MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Nationals @ Braves
Strasburg is 1-0, 3.00 in his first three starts (under 3-0).
Dickey is 1-1, 6.17 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Washington won six of its last eight games; four of their last six stayed under. Atlanta won five of its last seven games; nine of their last 12 games went over the total.
Phillies @ Mets
Nola is 1-0, 3.27 in his first two ’17 starts (over 1-1).
Syndergaard is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1).
Phillies lost six of their last eight games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. New York lost four of last five games; over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games.
Cardinals @ Brewers
Martinez is 0-2, 7.59 in his last two starts; under is 1-0-1 in his ’17 starts.
Davies is 0-2, 8.79 in three starts this season (over 3-0).
St Louis won its last three games, all by 2-1 score; six of their last seven games stayed under. Brewers won six of last nine games; five of their last six games went over.
Diamondbacks @ Padres
Corbin is 1-2, 4.50 in his first three ’16 starts (over 2-1).
Richard is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two starts; under is 2-1 in his ’17 starts.
Arizona is 9-5 in its last 14 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last en games. Padres lost five of their last six games; three of their last four games went over.
American League
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Sale is 1-1, 1.25 in three starts this season (under 3-0).
Estrada is 0-1, 3.50 in his first three ’17 starts (under 2-1)
Boston won four of its last five games; under is 9-6 in its games this month. Toronto is off to a 3-11 start, 2-6 at home. Three of their last five games went over.
Tigers @ Rays
Norris is 1-0, 1.46 in his first two ’17 starts (over 2-0).
Ramirez is making his first ’17 start; he was 11-6, 3.75 in 27 starts in ’15, but made only one start LY, in 64 appearances. He’s started 63 games overall in big leagues (26-29, 4.13).
Detroit lost three of its last four games; over is 5-2 in their road games. Tampa Bay won its last five home games; over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Indians @ Twins
Bauer is 0-2, 8.44 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Santana is 3-0, 0.41 in his first three ’17 starts (under 2-0-1).
Cleveland won three of its last four games; over is 5-3 in their road games. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games; five of their last six home tilts stayed under total.
Royals @ Rangers
Duffy is 2-0, 1.80 in his first three ’17 starts (over 1-1-1).
Cashner allowed four runs in 5.1 IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, a 5-0 loss in Seattle.
Royals won five of their last six games (under 6-0). Texas lost five of its last six games; four of their last six games stayed under total.
Angels @ Astros
Shoemaker is 0-0, 6.75 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
McCullers is 1-0, 4.67 in three starts this season (over 2-1).
Angels lost seven of their last eight games; under is 9-1 in their road games. Astros won seven of last nine games; under is 8-2 in their home tilts.
Mariners @ A’s
Paxton is 2-0, 0.00 (21 IP) in three starts this month (under 3-0).
Valdez is making his first MLB appearance since 2010; he allowed 19 runs in 20 IP in nine games (two starts) for Arizona in ’10. He is 1-0, 2.70 in two AAA starts this season.
Mariners won five of their last six games; four of their last six games stayed under. Oakland lost four of its last six games; under is 6-4 in its last ten games.
Interleague
Orioles @ Reds
Miley is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this month (over 2-0).
Feldman is 1-1, 2.87 in three starts this month (over 1-1-1).
Orioles won five of last seven games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Cincinnati lost four of last six games; three of their last five games went over.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Wsh-Atl: Strasburg 2-1; Dickey 1-1
Phil-NY: Nola 1-1; Syndergaard 2-1
StL-Mil: Martinez 1-2; Davies 0-3
Az-SD: Corbin 1-2; Richard 1-2
American League
Bos-Tor: Sale 2-1; Estrada 1-2
Clev-Min: Bauer 0-2; Santana 3-0
Det-TB: Norris 1-1; Ramirez 0-0
KC-Tex: Duffy 2-1; Cashner 0-1
LA-Hst: Shoemaker 2-1; McCullers 3-0
Sea-A’s: Paxton 2-1; Valdez 0-0
Interleague
Balt-Cin: Miley 1-1; Feldman 1-2
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Wsh-Atl: Strasburg 0-3; Dickey 0-2
Phil-NY: Nola 0-2; Syndergaard 1-3
StL-Mil: Martinez 1-3; Davies 1-3
Az-SD: Corbin 1-3; Richard 0-3
American League
Bos-Tor: Sale 0-3; Estrada 0-3
Clev-Min: Bauer 0-2; Santana 0-3
Det-TB: Norris 0-2; Ramirez 0-0
KC-Tex: Duffy 1-3; Cashner 1-1
LA-Hst: Shoemaker 3-3; McCullers 0-3
Sea-A’s: Paxton 0-3; Valdez 0-0
Interleague
Balt-Cin: Miley 0-2; Feldman 1-3
Umpires
National League
Wsh-Atl: Last six Culbreth games stayed under total.
Phil-NY: Underdogs are 6-5 in las 11 Iassogna games.
Az-SD: Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Davis games.
American League
Bos-Tor: Under is 6-3 in last nine Blaser games.
Clev-Min: Under is 10-3 in last thirteen Porter games.
Det-TB: Underdogs won five of last eight Marquez games.
LA-Hst: Over is 9-2-1 in last dozen HGibson games.
Interleague
Balt-Cin: Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Estabrook games.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Nationals (6-2 past eight)
The Nationals continue their three-game series at brand spanking new SunTrust Park in Atlanta against the Braves, who have dropped two in a row after a five-game winning streak. Stephen Strasburg is on the bump, and he generally helps the Nats pick on the weakest opponents. Washington is 7-3 over his past 10 road starts against a team with a losing overall record, and 19-7 in his past 26 outings overall versus losing teams. The Nationals are also 6-1 over his past seven starts against the Braves, and 5-1 in his past six in Atlanta. Washington has won the first two in this series, and eight of their past 11 trips to Hotlanta. They're also an amazing 37-14 in the past 51 meetings overall.
Coldest team Mariners (1-6 in seven road games this season)
The Mariners hit the road after a successful homestand, posting five wins over the past six outings at Safeco Field. Playing at home hasn't been the problem. Playing on the road is where the Mariners need a ton of improvement. Seattle has won just one game in seven tries on the road, a 4-2 decision in Houston on April 6 behind southpaw Angel Miranda. While the Mariners are 13-3 in their past 16 games against teams with a losing record, they're just 1-5 in their past six road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. If they're going to catch fire on the road it might be against Oakland. They're 7-2 in the past nine meetings with the A's, and 20-6 in their past 26 trips to the East Bay. In addition, the Mariners have the hottest pitcher in the majors on the hill (see below).
Hottest pitcher: James Paxton, Mariners (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
Paxton has yet to allow an earned run over 21 innings, winning two of his three starts with just eight hits and four walks allowed. He has also struck out 22 batters, posting an impressive .113 opponent batting average with a sparkling 0.57 WHIP. He has been untouchable, and he looks to stay hot on the road. The Mariners are 4-1 in Paxton's past five road outings and 5-1 in his past six starts against teams with a losing record. Oakland has managed a dismal 2-5 mark over their past seven games at home against a left-handed starter.
Coldest pitcher: Zach Davies, Brewers (0-2, 8.79 ERA)
Davies has been terrible through three outings for the Brewers, serving up a pair of home runs in 14 1/3 innings while walking eight and striking out 11 batters. In addition, he has a terrible 2.02 WHIP with a .344 opponent batting average. He'll be opposed by St. Louis Opening Day starter Carlos Martinez. The Cardinals are 19-8 in Martinez's past 27 road starts and 21-10 in his past 31 starts against National League Central foes. St. Louis is 4-0 in Martinez's past four starts against the Brewers, and 5-0 in their past five road trips to Milwaukee. That's bad news for Davies, who isn't likely to snap out of his funk against the Cards.
Biggest UNDER run: Twins (9-2 past 11 games)
The only thing that could keep Minnesota from posting another 'under' Wednesday was Mother Nature, as the third game of the four-game set was wiped out due to rain. If Trevor Bauer's history on the road is any indication, Thursday's series finale will be a low-scoring affair. The under is 21-4-4 in Bauer's past 29 road starts. The under is also 9-2-1 in Minnesota's past 12 outings against American League Central Division rivals and 15-5-1 in their past 21 against right-handed starting pitchers. The under is 6-0-1 in Ervin Santana's past seven starts overall, and 5-0-1 in his past six assignments against AL Central foes. The under is 5-2-1 in the past eight meetings, and 5-1 in the past six clashes between the Indians and Twins are Target Field.
Biggest OVER run: Mets (9-3-1 past 13 games)
The 'over' has been a regular happening for the Mets lately, especially at Citi Field. The over is 6-2 in New York's past eight overall, and 5-0-1 in their past six games at home. For what it's worth, the over has cashed in each of the past seven Thursday games for the Mets. The over is also 8-3-1 in their past 12 clashes with divisional foes, 5-1 in Noah Syndergaard's past six home outings against a team with a losing record and 5-2 in his past seven assignments against a team with a winning percentage under .400. The over is also 9-2 in Aaron Nola's past 11 starts overall and 7-1 in his past eight road outings.
Matchup to watch: Rangers vs. Royals
The Rangers return home to Globe Life Park in Arlington after managing a poor 3-6 mark on a nine-game road swing against divisional rivals. Home hasn't exactly been an oasis for the Rangers, as they opened the season getting swept in three games against the Indians before rebounding for two of three against the Athletics. The Royals might be the elixir to cure the ills of the Rangers, as Kansas City has dropped four straight games in the Metroplex while going 0-6 in their past six against the Rangers overall. The Royals have won just one of Danny Duffy's past five road outings and three of his past 10 starts overall.
Betcha didn’t know: Scott Feldman of the Reds has been kryptonite to Orioles star Adam Jones, as he has managed a dismal .087 batting average over 23 career at-bats. While Feldman has had his way with Jones, he has struggled with Jonathan Schoop in their brief dealings. The middle infielder has three hits in six career at-bats against Feldman, and Schoop carries a seven-game hitting streak into action. Manny Machado has also had his way with the veteran right-hander, going 5-for-11 (.455) with a double, triple, two homers and six RBI with a 1.811 OPS.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-185) vs. Phillies
Biggest public underdog: Tigers (+120) at Rays
Biggest line move: Braves (+170 to +150) vs. Nationals
Nationals, Braves meet in Atlanta
By: StatFox.com
The Nationals will be going for their fourth straight win when they face the Braves on Thursday.
Washington is on a tear right now, as the team has won three straight games and six of its past eight. The Nationals were hot at the plate on Wednesday, racking up 20 hits on their way to scoring 14 runs against this same Braves team. Atlanta, meanwhile, only had eight hits on Wednesday, and this team is going to need to be a lot better offensively in order to prevent a three-game losing streak on Thursday. The starters in this Thursday night matchup are going to be RHP Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 19 K) for the Nationals and RHP R.A. Dickey (1-1, 3.86 ERA, 10 K) for the Braves. One trend that favors Atlanta in this game is the fact that the team is 38-14 against the money line versus teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game since 1997. The Braves do, however, have Dickey on the mound, and the righty is just 8-20 against the money line when facing division opponents over the past three seasons. OF Jayson Werth (Undisclosed) is questionable for the Nats in this game, and OF Trea Turner (Hamstring) is still on the DL for Washington. Turner is, however, reportedly feeling healthy, so he should be back with the team very soon. For Atlanta, OF Matt Kemp (Hamstring) is on the DL. He should also be back with the Braves shortly.
Stephen Strasburg is healthy for Washington right now, and that is all the Nationals can really ask of the 28-year-old righty. Strasburg has always been elite when he is able to pitch for this team, but he has been injured the past few postseasons. Now that he’s healthy, Strasburg looks as good as new for the Nats. He has pitched seven innings in each of his starts this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all of those contests. It wouldn’t be surprising if he blanked the Braves in this one either. Offensively, OF Bryce Harper (.404 BA, 6 HR, 18 RBI) is the player to watch in this one. Harper is on fire right now, as he is 9-for-12 with three doubles, four homers, and 10 RBI over the past three games. Dickey is definitely a tough pitcher to hit, but Harper will take advantage of any pitches that don’t knuckle properly here. 2B Daniel Murphy (.344 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI) should also provide some offense for Washington. Murphy spent plenty of time with Dickey in a Mets uniform, so he should know him pretty well. This is just the matchup he needs after two hitless games in a row.
The Braves have lost two straight to the Nationals, but they could get back into the win column in this one. While the team is going up against a very talented pitcher, there are plenty of guys on this roster that have been able to get to the righty. One of those is 1B Freddie Freeman (.440 BA, 6 HR, 8 RBI), who has emerged as one of the league’s best hitters this season. Over the past three games, Freeman is 8-for-9 with three homers and five RBI. He also happens to be 14-for-35 with four homers and 13 RBI against Strasburg in his career. That means he should be in for a solid performance on Thursday as well. Another guy that has hit Strasburg hard is 3B Adonis Garcia (.170 BA, 1 HR, 3 RBI). Garcia has struggled this season, but he is 6-for-13 against Strasburg in his career. If he can get on base then it’d be a big plus for Atlanta. As for Dickey, the righty will just need to turn in a quality start in this one. He is facing a very good offense, so anything else would be a major plus for the veteran. If his pitches aren’t knuckling then there could be trouble, though.
MLB Daily Line Drive
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Double-Play Picks
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (+126, 8 )
The Indians have had the Twins number of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings with their division rival, including the first two games of this series, outscoring Minnesota 14-5. However, Minnesota sends red-hot starter Ervin Santana to the mound for the finale of this rain shortened series.
Santana has been one of the best pitchers in baseball at this point in the young season. In three starts the 34-year-old right-hander has thrown 22 innings to the tune of a 0.41 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP, while holding opponents to a futile .133 OBP.
He also seems to be getting stronger with each outing and is coming off a complete game one-hit shutout of the White Sox, in which he racked up eight strikeouts and just one walk.
While the Twins aren’t world beaters on offense by any means, they have been opportunistic and they should have plenty of opportunity against Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer. Bauer is making his third start of the season and is 0-2 with a 8.44 ERA and is coming off a five-inning outing against the Tigers in which he gave up six runs on eight hits.
Pick: Twins +126
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (105, 8 )
The Cardinals haven’t enjoyed playing baseball away from Busch Stadium this season, going just 1-5 on the road this year. Luckily, they play a Brewers team that been almost as bad at home and send a pitcher to the mound who has dominated this matchup.
The Cardinals are 6-1 in Carlos Martinez’s last seven starts against the Brewers, including 5-0 on the road.
The 25-year old right-hander has pitched to a ridiculously good 0.98 ERA with 50 strikeouts to 12 walks in those starts and the one loss can’t really be attributed to Martinez who only threw seven pitches before coming out of the game with shoulder soreness.
Additionally, while the St. Louis lineup has been struggling, they have received some timely hitting and get to face a struggling Zack Davies, who is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA and eight walks to go along with just 11 strikeouts in three starts.
Pick: Cardinals -130
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 6-6
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (2-0, 0.00 ERA, $100)
You can argue that no one has had a better start to the season than the Mariner’s James Paxton. The lefty looks more and more like Seattle’s ace (sorry King Felix, time to pass the crown) with each passing start.
In three starts, Paxton is 2-0, with an ERA that still sits a triple zero. Yes, he has yet to allow an earned run in 22 innings pitched. He has done this because he has done an excellent job of keeping runners off the bases, with a 0.54 WHIP and an opponents’ OBP of .160. He also has 22 strikeouts to just four walks this season. The Mariners are -149 road chalk at the A’s.
Slumping: Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (0-2, 8.79 ERA, -$304)
Zach Davies (from Puyallup, Washington) is off to a horrible start to the 2017 baseball season. The young righty has made three awful starts thus far and the Brewers have lost all three, including two starts at home.
In 14.1 innings pitched this season Davies is sporting a very untidy 8.79 ERA, a 2.023 WHIP, and a very alarming opponent's on base percentage of .408. Yikes! He can't keep guys from getting on base and once they get on base they usually score.
The Brewers are +100 home dogs today with the rival Red Birds coming to town.
Monday’s Top Trends
* The Houston Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. right-handed starters. -160 today vs. Matt Shoemaker and the Los Angeles Angels.
* Under is 19-4-4 in the last 27 meetings between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers. Total today set at 9.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Patrick Corbin's last 6 road starts. D-Backs -115 @ San Diego today.
* The Seattle Mariners are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. M's -150 tonight @ Oakland.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Conditions are expected to be blustery in Cincinnati where the Reds will welcome the Baltimore Orioles for an interleague matchup. There is a 60 percent chance of a thunderstorm developing late in the evening and a 10-15 MPH wind is expected to blow OUT TO LEFT throughout the game.
The total for this evening's game is currently set at 9 with Wade Miley and Scott Feldman on the bump.
Ump of the Day
Mike Estabrook: Estabrook will be behind the dish for this evening's game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds at the great American Ball Park and, based on recent history, this seems like good news for the O's. The Orioles have won their last seven games with Estabrook calling balls and strikes. Meanwhile, the Reds are only 1-5 in their last six with Mr. Estabrook wearing the pads. The Orioles are slight -120 favorites today.