. Bauer’s most recent start was particularly impressive, as he allowed only two earned runs and struck out nine batters in a 5-3 victory over the White Sox in Chicago. If he can give the Indians another six or so solid innings then that would be big. Bauer has had his ups and downs this year, but he is a talented pitcher and has had plenty of success in this league. As for Bauer’s run support, DH Edwin Encarnacion is a name to watch out for here. The slugger is 10-for-37 with two homers and four RBI against Hellickson in his career and could easily come through at the plate in this one.