Thursday's Best MLB Bets
Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-320, 7.5)
If you were hoping you might get a bit of a discount on a Phillies bet Thursday after they clinched a playoff berth a day before, tough luck.
After the Phils became the fastest team to clinch a playoff spot in MLB history (146 games) oddsmakers opened with Philadelphia set around -320 with Cliff Lee sharing the mound with Florida’s Alex Sanabia and they probably have it right.
The Phillies aren’t the kind of team to let up after clinching – that was a long time coming and they’ve been here before.
Plus, even though they’re headed to the postseason for sure, they still have a division to win and do happen to have another NL Cy Young award contender taking the ball.
All that said, you know how we do around here and there’s no way we’ll jump at -320. Instead, give us the under.
Pick: Under
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (-125, 9)
You think that after all Ryan Vogelsong has been through and everything he’s done for the Giants this season, that they’d scratch together a few runs for the guy.
Vogelsong, who has thrown more innings for the team than anybody has since 2003, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six starts and still the team has won just one of those outings. Oh, and that was back in mid-August.
Considering Vogelsong’s long road back to the bigs, he isn’t taking anything for granted.
"I definitely feed off of them," he told reporters of his fellow starters. "It's not like I want to match them or be better than them; I just don't want to be the weak link. I don't want to be the guy who's not producing. That mentality is what drives me between starts to work hard."
If you haven’t noticed, we like the cut of his jib.
Pick: Giants
Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking
Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs (7-4, 4.73 ERA)
Wells is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA since Aug. 1 and has allowed just four earned runs over his last four starts. The veteran gave up just two runs over seven innings in his last outing against the New York Mets, but took a no-decision in a 5-4 Cubs victory. That was the sixth straight time the Cubs won a Wells start.
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (16-7, 2.44 ERA)
Lee’s scoreless streak ended at 30 2/3 innings last weekend during a 3-2 win over Milwaukee, but he’s still in the middle of the NL Cy Young race. He gave up just one run over seven innings in that start and has struck out at least six batters in each of his last eight trips to the hill while serving up just two homers over that stretch.
Slumping
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians (6-14, 5.18 ERA)
Carmona hasn’t picked up a win since mid-August and is working on a fat 2.13 WHIP and 9.24 ERA over his last three trips to the hill. After getting drilled for seven runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work against Detroit earlier this month, the good news is that he rebounded to hold the White Sox to three runs over 5 1/3 innings in a 7-3 loss in his last start.
Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox (11-8, 3.58 ERA)
Buehrle allowed four runs in a start just once from the end of April until the calendar turned to September, but now it seems like the wheels have fallen off. He has given up seven runs in each of his two outings this month which spanned just nine innings. The Indian roughed him up in an 8-4 win over the BoSox that saw them take Buehrle deep twice.
Boston Red Sox Begin Series With Rays
By: Bruce Marshall
A recent surge by the Tampa Bay Rays, combined with a slump by the Boston Red Sox, has injected some life into what seemed to be a mundane American League wild card race.
After last weekend’s sweep of the BoSox Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay brings lots of confidence into this weekend’s four-game set at Fenway Park, which begins Thursday night. First pitch is scheduled at 7:10 p.m. (ET).
The early send-out pricing on the matchup sees Tampa Bay and Jeremy Hellickson at -120 over the Red Sox and Notre Dame alum Kyle Weiland, priced at even money. The total started at 9 ½.
Conventional wisdom suggests that the Rays, who had pulled to within four games of the Red Sox entering Wednesday action, need to win at least three of the four clashes this weekend in Beantown to stay in the wild card picture. Prior to Wednesday’s matchup at Baltimore, Tampa Bay had won five of six and eight of 10, including that sweep of the BoSox in St. Pete last weekend when bludgeoning Terry Francona’s pitching staff by scoring 22 runs in the three wins.
Francona gambles in Thursday’s series opener by starting the little-used Kyle Weiland, who was ineffective last Saturday vs. the Rays when allowing three runs, six hits and three walks in just four innings of work in an eventual 6-5 defeat. The Red Sox offense had also been slumping prior to erupting for 18 runs in Tuesday’s win over the visiting Blue Jays, and had scored two runs or fewer on four different occasions in September prior to Wednesday’s game vs. Toronto.
Meanwhile, Francona’s opposite number Joe Maddon figures to have more confidence in Hellickson, who was more effective than Weiland in that Saturday matchup. The rookie allowed only five hits over his six innings of work in the win. Hellickson’s recent efforts offer plenty of reason for encouragement, including an ERA of 2.00 over his last five starts.
It’s worth noting that Hellickson has lost twice in those last five starts, but it was hardly his fault, with the Rays blanked on both of those occasions vs. the playoff-bound Rangers and Tigers.
Hellickson’s stat line for this season against Boston suggests he might be up to the challenge at Fenway. He’s allowed only 14 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work in three previous starts vs. the Red Sox, with the Rays winning two of those matchups, including a 16-5 rout back on April 11.
Indeed, in Hellickson’s 14 starts since June 10, he’s allowed over three runs just once. Over the entire season, Hellickson’s stats include impressive ERA (2.96), WHIP (1.14) and OBA (.214) numbers.
Also worth considering is Tampa Bay’s prowess on the road, where it has offered better value than at The Trop this season. The Rays have provided good return as a visitor this campaign, with a 40-32 mark and an impressive 9.96 units. Meanwhile, the BoSox, often overpriced, have provided far less value at Fenway where they’re -4.88 units in 2011.
There is a good chance of showers during the day but they should taper off towards game time. It will be a little on the cool side in Boston with temps dropping into the 50s and a 12-15 mph WNW wind (3B out towards Pesky's Pole).