MLB Betting News and Notes Thursday, April 17

Thursday's American League Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers (-153, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: The Tigers are 4-12 in right-hander Justin Verlander's last 16 starts.

Cold batting stat: Cleveland shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is 11-for-54 with 21 strikeouts lifetime versus Verlander.

Weather: Partly cloudy skies are forecast with temperatures in the mid-50s and wind blowing in from center field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 6-1-1 in Verlander's previous eight outings.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, Game 1 (OFF)

Hot pitching stat: Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson has allowed just two runs over his first 11 1/3 innings this season.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera has hit safely in all 14 games so far in 2014.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-30s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Minnesota is just 3-15 over its last 18 in the second game of a series.

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-133, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Erasmo Ramirez allowed just one run in seven innings versus the Rangers last year.

Hot batting stat: Seattle first baseman Justin Smoak is 3-for-3 with a pair of home runs versus Rangers starter Tanner Scheppers.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 20 percent chance of rain and wind blowing in from center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Mariners are 1-7 in Ramirez's last eight starts.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-158, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander David Price is 9-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 20 starts and one relief appearance against the Yankees.

Hot batting stat: Tampa Bay third baseman Evan Longoria is a career .396 hitter with six homers in 53 at-bats versus Yankees lefty CC Sabathia.

Weather: N/A

Key betting note: Under is 24-6-1 in New York's last 31 road games versus a left-handed starter.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins, Game 2 (OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Twins right-hander Mike Pelfrey has allowed nine runs in just 10 1/3 innings to open the season.

Cold batting stat: Blue Jays infielder Edwin Encarnacion is just 1-for-12 in his career against Pelfrey.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-30s under partly cloudy skies with wind blowing from left to right field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (-107, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester allowed six runs over six innings in his only start against Chicago in 2013.

Hot batting stat: White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo is 5-for-11 with a home run lifetime versus Lester.

Weather: Fans face a 10 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-50s and wind blowing out to center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Under is 15-5-2 in Lester's previous 22 starts.

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-110, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Astros right-hander Scott Feldman has limited opponents to a .106 batting average through his first 20 2/3 innings.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Houston roster are a combined 2-for-11 against Royals left-hander Bruce Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing from right to left field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Kansas City is 8-20 in Chen's last 28 road starts.

Cards open 4-game set Thursday at Washington
By: Freddy Wander
StatFox.com

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (9-6) at WASHINGTON NATIONALS (9-6)

Line: St. Louis -155, Washington +145, Total: 7

Two of the top teams in the National League, the Cardinals and Nationals, begin a four-game set on Thursday evening in the nation’s capital.

St. Louis has been a sterling example of how a franchise should be run for years now, and the club has started 2014 solid once again. It has won four of its past five contests coming into this one, and just took 2-of-3 games in Milwaukee against the current NL Central-leading Brewers. The Cardinals' pitching dominated the first two games of the series, allowing just one run, but could not get it going on Wednesday for the sweep; losing 5-1. 1B Matt Adams (.362 BA) has been doing well all season long and went 6-for-12 with a double in the series against the Brewers. Washington is right on the tail of the Braves in the NL East after taking 2-of-3 games in Miami. The Nats scored 17 total runs in the three-game set and were able to overcome a great start from the Marlins ace, Jose Fernandez, winning 6-3 behind the power of OF Jayson Werth (1-for-4, HR, 3 RBI) and recently called-up youngster, 24-year old SS Zach Walters (1-for-1, HR). Walters now has a home run in two of his first three games this season. Getting the call for St. Louis in this matchup will be veteran RHP Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.57 ERA) who has pitched seven innings in each of his first three starts of the year. On the other side of the diamond, the Nationals will look to RHP Taylor Jordan (0-1, 4.76 ERA) who will be making his 12th career start and has only one career win in that time. Over the previous two seasons, these clubs met up a total of 18 times with the Cardinals going an impressive 12-6 overall and 6-4 when playing in Washington. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, St. Louis has gone 30-12 (.714) after six consecutive games versus division rivals. Meanwhile, the Nationals are 30-10 (.750) when playing on Thursday since the start of 2012.

Adam Wainwright has been one of the premier starters in the majors for years now and has at least 19 wins, 230 innings, 212 K’s and a sub-2.95 ERA in three of the past four seasons. He already has 24 strikeouts in his first 21 innings on the mound this year while allowing only one home run, which came against the Cubs in his last start on Saturday. That was his worst outing to date, as he went 7 innings while allowing seven hits and four runs, but had a very impressive 8 K's and no walks. Wainwright has started 12 times against the Nats in his career, compiling a 6-3 record (7-5 team record) with a mediocre 3.80 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but earned a win in each of his past two times facing them. He’s totaled 15.1 frames, allowing 12 hits and three runs (1 HR) while striking out 14 with just one walk in the two games. OF Bryce Harper (6-for-11, 2 doubles) has had plenty of success early on in his career against the righty. On the other hand, the only two players to have a home run against him are OF Jayson Werth (5-for-23, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 K’s) and 1B Adam LaRoche (7-for-32, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 12 K’s). The Cardinals’ bullpen has not lived up to expectations thus far in 2014, combining to go 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA while successfully getting the save in all four of its attempts. Closer Trevor Rosenthal (7.36 ERA, 4 saves) has gone 4-for-4 in his save opportunities, but has allowed at least one hit in each of his past four outings and six total runs over that time.

Taylor Jordan came out of nowhere last season, starting nine games for the Nationals with a 3.66 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but recorded only 29 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. He never was a huge strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues, so the K-rate is not all too surprising. Jordan has already allowed 16 hits (1 HR) over his first 11.1 innings this season while striking out eight batters with four walks. Atlanta roughed him up in his last outing on Saturday, getting 10 hits and five runs against him in just five frames. This start will be Jordan’s first against the Redbirds and he has yet to face any of their players in an MLB game. St. Louis currently ranks eighth in the league in batting average against right-handed pitching (.263), but is hitting only .244 (12th-worst in majors) overall this season. Matt Adams has done most of his damage against righties this year, going 19-for-46 (.413 BA) against them with six doubles and a home run. The Nationals have compiled one of the best bullpens in baseball and they have pitched to a combined 3-2 record with a 2.39 ERA and an incredible 67 K’s in just 52.2 IP. Closer Rafael Soriano (0.00 ERA, 3 saves) earned his third save in as many chances Wednesday night, and has yet to allow a run or walk over six innings on the mound while fanning 10 batters.

MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

With wintry weather postponing yesterday's Minnesota, Toronto game the clubs play a day-night doubleheader on Thursday. Toeing the rubber for Minnesota in game-one will be Kyle Gibson (2-0, 1.59 ERA) Twins' best hurler at the moment. On the other side, Jays counter with knuckler R.A. Dickey (1-2, 5.30 ERA). There's an 'Over'-Whelming chance the Twins and Blue Jays bust 'Over' posted totals in the opener. Twins pretty solid in the run production category crossing an average 5.38 runs/game in the early stages won't be intimidated by Dickey who they tagged for 2 long-ball 9 runs in two meetings last year. Jays doing a decent job with the lumber sending 4.36 runners per game over home plate will get their share vs. Gibson who has giving up 7 jacks, 40 runs in twelve starts for Twins. Minnesota 11-2 'Over' on the campaign, 9-3 O/U in Gibson's 12 starts, Jays 4-1 O/U w/Dickey vs a team with a losing record no need bucking the series 'Over' trend that stands at 4-1 last 5 meetings, 3-1 last 4 encounters in Minnesota.

Game of the Day: Cardinals vs. Nationals
By Covers.com

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals (+130, 7)

After enjoying terrific success against Washington last season, the St. Louis Cardinals' Adam Wainwright faces the host Nationals on Thursday in the opener of a three-game series. Wainwright went 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA in two starts versus Washington in 2013, limiting the Nationals to a .214 batting average and posting a 14-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Wainwright worked seven innings in all three of his starts this year, although he allowed a season-high four runs in Saturday's win over the Cubs.

St. Louis enters this series having won two of three against Milwaukee this week, although the team absorbed a 5-1 defeat Wednesday. The Nationals took their rubber game in Miami on Wednesday, notching a 6-3 triumph behind a three-run eighth highlighted by Zach Walters' go-ahead home run. Washington lost all six meetings with St. Louis a season ago.

LINE HISTORY: The Nationals opened as +141 home dogs and have been bet down to +130.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-198), Nationals (-173)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A slow start doomed the Nats last season, but they're more than just treading water in the first month of 2014." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.57 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Taylor Jordan (0-1, 4.76)

Wainwright was not at his best against Chicago last weekend but he did strike out eight batters without a walk after issuing six walks over his first two outings. He likely hopes that Bryce Harper (quad) rests again as the dynamic Washington outfielder is 6-for-11 with two walks against Wainwright. Adam LaRoche and Jayson Werth, on the other hand, have a combined 55 at-bats against Wainwright with a dozen hits between them.

The 25-year-old Jordan, who will be making his 12th career start, has appeared in two games this season - both against the Braves. After limiting Atlanta to one run in 6 1/3 innings April 6, Jordan yielded five runs and 10 hits in five innings Saturday. He has never faced the Cardinals, nor has he faced any players currently on their roster.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
* Cardinals 7-0 in the last seven meetings.
* Cardinals are 4-1 in Wainwright's last five starts vs. the Nationals.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Washington.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of the wagers are on the Cardinals -146.

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Brewers at Pirates (-110, 7)

Milwaukee: 11-4
Pittsburgh: 7-8

The Brewers struggled against the Cardinals in their recent three-game set at home, losing two of three times. Now, Milwaukee is back in its wheel-house when it goes on the highway, where the Brew Crew owns a perfect 6-0 record. Pittsburgh returns to PNC Park after losing five of its past six games, which included getting swept at Milwaukee last weekend.

Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 0.96 ERA) has allowed just two earned runs in three starts this season, while picking up a no-decision in his last outing against Pittsburgh. The Brewers edged the Pirates, 3-2, as Gallardo tossed six innings and yielded two runs, while Milwaukee scored an eighth-inning run to grab the win. Since last August, the Brewers have won each of Gallardo’s last six road starts, including a 4-0 triumph at PNC Park.

The Pirates send out Edinson Volquez (0-0, 1.29 ERA), who has been impressive in two starts as an underdog against the Cardinals and Brewers. The journeyman right-hander has given up just three runs in his two outings, while the Pirates have plated just four runs, resulting in two ‘unders.’ Pittsburgh has won four of five series openers this season, but has scored two runs or less in four of six home games.

Cardinals (-145, 7) at Nationals

St. Louis: 9-6
Washington: 9-6

The Cardinals couldn’t quite pull off the sweep at Milwaukee on Wednesday, but St. Louis has won four of its past five contests. The Nationals stumbled on their six-game road trip, winning just twice, but managed a 6-3 triumph as +160 underdogs over the Marlins last night, while cashing the ‘over’ for the eighth straight contest.

Adam Wainwright (2-1, 2.57 ERA) is making his third road start of the season tonight after beating the Cubs in his past outing, 10-4 as a -220 home favorite. On the highway, Wainwright has allowed two earned runs against the Reds and Pirates, but the Cardinals’ offense has plated just two runs. Wainwright beat the Nationals twice last season, including a masterful performance last April in a 2-0 shutout as a -120 favorite.

The Nationals will try to get on track with Taylor Jordan (0-1, 4.76 ERA) on the mound, as the right-hander was racked in his previous outing at Atlanta. Jordan gave up 10 hits and five earned runs in five innings, including four runs in the opening inning of a 6-3 defeat to the Braves. Jordan is facing the Cardinals for the first time in his short career, as Washington is 4-1 in his five starts at Nationals Park.

Yankees at Rays (-170, 7)

New York: 9-6
Tampa Bay: 7-8

The Yankees pulled off a double-header sweep of the Cubs on Wednesday, blanking Chicago in both victories. New York has won five of its past six games, as the Bombers hit the road for the first time since April 6, while looking to improve on a 3-3 away mark. The Rays return to Tropicana Field following a 3-5 road trip that was punctuated by a three-game skid.

David Price (2-0, 2.91 ERA) is coming off his best performance of the season in a 2-1 road triumph at Cincinnati as a short favorite. The Tampa Bay southpaw pitched into the ninth inning, while striking out 10 batters and scattering four hits as the Rays have won seven of Price’s last eight starts dating back to last September.

The Yankees counter with CC Sabathia (1-2, 6.63 ERA), who has allowed 14 earned runs in three starts, while coming off a home loss to the Red Sox. Since last June, the Yankees are just 3-8 in Sabathia’s outings on the road, while the Rays beat the left-hander in three of four games last season.

Red Sox at White Sox (-120, 7)

Boston: 6-9
Chicago: 8-7

The Red Sox and White Sox have played to a pair of entertaining finishes, as Boston rallied late in last night’s 14-inning triumph to snap a three-game skid. Chicago still owns a solid 6-3 record at U.S. Cellular Field this season, but the White Sox have failed to win three straight contests after putting together three winning streaks of two games.

Both these teams are sending out their aces tonight as Chris Sale (3-0, 2.66 ERA) seeks his fourth win for the White Sox. The lanky southpaw has received terrific run support in his first three outings (6.3 runs/game), while all three victories have come against division opponents. Chicago is 6-2 to the ‘over’ in his last eight home starts, while making his first career start against Boston.

Jon Lester (1-2, 2.57 ERA) picked up his first victory of the season by beating the Yankees, 4-2 last Friday as a short road favorite. Boston has cashed the ‘under’ in all three of Lester’s starts, as the Sox scored one run or less in his two defeats. In Lester’s previous outing on the South Side last May as a heavy favorite, the southpaw allowed six runs in six innings of a 6-4 setback.

MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

Bettors should always ride the hot pitcher, and, believe it or not, there might not be a hotter pitcher in baseball than Houston's Scott Feldman. In all three of his starts, he's matched up with the opponents' ace, and, in 20.2 innings, he's given up just one run, which makes his 0.44 ERA the best in baseball. Really? Scott Feldman?

In Feldman's 10-year major league career, he's never looked so good with his best ERA of 3.92 in 2006 and his best win/loss record in 2009 at 17-9. His career ERA is 4.53 and, while we can give him some extra credit for spending eight years pitching at Arlington for the Rangers, what he's doing this season is mind-blowing.

He started off the season by beating CC Sabathia and the Yankees, 6-2, then took down Jered Weaver and the Angels, 7-4. Then he matched goose eggs with Yu Darvish for seven innings at Texas in a game the Astros eventually lost, 1-0, in 12 innings.

Tonight Feldman will match up against another ace, James Shields, who through three starts has yet to help the Royals win a game. Kansas City is 0-3 behind Shields and his last start at Minnesota on Saturday was his worst so far; he allowed six runs (one earned) during the second inning of a 7-1 loss.

Shields is still thought of as an elite pitcher, but the gap between he and Feldman has closed drastically on the price index where the Royals are a -130 favorite tonight. So, the question you have to ask yourself on this game is whether the price on Shields is cheap behind the better team or whether Feldman is really in a groove that could continue for another few starts, making the Astros +120 good value.

There is no doubt the Royals are the better team, but there's something to be said about a young club that knows it has one of its few chances to win a game because its best pitcher is on the mound. Every player in the locker room takes everything a little more seriously and focuses a little more on the field. After seeing what Feldman has done for them against three aces, they'll run through a brick wall for the guy.

There is also the angle of Feldman pitching with a heavy heart. His father passed away last Wednesday, but he still made his scheduled start on Friday at Texas. Tuesday was the funeral, and while you can look at emotional games several different ways, Friday's start was an indication that Feldman is reaching even deeper to make a good show for his dad.

Houston has dropped four straight after losing 6-4 to the Royals in 11 innings last night, but Feldman's numbers are too good to pass up +120 against a Royals starter who has been a little off.

Bumgarner owns the Dodgers

For Giants fans, there's nothing better than being able to have that one pitcher who owns the Dodgers, and Madison Bumgarner has been that guy. He's already beaten the Dodgers once this season and was 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA against them last season in four starts. In 2012, he shut them down for eight innings, with 10 strikeouts, in a 2-1 win. Current Dodgers have hit only .201 lifetime against him with a slap-hitting .315 slugging percentage.

This afternoon, Bumgarner is -115 against the Dodgers and H.J. Ryu for the getaway game. Normally this would be a spot to side with the UNDER, but you can't count on the Giants' bats to comply anymore. All three of Bumgarner's starts have gone OVER as they have pushed across an average of seven runs for him while winning all three.

Thursday's picks:

Astros (Feldman) +120 vs. Royals

Giants (Bumgarner) -115 vs. Dodgers

Mariners (Erasmo Ramirez) +110 at Rangers

White Sox (Chris Sale) -115 vs. Red Sox