MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, April 10

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox

When the Cleveland Indians head to the south side of Chicago to take on the White Sox in the first of this four game set they'll do so with conditions on their side. Tribe have won 11-of-12 meetings on Chicago's home field. The clincher, White Sox are handing the ball to lefty John Danks. Tribe have won five straight and 7-of-8 when Pale Hose had the ball to the southpaw in Chicago. A good situation like this and knowing Tribe are ridding a 20-7 stretch vs a left-handed starter Cleveland is the play.

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

Bryce Harper finally hit his first home run of the season Wednesday in the Nationals' 10-7 home win against the Marlins -- after admitting his lack of hitting to start the season was affecting him. Despite the young slugger possibly shaking the cobwebs, Stephen Strasburg is way overpriced to back this afternoon (4:05 p.m. ET). The Nationals are -220 behind Strasburg today, so get the value play on the Marlins at +200 while you can.

Just as spring training was ending, we identified a few pitchers who should be counted to fare well based on their spring performances and today’s starter for the Marlins, Tom Koehler, was one of them. To refresh, Koehler had five outings this spring, allowing only three runs in 18 innings (1.50 ERA) and opposing batters hit only .194 against him.

In Koehler’s first regular-season outing against the Padres on Friday (pick 'em), he went six innings and allowed two runs in the Marlins' 8-2 win. Granted, the Padres have been a little challenged in the runs department this season with only 20, the second-lowest in baseball, but the big righthander has a little bit of confidence going for him. No one has roughed him up yet in 2014 -- at any ballpark.

You can add a premium onto today’s price with the NL East-leading Nationals (6-2) just because they’ve won three straight while the Marlins (5-4) have lost three in a row. From the first days I started writing tickets on the games, the sharpest baseball players always told me the best trend to watch for was the scenario we’re looking at today, and to ride the team with the winning streak.

However, there weren’t many of those situations where wise guys were running to the windows to bet a streaking -220 favorite behind a pitcher who hasn’t fooled anyone in his two previous starts. Strasburg lasted only 4.1 innings on Saturday against the Braves and gave up six runs (three earned), which is still the most runs in any game that the light-hitting Braves have scored.

If you go back to last April, you’ll see that the Nationals went 1-5 behind Strasburg even though he pitched well. He’s a tough-luck pitcher and that doesn’t seem to be factored into the price. So, between the Marlins showing some offense this season (sixth-best .276 average, fourth-most runs with 42), Koehler feeling confident and Strasburg losing consistently even when he has great stuff, -220 is simply too high. Let’s roll with Miami to have some more April fun before reality sets in.

Giant Bats

San Francisco has gone OVER the total in the past five games and seven of the first eight. In tonight’s home game against Arizona, both bullpens should be warming up by the third inning with Ryan Vogelsong and Randall Delgado starting for the Giants and D-backs, respectively. Both offenses rank among the top-eight in runs scored and both have been flying OVER the posted number.

Arizona has gone OVER in six of eight games, one of which Delgado started in Colorado last week that the Diamondbacks lost 12-2. Dating back to last season, Delgado’s past five starts have gone OVER, four of which Arizona lost. Because of such poor performances, he’s about to lose his job in the starting rotation to Josh Collmenter, which makes the added pressure on Delgado even more reason to expect a lot of runs. The guy already has enough pressure to throw strikes and get hitters out. Now he's got to pitch for his job?

Today’s number sits at 7.5 (OVER -115) and we expect at least nine. The bet is mainly because of Delgado, but Vogelsong should contribute plenty himself.

Thursday selections:

Marlins (Koehler) +200 at Nationals
Diamondbacks/Giants OVER 7.5 (-115)
Red Sox (Buchholz) +104 at Yankees

Game of the Day: Red Sox at Yankees
By Covers.com

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-106, 8.5)

Jacoby Ellsbury deserves a lot of credit for two World Series championships he earned while playing center field for the Boston Red Sox. But when Ellsbury takes the field against his former team for the start of a four-game series Thursday, it will be as a member of the rival New York Yankees. The star center fielder left the Red Sox as a free agent over the winter and signed a seven-year, $153 million contract with the Yankees while Boston patched the position.

Jackie Bradley Jr. and Grady Sizemore provided strong moments while sharing time in center field for the Red Sox, and Bradley is riding a hot streak with five hits, four RBIs and four runs scored in the last three games. Boston salvaged the rubber match of a three-game series with the Texas Rangers when David Ortiz blasted a three-run homer in the eighth inning Wednesday, improving the team to 4-5. The Yankees are off to the same 4-5 start and dropped their first home series Wednesday when the Baltimore Orioles pulled off a 5-4 win.

LINE HISTORY: New York opened as high as -115 and was bet down to as low as -105. The total moved from 8.5 (-115) to 8.5 (-110).

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Red Sox (-174.0), Yankees (-155)

INJURY REPORT: Boston - 1B M. Carp (Ques. - Back)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both of these rivals are off to inconsistent starts to the season, with neither able to settle into a real groove at the dish. I do feel the Red Sox are a slight favorite for a reason as Clay Buchholz should bounce back from a disastrous season debut while Michael Pineda is in line for some regression in his second start as a Yankee. The patient Sox lineup will make him work more than the Jays did last weekend." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The rivalry is renewed when the Red Sox make their first visit of the year to Yankee Stadium. Good pitching matchup in this game with the Red Sox sending Buchholz to mound while the Yankees have Pineda making the start. Yankees are a slight favorite and we are seeing good two-way action on this game." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (0-0, 12.46 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Michael Pineda (0-1, 1.50)

Buchholz nearly matched his total of one loss from last season before being bailed out by the offense in his first start Saturday. The 29-year-old was pounded for six runs on 13 hits in 4 1/3 innings by the Milwaukee Brewers and dealt with a fastball that topped out around 90 miles per hour. Buchholz went 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA and a .167 batting average against in three starts against New York in 2013.

Pineda made his first major-league start in 31 months Saturday and looked like he never left, striking out five and not walking a batter while allowing one run and five hits in six innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. The 25-year-old Dominican Republic native missed two full seasons while recovering from shoulder surgery but hit 95 with his fastball and retired 13 of the final 14 he faced. Pineda has only faced four hitters that figure to be in Boston’s lineup Thursday, and David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia and A.J. Pierzynski

TRENDS:

* Red Sox are 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Red Sox are 5-1 in the last six meetings in New York.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in Buchholzs last five road starts vs. Yankees.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 52 percent of bets are on Boston while 60 percent of bets are on Over 8.5 runs.

Red Sox, Yankees clash
By Sportsbook.ag

Boston Red Sox (4-5) at New York Yankees (4-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line Boston -110, New York +100, Total: 8.5

One of the biggest rivalries in sports opens its 2014 series on Thursday night when the Red Sox take on the Yankees in the Bronx.

Boston, the defending World Series champions, has had a rough start to this season, which included a sweep at home from the Brewers. The Sox were able to win their most recent three-game set though, taking two out of three against the Rangers while scoring only four runs per game. They clinched the series on Wednesday night as DH David Ortiz (.278) went yard with two men on base, helping the team to a 4-2 victory.

The Yankees have also had their struggles in the early going, winning their series against the Blue Jays, but losing to both Houston and most recently, the Orioles. They split the first two contests of the series and took a 3-3 tie going into the ninth inning where they felt the loss of injured closer David Robertson (groin) as Shawn Kelley allowed two runs and the Yanks lost 5-4 to Baltimore.

The Red Sox will look to RHP Clay Buchholz (0-0, 12.46 ERA) to face their rival for the first time this year, and he has a chip on his shoulder after a dreadful 2014 debut against Milwaukee. RHP Michael Pineda (0-1, 1.50 ERA) will counter Buchholz and pitched great in his first start of the year, but could not come away with a win, as his offense could not put a run on the board.

This matchup has obviously been quite exciting for plenty of years now and has been quite even recently, with the Yankees holding a 19-18 series lead since the start of 2012. Playing at home has not given New York too much of an advantage either, as the club is 10-9 at Yankee Stadium during this timeframe. Bettors should take notice that the Bombers are 58-32 (.644) as a favorite of -110 or higher since the beginning of last season, while Boston is 17-4 (.810) in all games when Buchholz is pitching since the start of the 2013 campaign.

Clay Buchholz started only 16 games last season but put together an incredible 12-1 record with a 1.74 ERA (1.02 WHIP) and a career-high 8.0 K/9. He did not start off this season with the same amount of success, allowing 13 hits and six runs over 4.1 innings while giving up two solo homers. His fastball velocity has dropped slightly over the past five seasons and his average fastball was less than 90 MPH in his start against the Brewers. Head Coach John Farrell says he has no fears with the velocity and that the right-hander's troubles were related to location, but it is still something that should be monitored.

Over his 12 career starts against the Yankees, Buchholz has gone 5-5 (5-7 team record) with a 5.32 ERA (1.60 WHIP), but has been absolutely tremendous over his past three outings. He is 3-0 in that time while allowing just 10 hits, two runs (1 ER) and striking out 11 (7 walks) in 18 innings. One of the newest Yankees, 2B Brian Roberts, could help change New York’s recent struggles against the righty as he has gone 10-for-25 (.400) with four walks and three RBI against him in his career. Meanwhile, OF Brett Gardener is only 2-for-17 (.118) in the matchup with three strikeouts.

Boston’s bullpen has been impressive so far with a 3.34 ERA while going 2-for-2 in save opportunities, and has not given up a run over 7.2 innings of relief work on the road. Closer Koji Uehara (0.00 ERA, 2 saves) has pitched three scoreless innings while striking out seven and walking none.

Michael Pineda has lost the last two seasons to injury after being traded to the Yankees back in 2012, but looks to have regained his velocity and showed great improvement in his 2014 debut against the Blue Jays. He went six strong innings, giving up just five hits and one run while striking out five Toronto batters with zero walks. His only start facing the Red Sox came back in 2011 when he was a member of the Mariners and it did not go too well. He lasted only 4.1 IP, giving up eight hits and seven runs with the team eventually losing 12-8.

Pineda has had very little experience against any of the Boston hitters but will need to tread carefully around OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (.400, 5 RBI), 1B Mike Napoli (.333, 2 HR, 8 RBI) and DH David Ortiz (.278, 2 HR, 8 RBI) who have all started out hot this season.

Outfielders Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes have yet to find their rhythm though, combining to go 8-for-55 (.145) with 18 strikeouts to start the year.

The Yankees’ relievers have been poor in their first time around without future Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera closing out games, and have a 4.81 ERA while saving all three of their opportunities. They were horrible in their three-game series against the Orioles, giving up nine runs in just 10 frames (8.10 ERA), including losing the game for New York on Wednesday night.

Original closer David Robertson has hit the DL with a groin injury and Shawn Kelley (0-1, 4.15 ERA, 1 save) has taken the job; going 1-for-1 in save opportunities but losing the game in the ninth for the Yankees Wednesday night in a tie game.

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