MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Mets @ Marlins
Gsellman allowed three runs in five IP (91 PT) in his first ’17 start an 8-1 loss to Miami.
Chen allowed one run in six IP (86 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-2 win in New York.
New York won their last four games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Miami won four of its last six games; over is 4-0-1 in its last five games.
Dodgers @ Cubs
Ryu allowed two runs in 4.2 IP (77 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 loss at Colorado.
Former Dodger Anderson allowed one run in 5.2 IP (90 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 loss at Milwaukee.
Dodgers lost three of last five games; six of their last eight games stayed under. Cubs won five of last seven games; over is 3-4-1 in their games this season.
Brewers @ Reds
Nelson allowed one run in six IP (93 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 2-1 win over the Cubs.
Arroyo allowed six runs in four IP (75 PT) inches first ’17 start, a 10-4 loss in St Louis.
Brewers won their first two road games, allowing total of three runs; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cincinnati won seven of last eight games; over is 2-0-3 in their last five games.
Rockies @ Giants
Gray is 0-0, 5.79 in his first two starts, both Colorado wins (over 1-1).
Bumgarner is 0-1, 3.00 in his first two starts, both SF losses (over 1-1).
Colorado lost three of last four games; under is 7-1 in their last eight. San Francisco lost six of its last eight games; under is 3-1-1 in its last five games.
American League
Twins @ Tigers
Hughes allowed one run in six IP (92 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 3-1 win in Chicago.
Zimmerman allowed one run in six IP (92 PT) in his first ’17, a 4-1 win over Boston.
Minnesota lost three of its last four games; their last six games stayed under. Detroit won six of its first eight games- three of their last four stayed under.
White Sox @ Indians
Gonzalez allowed two runs in six IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-2 win over the Twins.
Tomlin allowed six runs in 4.2 IP (81 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 7-3 loss at Arizona.
White Sox are 3-4 in their first seven games; their last five games stayed under. Indians lost four of last five games- their last three games stayed under.
Tampa Bay @ Bronx
Andariese allowed five runs in four IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 10-8 win over Toronto.
Severino allowed four runs in five IP (89 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-5 loss in Baltimore.
Rays won three of last five games; four of those five games went over. Bronx won its last three games after a 1-4 start- their last five games all went over.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Gausman is 0-0, 5.40 in his first two starts, both Baltimore wins (over 1-1).
Liriano got KO’d in first inning (allowed five runs) in his first ’17 start, a 10-8 loss in Tampa.
Orioles won five of their first seven games; four of their last five games went over. Toronto is off to a dreadful 1-7 start; under is 6-2 in those games.
A’s @ Royals
Hahn was 0-2, 9.56 in his last four starts LY; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
Vargas allowed one run in six IP (93 PT) in his firs ’17 start, a 5-1 win in Houston.
Oakland won three of its last four games; six of their nine games stayed under. Royals lost six of their first eight games (over 4-3-1).
Rangers @ Angels
Darvish is 0-1, 3.55 in his first two starts, both Texas losses (over 1-1).
Nolasco is 0-1, 3.86 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Texas lost five of their first eight games (over 5-3). Angels won six of their last eight games; their last four games went over.
Interleague
Pirates @ Red Sox
Kuhl allowed three runs in five IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 6-4 win over the Braves.
Rodriguez allowed four runs in five IP (80 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 4-1 loss in Detroit.
Pirates lost their last three games; over is 4-0-2 in their last six games. Boston lost four of their last six games; under is 3-1 in their home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
NY-Mia: Gsellman 0-1; Chen 1-0
LA-Chi: Ryu 0-1; Anderson 0-1
Mil-Cin: Nelson 1-0; Arroyo 0-1
Colo-SF: Gray 2-0; Bumgarner 0-2
American League
Chi-Clev: Gonzalez 1-0; Tomlin 0-1
Minn-Det: Hughes 1-0; Zimmerman 1-0
Tex-LAA: Darvish 0-2; Nolasco 1-1
TB-NY: Andriese 1-0; Severino 0-1
Balt-Tor: Gausman 2-0; Liriano 0-1
A’s-KC: Hahn 0-0; Vargas 1-0
Interleague
Pit-Bos: Kuhl 1-0; Rodriguez 0-1
Armadillosports.com
MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles open a four game set at the Rogers Centre Thursday evening. Blue Jays are favorites of -$117 to as high as -$130 depending on locale with a run total of 8.5 across all shops.
Blue Jays will trot out Francisco Liriano. The lefty is coming off one of the worst starts of his career as he allowed five runs over just one-third of an inning vs. Tampa Bay. Liriano's counterpart on the evening, Kevin Gausman is making his third start getting a no-decision in both efforts including an opening day affair vs Toronto giving up two runs on five hits with four walks over 5 1/3 innings.
Blue Jay's Liriano heads to the mound saddled with a 0-6 team start skid vs Baltimore. However, Toronto supporters can take comfort in knowing Orioles with Gausman have an 0-3 skid vs Jays north of the border. Additionally, this being a road opener for Orioles with Gausman serves as an alarm. In the last twelve such situations the result have been one cashed ticket, eleven tossed in the waste basket.
Dave's MLB Thursday
By Dave Essler
Miami/Mets: It's hard to back the Mets without Familia and of course David Wright is already on the DL. It's hard to fade Chen, period. Amazing Chen stat - he's allowed 73 HR's the last three years and only 7 of them to left handed hitters. He already beat the Mets this season, which sometimes is a recipe for the Mets to make corrections, but they've got too many to make, and in Miami I have think the Fish beat Gsellman, again.
Dodgers/Cubs: When Anderson is healthy/right he's not going to put extra men on base (limited walks) and he's going against a former team, a situation we like. Ryu hasn't pitched in Wrigley since 2013 and was hit pretty hard by what was obviously a lesser Chicago team. I have to like the Cubs here, and think it's a low scoring game.
Brewers/Reds: Nelson is clearly the Brewers best option and one has to wonder if the Reds are doing it with mirrors at this point. Arroyo was lit up at St. Louis last week and when he makes mistakes they tend to leave the park. This may be the wrong team at the wrong time in the wrong park. Both teams have been scoring - but both bullpens have been very good, so if this IS an over it's probably a better F5 over.
Colorado/Giants: Some overnight disrespect for Bumgarner and the Giants being bet down from -180 to -165 or thereabouts. That seems cheap but I am not going to overlook it. Colorado hasn't been hitting at all, and even though the Giants pen has been terrible, they shouldn't need much of it. It's a surprisingly low total and quite tempting to look at the over, but Gray is primarily a ground ball pitcher and we're in a big park. I have to think the Giants get this done, but a F5 bet might be smarter than leaving it to either bullpen.
White Sox/Indians: Yesterday I tweeted and mentioned here how poorly the Indians had been at the plate, then proceeded to take them AND the Blue Jays who are equally bad at the plate right now. So, and expensive lesson learned at the expense of a huge mental mistake. I'm not doing it again so it's the White Sox RL or pass. I do not understand the Indians with Santana hitting leadoff with little or no speed and far from a contact hitter.
Minnesota/Detroit: Before the Twins started so well and the Tigers did not, I'd have to think Detroit would be more than -150 here. Minnesota's staff has the best numbers in the Majors at the moment, and I'm not getting in their way. Hughes has been hit pretty hard by the Tigers and Zimmerman looked pretty sharp against the White Sox. If it weren't for one five-run inning the Tigers might not have won yesterday, so although reverse-regression is "due" I can't bet on it happening today. I cannot get behind the Detroit atrocious bullpen, so any Tigers bet would be F5. This could be a great game to look at the in-game "over" if it starts slow.
Texas/Angels: This is Darvish's third start already, and he's walk 3 and 5 respectively in his first two game, and seemingly allowed more fly balls than normal. That's at least enough to make me like the Angels or nothing. Nolasco is a fly ball pitcher and has been for years, so I don't quite grasp the total coming down here. The Angels' pen has been very good while the Rangers' pen has not, so it's the Angels - and I've got to look more at that total. However, day games often mean resting starters.
Yankees/Rays: I said in the first few days that Tampa Bay had been very sloppy in the field during the Spring, and that often times those things carried over. Well, they did yesterday which precludes me from taking Tampa Bay here. Add that to the fact that Andriese is one of the only pitchers Toronto has been able to hit, and he doesn't keep the ball down, and the fact that the Rays' bullpen sucks. I know Severino was crushed by the Orioles, but with a better bullpen New York should eventually get this done, but I do think there are plenty of runs, at least early.
Baltimore/Toronto: I have to stick to my guns with the fact that the Blue Jays aren't hitting, regardless of who's pitching for Baltimore. However, the Orioles bullpen has been uncharacteristically terrible. We do know what happened to Liriano in his first start and I always worry about pitchers coming back from the NL and having to pitch to a DH rather than pitch to only eight hitters. Toronto with Osuna back might get it done here, but not with my money. I do think that the total closes at 9 and as square as the over might be, I think I can make a case for it.
Oakland/Kansas City: I said yesterday that the Royals offense was far too inept to back against anyone, and yet didn't take the A's. I hate to jump on or off a train at the wrong time, but by the same token I cannot get behind the Royals bullpen under any circumstances. So, I think this game starts out low scoring and like the F5 under, and of course the A's.
Pirates/Boston: The Red Sox should have the full compliment of bats this afternoon, and until last night their bullpen had been very good. The Pirates are just off to a terrible start, and this is a tough one-game make up/travel spot for Pittsburgh. Rodriguez is capable of implosion or throwing a no-hitter, so always tough to figure out. Given that the Pirates pen has been awful, one would have to think Boston gets this win, almost as a fade of the Pirates more than a bet on the Red Sox. Classic day-game that I'd really like to see the lineups first, but I'd be hard pressed to back Pittsburgh regardless.
Orioles face struggling Jays
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Blue Jays will be hoping to avoid a six-game losing streak when they host the Orioles on Thursday.
The Orioles are on a roll right now, as they have opened up the season with five win in seven games. Baltimore also happens to be coming off of a 12-5 victory over Boston on Wednesday. That type of win was exactly what the team needed after scoring just four runs total in its previous two losses. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are struggling badly right now. They have lost five straight games and their offense has put up just seven runs total over the past four games. This is supposed to be a team that boasts an explosive lineup, but the bats have not yet woken up. The starters in this Thursday game will be RHP Kevin Gausman (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 8 K) for Baltimore and LHP Francisco Liriano (0-0, 135.00 ERA, 1 K) for Toronto. Liriano had a season debut to forget, allowing five earned runs and retiring only one batter. He’ll hope to rebound here, and he should be able to do just that. He was rock solid during the spring, and it did not seem like he was heading towards anything as bad as his first start of the year. One thing working in his favor is the fact that the Jays are 25-7 against the money line in home games after scoring three runs or less in four straight games since 1997.
Baltimore is off to an excellent start this season and Kevin Gausman will be hoping to keep them going on Thursday. The righty is coming off of a good start against this same Blue Jays team, pitching 5.1 innings of two-run ball. He struck out four batters in that contest, but he did walk four as well. His control has been an issue, and it’d be big if Gausman can get it in check on Thursday. Offensively, both OF Mark Trumbo (.250 BA, 1 HR, 6 RBI) and OF Adam Jones (.286 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI) should be salivating at this matchup with Liriano. The two of them have combined to hit five homers with 10 RBI off of the lefty in their careers. One would have to think they’ll be even more dangerous with Liriano nowhere near his prime these days. Another guy to keep an eye on is C Welington Castillo (.409 BA, 0 HR, 3 RBI). Castillo is 6-for-19 with two homers and seven RBI against Liriano in his career, and he also happens to be on a tear to open up the season.
The Blue Jays badly need to turn things around and they’ll be hoping that Liriano can do the same on Thursday. It can’t get much worse than his first start of the year, so at least Toronto can expect some improvement from the lefty. The offense is also going to need to find something moving forward. Toronto was one of the best offensive teams in baseball last season, but things have not looked good so far. The Jays need both OF Jose Bautista (.138 BA, 0 HR, 1 RBI) and 3B Josh Donaldson (.308 BA, 2 HR, 3 RBI) to come through at the plate on Thursday. They are the leaders of this team and must find a way to get their teammates out of their funks.