MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MLB Knowledge
National League
Marlins @ Phillies
Volquez is 0-2, 7.24 in his last three starts (under 2-1-1).
Hellickson is 3-0, 1.88 in four starts this month (under 4-0).
Miami is 3-5 in its last eight road games; their last five games went over. Phillies won their last five games; under is 3-1 in their last four games.
Braves @ Mets
Former Met Dickey is 1-2, 5.30 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Syndergaard is 1-1, 3.12 in four starts this month (under 2-1-1).
Atlanta lost six of its last seven games; under is 5-2 in Braves’ last seven games. Mets lost nine of their last ten games; over is 7-1-3 in their last 11 home tilts.
Nationals @ Rockies
Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.02 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Senzatela is 3-0, 2.08 in four starts this month (under 3-1).
Nationals won nine of their last their last ten games; they’re 9-3 on road. Their last four games went over total. Colorado won seven of its last ten games; four of their last five games went over.
Padres @ Diamondbacks
Weaver is 0-1, 4.30 in four starts this month (over 3-1).
Walker is 2-1, 4.98 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Padres lost six of their last seven road games; over is 9-2 in their last eleven games overall. Arizona won nine of last 11 home games; over is 11-2 in their home games.
Dodgers @ Giants
20-year old Urias is making his first ’17 start; he is 5-2, 3.39 in 15 MLB starts. He is 0-0, 1.93 in three AAA starts this season.
Moore is 1-3, 7.04 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Dodgers lost seven of their last ten games (under 7-2-1)- they’re 4-8 on road. San Francisco lost five of their last seven games. Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games.
American League
Astros @ Indians
Fiers is 0-1, 6.00 in three starts this month (over 2-1).
Kluber is 2-1, 4.61 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Astros won ten of last 13 games, are 7-3 on road- eight of their last nine road games went over total. Cleveland won six of its last eight games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
Bronx @ Boston
Tanaka is 2-0, 2.70 in his last two starts (over 3-1).
Sale is 1-1, 0.91 in four starts this month (under 3-1); Boston scored 10 runs in the four games.
Bronx lost five of last eight road games; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games overall. Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Red Sox are 7-3 at home; their last six games stayed under the total.
Mariners @ Tigers
Iwakuma is 0-2, 5.31 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Verlander is 0-2, 13.00 in his last two starts (over 3-1).
Mariners are 3-10 on the road (over 5-2-1 in last eight). Detroit won three of its last four games; they’re 6-3 at home. Over is 5-0-2 in their last seven games.
A’s @ Angels
Graveman was just on DL; he is 2-1, 2.00 in three starts this month (under 2-1).
Nolasco is 1-2, 4.76 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Oakland lost its last three games; five of their last seven road games stayed under. Angels won four of their last five games; over is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games.
Interleague
Blue Jays @ Cardinals
Latos allowed four runs in five IP (85 PT) in his first ’17 start, an extra-inning win in Anaheim. Lawrence allowed five runs in 6.1 IP in his only ’17 start, a 5-4 loss in Anaheim.
Martinez is 0-3, 8.04 in his last three starts (over 1-1-2 in his ’17 starts). Wainwright is 1-3, 6.75 in four starts this month (over 2-2).
Toronto is 5-5 in its last ten games after a 1-9 start; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games. Cardinals won six of last eight games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Mia-Phil: Volquez 1-3; Hellickson 4-0
Atl-NY: Dickey 1-2; Syndergaard 2-2
Wsh-Col: Gonzalez 3-1; Senzatela 4-0
LA-SF: Urias 0-0; Moore 1-3
SD-Az: Weaver 0-4; Walker 3-1
American League
Hst-Clev: Fiers 2-1; Kluber 3-1
NY-Bos: Tanaka 2-2; Sale 3-1
Sea-Det: Iwakuma 1-3; Verlander 2-2
A’s-LAA: Graveman 2-1; Nolasco 2-2
Interleague
Tor-StL: Latos 1-0 Lawrence 0-1; Martinez 1-3 Wainwright 1-3
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Mia-Phil: Volquez 2-4; Hellickson 0-4
Atl-NY: Dickey 0-3; Syndergaard 1-4
Wsh-Col: Gonzalez 2-4; Senzatela 2-4
LA-SF: Urias 0-0; Moore 1-4
SD-Az: Weaver 0-4; Walker 1-4
American League
Hst-Clev: Fiers 2-3; Kluber 0-4
NY-Bos: Tanaka 2-4; Sale 0-4
Sea-Det: Iwakuma 0-4; Verlander 2-4
A’s-LAA: Graveman 0-3; Nolasco 2-4
Interleague
Tor-StL: Latos 1-0 Lawrence 1-1; Martinez 1-3 Wainwright 1-4
Umpires
National League
Mia-Phil: Four of five Hernandez games this month went over.
Atl-NY: Four of five Nelson games this month stayed under.
Wsh-Col: Over is 10-5 in las fifteen Winters games.
LA-SF: Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Danley games.
SD-Az: Four of five Cooper games this month stayed under.
American League
Hst-Clev: Favorites won five of last six Reynolds games.
NY-Bos: Under is 11-6 in last 17 Carlson games.
Sea-Det: Under is 4-0-1 in Fletcher games this month.
A’s-LAA: Favorites won eight of last eleven Hudson games.
Interleague
Tor-StL: All four Barry games this month went over. Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen O’Nora games.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Diamond Notes
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Angels (4-1 past five)
The Angels benefited from the loss of Athletics SP Sean Manaea (shoulder) due to injury, taking care of the A's by an 8-5 score to win their second straight game in as many nights. The Halos scratched back to within one game of .500 at 11-12, and they're 4-1 in their past five meetings with the Athletics. While the offense has come and gone for the Angels, pitching remains the team's strong suit. They're allowed an average of just 3.42 runs per game over the past 12 games, and they're giving up 3.5 runs per game in six meetings with the A's this season.
Coldest team Blue Jays (5-12 past 17)
The Blue Jays are showing some signs of life lately, alternating wins and losses over the past eight outings. However, they're rounding the corner and heading for home in April while yet to record back-to-back victories this season. Toronto is just 4-9 in their past 13 road games, and 3-8 in their past 11 road outings against a right-handed starter. They haven't had a lot of success in the second game of a series lately, either, going 1-5 in Game 2. While Toronto has been ice cold, they have their best chance at consecutive wins. They have won four straight trips to St. Louis, and six of the past eight meetings overall against the Cardinals.
Hottest pitcher: Chris Sale, White Sox (1-1, 0.91 ERA)
The victories haven't been flowing for Sale so far in Beantown, but the big-ticket item has been everything as advertised in the first month of his tenure in Boston. He has allowed just three earned runs, 15 hits and six walks while rolling up 42 strikeouts over 29 2/3 innings. In addition, opposing hitters have posted a weak .147 batting average against him while Sale has managed a 0.71 WHIP. He gets his first taste of the Boston-New York rivalry on Thursday night. While the Yankees are 7-0 in their past seven against left-handed starters, they're 1-4 in their past five trips to Boston. Since the start of the 2013 season Sale is 2-1 with a complete game, 1.29 ERA and 31 strikeouts over 28 innings against the Yankees with a .175 batting average.
Coldest pitcher: Matt Moore, Giants (1-3, 5.87 ERA)
The southpaw has just one quality start in four appearance so far this season. His only win came at home back on April 10 when he allowed one earned run with three hits, no walks and five strikeouts over eight innings against the Diamondbacks. He was knocked around by the Rockies in each of his past two outings, going 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. His main issue has been failing to keep the ball in the park, coughing up five homers over his past three starts, including three long balls at Coors Field last Wednesday. He has been rather hittable, posting a 1.57 WHIP while striking out just 17 batters over 23 innings.
Biggest UNDER run: Red Sox (5-0-1 past six games)
The Red Sox offense has been listless over the past six outings, as they're averaging just 2.2 runs per game during the span. That will help the 'under' cash frequently, especially with a pitching staff like Boston limiting the opposition. Boston's pitching hasn't been the problem, giving up just 2.5 runs per game over the past six outings. Boston ranks fifth in the majors with a 3.49 ERA. They're in the midst of a series with the Yankees, a team with a 3.05 ERA, so 'under' results are likely to continue.
Biggest OVER run: Diamondbacks (5-1 past six games)
The 'over' cashed in spectacular fashion for Arizona on Wednesday, as the Padres erupted for five runs in the top of the ninth inning to push the total over as closer Fernando Rodney coughed up a two-run blew for his first blown save of the season. That's three straight over results against the Padres in this series, and five in the past six in Arizona. In fact the over is an impressive 10-2-1 in 13 games at home for Arizona. The Padres turn to veteran Jered Weaver, but they're 0-4 over his past four outings. The 'over' is 5-0 in San Diego's past five road games and 4-0-1 in their past five against a team wit ha winning mark. The over is 40-12-2 in Arizona's past 54 home games overall and 36-14-1 in their past 51 vs. RHP. Keep riding the wave and smash those Arizona overs.
Matchup to watch: Angels vs. Athletics
Kendall Graveman (shoulder) is back from the 10-day disabled list to start Thursday's game. However, he is expected to be on a pitch count, so that might bode well for the Halos. The A's are just 2-5 in Graveman's past seven road starts and 2-8 in his past 10 assignments against divisional foes. The Angels turn to Opening Day starter Ricky Nolasco. They have ripped off five victories over the past seven outings with Nolasco on the hill, and they're 15-5 in their past 20 games at the Big A when facing a team with a losing overall mark. The A's haven't had a lot of success in SoCal, losing five straight trips to Anaheim and picking up just one win in the past five meetings overall with the Halos.
Betcha didn’t know: Masahiro Tanaka held down the Red Sox in 2016, going 1-0 with a 1.83 ERA in three starts last season. Two of Boston's best hitters haven't had a lot of success against the import, as OF Mookie Betts has collected just three hits in 18 career at-bats (.167). SS Xander Bogaerts isn't much better at 6-for-27 (.222), while 1B Hanley Ramirez is just 2-for-13 overall against the starter. The good news is that Dustin Pedroia (knee) might be ready to return after a three-game absence. He is a career .304 hitter (7-for-23) with two doubles and a solo homer against the right-handed starter for the Pinstripes.
Biggest public favorite: Mets (-215) vs. Braves
Biggest public underdog: Athletics (+120) at Angels
Biggest line move: Mets (-175 to -215) vs. Braves
Yankees face struggling Red Sox
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Yankees will be going for a two-game sweep over the Red Sox on Thursday.
New York defeated Boston 3-1 on Wednesday night, and Luis Severino pitched a gem for the Yankees in that one. Severino threw seven innings of shutout baseball, striking out six batters and walking only two. RHP Masahiro Tanaka (6-2, 6.00 ERA, 19 K) will be hoping for a similar performance on Thursday, but this season has been a bit rocky for the 28-year-old. On the mound for Boston in this game will be LHP Chris Sale (1-1, 0.91 ERA, 42 K), who has been dominant since the Sox acquired him in the offseason. Sale will be hoping to help the team end its recent struggles in this one. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is the fact that New York is 24-7 against the money line when the total is between 7 and 8.5 over the past two seasons with Tanaka on the mound. The Yankees are, however, just 9-23 against the money line in road games after having won two of their past three games in that span. As for injuries, SS Didi Gregorius (Shoulder) is expected back in the next series for New York. C Gary Sanchez (Bicep) will also be back soon. 2B Dustin Pedroia (Knee), meanwhile, is questionable for Boston, which is going to be without 3B Pablo Sandoval (Knee) for the next couple of games.
The Yankees have been one of the more surprising teams in baseball, as many considered them to be a bottom dweller in the AL East this season. New York is currently second in the AL East, and knows that a win on Thursday would be big. Tanaka will be the guy on the hill in this one, and he is coming off of his best start of the season. The righty faced the White Sox on Apr. 19 and pitched seven innings of one-run ball. Tanaka struck out six in that game, and he is definitely hoping that his early season struggles are behind him. Offensively, OF Aaron Judge (.281 BA, 7 HR, 15 RBI) is on a tear for the Yankees. Judge has homered four times in the past seven games, and he has seen his average rise from .250 on Apr. 18 to .281 on Apr. 26. And while Sale is another animal on the mound, Judge has the best shot of any to get to the lefty on Thursday. 3B Chase Headley (.333 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI) could also do some damage at the plate, as he is batting .385 with a double and two RBI against Sale in his career.
The Red Sox are coming off of a disappointing loss to the Yankees on Wednesday, but they now have Chris Sale on the mound on Thursday. Sale has been nearly unhittable this season, allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven or more innings in all four of his starts this season. He has struck out double-digit batters in three straight, and now faces a Yankees team that he has dominated in his career. Look for him to put in some excellent work in this one. Offensively, the Sox will be hoping that guys like OF Mookie Betts (.324 BA, 2 HR, 11 RBI) and 1B Hanley Ramirez (.215 BA, 1 HR, 7 RBI) will be able to figure out their issues with Tanaka. The two of them are a combined 5-for-31 against the righty in their careers, and the Sox are counting on them to come through on Thursday.