MLB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia and San Francisco square off in a rubber match Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies will have Cole Hamels handling the starting duties, with the left-hander bringing a 4-13 record, 4.09 ERA to the mound. Phillies w/Hamels have not been good bets at Citizens Bank Park posting a 3-7 mark costing backers -$749 at the betting window. For the Giants, Matt Cain who has a 6-6 mark, 4.79 ERA will toe the rubber. Betting San Francisco w/Cain on the road has not been a profitable proposition as Giants are 3-6 away with the hurler depleting betting accounts by -$344. As you can see, neither of the starters has a strong track record in today's situation but were putting our faith in Cain off a solid 7 innings of 1 run-ball which can only boost his confidence. The fact that this game is being played at night sheds a little more light that were on the right track. Giants are 3-1 in night road games w/Cain, Phillies are 1-5 w/Hamels under home light's. In addition, can't ignore the fact Giants are 4-1 last five vs Philadelphia w/Cain, Phillies are 1-4 last five vs San Francisco w/Hamels. Last but not least, Giants are 3-0 as road underdog in a 3-game rubber match, Phillies are 1-7 w/Hamels off a loss the previous night including 0-3 at home.
Royals at Twins: Preview & Pick
Bovada.lv
Taking a road favorite can be a perilous road in baseball betting, but today’s free MLB pick appears to have enough in its favor to counteract such concerns, as the Kansas City Royals close out a road series against the Minnesota Twins.
According to the current betting odds at Bovada, the visiting Royals are listed as -150 favorites, with a run total of 7.5.
The visiting Royals will have James Shields starting, bringing a 5-7 record with a 3.09 ERA to the hill. The righthander is coming off an excellent month, with his road numbers standing out: a 2-0 record with a 1.89 ERA.
Minnesota will send out southpaw Scott Diamond, who has struggled all season long, currently holding a 5-9 mark and 5.26 ERA. Diamond had a strong outing last Friday in a no-decision at Seattle, but in his last four starts at Target Field, the portsider is just 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA.
Those latter issues are well known to sports handicappers, who note that the Twins have lost in 12 of Diamond’s last 15 starts at home and 10 of the last 14 starts overall.
Adding to the problem is Minnesota as a team has had its problems of late, with just two wins in the last ten games at Target. Also, the team is just 2-6 in front of the home crowds this year when the run total is under 8.
That latter baseball betting nugget is similar to a fate for all recent home dogs: the last 11 games in which a home dog was in the final game of a series with a total under 8, the dog has won just three times.
The concluding game of a home series is also an obstacle for the Twins specifically, who are 3-8 over the past three months in that capacity. The number is even worse when that series-ender comes in the middle of a homestand: a 1-7 mark.
Lest anyone think that the Royals have nothing in their own favor, sports handicappers would be quick to note that the team is 5-2 against lefties on the road during the previous two months.
Those sports handicappers would also be quick to note that Shields, following a hard-luck first two months, has been on fire since the start of June. While he is merely 3-1 during this time, the Royals are 9-2 in his starts, including 5-1 on the road.
Kansas City feels it is in the pennant race, making a deal yesterday to try and help the team down the stretch. That means a quality pitcher, coupled with a motivated team are the correct equation for success this afternoon. Thus, today’s free MLB Pick is
Play Kansas City -150
Thursday Matinee Action
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The start of August baseball showcases three matinee affairs, including four pitchers taking the mound owning an ERA of 3.42 or lower. All three favorites are teams that are playing well of late, including the Mets, who have picked up a handful of victories at Miami and the Indians, who try to stay hot at home against Chicago.
White Sox at Indians
Probables: C. Sale (6-10, 2.69 ERA) vs. J. Masterson (12-7, 3.42 ERA)
Series recap: Either the Indians keep finding ways to win games or the White Sox keep inventing ways to lose games. Cleveland beat Chicago for the third straight night, 6-5 in 10 innings as $1.50 home favorites. The Indians won for the second time in this series thanks to a walk-off homer, as Carlos Santana capped a thrilling rally in the 10th inning. After Chicago scored two runs to take a 5-3 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, the Tribe loaded the bases with no outs and scored two runs on deep sacrifice flies to tie the contest.
Pitching notes: Justin Masterson has mastered the White Sox in his Cleveland tenure, beating Chicago three times this season, while the Indians are 6-1 against Chicago since last May when he takes the mound. The Tribe has won nine of Masterson's 12 home starts this season, including a 1-0 shutout in his last outing against the Rangers.
Chris Sale hasn't received great run support, as the Sox have scored one run or less in seven of the southpaw's starts. Chicago is 2-4 in Sale's previous six starts, in spite of the lefty tossing six consecutive quality outings. The Sox have cashed in four of Sale's six starts in the role of a road underdog, but he has lost twice to Cleveland.
Mets at Marlins
Probables: M. Harvey (8-2, 2.11 ERA) vs. T. Koehler (2-6, 4.67 ERA)
Series recap: The Marlins finally broke through against the Mets by squeaking out a 3-2 home triumph on Wednesday. Miami lost the first two games of this series, including a 10-inning defeat on Tuesday, but the Marlins improved to 8-3 the last 11 meetings with New York. Following an 'over' in the series opener, the Marlins and Mets have each cashed the 'under' in the last two games.
Pitching notes: Matt Harvey has allowed just one (unearned) run in his last two outings since starting the All-Star Game, as the Mets split games against the Nationals and Phillies. However, the Mets' ace hasn't figured out how to slow down the Miami lineup as New York is 0-3 in his three starts against the Fish this season (all no-decisions).
The Marlins send out Tom Koehler, who owns a 1-4 record at home this season. The right-hander has put together two terrific starts as a heavy underdog at Colorado and San Francisco, but allowed five earned runs in his previous outing, a home loss to the Pirates.
Royals at Indians
Probables: J. Shields (5-7, 3.09 ERA) vs. S. Diamond (5-9, 5.26 ERA)
Series recap: The Royals held on for their eighth consecutive victory on Wednesday, a 4-3 triumph as short road favorites. The Twins had multiple opportunities after tying the game at 2-2, but failed to score with the bases loaded in the sixth, two runners on in the eighth, and the game-tying run on in the ninth. Kansas City has won four of the last five meetings at Target Field, while beating Minnesota nine of 12 times this season.
Pitching notes: James Shields is listed as a heavy road favorite today, as the Royals are 3-3 in his six starts as away 'chalk.' The righty dominated the White Sox in his previous outing by tossing seven scoreless innings in a 5-1 victory, as the Royals own a 9-2 record in Shields' last 11 trips to the mound.
Scott Diamond pitched well in his previous outing as a $2.20 road underdog at Seattle, limiting the Mariners to five hits and one earned run in 6.2 innings of work as the Twins edged the M's in extra-innings, 3-2. However, Minnesota hasn't had great luck with Diamond on the mound in the role of a home underdog, posting an 0-6 record.
Thursday's MLB National League Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
New York Mets at Miami Marlins (+155, 6.5)
Pitching stat: Marlins starting pitchers have allowed three or fewer earned runs in 34 of the past 39 games.
Batting stat: Mets 2B Daniel Murphy went 0-for-3 Wednesday, only the third time in 22 games he has gone without a hit.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 80s with partly cloudy skies and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms with winds blowing east at 9 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 45-21-5 in the last 71 meetings in Miami.
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-112, 8)
Pitching stat: Cardinals RHP Joe Kelly is 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in 14 career innings against the Pirates.
Batting stat: St. Louis has lost a season-worst seven games and has tallied just 10 runs during the skid.
Weather: Temperatures in the low 70s with a 40 percent chance of showers and winds blowing WNW at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Pirates are 23-6 in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Cardinals are 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (-111, 7.5)
Pitching stat: The Phillies have scored two or fewer runs in nine of LHP Cole Hamels’ 22 starts.
Batting stat: San Francisco Pablo Sandoval left Wednesday’s game with a bruised right heel and is listed as day-to-day.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with an 86 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing SSW at 5 mph.
Key betting stat: Over is 9-4 in Phillies last 13 games as a favorite.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves (-220, 8)
Pitching stat: Braves RHP Julio Teheran defeated the Rockies in his only start against them, yielding one run and eight hits in seven innings of a 10-2 victory in Colorado on April 23 when it was 30 degrees at game time.
Batting stat: Atlanta 3B Chris Johnson recorded his sixth straight multi-hit game Wednesday to increase his NL-best batting average to .342. Johnson is 16-for-35 during his nine-game hitting streak.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing NW at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Rockies are 4-17 in the last 21 meetings.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (+137, 8)
Pitching stat: Dodgers RHP Ricky Nolasco is 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) versus the Cubs.
Batting stat: Cubs 1B Anthony Rizzo was 6-for-14 in the series versus Milwaukee and tied his career high with his 15th homer.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with a 46 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blow SW at 11 mph.
Key betting stat: Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series.
Thursday's MLB American League Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-140, 6.5)
Pitching stat: Chicago LHP Chris has dropped eight of his last nine decisions, a byproduct of receiving the least run support of any qualified starter in the majors (2.63 runs per start).
Batting stat: Players on Chicago's current roster are hitting just .221 in 289 at-bats against Indians RHP Justin Masterson.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 21 percent chance of rain and winds blowing WNW at 9 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 11-5 in Indians' last 16 overall.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (+136, 7.5)
Pitching stat: Royals RHP James Shields has been the victim of poor run support in his first year with Kansas City, as he has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven losses and eight of his 10 no-decisions.
Batting stat: The Royals improved to 10-2 since the All-Star break and 9-3 against Minnesota this season, hitting .295 with 12 home runs versus the Twins.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing WNW at 7 mph.
Key betting stat: Royals are 16-5 in their last 21 games as favorites.
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles (-260, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Houston RHP Jordan Lyles, who last won on June 18, is 0-3 while yielding at least four earned runs in five of his last six outings.
Batting stat: Orioles slugger Chris Davis has struck out in a franchise-high 24 consecutive games.
Weather: Temperatures in the high 70s with an 80 percent chance of thundershowers and winds blowing SW at 2 mph.
Key betting stat: Astros are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Baltimore.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-109, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez is 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts versus Boston.
Batting stat: Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia homered and drove in three runs in each of the last two games - the first time in his career he has registered back-to-back games with at least three RBIs.
Weather: Temperatures in the mid 70s with a 44 percent chance of showers and winds blowing south at 8 mph.
Key betting stat: Under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-108)
Pitching stat: Toronto RHP Josh Johnson looks to snap a five-start losing streak.
Batting stat: Los Angeles OF Josh Hamilton is 5-for-11 in his last three games while hitting safely in six of his last seven contests.
Weather: Temperatures low 70s with clear skies and winds blowing SSW 6 mph.
Key betting stat: The Blue Jays have won 12 of 17 contests against AL West representatives this season.
Arizona Diamondback at Texas Rangers (-192, 8.5)
Pitching stat: Texas RHP Yu Darvish matched a career high with 14 strikeouts versus Arizona on May 27 but allowed four runs on seven hits in 7 2/3 innings to settle for a no-decision.
Batting stat: Texas SS Elvis Andrus is riding a 13-game hitting streak, the longest active run in the majors.
Weather: Temperatures will tip 100 degrees with a 14 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing east at 6 mph.
Key betting stat: Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last eight interleague road games.
MLB Odds and Picks – Hernandez the value play at Fenway
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com
It’s not every day that you can get one of the best pitchers in baseball at plus-money.
Yet that’s the situation for today’s Mariners/Red Sox game, where Seattle and Felix Hernandez (11-4, 2.34) are +105 on the road at some Las Vegas sports books. While Boston has taken the first two games of the three-game series, it’s hard to overlook the fact they’ll be facing the American League leader in ERA, who is arguably having an even better year than his 2010 campaign that netted Hernandez the Cy Young. He’s been on fire lately, too, allowing two runs or less in his last six starts and allowing a total of just one run in his last three outings.
The Red Sox counter with Ryan Dempster (6-8, 4.24 ERA), who is not in the same stratosphere as Hernandez. In his last three starts, Dempster has allowed 14 runs, though only nine of them were earned. He did not get out of the sixth inning in any of those starts and has not gone seven innings since June 14.
While the Red Sox are the better team, the advantage on the mound for today’s contest is clear. And bettors are catching on – as of noon ET, it’s still possible to get Mariners +105 at some bet shops, but others have moved the line to +100 and a few have made the Mariners the slight favorite at -105.
Pirates go for rare sweep
If there were any remaining doubts about the Pittsburgh Pirates, their play over the first four games of their series with the St. Louis Cardinals should have erased them. The Pirates took all four of those contests and go for a rare five-game sweep in tonight’s contest.
The Pirates’ starter tonight, Charlie Morton (3-2, 3.59 ERA), has pitched well in his eight games since coming off the disabled list, allowing more than three earned runs just once over that span. He's posted a 2.57 ERA over the 14 innings during that stretch that have been at home. Joe Kelly (1-3, 3.44), who is on the mound for St. Louis today, has pitched just as well, especially on the road, where he owns a 2.90 ERA.
What tilts us in the Pirates direction, beyond the fact they’ve taken four straight from the Cardinals and that St. Louis is without their best player, Yadier Molina, is the Pirates home record. Pittsburgh has done most of its damage at home this season with a 36-18 mark at PNC Park, compared to a 29-24 record on the road.
Giants and Phillies play rubber game
The Giants and Phillies have exchanged victories, Philadelphia taking the opener, 7-3, with San Francisco winning Wednesday’s contest, 9-2. Today, they’ll meet to decide the series in a matchup involving two star pitchers who have not lived up to expectations this year.
Cole Hamels (4-13, 4.09 ERA) has been a disappointment in 22 starts so far this season. There really isn’t a great deal wrong with Hamels’ peripherals, but he has struggled at home, posting a 4.52 ERA at Citizen’s Bank park, compared to a 3.68 on the road. The culprit is a higher home run rate at home.
Matt Cain (6-6, 4.79 ERA) has been even worse overall, but like Hamels, his peripherals indicate he’s deserved better. Cain hasn’t been great anywhere this season, but he has been better on the road, with a 4.27 ERA compared to a 5.26 at home.
With two pitchers capable of greatness but also prone to struggles, we’ll take the plus-money with Cain and the Giants.
Thursday's Selections:
Mariners (Hernandez) +105 at Red Sox
Pirates (Morton) -115 vs. Cardinals
Giants (Cain) +105 at Phillies
Second-half record: 31-19 (+1,436)